Wednesday, February 6, 2013

Life After RG3



Whether consciously or not, you were a fan of the 2012-2013 Washington Redskins. You probably jumped on the bandwagon like every other person with two eyes and a heart. Well, let me be the first to congratulate you on a choice well made. You could have been a Indianapolis Colts fan, riding the tide of emotion to the Playoffs. You could have been You could have been a New Orleans Saints fan, upset with Roger Goodell over the Bounty Scandal, but happy the lights in the Superdome "mysteriously" went out during the Super Bowl. You could have even been a Dallas Cowboys fan, stuck wondering when Jerry Jones will let someone with "General Manager skills," you know, be General Manager. (But seriously, if you are a Cowboys fan get out. I don't want you to read my column. Your click doesn't mean that much to me anyway).

Chances are good, however, that you were a Redskins fan.

You watched game highlights on Monday's long enough to make it past the Tim Tebow- Mark Sanchez soap opera, and onto the Redskins highlights. You came to see if Robert Griffin III played well, you stayed because he did. Your mouth hung open while you watched him run, stupefied at how fast he really was. You had more than one conversation about a RG3-Usain Bolt race, perhaps knowing that RG3 could never win, but setting aside money just in case the event was broadcast on pay-per-view. You watched the Redskins win six straight games and capture the NFC East Division title; you maybe also noticed that RG3 was far away from 100% during the season's final games. 

You identified RG3 as the most exciting player in the NFL- with apologies to Adrian Peterson in Minnesota- and you loved to watch him play football. Your identity became linked with the Redskins. You were more than just the fan of your team this year, you were a football fan, and RG3 was the best football player you could have watched. You watched the Redskins make the playoffs, and you saw how well RG3 was progressing with his LCL injury. You told all your buddies that the Redskins were going to beat the Seattle Seahawks in the Wild Card Game. You watched the game with interest, ready for that moment/play/event you were never going to forget.

And then it happened.

You probably even remember where you were.   

I was at UVa Men's Basketball game against UNC in Charlottesville when every living Washington Redskins fan collectively swore out loud. The 3000 or so people who had arrived early to the game exhaled one heart broken expletive. I've been dumped by several girls in my life, but this injury felt, like, a million times worse.

Forget about the rest of the game, forget about the rest of the season, Redskins fans were thinking about forgetting the next few seasons, too. 

According to reports doctors expect a "full recovery" from Griffin and set his time table from surgery to around 6-8 months.

According to RG3 he expects to play football in 2013-2014. Telling Twitter: "Thank you for your prayers and support. I love God, my family, my team, the fans, & I love this game. See you guys next season."

I, however, am not so certain. This is Griffin's second ACL tear in his right knee, and for a player who predicates much of his success on his running ability, this is sure to hamper his mobility. Even if he does come back in time for Training Camp and the Pre-Season, it's likely that he is not the same player he was before the surgery. Let's say he can do the same things physically- a statement most conservatives would view as a stretch- his style of play will have to change.

No longer can he afford to take unnecessary hits, nor can he allow 320 pound monsters to hit him with such force. The days of the designed run for RG3 are likely over. It is likely that he will retain the threat of mobility, but that pistol offense that the Redskins run? It's going to change. It has to. 

Is his running ability really worth risking his body to more injury? No. Especially not with the success of stationary, or even slightly mobile quarterbacks. RG3 is an accomplished drop-back quarterback in his own right. He threw five interceptions, fewest in the NFL, and ranked both third and fourth respectively in QB Rating and Completion Percentage. These numbers are as much a testament to his ability as a passer as they are to the system in which he played. That pistol triple option killed defenses last season (watch this) and accounted much for the success of the Redskins running attack. It also directly affected the passing game as well, as the threat of the run froze defenses, allowing receivers to find open spaces against stationary defenders.

It's possible that ACL reconstruction technology has improved recently, and that is how we can justify the success of Adrian Peterson and Jamal Charles. It is also possible that every body is different and what one experiences may not be the same for others. Adrian Peterson has fans thinking that he is the example of the new normal in ACL surgeries, when he could simply just be an outlier. There are more examples of Running Backs breaking down after ACL tears than doing what Peterson did. Quarterback is a much less demanding position, but infinitely more important to an offense. RG3 may come back to be the same player he was in 2012. He likely won't.

Without him the Redskins are an average team at best. Kirk Cousins played well enough in a small sample size in 2012, but too small to pass adequate judgement on his future as an NFL Quarterback. The defense is a rather unspectacular unit, above average against the run, but one of the worst against the pass. Help may not be on the horizon either, as the Redskins were forced to trade their First Round pick in the upcoming 2013 Draft to the St. Louis Rams for the rights to Griffin.

If Griffin is able to play in 2013-2014 I am cautious about the Redskins chances. If he can't play? Well, the Redskins chances teeter near bottom of the barrel. You may have to find a new favorite team in 2013.

Please watch your step as you exit the bandwagon.



Erik Payne lives in McLean, Virginia and was born months after the Redskins last Superbowl victory. Coincidence? Hopefully not. He has written for the Cavalier Daily and other websites.

4 comments:

  1. For the driver of the bandwagon, you're not too optimistic. There is a 100% RG3 plays next year and with the return of Fred Davis and Brian Orakpo, 2013 looks promising. Also, this obsession with RG3's role in the offense is getting really old. You don't think every member of the organization is aware that they have to limit the amount of hits he takes? All things considered, the Redskins have to be preseason favorites to win the weak NFC East.

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    1. At this point I am seriously worried about RG3's knees. I don't know if he can physically compete in this league.

      I am obsessed with RG3's role in the offense because he is the cog that makes the machine go. Kirk Cousins can't run Shanny's offense; it takes a special talent. If RG3 can't play like RG3 that's a problem, and the Skins will have to alter what they do on offense.

      All systems go, I think the Redskins have what it takes to win the division. Today, the division is a crap shoot. Each team has question marks that have the potential to swing the division. When we get a better idea on RG3's knee we'll have a better idea as to whether or not the Redskins are contenders or pretenders. Right now I'm not so sure.

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  2. I don't think there is any doubt that he will be back at some point next season. But there is just about a zero percent chance of him starting week 1. He might even miss the first 4 weeks in my opinion. The doctor's expected "full recovery" from surgery in 6-8 months is laughable. Speaking from experience, a restructured ACL takes about 8 months to fully grow on whatever base used (patella, cadaver, hamstring), and with the complications of an LCL in the mix, I doubt that speeds up the process. Then, you have to calculate in time of getting back into shape. Which will probably be about a month maybe two. Also, it's difficult to compare RGIII to Adrian Peterson. Peterson is a freak of nature, more so than RGIII, and he tore his ACL in December 2011 while RGIII tore his in January 2013. S, that means that Peterson also had more time to recover than RGIII will. So, that means Captain Kirk for the start of the season. The defense will improve next year with Orakpo back, and hopefully a nice defensive back draft pick and free agent. But the offense will definitely struggle the first few weeks whether it is RGIII or Kirk. RGIII will be getting accustomed to his new ACL while Kirk is one-dimensional and an easier QB for defenses to game-plan against. I don't see how the Redskins are the preseason favorites to win the NFC East, which is not weak by any means.

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  3. I'm always cautious to compare anybody to Peterson just because his body is freakish. But in terms of ACL injuries Jamal Charles and he are the best comparisons simply because they were so recent. Plus, they take an inordinate amount of hits from giant defensive players. If their knees can hold then maybe RGII's can too.

    Captain Kirk, as you say, isn't totally one dimensional: he can run enough to be considered "athletic," and he's got some excellent flow. He may not be good for much else.

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