You don’t want to piss off the Small Sample Size God’s. They
can be real sticks-in-the-mud if you’re not careful. They can see past
All-Stars’ ERA hang around 5 while still letting them post career high in K's/9. At
the same time, another All-Star quality pitcher can see his ERA sit at nearly
1.60, while posting a career low in K/9. (Obviously K/9 isn’t everything, but
it’s an interesting metric to show how unhittable, or not, these guys are).
So pour out some of that liquor you have to drink to get
through a Bob & F.P. broadcast for the sake of Gio Gonzalez’s poor start,
and maybe take a swig or three to believe Jordan Zimmermann’s.
Buzzed? Good. You’re doing it right.
Over these one-and-a-half months we have learned quite a bit
about the Washington Nationals. They are good; they just aren’t as perfect like we
thought. Turns out Danny Espinosa is expendable, Anthony Rendon isn’t ready,
Ryan Zimmerman isn’t healthy, but B.J. Upton is still terrible (#TeamSpan).
The top three pitchers on the Nationals staff (3.40 ERA, 4th
in the MLB as of May 13th), Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez and
Jordan Zimmermann, have pitched anywhere from Cy Young level to “meh” so far in
2013, a major reason the squad is only 21-19 when everyone thought they should
be 40-0 and on their way to 162-0. Seriously, Nationals’ starters: what gives?
Small sample size on the 2013 season recognized, I had a
thought the other day during Jordan Zimmermann’s win against the Tigers May 8th
(and all my thoughts end up on this blog…you’re welcome). I wondered if Jordan
Zimmermann was the best pitcher on the Nats staff.
Like better than Stras
or Gio?
Yeah.
So I took a look at the numbers.
Stephen Strasburg:
Popular opinion, funded somewhat tangentially through common
sense, suggests that Stephen Strasburg is the Nats best starter. He was their
No. 1 pick not five years ago, and contributed mightily to the rebuilding
efforts of a franchise that finished in last place two seasons in a row only
four years ago.
We know about Strasburg. He throws hard. He racks up
strikeouts like Tiger Woods racks up trophies. But this season something has
been off.
He had Tommy John surgery not too long ago, so his arm
should be strong and any doubts he may have had about his delivery and the toll
it would take on his body should have evaporated after his remarkable 2012
season. Plus his average fastball velocity is still formidable, 95.6, a number that is down from
2010 when he broke in but consistent since his surgery (all statistics courtesy of FanGraphs).
Strasburg’s struggles this season, if I may be so brash as
to call them that, seem to boil down to his inability to get outs when he needs
them.
Let us consider for a moment Strasburg’s latest outing, May11th against the Chicago Cubs. Through 4 innings of work he had
thrown 53 pitches, retired 11 in a row and struck out 7. He was cruising like Florida Georgia Line. Then, after two quick outs in the 5th inning the wheels came off. Suddenly
he couldn’t find the plate. When he did, opposing pitcher Edwin Jackson roped a
two-run double off the centerfield fence. The Cubs ended up adding two more
runs on what ended up becoming a four-run, 42 pitch disaster of an inning.
The peripheral statistics for Strasburg in 2013 are in line
with his career averages. His ERA is good; his BAA (batting average against) is
low. Yet, he is 1-5 in eight starts. What gives?
It’s the fastball. Pitchers, Strasburg being one of them,
generally throw multiple variations of a fastball. There’s the four-seam
fastball (hard and flat), the two-seam (breaks in to a right handed batter
thrown by a right handed pitcher), the cut-fastball (breaks away from
righty’s), the split-fingered fastball (breaks down), and the sinker (which
“sinks,” not as extreme as the split-finger). Strasburg throws the four-seam
and the two-seam. In 2013, however, he barely throws the two-seam. Only 9.3% of the
time when compared to a career 13.1%. The result of this is two-fold. One,
hitters looking for a fastball are likely to see one that is flat (Translation: hittable). On the flip side, however, his changeup has become a much more
effective pitch. It keeps hitters off balance, forcing them to respect its
movement and speed differential, which isn’t easy considering his fastball can
top at 98-99.
But this season the changeup hasn’t been any more effective
than it has been in the past, while the fastball has seen a sharp decline in
value. In 2013 Strasburg’s changeup has generated about 3.2 runs above average,
right in line with his career average, while his fastball has declined to -2.8
(in 2012 it was 4.6). Potentially more alarming is the reduced effectiveness of
his curveball. Last season it generated an other-worldly 9 runs above average
while the 2013 number is only 0.9. The 0.9 is more closely aligned with his 2010 figure
(2.6—granted in 12 starts) so it is difficult to determine whether his
curveball is actually a dominant pitch that he has mastered, or if 2012 was an
anomaly.
Along with the decreasing effectiveness of his pitches (yikes),
Strasburg has had issues pitching with runners on base. His strand rate of
66.7% is low for him, indicating his struggles getting outs when he needs them.
Normally I would be confident that this percentage would revert back to his
career norm if not for his low strike out totals. His 9.30 K/9 is well off his
2010 and 2012 numbers. And the fact that his pitches are not as
effective as they have been in the past does not predict future strikeout supremacy. If the best way
to prevent the other team from scoring is to prevent the other team from
putting bat on ball, Strasburg's declining strikeout rate affords offenses more scoring opportunities.
The real issue for Strasburg has been a lack of run support:
15 runs in eight starts. Less than two runs per game. That’s like Tin Lincecum
circa 2011 bad.
If I’m the Nationals, however, I’m getting a little anxious
over Strasburg. With each passing start my fingers are moving closer and closer
to the panic button. I'm less and less certain that Strasburg's struggles are the result of small sample-sizing and have more to do with a tangible decline in effectiveness.
He pitches tonight (May 19th) against the San Diego Padres. Hopefully he shows us something.
Gio Gonzalez:
Gio was closer to the Cy Young last season than was
Strasburg or Zimmermann, and he was undoubtedly the Nats most important
pitcher. He won 21 games in (nearly) 200 innings pitched while both striking
out more hitters and walking fewer batters in the process. It was a magical
season. His struggles this season force one to consider if 2012 was indeed an
anomaly. Like Kirk Lazarus tells us (skip to 4:14), it’s possible that Gio
Gonzalez is all out of the Chris Angel Mindfreak, David Blaine trapdoorhorseshit that was jumping off in 2012. Just a thought.
The K’s are still there for Gio this season. Nearly a career
high of 9.40/9. Problem is, the walks are there too: 4.20/9. Hitters, in fact,
are only seeing pitches inside the strike zone from Gio 39.6% of the time. If
that seems low, that’s because it is.
Like Strasburg, some of Gio’s stats are phenomenal. His .198
BAA and 1.20 WHIP don’t seem to mesh with a pitcher who is 3-2 with a 4.20 ERA.
What we see when we look closer at the numbers is both alarming and lucky.
Gio’s FIP (fielding independent pitching) is 3.75, right about his career
average and what would qualify as league “above average.” His 2.82 last season?
An outlier. He is also serving up taters like a short order cook at a truck
stop. Which, while delicious, is bad pitching. He is giving up one HR per nine innings, while his
HR/Fly Ball(FB) percentage sits at 12.8%. And he hasn’t been disproportionately
unlucky either. His batting average on balls in play, which sits at .284
career, is only .243. Just wait until he hits the hard times. Someone call
Ludacris!
If that weren’t bad enough, Gio’s bread and butter pitch,
that curveball has seen better days. He is throwing it less frequently, 19.8%
to 26.1% career. It’s also been worth -1.4 runs.
The question with Gio, then, is whether he is actually the
pitcher we saw in 2012, or if his Cy Young quality campaign is unsustainable
over the next five, six, seven years? As the sun starts to come out in D.C.
(and I can’t wait, I need sun like Amanda Bynes needs attention) maybe the
Florida born Gio will start to heat up. Right now despite his strong showing against the
Cubs in his last start, I'm not convinced Gio is as dominant of a pitcher as we saw in 2012. But he's not as bad as we've seen here in 2013. He's a strong #2, not an ace. By the end of the year his stats will reflect that.
Jordan Zimmermann:
I imagine as you read this long post (trust me, it took much
longer to write) you got the sense that I was going to gush over J-Zimm. And if
you didn’t, let me make it clear that "gushing" is not my intention here.
If anyone in the MLB is the beneficiary of the Small Sample Size Gods, it’s
Jordan Zimmermann.
He had a good season in 2012: one certainly can’t argue
against 12 wins and a 2.94 ERA. But this season his numbers are unsustainable. (Which annoys me because I own him on my fantasy team...I wonder if Roy Halladay is available?).
Right now he sports a 5.98K/9, a career low, a .230 batting
average on balls in play (BABIP), another career low, and a 1.69 ERA. Why is his hot start unsustainable? He’s not missing any bats and is leaving a ton of guys on base. His 83.3% strand rate is
incredible. And while his 79.3% rate from last year suggests that he certainly
capable of stranding runners on base and from crossing home plate, the percentage
of balls that are put in play is large enough to think that eventually
more will find holes in the defense.
Batters make contact with 91% of J-Zimm’s offerings inside
the strike zone: pitches that more hittable than pitches outside of the zone.
This is problematic for three reasons: First, his first pitch strike rate
is only 58.2%, significantly off his career average. This means that hitters
are swinging during good hitting counts. That means better pitches to hit.
Second, his swinging strike percent is only 7.3%. Hitters are taking swings,
and they aren’t missing. Obviously, there is something to the fact that he is getting soft contact, but eventually big league hitters are going to square these balls up. Third, and touched on earlier, his BABIP is .230.
Career it’s .288 (in 2012: .288). Those balls in play are going to find grass.
It’s only a matter of time.
It’s possible that J-Zimm, in his third “full”
major league season, has learned how to pitch. He may have turned a corner in
his professional development, living up to his potential as a former first round
selection and becoming one of the best pitchers in baseball. There’s also a good chance
that an inordinate amount of luck, and a wink by the Small Sample Size Gods leave him a pitcher
moonlighting as a Cy Young favorite.
The Small Sample Size Gods strike again. Look for Gio to
turn it around (even if it doesn't mean Cy Young) and for Zimmermann to stall out. Pray for the old Strasburg to
return. We’ll need him if we want to finish the rest of the season undefeated.