Washington Nationals Shopping List: Offseason 2013

Hey Nationals Fans, this is what is called the Offseason. You know it because the Redskins do it too. It's a period between when the last game is played in one year and the first game is played in the next year. Baseball does it too, you just haven't noticed because normally you haven't cared. You remember Game 5 and part of you gets sick every time you hear the name Daniel Descalso even if you can't quite remember who that is. But just like with Biggie there is "Life After Death" and it is the offseason. This offseason is going to be exciting because the Nationals are contenders and what they do will have significant impacts on the 2013 season. So, loyal reader, put down that carton of Ben & Jerry's that you have been hate eating every night since the middle of October and pay attention. Things are going to change, and you are going to care. It's going to be like when the Redskins drafted RGIII but like 30x less exciting.

In 2012 the Washington Nationals won the National League East and were the first Chocolate City baseball franchise to make the playoffs since 1933. They did this primarily through pitching, fielding, and timely hitting. Something that the San Francisco Giants perfected in October and, along with shrewd coaching, became the main factors that resulted in them holding up the Commissioners trophy through a confetti storm of biblical proportions.

The Nationals have three glaring question marks in terms of personnel decisions this offseason. Adam Laroche, Edwin Jackson, and Sean Burnett are all free agents this offseason and despite the contribution of each to the Nats playoff push it is conceivable that none will return in 2013.

Sean Burnett has been very effective in his four years with the Nationals as a tough lefty-lefty match-up and an unhittable 7th inning guy this past season. With the recent loss of Michael Gonzalez the Nats are well served to bring Burnett and his 2.38 ERA and 9.1 K's per 9 back to sure up the back end of the bullpen. One of the Nationals keys this offseason is to improve a bullpen that was a strength for much of the season- at least before Tyler Clippard went from "Clip and Save" to "Clipboard." Ryan Madson, formerly of the Reds, is a free agent after missing the entire 2012 season rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. If the Nats decided to replace Gonzalez with him he would add another powerful arm and strikeout pitcher (career 7.8 K's per 9) to one of the best bullpens in baseball. 

The case with Edwin Jackson is the easiest. He will not be returning to the Nats next season. As the teams 5th starter he posted solid numbers, throwing almost 190 innings to go along with 10 wins and a 4.03 ERA. But he was relatively ineffective down the stretch run of the season and had zero business coming into Game 5 of the Cardinals series when he was hit like a pinata in Game 3. He was a very serviceable 5th option for the Nats this season, which is a very nice way of saying that he won't be getting a long-term contract from anybody. The Edwin Jackson: Hired Gun story continues. I say he heads up to Toronto to get knocked around by the Yankees, Sox and O's. The Nationals are going to go after another back of the rotation starter this offseason, and the market has some pretty solid options.

The Adam Laroche question is a little more difficult. We offered him a $13.3 million dollar qualifying offer for one year, something he will likely reject (he has until November 9th) in favor of a long-term contract with the Nationals. Based on what he has said he wants to come back to the Nationals, and the Nationals want him back. He hit .271 with 33 home runs and 100 RBI to go along with a Gold Glove and  was, over the course of the season, undoubtably the Nationals best hitter and was a huge factor in 98 wins and a division crown.

He is going to want a 4 year contract at least, probably somewhere in the $40-60 million dollar price range. Resigning him would keep Bryce in Center, and Morse in Left - though he is clearly a DH forced to wear a glove because he plays in the National League. Might the Nats be better served to let Laroche go, move Morse to First where is limited range is not a serious concern (playing First Base is not that difficult to begin with), and go after an outfielder to play either Center or Left while Bryce plays the other?

For fun let's assume that the Nationals pass on signing Laroche and go after an outfielder and a 5th starter to replace Edwin Jackson. Who are some of the players that might make a difference to whether or not 1500 South Captiol Street sees more playoff baseball next year?

Outfielders first:

Josh Hamilton: 0% chance. There are only a few teams who are going to take a shot with him and it will not be the Nats. Too much baggage for Mike Rizzo to shell out a lengthy and expensive contract. The Nationals have quite a bit of money from the new TV contract but promise to be shrewd with this cash, not just burning this money for the thrill of it. Hamilton to the Brewers or Phillies. This contract is going to be big, and the team that gives it to him will be disappointed.

Michael Bourn: Somewhat likely if Laroche leaves (which is to say like 25% IF). He would get $80-100 million long-term and hit lead off. However, speed is overrated in baseball these days and since Bourn doesn't hit for power or drive in runs this is essentially a $100 million dollar contract for someone who can catch flyballs, cutoff balls in the gap, hit .272, and steal bases(?). Seems a little high for someone who isn't going to decide a lot of games unless he scores a run one someone else's hit. Kinda unlike our current leadoff hitter.

Nick Swisher: I don't this is a reality but it's pretty interesting to think about this kind of fit. He brings a fun-loving personality, has playoff experience, would not end up costing all that much, and is a powerful left handed bat that could easily offset the loss of Laroche. But, if you are going to bring in someone so similar to Laroche why not just keep Laroche? Yeah, sorry Swish. I hear there is a lot to do in Cleveland.

B.J. Upton: This seems likely, if not certain, if the Nats part with Laroche. I already have visions of me cursing at the TV while he strikes out 175 times and does the opposite of hustle. I'm already mad. This fantasy sucks. Hopefully the Phillies sign him.

Torii Hunter: A cheap but experienced seat warmer until Brian Goodwin can contribute? Maybe.

Shin Soo Choo/ Jacoby Ellsbury: Both would have to be traded, and likely for pitching. Ellsbury is a free agent after the 2013 season if the Nats want to make a run for him then. Choo isn't really even worth looking at for the price that the Indians would likely want.  

Pitchers:

Zach Grenkie: The Nationals have the money to do this, should they choose to. They won't. Again like Hamilton there are just too many character issues here. He pitched well after being traded to LAA last year, proving that he could still pitch in the American League. Scouts took notice so the AL is where he will likely stay. Expect a big contract from the Angels or the Rangers as they battle to dethrone the A's as champions of the West. 

Kyle Loshe: He turned 34 one month ago. His last two seasons have been statistical outliers from the rest of his relatively mediocre career where his 4.45 ERA dwarfs the 2.86 and 3.39 he put up in '12 and '11. He is a league average pitcher at best (go ahead and look for yourself) who, with Scott Boras as his agent, is going to ask to be paid like a ace or big-time No. 2. I'm not buying this sudden career transcendence as anything other than a byproduct of the Cardinals ability to take league average pitchers and make them good, and sometimes great. The Nationals should take this money that they don't spend on Loshe and bring in more concerts to Nationals Park. I mean I like The Wallflowers and all but let's bring in some bands that might actually make it worth my while to listen to live free music instead of just pulling up YouTube on my iPhone. No one wants to listen to Big & Rich, not even their parents.

Dan Haren: Clearly the Angels are trying to trade him. The National League is a good fit for him and his skill set (very hittable pitches) because the league lacks powerful offenses. That's the best reason I could think of to justify this move so... let's just move on.

Anibal Sanchez: This would be interesting. I think he stays with the Tigers; they have too much money and are not about to watch their pitching strength up and leave. He would be a good signing for the Nats, just pretty unlikely.

Ryan Dempster: Player A: 10-14 W-L, 4.80 ERA, .271 BAA, 1.448 WHIP, 9.4 H/9, WAR .9
                           Player B: 10-10 W-L, 4.08 ERA, .253 BAA, 1.325 WHIP, 8.9 H/9, WAR 1
                           Player C: 9-10 W-L, 4.41 ERA, .253 BAA, 1.450 WHIP, 8.9 H/9, WAR 1.3
                           Player D: 11-11 W-L, 4.61 ERA, .268 BAA, 1.451 WHIP, 9.4 H/9, WAR 1.3 

          

One of these is the career 162 (33 start) avg of Ryan Dempster. Does it really matter which one he is? (He's not B). He did pitch well last year with the Cubs before having all chances at getting a large contract this offseason destroyed in the plains of west Texas. He would be cheap, and given his successes last year the upside here is pretty good. Of these pitchers this is the strongest move that the Nationals can make.

Scott Baker: He missed 2012 with Tommy John and the Twins declined his 2013 option as a result. He would be available to pitch from day one and puts up numbers that are best described as E- Jaxian. This is sort of a last option kind of deal. Everyone else in the bar went home with someone else and you are just staring down someone you really don't want but will take anyway because some is better than none. Scott Baker is last call.

At this point all we can do is wait and see what Laroche wants, and then pray that we don't end up with B.J. Upton. No one should have to suffer like that. So yeah Nationals fans, this is it. Get ready to Wang Chung for the next 4 1/2 months.