What are Stephen Strasburg’s Chances at Winning the Cy Young?

I love late August. It’s early enough that the standings, statistics and award races can radically change by seasons end, but it’s also late enough to justify spending time dissecting these things. This August is a little different for Washington Nationals’ fans because, since 2005, we are actually competing for a spot in the playoffs. And with this success come the spoils.

Several Nationals players are currently in consideration for postseason awards, none more notably than our ace, and frequent SportsCenter topic, Stephen Strasburg.

Today (8/15) is Stras-mas- or the one day out of the week where Strasburg pitches. Everyone in D.C. celebrates, all in different ways. We all know about Stephen Strasburg. The hype. The innings limit. The electric stuff and impressive statistics. What we don’t know is if he will win the Cy Young Award this season.

He has the statistics: 13-5, 2.90ERA, 166K’s, and the Nationals have the best record in baseball. In any other year wins this race easily. This year, however, it’s debatable.

Strasburg has thrown 133.1 innings this year (as of 8/14) and if the length of his starts this season have been any indication (they have), Stras has about 5, or maybe more, starts before he reaches the 160 inning plateau and the Nationals shut him down. But I’m not as interested in the ethics or health effects behind the decision to shut him down, that’s for someone with a M.D. to discuss, I am more interested in whether or not Strasburg can win the Cy Young without pitching down the stretch run or in the playoffs.

If he does win he wouldn’t be the first person to win the Cy Young and not play in the playoffs, but that’s usually because the teams don’t qualify. The Washington Nationals are going to make the playoffs with or without Strasburg, there’s enough on this team to win every time out. There chances of winning the World Series without Strasburg? I don’t think they are great. But because he has put up elite statistics on the team with the best record in baseball, and has become our bona fide ace, it makes Strasburg the logical favorite to win the Cy Young.

But, for a player in his unique position, this award would come not so much as a shock, as it would a justification for the Nationals regular season. The Cy Young and MVP Awards are given out to the players who have the statistical regular season worthy of such accomplishments. My fear this year is that Stephen Strasburg is overlooked for the award because, in all likelihood, he will not figure into the Washington Nationals post-season exploits. The award is voted on prior to the start of the post season but it’s hard to imagine a world where Strasburg’s absence won’t have a negative effect on voters’ feelings toward him.

Strasburg this season ranks in the top 10 in Wins (T5), ERA (7), WHIP (8), K’s (1), K/9 (2), and WAR (T8).  By any statistical measure he must be considered one of the top 5 pitchers this season, and in terms of impact to his team he might be among the select few (see Verlander, Justin). The Nationals this season have been driven by the success of their pitching staff. It’s not that the offense has been bad, its just that they have been nearly as good as their record might suggest. The Nationals are 14^th in baseball in runs scored, behind such power houses as Milwaukee, Minnesota and Colorado. A .258 AVG/ .320 OBP/ .415 SLG are all 12^th or worse, indicating that the Nationals’ offense has not been playoff caliber, though they have picked it up of late. What this means is that for the Nationals to be competitive, let alone the league leaders, their pitching staff must be dynamic. And it has. Jordan Zimmerman, Gio Gonzalez, and Strasburg all have legitimate claims to the Cy Young, and Edwin Jackson and Ross Detwiler are arguably the best 4-5 combo in baseball. The staff is first in ERA and Batting Average Against, third in Strikeouts, first in quality starts, and second in earned runs. By any statistical measure the Nationals have the best pitching staff in all of baseball.

Does this mean the ace of the best pitching staff will win the Cy Young? It’s hard to say in a year with this many qualified candidates. Reigning Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw is a front runner, as are Johnny Cueto, R.A. Dickey, Cole Hamels, Jordan Zimmerman/ Gio Gonzalez, Ryan Vogelsong/ Madison Bumgarner/ Matt Cain. Hamels and Dickey are not likely to win, as their teams will finish well out of the playoff race, and that San Francisco triumvirate is probably going to split votes. Jordan Zimmerman is easily the most overlooked pitcher on this list, but statistically he deserves to be considered as a front-runner. But he will most definitely be overlooked. Gonzalez’ peripherals are not as good as some of the others on this list, but if a Nat other than Strasburg is going to get votes it’s him. Kershaw and Cueto have the best shot at the award of anyone on this list, and the race between that duo and Strasburg will likely last until the last weeks of the season.

When it comes down to it Stephen Strasburg deserves, at least, to be heavily considered for the Cy Young. He might not win, but it should not be because he is not playing in the post-season. If he has the stats, which he will, and if the Nats are still dominating, which they will, there is no reason he can’t win. The Nationals are cautious with their young arms, and while the playoffs are not guaranteed for anyone, if they can keep this arm healthy they have a great chance to run the National League East for years to come.

But until they Nationals shut him down, Stephen Strasburg runs out there every fifth day and gives his playoff team a chance to win. And we continue to celebrate Stras-mas.