Those are Some Clown Stats, Bro.

Bryce Harper lights the world on fire. Always. Living near D.C. we have access to the Washington Nationals on TV just about every night (sometimes they bump the coverage in favor of the Orioles. A team less interesting than a Keeping up with the Kardashians episode). And with this access we are privy to all things Bryce Harper. And by that I mean all things Bryce Harper.

I love the commenting duo of Bob Carpenter and F.P. Santgelo. I do. But the amount of coverage/love/fantasizing they give to Bryce Harper makes me forget certain things. He is not hitting well of late, in fact one might go as far as to say that he is cold. But you would not really know it watching the telecast. Bryce Harper could go all Michael Barrett (1:41) and the guys would spin it to make him look like Batman.

As of this writing the Nationals are 71-44, good for the best record in baseball. Bryce Harper, the team’s #2 in the batting order for most of the season is sitting at .249/.328/.406 with a 0.9 OWAR, making him only slightly more valuable to the Nationals than, say, Roger Bernadina (at 0.8). Now this doesn’t take into consideration the things Bryce can do in the outfield and on the bases, where his 13 steals and general hustle do make him a valuable asset to the top of the Nationals order. His 59 runs scored puts him third on the team.

It seems with this kid, as with all 19-year-old ‘phenoms,’ there are two schools of thought to which people subscribe, and both are outrageously outspoken. Either you love the kid, or you hate him. You can’t be indifferent to Bryce Harper. You just can’t, and especially not in Washington. But it seems like recently more and more people are starting to jump off the Harper bandwagon, and for reasons that hold merit.

The 2012 Major League Baseball All-Star Game was held July 10^th. Bryce Harper was called up April 28^th, meaning he played in 63 games in that period of time. His triple slash stats: .282/.354/.472. With 8 homeruns and 25 RBI’s he probably was not the most deserving member of the All-Star festivities, but Bryan LaHair made the team so what the hell, right? As a 19-year-old with obscene expectations put on him it’s hard to say that he disappointed. If it wasn’t for Mike Trout it could have been said that Bryce lit the world on fire.

But then came the slump. A .174/.270/.257 line in the 29 games he has played in since, with 16 runs, 2 homeruns, 7RBI’s and only 19 hits. He is routinely the 7^th best hitter in a lineup that features a pitcher and a catcher whose career profile stinks of “defensive replacement” (the jury is still out on Kurt Suzuki). The fact that the Nationals are one of the hottest teams in baseball is a testament to the depth of the lineup; now with a healthy Jason Werth, a competent Roger Bernadina and (hopefully) a slightly above average Suzuki.

So the biggest non-Strasburg related question the Nationals must face in the coming weeks is, what to do with Mr. Harper. He has been terrible. The offense has been clicking. At what point does it no longer make sense for the Nationals to forfeit 3-4 outs a game, especially taking into account the pennant race and the importance of winning the division and therefore not playing in the one game wild card matchup sans Strasburg.

Conventional wisdom says that Harper will not be benched. His continued development is too important for the future of the Nationals for him to remain on the team and ride the bench. If he is going to be on the big club, he needs to play. He needs to learn and understand the things that it will take for him to succeed, whether it’s extra video sessions, more time on the tee, or even mental exercises that keep him on a more even keel, he needs to figure it out.

In my opinion Bryce Harper is exhausted. His body and mind have worn out through the course of the season to the point where he will no longer have the same amount of success he did earlier in the season. The same argument is generally made when rookies come up, succeed, and then eventually fall into mediocrity. They say that the pitchers have figured them out and that now the whole league knows their tendencies and how to get them out (see Francoeur, Jeff). I don’t think that is the case with Harper. His problem stems from over analyzing himself and his failures. Bryce Harper’s approach to his at bats is poor, or at least it has been. He puts bad swings on off-speed pitches in hitters counts, he chases pitches out of the strike zone, he doesn’t protect the plate with 2 strikes enough or he goes out of his way to do that. However, to be honest, all hitters in the MLB do these things too. The good ones don’t dwell on their failures. Bryce Harper dwells. Watch a Nationals game. A Harper at bat in the first inning is markedly different than a 0-3 Harper hitting in the eighth. He presses. He expects himself to get a hit every time he walks up to the plate, but it he doesn’t he considers it a colossal failure. Until he can alleviate some of that pressure he puts on himself, and come to terms with the fact that his average will not hover around .500 he is going to struggle. But that is okay for now, because he needs to.

So the question is, what is Bryce Harper? Is he the low average 30-40 homerun guy we thought would put up A-Rod numbers? Or is he more of the .275/100R/20HR/20SB guy he looked like heading into the All-Star break? Time will tell. Comparing him to any historical figures at this point, while certainly justifiable in my opinion, doesn’t do much good. Raise your hand if you think Mike Trout is Mickey Mantle. But, for comparisons sake, lets look at Ken Griffey Jr. as a 19-year-old wunderkind: .264/16HR/61RBI/61R/16SB/.329OBP/.420SLG. Now Bryce (YTD): .249/10HR/32RBI/59R/13SB/.328OBP/.406SLG. I’m not saying he is going to become Ken Griffey Jr., but what’s to say he won’t?

 You want to jump off the bandwagon? Fine. It was getting a little crowded in here anyway.