What are Stephen Strasburg’s Chances at Winning the Cy Young?

I love late August. It’s early enough that the standings, statistics and award races can radically change by seasons end, but it’s also late enough to justify spending time dissecting these things. This August is a little different for Washington Nationals’ fans because, since 2005, we are actually competing for a spot in the playoffs. And with this success come the spoils.

Several Nationals players are currently in consideration for postseason awards, none more notably than our ace, and frequent SportsCenter topic, Stephen Strasburg.

Today (8/15) is Stras-mas- or the one day out of the week where Strasburg pitches. Everyone in D.C. celebrates, all in different ways. We all know about Stephen Strasburg. The hype. The innings limit. The electric stuff and impressive statistics. What we don’t know is if he will win the Cy Young Award this season.

He has the statistics: 13-5, 2.90ERA, 166K’s, and the Nationals have the best record in baseball. In any other year wins this race easily. This year, however, it’s debatable.

Strasburg has thrown 133.1 innings this year (as of 8/14) and if the length of his starts this season have been any indication (they have), Stras has about 5, or maybe more, starts before he reaches the 160 inning plateau and the Nationals shut him down. But I’m not as interested in the ethics or health effects behind the decision to shut him down, that’s for someone with a M.D. to discuss, I am more interested in whether or not Strasburg can win the Cy Young without pitching down the stretch run or in the playoffs.

If he does win he wouldn’t be the first person to win the Cy Young and not play in the playoffs, but that’s usually because the teams don’t qualify. The Washington Nationals are going to make the playoffs with or without Strasburg, there’s enough on this team to win every time out. There chances of winning the World Series without Strasburg? I don’t think they are great. But because he has put up elite statistics on the team with the best record in baseball, and has become our bona fide ace, it makes Strasburg the logical favorite to win the Cy Young.

But, for a player in his unique position, this award would come not so much as a shock, as it would a justification for the Nationals regular season. The Cy Young and MVP Awards are given out to the players who have the statistical regular season worthy of such accomplishments. My fear this year is that Stephen Strasburg is overlooked for the award because, in all likelihood, he will not figure into the Washington Nationals post-season exploits. The award is voted on prior to the start of the post season but it’s hard to imagine a world where Strasburg’s absence won’t have a negative effect on voters’ feelings toward him.

Strasburg this season ranks in the top 10 in Wins (T5), ERA (7), WHIP (8), K’s (1), K/9 (2), and WAR (T8).  By any statistical measure he must be considered one of the top 5 pitchers this season, and in terms of impact to his team he might be among the select few (see Verlander, Justin). The Nationals this season have been driven by the success of their pitching staff. It’s not that the offense has been bad, its just that they have been nearly as good as their record might suggest. The Nationals are 14^th in baseball in runs scored, behind such power houses as Milwaukee, Minnesota and Colorado. A .258 AVG/ .320 OBP/ .415 SLG are all 12^th or worse, indicating that the Nationals’ offense has not been playoff caliber, though they have picked it up of late. What this means is that for the Nationals to be competitive, let alone the league leaders, their pitching staff must be dynamic. And it has. Jordan Zimmerman, Gio Gonzalez, and Strasburg all have legitimate claims to the Cy Young, and Edwin Jackson and Ross Detwiler are arguably the best 4-5 combo in baseball. The staff is first in ERA and Batting Average Against, third in Strikeouts, first in quality starts, and second in earned runs. By any statistical measure the Nationals have the best pitching staff in all of baseball.

Does this mean the ace of the best pitching staff will win the Cy Young? It’s hard to say in a year with this many qualified candidates. Reigning Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw is a front runner, as are Johnny Cueto, R.A. Dickey, Cole Hamels, Jordan Zimmerman/ Gio Gonzalez, Ryan Vogelsong/ Madison Bumgarner/ Matt Cain. Hamels and Dickey are not likely to win, as their teams will finish well out of the playoff race, and that San Francisco triumvirate is probably going to split votes. Jordan Zimmerman is easily the most overlooked pitcher on this list, but statistically he deserves to be considered as a front-runner. But he will most definitely be overlooked. Gonzalez’ peripherals are not as good as some of the others on this list, but if a Nat other than Strasburg is going to get votes it’s him. Kershaw and Cueto have the best shot at the award of anyone on this list, and the race between that duo and Strasburg will likely last until the last weeks of the season.

When it comes down to it Stephen Strasburg deserves, at least, to be heavily considered for the Cy Young. He might not win, but it should not be because he is not playing in the post-season. If he has the stats, which he will, and if the Nats are still dominating, which they will, there is no reason he can’t win. The Nationals are cautious with their young arms, and while the playoffs are not guaranteed for anyone, if they can keep this arm healthy they have a great chance to run the National League East for years to come.

But until they Nationals shut him down, Stephen Strasburg runs out there every fifth day and gives his playoff team a chance to win. And we continue to celebrate Stras-mas.  

Those are Some Clown Stats, Bro.

Bryce Harper lights the world on fire. Always. Living near D.C. we have access to the Washington Nationals on TV just about every night (sometimes they bump the coverage in favor of the Orioles. A team less interesting than a Keeping up with the Kardashians episode). And with this access we are privy to all things Bryce Harper. And by that I mean all things Bryce Harper.

I love the commenting duo of Bob Carpenter and F.P. Santgelo. I do. But the amount of coverage/love/fantasizing they give to Bryce Harper makes me forget certain things. He is not hitting well of late, in fact one might go as far as to say that he is cold. But you would not really know it watching the telecast. Bryce Harper could go all Michael Barrett (1:41) and the guys would spin it to make him look like Batman.

As of this writing the Nationals are 71-44, good for the best record in baseball. Bryce Harper, the team’s #2 in the batting order for most of the season is sitting at .249/.328/.406 with a 0.9 OWAR, making him only slightly more valuable to the Nationals than, say, Roger Bernadina (at 0.8). Now this doesn’t take into consideration the things Bryce can do in the outfield and on the bases, where his 13 steals and general hustle do make him a valuable asset to the top of the Nationals order. His 59 runs scored puts him third on the team.

It seems with this kid, as with all 19-year-old ‘phenoms,’ there are two schools of thought to which people subscribe, and both are outrageously outspoken. Either you love the kid, or you hate him. You can’t be indifferent to Bryce Harper. You just can’t, and especially not in Washington. But it seems like recently more and more people are starting to jump off the Harper bandwagon, and for reasons that hold merit.

The 2012 Major League Baseball All-Star Game was held July 10^th. Bryce Harper was called up April 28^th, meaning he played in 63 games in that period of time. His triple slash stats: .282/.354/.472. With 8 homeruns and 25 RBI’s he probably was not the most deserving member of the All-Star festivities, but Bryan LaHair made the team so what the hell, right? As a 19-year-old with obscene expectations put on him it’s hard to say that he disappointed. If it wasn’t for Mike Trout it could have been said that Bryce lit the world on fire.

But then came the slump. A .174/.270/.257 line in the 29 games he has played in since, with 16 runs, 2 homeruns, 7RBI’s and only 19 hits. He is routinely the 7^th best hitter in a lineup that features a pitcher and a catcher whose career profile stinks of “defensive replacement” (the jury is still out on Kurt Suzuki). The fact that the Nationals are one of the hottest teams in baseball is a testament to the depth of the lineup; now with a healthy Jason Werth, a competent Roger Bernadina and (hopefully) a slightly above average Suzuki.

So the biggest non-Strasburg related question the Nationals must face in the coming weeks is, what to do with Mr. Harper. He has been terrible. The offense has been clicking. At what point does it no longer make sense for the Nationals to forfeit 3-4 outs a game, especially taking into account the pennant race and the importance of winning the division and therefore not playing in the one game wild card matchup sans Strasburg.

Conventional wisdom says that Harper will not be benched. His continued development is too important for the future of the Nationals for him to remain on the team and ride the bench. If he is going to be on the big club, he needs to play. He needs to learn and understand the things that it will take for him to succeed, whether it’s extra video sessions, more time on the tee, or even mental exercises that keep him on a more even keel, he needs to figure it out.

In my opinion Bryce Harper is exhausted. His body and mind have worn out through the course of the season to the point where he will no longer have the same amount of success he did earlier in the season. The same argument is generally made when rookies come up, succeed, and then eventually fall into mediocrity. They say that the pitchers have figured them out and that now the whole league knows their tendencies and how to get them out (see Francoeur, Jeff). I don’t think that is the case with Harper. His problem stems from over analyzing himself and his failures. Bryce Harper’s approach to his at bats is poor, or at least it has been. He puts bad swings on off-speed pitches in hitters counts, he chases pitches out of the strike zone, he doesn’t protect the plate with 2 strikes enough or he goes out of his way to do that. However, to be honest, all hitters in the MLB do these things too. The good ones don’t dwell on their failures. Bryce Harper dwells. Watch a Nationals game. A Harper at bat in the first inning is markedly different than a 0-3 Harper hitting in the eighth. He presses. He expects himself to get a hit every time he walks up to the plate, but it he doesn’t he considers it a colossal failure. Until he can alleviate some of that pressure he puts on himself, and come to terms with the fact that his average will not hover around .500 he is going to struggle. But that is okay for now, because he needs to.

So the question is, what is Bryce Harper? Is he the low average 30-40 homerun guy we thought would put up A-Rod numbers? Or is he more of the .275/100R/20HR/20SB guy he looked like heading into the All-Star break? Time will tell. Comparing him to any historical figures at this point, while certainly justifiable in my opinion, doesn’t do much good. Raise your hand if you think Mike Trout is Mickey Mantle. But, for comparisons sake, lets look at Ken Griffey Jr. as a 19-year-old wunderkind: .264/16HR/61RBI/61R/16SB/.329OBP/.420SLG. Now Bryce (YTD): .249/10HR/32RBI/59R/13SB/.328OBP/.406SLG. I’m not saying he is going to become Ken Griffey Jr., but what’s to say he won’t?

 You want to jump off the bandwagon? Fine. It was getting a little crowded in here anyway.