Washington Nationals Shopping List: Offseason 2013

Hey Nationals Fans, this is what is called the Offseason. You know it because the Redskins do it too. It's a period between when the last game is played in one year and the first game is played in the next year. Baseball does it too, you just haven't noticed because normally you haven't cared. You remember Game 5 and part of you gets sick every time you hear the name Daniel Descalso even if you can't quite remember who that is. But just like with Biggie there is "Life After Death" and it is the offseason. This offseason is going to be exciting because the Nationals are contenders and what they do will have significant impacts on the 2013 season. So, loyal reader, put down that carton of Ben & Jerry's that you have been hate eating every night since the middle of October and pay attention. Things are going to change, and you are going to care. It's going to be like when the Redskins drafted RGIII but like 30x less exciting.

In 2012 the Washington Nationals won the National League East and were the first Chocolate City baseball franchise to make the playoffs since 1933. They did this primarily through pitching, fielding, and timely hitting. Something that the San Francisco Giants perfected in October and, along with shrewd coaching, became the main factors that resulted in them holding up the Commissioners trophy through a confetti storm of biblical proportions.

The Nationals have three glaring question marks in terms of personnel decisions this offseason. Adam Laroche, Edwin Jackson, and Sean Burnett are all free agents this offseason and despite the contribution of each to the Nats playoff push it is conceivable that none will return in 2013.

Sean Burnett has been very effective in his four years with the Nationals as a tough lefty-lefty match-up and an unhittable 7th inning guy this past season. With the recent loss of Michael Gonzalez the Nats are well served to bring Burnett and his 2.38 ERA and 9.1 K's per 9 back to sure up the back end of the bullpen. One of the Nationals keys this offseason is to improve a bullpen that was a strength for much of the season- at least before Tyler Clippard went from "Clip and Save" to "Clipboard." Ryan Madson, formerly of the Reds, is a free agent after missing the entire 2012 season rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. If the Nats decided to replace Gonzalez with him he would add another powerful arm and strikeout pitcher (career 7.8 K's per 9) to one of the best bullpens in baseball. 

The case with Edwin Jackson is the easiest. He will not be returning to the Nats next season. As the teams 5th starter he posted solid numbers, throwing almost 190 innings to go along with 10 wins and a 4.03 ERA. But he was relatively ineffective down the stretch run of the season and had zero business coming into Game 5 of the Cardinals series when he was hit like a pinata in Game 3. He was a very serviceable 5th option for the Nats this season, which is a very nice way of saying that he won't be getting a long-term contract from anybody. The Edwin Jackson: Hired Gun story continues. I say he heads up to Toronto to get knocked around by the Yankees, Sox and O's. The Nationals are going to go after another back of the rotation starter this offseason, and the market has some pretty solid options.

The Adam Laroche question is a little more difficult. We offered him a $13.3 million dollar qualifying offer for one year, something he will likely reject (he has until November 9th) in favor of a long-term contract with the Nationals. Based on what he has said he wants to come back to the Nationals, and the Nationals want him back. He hit .271 with 33 home runs and 100 RBI to go along with a Gold Glove and  was, over the course of the season, undoubtably the Nationals best hitter and was a huge factor in 98 wins and a division crown.

He is going to want a 4 year contract at least, probably somewhere in the $40-60 million dollar price range. Resigning him would keep Bryce in Center, and Morse in Left - though he is clearly a DH forced to wear a glove because he plays in the National League. Might the Nats be better served to let Laroche go, move Morse to First where is limited range is not a serious concern (playing First Base is not that difficult to begin with), and go after an outfielder to play either Center or Left while Bryce plays the other?

For fun let's assume that the Nationals pass on signing Laroche and go after an outfielder and a 5th starter to replace Edwin Jackson. Who are some of the players that might make a difference to whether or not 1500 South Captiol Street sees more playoff baseball next year?

Outfielders first:

Josh Hamilton: 0% chance. There are only a few teams who are going to take a shot with him and it will not be the Nats. Too much baggage for Mike Rizzo to shell out a lengthy and expensive contract. The Nationals have quite a bit of money from the new TV contract but promise to be shrewd with this cash, not just burning this money for the thrill of it. Hamilton to the Brewers or Phillies. This contract is going to be big, and the team that gives it to him will be disappointed.

Michael Bourn: Somewhat likely if Laroche leaves (which is to say like 25% IF). He would get $80-100 million long-term and hit lead off. However, speed is overrated in baseball these days and since Bourn doesn't hit for power or drive in runs this is essentially a $100 million dollar contract for someone who can catch flyballs, cutoff balls in the gap, hit .272, and steal bases(?). Seems a little high for someone who isn't going to decide a lot of games unless he scores a run one someone else's hit. Kinda unlike our current leadoff hitter.

Nick Swisher: I don't this is a reality but it's pretty interesting to think about this kind of fit. He brings a fun-loving personality, has playoff experience, would not end up costing all that much, and is a powerful left handed bat that could easily offset the loss of Laroche. But, if you are going to bring in someone so similar to Laroche why not just keep Laroche? Yeah, sorry Swish. I hear there is a lot to do in Cleveland.

B.J. Upton: This seems likely, if not certain, if the Nats part with Laroche. I already have visions of me cursing at the TV while he strikes out 175 times and does the opposite of hustle. I'm already mad. This fantasy sucks. Hopefully the Phillies sign him.

Torii Hunter: A cheap but experienced seat warmer until Brian Goodwin can contribute? Maybe.

Shin Soo Choo/ Jacoby Ellsbury: Both would have to be traded, and likely for pitching. Ellsbury is a free agent after the 2013 season if the Nats want to make a run for him then. Choo isn't really even worth looking at for the price that the Indians would likely want.  

Pitchers:

Zach Grenkie: The Nationals have the money to do this, should they choose to. They won't. Again like Hamilton there are just too many character issues here. He pitched well after being traded to LAA last year, proving that he could still pitch in the American League. Scouts took notice so the AL is where he will likely stay. Expect a big contract from the Angels or the Rangers as they battle to dethrone the A's as champions of the West. 

Kyle Loshe: He turned 34 one month ago. His last two seasons have been statistical outliers from the rest of his relatively mediocre career where his 4.45 ERA dwarfs the 2.86 and 3.39 he put up in '12 and '11. He is a league average pitcher at best (go ahead and look for yourself) who, with Scott Boras as his agent, is going to ask to be paid like a ace or big-time No. 2. I'm not buying this sudden career transcendence as anything other than a byproduct of the Cardinals ability to take league average pitchers and make them good, and sometimes great. The Nationals should take this money that they don't spend on Loshe and bring in more concerts to Nationals Park. I mean I like The Wallflowers and all but let's bring in some bands that might actually make it worth my while to listen to live free music instead of just pulling up YouTube on my iPhone. No one wants to listen to Big & Rich, not even their parents.

Dan Haren: Clearly the Angels are trying to trade him. The National League is a good fit for him and his skill set (very hittable pitches) because the league lacks powerful offenses. That's the best reason I could think of to justify this move so... let's just move on.

Anibal Sanchez: This would be interesting. I think he stays with the Tigers; they have too much money and are not about to watch their pitching strength up and leave. He would be a good signing for the Nats, just pretty unlikely.

Ryan Dempster: Player A: 10-14 W-L, 4.80 ERA, .271 BAA, 1.448 WHIP, 9.4 H/9, WAR .9
                           Player B: 10-10 W-L, 4.08 ERA, .253 BAA, 1.325 WHIP, 8.9 H/9, WAR 1
                           Player C: 9-10 W-L, 4.41 ERA, .253 BAA, 1.450 WHIP, 8.9 H/9, WAR 1.3
                           Player D: 11-11 W-L, 4.61 ERA, .268 BAA, 1.451 WHIP, 9.4 H/9, WAR 1.3 

          

One of these is the career 162 (33 start) avg of Ryan Dempster. Does it really matter which one he is? (He's not B). He did pitch well last year with the Cubs before having all chances at getting a large contract this offseason destroyed in the plains of west Texas. He would be cheap, and given his successes last year the upside here is pretty good. Of these pitchers this is the strongest move that the Nationals can make.

Scott Baker: He missed 2012 with Tommy John and the Twins declined his 2013 option as a result. He would be available to pitch from day one and puts up numbers that are best described as E- Jaxian. This is sort of a last option kind of deal. Everyone else in the bar went home with someone else and you are just staring down someone you really don't want but will take anyway because some is better than none. Scott Baker is last call.

At this point all we can do is wait and see what Laroche wants, and then pray that we don't end up with B.J. Upton. No one should have to suffer like that. So yeah Nationals fans, this is it. Get ready to Wang Chung for the next 4 1/2 months. 

Redskins-Panthers Preview: Or The Case Against Cam Newton

I knew exactly how I was going to start this article. I was going to compare Cam Newton to someone other than RGIII. I was going to show Tebow's stats and how similar they were to Newton's. I was going to say that Newton is a lot like Homeland’s Carrie Mathison in that they are both extremely talented in their line of work but their craziness hinders much of this natural ability. Each even has their own way of coping with their fatal flaw: Carrie cries (like all the time), and Cam likes to self name verb with the best of them. It’s going to be a thing, you have to trust it.

Give 'em Hell, Mike

But nothing felt right. I wanted to avoid comparing him to RGIII because, well, everyone is already doing that. Obviously the comparisons are there: they are both high draft selections, they are both black, and they are both mobile quarterbacks, but really that is where the comparisons should end because they both play different styles of football.

Griffin is a leader, someone who says all the right things at his press conferences and keeps a very even demeanor. He is a dual-threat quarterback in every sense of the term, but a thrower first- even with the Vick-like ability to do this. He is taller than Vick, but is by no means physically imposing, necessitating an avoidance of hard hits. He has "plus" arm strength, but also has shown the ability to lead the league in completion percentage (that is, if his receivers learn to catch the ball). After eight games RGIII looks like the real deal, worthy of the draft picks the Redskins mortgaged to get him from the Rams. The problem is that after eight games last year we were saying the same things about Cam Newton. And now, to be blunt, we're not.

This is what we are saying: Cam Newton is a punk. He is built like Tim Tebow and can probably bench press one and a half Robert Griffin's, but he can't complete two passes in a row. He made the Pro Bowl last season but has played... poorly this season. If the Panthers continue to lose, especially in a similar fashion, his press conferences after games will become required viewing. And not because he gives a great interview. Newton is a freak athlete but his quarterbacking skills are about as raw as a plate of tuna tartare- but nowhere near as delicious. He has a strong arm, but ranks 28th among quarterbacks in completion percentage; he has only thrown 5 touchdown passes on the season- slightly better than Ryan Tannehill (4) and John Skelton (1)- while also throwing 8 picks. To say that he has not played at the elite level of a Pro Bowl quarterback is an understatement. Mike Vick is outplaying him, and Vick is about to lose his job.

To make matters worse for himself, Cam Newton sulks. And it has become so frequent that he is challenging the Internet to create a new meme to commemorate his boyish charm immaturity, and they have accepted. You see, the Internet is a magical place where like-minded Panthers fans can come together and voice their collective displeasure at their hometown team- or at least the 8 or 9 people who care about football and aren't just trying to remember the name of the Plumlee who goes to Duke (Mason is a senior, but Marshall is only a freshman. Four more years! Four more years!). Earlier this season the Internet decided that Robert Griffin was worthy of having a thing, but, unlike Newton, for positive reasons. See, look it's official.

It's funny because it's (probably) true

RGIII is a positive influence on his team; he plays hard, but smart; he actually acts as the leader of his offense instead of just being its best player, and he does and says all the right things. He understands that being a high draft pick does not entitle him to anything, in fact, it necessitates hard work. From what we have seen of Cam Newton, he doesn't appear to understand these things. This season he has played to the level of a below-average NFL quarterback and led his Panthers team to one win through seven games. His Panthers find ways to lose games (see: Bears, Chicago) and instead of accepting that HIS TEAM did not play well enough to win, he points fingers at teammates. It seems reasonable enough that we can point to the "Pay for Play" scandal that marred his season at Auburn and say that he is not mature enough to be a dependable leader in the NFL. But since no one actually knows what is going on in Cam Newton's head other than Cam Newton, all this speculation is, well, speculation. The facts are that Cam Newton has not improved his quarterback play from last year to this year. His legs seem to be working fine- he has 310 yards, 6.1 yards per carry- but he is nowhere near the pace of his somewhat unsustainable 14 rushing TD's last year and has fumbled thrice, one more than all of last year. His accuracy is down, and his 8 INT's put him in the bottom quarter of the league, but the statistic that tells the most about his struggles this season has been QBR. Sidebar: QBR, if you don't know it or understand it, is the greatest metric to measure quarterback performance other than wins (in my opinion). Out of 34 who qualify, Cam Newton ranks 30th in the league. In comparison last year, in his Pro Bowl season, his QBR ranked 17th. This is a metric that would suggest that Cam Newton is nothing better than a league average quarterback unless he can run for 700 yards and 14 TD's to compensate. In a league that has become increasingly pass heavy, that fact that Cam Newton struggles to remain average seems like a significant problem.

If all this Cam Newton trashing seems excessive, it's because it is. Suffice it to say that Robert Griffin III and Cam Newton are different players, something the country will come to realize Sunday afternoon.

On to the game. I am inclined to say that all the Redskins need to do is show up and the Panthers will find a way to lose this game themselves, but it feels as though more should probably be said. The Redskins have a porous defense this year, allowing the 5th most points, and the most passing yards touchdowns. We are going to have to start calling this unit "The Ozone Layer" they are so full of holes. But, like the ozone, it's not all bad. They are significantly better against the run where they rank 21st in rush yards allowed. On the other hand, the Panthers defense is middling. They rank near the middle of the league in every relevant defensive category, possibly foreshadowing a high scoring, offense driven game. Cam Newton is going to have to show up and beat the Redskins through the air for the Panthers to have a chance in this game, which means, for us Redskins fans, we like our chances.

For the Redskins its all about the defense. Can they finish a game? The team has been in position to win games but has fallen short on multiple occasions. That Giants game is still not something we speak about. The injury bug has hit this unit- Brian Orakpo, Adam Carriker- and they have certainly played to the level of their personnel, but if ever there was a game where they can take advantage of an opposing offense this is it. The Panthers are reeling and Cam Newton is struggling, but the team is more talented than their 1-6 record suggests. Look for them to be able to score some points. Ultimately though, RGIII is going to have a monster day. After playing the Steelers last week, the Panthers defense is going to look like a Big East team and the Redskins are going to fly around the field. Plus, its the Panthers. You know that Cam Newton's team is going to implode and he is going to point fingers at anybody but himself. And, most importantly, Newtoning is going to become a thing. You just have to trust it.

WASHINGTON (-3.5) over Carolina
Washington 31 Carolina 17

Top 5 Reasons Why I am Excited for the 2012-2013 Washington Wizards

Get well soon,  John!

Hi. Thanks for visiting. Since you clicked on this I can assume that you enjoy basketball and even may enjoy Washington Wizards' basketball. This enjoyment of basketball is good too because it will make the slow and painful descent of the NFL easier to swallow.

But the chances are that you don't enjoy Washington Wizards basketball. You might be a FAN of the Wizards but since The New Year Hangover of 2010, when the Shots Weren't Heard Around The World, being a Wizards fan has been difficult. The team deemed this incident "unacceptable," an understatement if there ever was one and have since attempted to scrub away all the blood shed in recent years. The Wizards traded two of the original big three, Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison, for six players no longer employed by the team. They tried to tank, and succeeded, ending with the 5th-best-odds of obtaining the Number 1 pick and ultimately winning the Draft Lottery. Wizards fans everywhere cheered when John Wall was picked. Then, it seemed, things started to fall into place: we picked up Kirk Hinrich and a pick (Kevin Seraphin) from the Bulls; we dumped Gilbert Arenas for Rashard Lewis (more on this later); dumped Hinrich for Jordan Crawford, and a pick (Chris Singleton) from the Hawks; and unveiled pretty awesome new jerseys.

That was two years ago. Then came last year. The John Wall and JaVale McGee Show that never happened. The team still had more clowns this side of a Bryce Harper post-game interview, and they needed to go. Exit: Flip Saunders, JaVale McGee, Ronny Turiaf, Nick Young, Rashard Lewis, and Andray Blatche. Enter:  Randy Wittman, Nenê, Emeka Okafor, Trevor Ariza, Bradley Beal, A.J. Price, Jannero Pargo, and Martell Webster.

This year we have some talent. We have some of the pieces. We have John Wall and Bradley Beal in the backcourt, a tandem of top picks more Washingtonians are down to get behind than Obama/Biden or Romney/Ryan. We have veteran role players poised to eat up big minutes and contribute both offensively and defensively. But we are missing a piece, and until we get that piece we will remain bad to mediocre. But, on to the positives.

Without further ado here is the Top 5:


Honorable Mention: Eva Kodouskova
This is Jan Vesely's girlfriend. The internet almost broke after he was drafted two years ago. She was left off from the original Top 5 list but after further thought I realized how much more excited I am to see her sitting on the sidelines, dissecting Jan's game play- she is the center for a Czech professional women's basketball team (VS Praha if you actually care)- than any of the other 5 reasons I picked. But because this post is about basketball, and not my personal taste for Eastern Bloc women, I felt the need to relegate her to Honorable Mention status. Glad I got that one off my chest.

5. No Rashard Lewis, No Andray Blatche

MJ no longer walking through that door

I hear you smiling. Being between a rock and a hard place as the Wizards have been for the past years has sucked much of the fun out of watching this team. This year both of these guys are out of town; Blatche to Brooklyn and Lewis to Miami, giving Wizards fans two big reasons to celebrate. Andray Blatche left the Wizards with a career line of 9.9PPG, 5.4RPG, while shooting 45% from the field, which doesn't paint him as a terrible player. And to be honest his 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 campaigns showed us some of Blatche's potential, as he posted career highs in every relevant category other than games played and blocks. Then the lockout happened and he no longer treated his body as if it belonged to a professional athlete. He became unusable, dogging it nearly every single night and giving less effort than Ben Affleck acting career from 1997-2008. Getting benched for "lack of conditioning," usually results in a non-amicable separation, and that's essentially what happened. He got kicked out of the Wizards bar- he didn't have to go home but he certainly couldn't stay in Washington. If you are a professional athlete you should at least invest in a Bow-Flex. Or a stationary bike, those take very little effort.

The Rashard Lewis problem was simple. The Wizards traded for him and his untradable contract to unload Arenas and his untradable contract, and that whole gun thing. But then Lewis stunk up the gym.  An almost 39% career three point shooter in his 12 seasons prior to joining the Wizards, Lewis shot 34% and 24% (before a knee injury ended his season in February) in the two seasons he spent in Chocolate City- both bottom 5 career percentages. Lewis, always a guy who could fill it up and stroke threes became a black hole and a defensive liability, but was still under contract on his backloaded six-year $118 million dollar contract. You can debate the acquisitions of Okafor and Ariza, especially considering the size and lengths of their contracts (together they are owed 43 million over the next two years) but their defensive pedigrees make them especially interesting considering the Wizards defensive inefficiencies in previous years.

4. Randy Wittman
The Washington Post calls Wittman a "hard-nosed taskmaster who isn't afraid to hurt players' feelings to get the desired results." This is no longer the Gilbert Arenas Era Wizards, this isn't even the Cinnamon Challenge Wizards, this is a Wizards team built on hard work, defensive intensity, rebounding, and hustle. All clichés, but all true enough. This is a team destined to go through some growing pains, sure, but Wittman has said all the right things and all the goofballs are gone so there is reason to hope he can stick around for a few years. Hopefully he will be popular enough that if he offered 10 free burrito's he could give away more than one.

3. John Wall
This one felt like a cop out because John Wall is obviously the most important player for the 2012-2013 Wizards. Maybe I could have picked someone more under the radar. But then it was obvious that he should be included because he is the face of the franchise that is frantically rebuilding to appease him. He is entering his third year in the NBA after being selected with the No. 1 overall pick, so expectations at this point in his career are sky high for Mr. Wall. Assuming the stress injury in his knee heals on schedule and he can return to the lineup before December he gives the Wizards a special kind of talent. His averages in PPG, RPG, APG and TO's last year were nearly identical to his rookie season, but what has Wizards fans excited, or depressed, depending on your personality, is his shooting numbers. He shot 42.3% from the field last year, which is really not that good for a player of his supposed caliber. But it is markedly better than his 40.9% as a rookie. He has always been an effective finisher around the basket, and if he can improve his midrange shooting he gives this team the offense it desperately needs. His three point shooting is another matter entirely. He does not take that many threes, but when he does he misses them. He is Dos Equis Least Effective Three Point Shooter, but for the Wizards to have any chance at relevancy this season he has become a competent shooter. The Wizards are starting to put some pieces around him, if John Wall is destined to take the leap and become a Top-25 player in the NBA, this is the year. But remember, before any of this in order to ball like Wall you gotta do the dance.

2. Big Men
The names "JaVale McGee," "Andray Blatche," and "Rashard Lewis" give Wizards fans PTSD. Or, if they don't they should. Flashbacks of missed three pointers, missed ally-oops, ill-advised ally-oops, terrible shot selection, cinnamon challenges, YouTube videos filled with lowlights, and being too out of shape to play in games, dance in my head like visions of sugarplums. This years team has Okafor, and his career double-double. There's Trevor Ariza who matches his defensive intensity with strong three point shooting and a strong ability to finish. Trevor Booker, the 6-8 banger who shoots 54% from the field, who crashes the defensive glass like an all-star, and is built like a brick house, promises to give the Wizards quality minutes off the bench (or starter until Nenê comes back). Speaking of Nenê, if he can stay healthy- plantar fasciitis is known to linger- will give the Wizards a veteran inside force who can grab rebounds and who has a much better offensive game than Booker. Jan Vesely was one of the single most improved Wizards over the course of last season and there is reason to believe that he can continue to get better and cash in on his considerable potential. He shoots a high percentage, 54%, can grab a few rebounds and plays high energy defense. If he can curb some of the dumber fouls he makes and can stay on the court for longer periods of time he has the potential to mature into a key piece moving forward and top five scoring option.

Among the Wizards big men the one who I am most excited for is Kevin Seraphin. He is 22 and is entering his third season in the NBA after being taken in the first round. He played for France in the Olympics over the summer, and though they didn't medal or really come close to doing so, his excelling on a team with NBA guys like Tony Parker, Boris Diaw, and Nicholas Batum should bode well for his confidence coming in to the season. Seraphin played in 57 games last year and put up 7.9PPG, 4.9RPG, and 1.3BPG, all statistics he more or less doubled from his rookie season. When you look at the 21 games he started on the season, however, the numbers become more impressive: 14.3PPG, 7.3RPG, and 1.8BPG. With Nenê out for the foreseeable future, Seraphin seems likely to poach his minutes and cash in on his impressive potential.

1. Bradley Beal

The future is bright. 

This one was obvious as soon as John Wall clocked in at 3. Bradley Beal was the third pick in the NBA Draft- a draft they tell is one of the deepest in memory- and, with the Wizards' lack of depth at the guard spots, will be expected to contribute right away. This is a guy whose shooting ability has been compared to Ray Allen on many an occasion, who, at 6-3 pulled down 6.7 rebounds a game in college, and who doesn't need to dominate the ball to put up numbers (shout out Nick Young!). He and Wall create a back court so promising, so young, that it's almost hard not to be excited about this potential duo. All they need is a nickname. He will likely struggle at the beginning of the season, with Wall's early injury forcing him to contribute heavily from the start, but his make up, mental toughness, and obvious talent will help him overcome these early obstacles on route to a highly successful freshman campaign. Plus, he is one of the hungriest players in the league according to twitter. So there's that.

Are the Washington Wizards going to contend for the playoffs this year? In all likelihood, probably not. There are certain scenarios, however, where the Wizards can be successful. The sooner Nenê comes back the better. He gives them scoring, rebounding, and a dominating low post presence. If John Wall comes back on schedule and plays up to the level everyone thinks he can reach, if Bradley Beal develops quickly, and if Kevin Seraphin can make the leap from bench player to bona fide starter the Wizards can be good. They can't be great. Their ceiling lies somewhere around the 7th or 8th seed in the relatively underwhelming Eastern Conference probably. Early projections have the Raptors possibly sneaking into the playoffs so, really, anything is possible. Just ask Kevin Garnett.

Tonight is game one of 82. It's a long season. We may not be good, at times we may not be exciting, but, as compared to years past you will be able to enjoy Washington Wizards basketball this year. And isn't that what really matters?

Yeah you're right. There's always next year. Prediction: 32-50, well out of the playoffs.