Can the Washington Nationals Win the World Series?

It seems reasonable to ask this question given what happened last night at Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati, Ohio. It's early, and this loss means nothing in the grand scope of a 162 game season, but I find that over reactionary criticisms are best. Can the Nats really win the World Series?

The short answer: yes.

The longer answer (because I know you want to read on...it's been a while since I've posted):

NL East Preview

"Baseball, it is said, is only a game," wrote Pulitzer Prize-winning author and essayist George Will. "True. And the Grand Canyon is only a hole in Arizona. Not all holes, or games, are created equal."

And Baseball (like Brittney) is back, bitch. So get your popcorn ready.

Chances are if you clicked here then the only division you really care about is the National League East. And that's good; you have good taste. We didn't corrupt our league with the designated hitter, so this is where baseball fans flock to find a more perfect display of our National Pastime. The NL has won the last three World Series titles, and five of the last seven, so not longer is our league a joke. It's like what 50 Cent said about the American League, "Damn homie, back in the 90's you were the man, homie" (I think that's how it goes...)

Kind of like how Manchester City is the best team in the English Premier League, the East is the best division in the National League. And the only one that we care about here at the Bandwagon.

There has been quite a bit of movement this offseason in the NL East; teams got stronger, teams got worse, teams revolted against their owners. The question persists: what to make of all this? Well, since you clicked here (thanks, by the way) let me tell you.

Let me begin with 2012:

2012 Season Standings:

Washington Nationals: 98-64
Atlanta Braves:           94-68
Philadelphia Phillies:   81-81
New York Mets:         74-88
Miami Marlins:           69-93

Here's what happened. The Phillies and the Marlins "underachieved" and the Nationals "overachieved." The Marlins, it seems, just overpaid for players overvalued by the market (Heath Bell) and thus fell short on absurdly high expectations. The Phils were bitten by two bugs: injury and age. Their big bats were hurt for most of the season and their offense suffered for it; their pitching staff was pretty healthy, however, they weren't their usual selves. As for the Nats: they killed it. Everyone produced, everyone was effective. Will that keep into 2013? Read on, enjoy my predictions, and kneel before my statistical evidence.

FIRST PLACE: Washington Nationals
Projected Win-Loss Record? 100-62

Key Additions: Dan Haren, Denard Span, Rafael Soriano

Key Departures: Michael Morse, Sean Burnett, Edwin Jackson

The Word:

Did you really expect me to pick someone else here? As the self-appointed driver of the bandwagon (a title I only just realized I had) I would be remiss to pick anyone but the Nats here. Like Ukraine, they are too strong.

First, and probably most important, the pitching staff is fierce. Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, Ross Detweiler, and addition Dan Haren, form what is undoubtably the best 1-5 in all of Major League Baseball. The Nats led the NL in ERA in 2012 with a 3.33 clip, and that was with only 159.1 innings of Strasburg, and 189.2 of Edwin Jackson. Haren is an upgrade from Jackson talent wise, there is no doubt of that. His health remains the question here, as he struggled in 2012 from a variety of hip and back problems. If he can stay healthy he one of the best 5th starters in the league, and a nice upgrade for the best pitching staff in the National League.

A fact that may surprise you about the Washington Nationals lineup last season is that it ranked Top 5 in the National League in Runs, Hits, Home Runs, RBI, and AVG. That was with a green Bryce Harper still adjusting to the Majors, and with the Catcher position as an automatic out for most of the season. In the offseason the Nats added Denard Span (a guy I am high on) without losing any of their major contributors. The addition of Span likely shakes up the lineup slightly, forcing (probably) Jason Werth down to 6, but right into the heart of a now extremely balanced and dangerous Washington lineup.

There are two main question marks for the Nationals this season: can they cope with the loss of Michael Morse, and how will the bullpen fare? Morse, The Beast, had evolved into a good hitter in his four-years with the Nats, posting an under-the-radar .303/31HR/91RBI in 2011 before missing 60 games in 2012. Jason Werth, Bryce Harper, and a fully healthy Ryan Zimmerman will be able to pick up the missing power and RBI resulting from Morse's departure. With Morse gone, two of the Nationals biggest weaknesses will improve. He was a black hole in left field: combining limited range with a below average glove and arm to post a defensive WAR of -1.6 and -1.0 the last two seasons respectively. Moving Harper or Werth to Left Field is a huge plus for the Nationals. It's like replacing late night pizza with salad; like, yes, you are going to be healthier. Morse's other issue were his strike outs. The Nats struck out 1325 times in 2012, third worst in the league. Morse struck out 97 times in 102 games (while walking only 16 times), while Span, his defacto replacement K'ed only 62 times in 128 games. It's a decent upgrade, though not entirely dramatic, and will certainly help the Nats over the course of the season. As far as logic goes, you have a better chance of getting on base as a hitter if you actually hit the ball somewhere. Nearly everyone on the Nationals strikes out too often (led by Danny Espinosa's other-worldly 189), so a mitigation of any number of strike outs is a positive. It's a problem, and one worth monitoring over the course of the season.

I've touched on the bullpen before, curious as to how the Nats will cope without a late inning lefty pitcher. It's not a huge issue that the Nats don't have a stop-gap lefty because the statistics don't really suggest that Lefty-Lefty match-ups are any more effective than Rightly-Lefty match-ups. Plus, Tyler Clippard has been a Lefty killer, posting an .170 AVG against LHB in 2012. Now that he is no longer forced into the closer role he will become a more valuable option for Davy Johnson in late game situations. Zach Duke will be an interesting player to watch, as he seems poised to throw significant innings in the Tom Gorzelanny long reliever role. I worry about Zach Duke. I foresee frequent bases-loaded-induced cussing spasms by me, and an inordinate number of Zach Duke highlights called "Duke Escapes Jam." Neither are preferable.

SECOND PLACE: Atlanta Braves
Projected Win-Loss Record? 90-72

Key Additions: B.J. Upton, Justin Upton, Chris Johnson

Key Departures: Michael Bourn, Martin Prado, Chipper Jones

The Word:

Yes, that's correct, the Nationals are going to run away with this division like Chris Brown in "Takers" (it's a horrible movie, as evidenced by this clip). To me, the Braves are going to have a bigger issue holding off the Phillies than actually catching the Nationals. Let's talk about why:

On paper the Braves offense is sexy. Justin and B.J. Upton??? Can wonder twin powers activate even if they're not twins??? In reality the difference between what they lost in the offseason and what they gained is basically non-existent. You can read it up there with the key departures, but losing Bourn, Prado, and Jones is a huge blow to an offense that was barely National League average last season.

Vince Lombardi once said that "the dictionary is the only place where success comes before work;" you're little league coach told you that "practice makes perfect." B.J. Upton has likely never heard either of these sentiments, or, if he has, he didn't find them particularly important. If ever anyone has gotten less out of their God-given talents it's B.J. Upton. Announcers salivate over him because "he doesn't run so much as he glides." I would counter with: "he doesn't hustle so much as he jogs." He's that kid in high school gym class that was too cool to do any of the exercises; and now that he actually gets paid to play a sport he is still too cool to do any thing. The disparity in talent between him and Chipper may not be significant, but their attitudes couldn't be any further apart. If you don't think he is going to lose the respect of his teammates at some point this season, you, my gracious reader, clearly don't know how a B.J. works how B.J. works.

I said the Nationals strike out frequently, right? Well, they are going to pale in comparison to the mighty 2013 Atlanta Braves. In 2012 the Braves struck out 1289 times, the fourth worst in the NL. In 2013 this number looks to jump significantly with the loss of Jones and Prado (a combined 120 K's in 2012) and the addition of the Upton Brothers (a combined 290 K's). Like I said before, it's hard to score when you don't put the ball in play. It's not going to matter how good the Braves bullpen is if they aren't protecting leads.

Speaking of the Braves pitching staff: it's not 2003, Tim Hudson is no longer an Ace...even if he does play one on TV. The starting 5 consists, in some order, of Hudson, Kris Medlen, Mike Minor, Paul Maholm, and Julio Teheran (probably actually in this order). Hudson has been a consistent piece of the Braves staff for years now, but he is turning 38 during the season, how much longer can he be effective as his skills continue to decline? Medlen and Minor are intriguing young arms (as is Brandon Beachy who will return at some point this season after Tommy John surgery) with question marks. Minor pitched well in the second half of 2012, posting a 5.97 ERA pre-All Star break and 2.16 post, so it will be interesting to see if he is the batting practice pitcher he was early on, or the stud into which he transformed. If we're talking studs the name Kris Medlen has to come up. In 138 innings in 2012, and coming off of Tommy John surgery, the 27 year old toasted opposing hitters, holding them to a meager .208 AVG against and owning a 1.57 ERA. Needless to say, Kris Medlen is not that good. Sorry Braves fans, Medlen is not the second coming of Sandy Koufax, his 2012 is just a statistical aberration. He may very well end up an above average pitcher in this league, but he certainly is not the greatest arm the sport has ever seen. Paul Maholm is the definition of average: he'll give you some good starts, he'll give you some bad ones...it's all about taking the good with the bad, the sour with the sweet. Teheran is an intriguing prospect who hasn't exactly set the world on fire with his minor and major league statistics. How he fares will significantly bolster the Braves campaign to win the division, even if he can only hold down the fort until Beachy returns.

Yes, the Braves are dangerous on paper. Yes, they are a sexy team to like. I find that they have too many question marks, and are too likely not to capitalize on their immense talent to actually contend for the division in 2013. I could see them winning 84 games and missing the playoffs just as easily as they could win 90+ and run away with the Wild Card again. The Braves have one of the best 1-6/7 players in the league, but in Baseball 8-25 are just as critical. They'll need a lot to break right for them. I don't see it happening.

THIRD PLACE: Philadelphia Phillies
Projected Win-Loss Record? 87-75

Key Additions: Ben Revere, Michael Young, John Lannan

Key Departures: Placido Polanco, Ty Wiggington, Juan Pierre

The Word:

The Phillies are an interesting case study. They have some of the best players in the National League, but they are also one of the five oldest teams in all of Baseball. Age and injuries hurt them in 2012, as Ryan Howard and Chase Utley missed significant time due to injuries, and Roy Halladay, though spent a few weeks on the DL, pitched like a homeless man's Barry Zito (i.e. not well), and not the Cy Young caliber pitcher we have grown accustomed to watching.

Old Baseball players are a lot like old actors. Baseball players age and decline in skill to the point that they play like caricatures of their former self; actors age and decline in attractiveness to the point that they actually look like caricatures. Baseball players take human growth hormone to stay relevant; actors inject themselves with botox to look young.

The 2013 Phillies are a team full of old-ass hollywood actors. When I would watch them several years ago, I can remember thinking "damn these guys are unstoppable...they could win the division forever..." It was like watching Robert De Niro and Al Pacino in Heat and thinking they were going always going to make good movies. In 2012 we realized this had to end. The Phillies are getting old and are no longer the dominant team they once were. De Niro and Pacino aren't the same actors either. You looked up and De Niro was in Little Fockers and New Year's Eve; Pacino wasn't doing that much better, collecting paychecks for films like The Son of No One and Jack and Jill. Suddenly your opinion of these actors changed completely; suddenly, the Phillies are old and can't find their old form.

The offense here is okay. Howard and Utley remain key components, whose strong production is necessary for the Phillies to make a playoff push. Just as important, however, are the role players. Delmon Young (the bain of every Tigers' fan's existence), Jimmy Rollins (at this point in his career), Michael Young, and Carlos Ruiz, need to produce for the Phil's for them to have a shot at the Wild Card.

The pitching seems poised to rebound from a tough 2012. Their "Three Aces" weren't at full strength last season but are certainly talented enough to keep this team in contention. Though the window for this team is shrinking, and rapidly, there is still enough in Philly to make a run at the playoffs. Division title? No. Wild Card? Why not.

FOURTH PLACE: New York Mets
Projected Win-Loss Record? 72-90

Key Additions: Shaun Marcum, Travis d'Arnaud, John Buck

Key Departures: R.A. Dickey, Mike Pelfrey, Scott Hairston

The Word:

I have a classmate who is a die-hard Mets fan. I know this because he actually wears his Mets jersey's in public- other Mets fans are too ashamed to do this. I was talking to him about the season the other day, and what kind of chances he felt the Mets had this season. He told me that "if we can find a way to make it into third place the season will be a success."

Mets fans. They're not really sure what is going on. They need things like this to tell them how to feel. "Do not expect to win a World Series," the article says. "The Mets will probably not."

The Mets are really no where close to competing in this division. Shaun Marcum, Matt Harvey, Dillon Gee, and Jon Niese are an intriguing No's. 1-4 of a pitching staff, though not exactly frightening. Johan Santana is healthy as of this writing, but at some point this season he is going to get hurt. It's just a fact. The more he is able to pitch in 2013 the better the Mets will be, but even with his help the Mets just aren't close to winning more games than they lose.

There are maybe 3 or 4 offenses worse than the Mets in all of Baseball (maybe...). David Wright, Adam Dunn 2.0   Ike Davis, and Travis d'Arnaud are the only three hitters who could find starting positions elsewhere, but that's the optimist in me talking.

Good news for the Mets is that they are one of the youngest teams in Major League Baseball, which bodes well for their future success- assuming, of course, that the young players they do have can contribute in the show. Bad news for the Mets, however, is that they are going to lose a whole 'lotta games before they win a whole 'lotta games.

No one cares about the playoffs anyway, right Mets fans?

FIFTH PLACE: Miami Marlins
Projected Win-Loss Record? 56-106

Key Additions: Placido Polanco, Juan Pierre, Jon Rauch

Key Departures: Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Heath Bell, Fans of the Miami Marlins

The Word:

Not since 1977 have we seen one man blow up a core quite like Jeffrey Loria, the Owner of the Marlins (and that was Luke Skywalker in Star Wars). His incompetence is mind-boggling. He wrote a letter to Miami Marlins fans, the half-dozen who still remain, in a recent issue of the Miami Herald. The quotes are literally priceless. He writes: "The controversial trade we made with the Toronto Blue Jays was approved by Commissioner Bud Selig and has been almost universally celebrated by baseball experts outside of Miami for its value." Almost being the operative word. It was almost universally celebrated, but instead it wasn't. Marlins fans were insulted (like 5 people signed up for season tickets this season as a result), and talking heads were confused. If you say "Jeffrey Loria" to any informed baseball fan he will immediately cuss him out and wonder when he is running for President (alas, Loria is probably too old to make a run in 2016).

Behind Houston, the Marlins are the second youngest team in Baseball. That's a good thing for the future. Also good for the future is that according to MLBNetwork the Marlins have 6 of the Top 100 prospects (tied for the highest number). Jeffrey Loria likely knows that prospects always always work out, so even though dedicated baseball fans would struggle to name six Marlins, they are going to contend VERY SOON.

Yes Marlins fans (and Miami residents), Mr. Loria did raise your taxes to help pay for his monstrosity of a stadium-going so far as to add the aesthetically pleasing aquarium and this thing- so you may not exactly have "disposable income," but you are going to want to get season tickets. And soon before they run out. Who doesn't want to watch the Marlins loose 100+ games?

On a more serious note we, as baseball fans, are watching the wasted years of one of baseball's best young hitters. Giancarlo Stanton has been left for dead by Marlins ownership, thrashing around in pain like a fish out of water. As a baseball fan, I will be rooting for a Stanton trade for two reasons: he deserves better than the despicable Jeffrey Loria (who actually told Jose Reyes to buy a house right before trading him to Toronto). And two, because the Marlins then could lose more than 120 games this season, breaking the modern day record for futility. It's the Michael Jordan school of ownership; if you are going to suck why not be historically awful?

The ball is in your court, Mr. Loria.

Oh, and if you want to read his letter.

J.P. "F---ing" Howell

Friday night the Los Angeles Dodgers agreed to terms with J.P. Howell on a one year deal worth $2.85 million plus performance bonuses. Howell, 29, had a 3.04 ERA in 50 1/3 innings in 2012 as a member of the Tampa Bay Rays. Why the Nationals were interested in Howell-and where most of his value lies- is his ability to get left handed hitters out. In 2012 left-handed hitters batted only .200 against him.

Unfortunately for the Nationals they had keyed into Howell as a prime addition to their bullpen, specifically to match-up with left-handed hitters in late game situations. With Howell off the free agent market the left-handed pitching options remaining aren't tremendous. Howell was arguably the best lefty to begin with, and now with him gone the Nationals are going to have to look in other directions to find the help they need.

It's true that having a lefty who can come out of the bullpen to match up with left-handed hitters is not a necessity for MLB teams. Right-handed hitters face right-handed pitchers all the time and little to no deal is made out of these match-ups. Conventional baseball wisdom suggests that, when a pitcher and a hitter pitch or bat with the same hand, the pitcher typically has the advantage. This holds true for lefties because they are less common in MLB lineups than righties. Do the statistics actually back up such "conventional wisdom?"Not especially. It also seems counterintuitive that a Major League team would go out of its way to create a lefty-lefty situation when that lefty pitcher is not the best option that the team has in its bullpen. Would I not want my best pitcher pitching in the highest leverage situations? Of course not. I don't care what side of the plate the hitter digs his cleats in to, because conceivably my best pitcher should be able to get him out.

That's why the Nationals non-signing of J.P. Howell is not that big of an issue. Certainly not as large as talking heads would have one believe. Lefties add to the strength of a bullpen in the sense that they are less than 33% of total pitchers and aren't seen as frequently.

But to think that somehow lefty relievers have a huge advantage over righty relievers is foolish. Over the course of his career, Tyler Clippard has held left-handed hitters to a .186 average and fellow bullpen-mate Ryan Mattheus has fared similarly well, keeping lefties in check with a .214 average. The Nationals also re-signed Zach Duke, but with Tom Gorzelanny gone Duke will likely find himself exclusively in Middle or Long Relief.

The Nationals don't need a lefty in the bullpen as badly as they need quality arms. Righty, lefty, that crazy dude who pitches with both, it doesn't matter. Right now the Nationals have four quality arms coming out of their bullpen (Clippard, Drew Storen, Mattheus, and Craig Stammen). I'm not crazy about Zach Duke and his 4.52 career ERA and .305 Batting Average Against, nor do I think Henry Rodriguez will make a splash for the Nationals again.

Problem is that the relief pitching market is not at all enticing. There are (potential) Nationals retreads like Jon Rauch, Matt Capps, and Chien-Ming Wang; there are potential high-risk high- reward types in Francisco Rodriguez, Jose Valverde, and Kyle Farnsworth, but these guys aren't actually worthwhile. The market for players is set up in such a way that relievers are paid a premium that they actually aren't worth. Remember Heath Bell? Yeah. Bullpens are, whether you agree with the system or not, anchored by a closer and feature several complimentary pieces. The MLB season is long enough that pitchers in the bullpen are used frequently and can become fatigued. This necessitates a deeper bullpen that can drag a team through the doldrums of June, July, and August. Nationals pitchers threw 1468 1/3 innings in 2012, good for third in the league. It stands to reason that the Nationals would like a deep bullpen to take the stress off their starting rotation, three of whom (Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Dan Haren) have had some kind of significant injury within the past three seasons.

The question then becomes: how do the Nationals bolster their bullpen? How indeed?

The best option for the Nationals at this point would be to resign Adam LaRoche (who will eventually cave to the Nationals 2 year offer) and then trade Michael Morse for bullpen help. Initially I thought that Morse would attract a decent prospect, but the Nationals need for bullpen is now more pressing.

The two teams that have shown the most interest in Morse have been the Seattle Mariners and Toronto Blue Jays, but would also be a good fit on a hand-full of other teams as well (looking at you Baltimore, don't think I can't see you there). The Mariners don't exactly have baseball's best bullpen, nor are they dripping with quality arms they can dispose of- Danny Hultzen obviously, but Morse isn't fetching my fellow UVA brother. The Blue Jays are an intriguing partner in this because they do have a surplus in arms. Guys like Brad Lincoln, Brett Cecil, and Aaron Loup (a lefty!!!) are reasonably attainable for Morse and would significantly upgrade the Nats bullpen. In terms of the Orioles, a team I have- with no justification other than gut feel- added to the list of Morse suitors are intriguing as well. They can offer the Nationals guys like Zach Britton or Wei-Yin Chen- or several other lefty pitchers- and have a need for Morse now that their starting First Baseman, Mark Reynolds, departed to Cleveland.

So, while Nationals fans may have been cursing the name of J.P. Howell after he took his talents to Chavez Ravine, it's not all that serious. It's like drinking too much on New Years Eve. You are going to hate it the next day but eventually you'll be okay. Just know that when the Nationals play the Dodgers at home in July I'll be the guy with the offensive J.P. Howell sign. I'm not weird, just determined.

The Chief Keef Watch: The Signing of Dan Haren

There’s an episode of “How I Met Your Mother” where Robin’s old boyfriend from Canada (played by the immortal James Van Der Beek) visits her for the first time since she was 16. Back then he was good looking and bound for success. When he visits Robin in New York, however, he is anything but. He has a beer gut and is balding slightly, but Robin is still very interested in him and falls back in love with him despite his unattractive exterior. It’s been a while since I’ve seen that particular episode (or the show itself), but it’s actually the first thing that popped into my head after I heard that the Nationals signed Dan Haren.   

Dan Haren is the balding James Van Der Beek and the Nationals are the desperate Robin jumping back into bed with him (the metaphor is perfect, you just have to trust it). Well, according to Ken Rosenthal, and (honestly) everyone with a smart phone and a working knowledge at the Winter Meetings.

And I hate it.

Dan Haren is a three time All-Star selection (‘07, ‘08, ’09), has 199 wins, a career 3.66 ERA, and a 7.2 SO/9 average. Pretty solid numbers. He has been a serviceable (if overrated) No. 2 or No. 3 starter over the course of his career, and if he pitches to that pedigree he will be a smart investment for the Nationals. The problem is that he is no longer that pitcher.

If we take his WARP (wins above replacement player) totals from his last five seasons we notice a pretty explicit pattern. They are declining. In his second All-Star season (2008) he posted a 5.2 WARP- a great statistical season; then the wheels slowly started to come off. He posted 4.7, 3.7, 3.0, and 0.8 his last four seasons, essentially transforming from an All-Star to a borderline starting pitcher.

Surely there must be a reason for this?

Indeed. He is 32 years old and has been hit with a relatively strong case of old-man syndrome (See: Rodriguez, Alex). In the first six years in the league (’04-’10) he was placed on the Disabled List or listed as Day-to-Day four times. He was a workhorse too, throwing (or approaching) 220 innings per season. Recently, however, he has become less reliable than my father’s old 1995 Ford Explorer (and that was a piece of junk). He had five trips to the DL or listed as day-to-day in the past two seasons alone; most notably for a chronic stiffness in his lower back that has plagued him both years.

Injuries can be the result of freak happenings, like taking a line drive off the hand or arm (or getting back spasms from a sneeze). Haren on the other hand, has been plagued with more serious injuries (granted I’m not a doctor, but I know it’s not easy to throw a ball 100 times every five days with back problems), which leads me to believe that his recent lack of production is not an aberration. There is something wrong with him physically, and who is to say that it is fixed? 

His fastball velocity over the course of his career had been rather consistent (90.5-91.5 mph) until last year when he lost a "little" pop. Last year his average velocity was 88.5 mph- slower than or equal to the three best pitchers on my high school baseball team- by far the lowest of his career. Pitchers can overcome a lack of velocity, so this dip in velocity is not necessarily a bad thing. In his three All-Star seasons Haren struck out, on average, 8.5 hitters per 9. In those three seasons the average velocity of his fastball was greater than 90.5 mph. Last year, with a two mph drop on his fastball he needed to adjust and become a different pitcher in order to have any reasonable chance at success. He didn’t.

His line drive percentage last season (the percentage of balls put in play that are line drives) spiked a full percentage point from his career average. His pitches were being hit harder than ever before and unlike years previous, they were leaving the yard. His ground ball percentage decreased by three full points, while his fly ball percentage (two points) and homerun to fly ball ratio (three points) spiked significantly. 94% of the pitches he threw were variations on a fastball (four-seam, two-seam, cutter and splitter), and with his dip in velocity- and complete disregard for his change up (0%) and curveball (6%)- his pitches were of a similar velocity and movement (read: hittable).

The best thing about this signing for the Nationals is the length of the contract: one year. Haren is essentially an experiment. His pedigree is that of an above average Major League pitcher, and if he can channel any of the skill that he exhibited in Arizona, the Nationals will have found a very competent No. 4 starter. Dan Haren is going to be better than most of the opposing pitchers he faces as the de-facto No. 4 starter- assuming that his back has improved (and that, as Buster Onley reported, his hip is a non issue). But if for any reason this marriage doesn’t work out the Nationals can wipe their hands with him rather easily and move on to the next big thing. I hear David Price is available.

What this Haren signing does, primarily, is confuse Nationals fans as to what the offseason strategy is. It was thought that the Nationals were shopping Michael Morse for pitching; and while this still may be the case, it diminishes the odds that they will swing a Danny Espinosa-Morse trade for James Shields of the Tampa Bay Rays (something that I like, but may not be popular with Nats Nation).

Dan Haren is a question mark for the 2013 Washington Nationals. Is the Dan Haren from 2012 going to show his face at Nats Park in April, or will the vintage, better version reemerge and dominate the National League? Mike Rizzo definitely knows more than me when it comes to the players he invests millions of dollars in, but this is one particular instance where I hope he’s right.

Time will tell.

Breaking Down the Denard Span Trade

If you don’t know, now you know. Denard Span of the Minnesota Twins has been traded to the Nationals for pitching prospect Alex Meyer.

What does this mean for the Nationals in 2012? 

Excellent news.

First, what we gave up. Alex Meyer, a 6-9 220 RHP, was the No. 4 prospect in the Washington Nationals farm system. Last year he gave an indication of his future prowess: over two levels Meyer won 10 games, posted a 2.86 ERA, struck out 139 hitters, and opposing batters hit a measly .211 against him.

Meyer is scouts dream, and the kind of prospect that GM’s drool over. For one, he is 6-9. Clark Kellogg would probably call him “gracile,” or some other lengthy SAT word that probably doesn't exist. In the eyes of scouts and others who evaluate talent, height is a critical characteristic for a pitcher. The thinking is that they are more durable than a similarly talented pitcher who is 6-1 or shorter. Does that actually hold true? Not really. Durability and velocity generated is often independent of height (for every Randy Johnson, there is a Pedro Martinez), and if we look at the height of the average Hall of Fame pitcher we find that it is only 6-1. So while height does matter in some things (like if you want to date pretty girls) it's not the be all end all of a pitching career. 

Tall pitchers actually face challenges that their shorter brethren don’t. It’s actually harder for them to repeat their delivery on a consistent basis (with all those moving parts and whatnot), which can result in a lack of control and having to trade velocity for accuracy.

Meyer’s fastball tops around 98 MPH, and scouts grade his high 80's slider as something that can eventually become an above average pitch. But right now he is raw. He is a two-pitch pitcher who throws a slowly improving change up, however, he doesn’t figure to crack a Major League rotation anytime before 2014 at the earliest. Denard Span is going to make an impact in April.  

I’ve never personally witnessed Meyer pitch, but scouts and other people who deal with advanced metrics suggest that his ceiling is somewhere as a No. 2 or No. 3 pitcher, with a very good chance he ends up as a back of the bullpen guy. Obviously, a lot has to go right for him to get level. With Span we already know he is a starting caliber Center Fielder.

But even if Meyer reaches his ceiling, and truthfully it’s two early to tell, the Nationals just made an excellent trade.

The Nationals plan this offseason was three-fold: get a Center Fielder, get a Pitcher, and figure out what to do with Laroche. Trading for Denard Span checks Outfielder off of Mike Rizzo’s Christmas List and actually saves the Nationals a pretty significant sum of money. B.J. Upton just signed a 5 year/ $75 Million dollar contract with the Braves (starting at 12.45M in 2013 and climbing by 1M a year until 2017), a deal the Nationals would have likely offered him as well. Michael Bourn, the other top tier Free Agent Center Fielder on the market, is going to likely end up being even more expensive than that. The Nationals control Span’s rights for 3 years and owe him 4.75M in ’13, 6.5M in ’14, and have a 9M team option for ’15. That's peanuts for the talent he brings.

Denard Span has been a more valuable player over the course of his career than both B.J. Upton and Michael Bourn. His average WAR per season is 3.3, while B.J. Upton’s 1.7 and Michael Bourn’s 2.7 leave one wondering how they fetched such expensive pay days.

Span, a career .284/.357/.389 hitter, will fit in very nicely with the Nationals. Not only does he get on base and avoid striking out, he is actually one of the game’s better defensive outfielders. With him in the fold for 2013 the Nationals are set to move Bryce Harper to Left Field- minimizing his body from the demands of Center Field- and move Morse…somewhere.

Like I’ve said before, this offseason for the Nationals will come down to Adam Laroche. He wants three years. Rizzo is only willing to give him two. Mike Rizzo’s reluctance to give Laroche tells us something about his future plan. In two years Anthony Rendon, the Nationals Super-Top-Prospect, will be ready to contribute full time (though, probably sooner). Ryan Zimmerman’s shoulder may not hold up much longer at Third Base and he could be flipped across the diamond and experience a very different view of Nationals Park.

The Nationals could chose to let Laroche walk, and move Morse to First Base full time and take all the money they saved and throw it at a Pitcher. Greinke isn’t a realistic option, given his asking price and a slew of other variables, but guys like Kyle Loshe and Ryan Dempster are.

Morse only has one year left on his contract before he will hit the market, which makes his trade value as high as it’s ever going to be (unless he comes out like gangbusters in 2013). The Nationals could trade him for a Dempster level pitcher (or prospects), sign Laroche to a two-year deal with a team option for a third, and then sit tight for the rest of the offseason. Right now we don't know. We are all waiting on Laroche, hopefully he makes his decision soon.

But for now let’s praise Rizzo that we didn’t sign B.J. Upton. Bossman Junior? More like Bossman Junior Varsity. (#5MoreYears)

Washington Nationals Shopping List: Offseason 2013

Hey Nationals Fans, this is what is called the Offseason. You know it because the Redskins do it too. It's a period between when the last game is played in one year and the first game is played in the next year. Baseball does it too, you just haven't noticed because normally you haven't cared. You remember Game 5 and part of you gets sick every time you hear the name Daniel Descalso even if you can't quite remember who that is. But just like with Biggie there is "Life After Death" and it is the offseason. This offseason is going to be exciting because the Nationals are contenders and what they do will have significant impacts on the 2013 season. So, loyal reader, put down that carton of Ben & Jerry's that you have been hate eating every night since the middle of October and pay attention. Things are going to change, and you are going to care. It's going to be like when the Redskins drafted RGIII but like 30x less exciting.

In 2012 the Washington Nationals won the National League East and were the first Chocolate City baseball franchise to make the playoffs since 1933. They did this primarily through pitching, fielding, and timely hitting. Something that the San Francisco Giants perfected in October and, along with shrewd coaching, became the main factors that resulted in them holding up the Commissioners trophy through a confetti storm of biblical proportions.

The Nationals have three glaring question marks in terms of personnel decisions this offseason. Adam Laroche, Edwin Jackson, and Sean Burnett are all free agents this offseason and despite the contribution of each to the Nats playoff push it is conceivable that none will return in 2013.

Sean Burnett has been very effective in his four years with the Nationals as a tough lefty-lefty match-up and an unhittable 7th inning guy this past season. With the recent loss of Michael Gonzalez the Nats are well served to bring Burnett and his 2.38 ERA and 9.1 K's per 9 back to sure up the back end of the bullpen. One of the Nationals keys this offseason is to improve a bullpen that was a strength for much of the season- at least before Tyler Clippard went from "Clip and Save" to "Clipboard." Ryan Madson, formerly of the Reds, is a free agent after missing the entire 2012 season rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. If the Nats decided to replace Gonzalez with him he would add another powerful arm and strikeout pitcher (career 7.8 K's per 9) to one of the best bullpens in baseball. 

The case with Edwin Jackson is the easiest. He will not be returning to the Nats next season. As the teams 5th starter he posted solid numbers, throwing almost 190 innings to go along with 10 wins and a 4.03 ERA. But he was relatively ineffective down the stretch run of the season and had zero business coming into Game 5 of the Cardinals series when he was hit like a pinata in Game 3. He was a very serviceable 5th option for the Nats this season, which is a very nice way of saying that he won't be getting a long-term contract from anybody. The Edwin Jackson: Hired Gun story continues. I say he heads up to Toronto to get knocked around by the Yankees, Sox and O's. The Nationals are going to go after another back of the rotation starter this offseason, and the market has some pretty solid options.

The Adam Laroche question is a little more difficult. We offered him a $13.3 million dollar qualifying offer for one year, something he will likely reject (he has until November 9th) in favor of a long-term contract with the Nationals. Based on what he has said he wants to come back to the Nationals, and the Nationals want him back. He hit .271 with 33 home runs and 100 RBI to go along with a Gold Glove and  was, over the course of the season, undoubtably the Nationals best hitter and was a huge factor in 98 wins and a division crown.

He is going to want a 4 year contract at least, probably somewhere in the $40-60 million dollar price range. Resigning him would keep Bryce in Center, and Morse in Left - though he is clearly a DH forced to wear a glove because he plays in the National League. Might the Nats be better served to let Laroche go, move Morse to First where is limited range is not a serious concern (playing First Base is not that difficult to begin with), and go after an outfielder to play either Center or Left while Bryce plays the other?

For fun let's assume that the Nationals pass on signing Laroche and go after an outfielder and a 5th starter to replace Edwin Jackson. Who are some of the players that might make a difference to whether or not 1500 South Captiol Street sees more playoff baseball next year?

Outfielders first:

Josh Hamilton: 0% chance. There are only a few teams who are going to take a shot with him and it will not be the Nats. Too much baggage for Mike Rizzo to shell out a lengthy and expensive contract. The Nationals have quite a bit of money from the new TV contract but promise to be shrewd with this cash, not just burning this money for the thrill of it. Hamilton to the Brewers or Phillies. This contract is going to be big, and the team that gives it to him will be disappointed.

Michael Bourn: Somewhat likely if Laroche leaves (which is to say like 25% IF). He would get $80-100 million long-term and hit lead off. However, speed is overrated in baseball these days and since Bourn doesn't hit for power or drive in runs this is essentially a $100 million dollar contract for someone who can catch flyballs, cutoff balls in the gap, hit .272, and steal bases(?). Seems a little high for someone who isn't going to decide a lot of games unless he scores a run one someone else's hit. Kinda unlike our current leadoff hitter.

Nick Swisher: I don't this is a reality but it's pretty interesting to think about this kind of fit. He brings a fun-loving personality, has playoff experience, would not end up costing all that much, and is a powerful left handed bat that could easily offset the loss of Laroche. But, if you are going to bring in someone so similar to Laroche why not just keep Laroche? Yeah, sorry Swish. I hear there is a lot to do in Cleveland.

B.J. Upton: This seems likely, if not certain, if the Nats part with Laroche. I already have visions of me cursing at the TV while he strikes out 175 times and does the opposite of hustle. I'm already mad. This fantasy sucks. Hopefully the Phillies sign him.

Torii Hunter: A cheap but experienced seat warmer until Brian Goodwin can contribute? Maybe.

Shin Soo Choo/ Jacoby Ellsbury: Both would have to be traded, and likely for pitching. Ellsbury is a free agent after the 2013 season if the Nats want to make a run for him then. Choo isn't really even worth looking at for the price that the Indians would likely want.  

Pitchers:

Zach Grenkie: The Nationals have the money to do this, should they choose to. They won't. Again like Hamilton there are just too many character issues here. He pitched well after being traded to LAA last year, proving that he could still pitch in the American League. Scouts took notice so the AL is where he will likely stay. Expect a big contract from the Angels or the Rangers as they battle to dethrone the A's as champions of the West. 

Kyle Loshe: He turned 34 one month ago. His last two seasons have been statistical outliers from the rest of his relatively mediocre career where his 4.45 ERA dwarfs the 2.86 and 3.39 he put up in '12 and '11. He is a league average pitcher at best (go ahead and look for yourself) who, with Scott Boras as his agent, is going to ask to be paid like a ace or big-time No. 2. I'm not buying this sudden career transcendence as anything other than a byproduct of the Cardinals ability to take league average pitchers and make them good, and sometimes great. The Nationals should take this money that they don't spend on Loshe and bring in more concerts to Nationals Park. I mean I like The Wallflowers and all but let's bring in some bands that might actually make it worth my while to listen to live free music instead of just pulling up YouTube on my iPhone. No one wants to listen to Big & Rich, not even their parents.

Dan Haren: Clearly the Angels are trying to trade him. The National League is a good fit for him and his skill set (very hittable pitches) because the league lacks powerful offenses. That's the best reason I could think of to justify this move so... let's just move on.

Anibal Sanchez: This would be interesting. I think he stays with the Tigers; they have too much money and are not about to watch their pitching strength up and leave. He would be a good signing for the Nats, just pretty unlikely.

Ryan Dempster: Player A: 10-14 W-L, 4.80 ERA, .271 BAA, 1.448 WHIP, 9.4 H/9, WAR .9
                           Player B: 10-10 W-L, 4.08 ERA, .253 BAA, 1.325 WHIP, 8.9 H/9, WAR 1
                           Player C: 9-10 W-L, 4.41 ERA, .253 BAA, 1.450 WHIP, 8.9 H/9, WAR 1.3
                           Player D: 11-11 W-L, 4.61 ERA, .268 BAA, 1.451 WHIP, 9.4 H/9, WAR 1.3 

          

One of these is the career 162 (33 start) avg of Ryan Dempster. Does it really matter which one he is? (He's not B). He did pitch well last year with the Cubs before having all chances at getting a large contract this offseason destroyed in the plains of west Texas. He would be cheap, and given his successes last year the upside here is pretty good. Of these pitchers this is the strongest move that the Nationals can make.

Scott Baker: He missed 2012 with Tommy John and the Twins declined his 2013 option as a result. He would be available to pitch from day one and puts up numbers that are best described as E- Jaxian. This is sort of a last option kind of deal. Everyone else in the bar went home with someone else and you are just staring down someone you really don't want but will take anyway because some is better than none. Scott Baker is last call.

At this point all we can do is wait and see what Laroche wants, and then pray that we don't end up with B.J. Upton. No one should have to suffer like that. So yeah Nationals fans, this is it. Get ready to Wang Chung for the next 4 1/2 months.