State of the Wizards

I can't remember the last time I wrote about the Washington Wizards. That fact is probably more of a reflection upon the success of the Redskins (and how much fun they were to talk about), rather than the  sad state of the basketball franchise in our nation's capital.

Things were "good" for a few moments in recent weeks. John Wall- our lord and savior- has returned from his mysterious knee injury. The Wizards won four of his first six games, until, in typical Wizards fashion, they failed to adapt to, you know, other teams adapting to them.

John Wall likes to push the tempo offensively. Player X grabs the defensive rebound, slings the ball to Wall who takes off like a rocket towards the opposing rim. Wall is one of the NBA's fastest players from one end of the court to the other, and when the opposing defense doesn't get back to slow Wall its a relatively easy two points for Washington.

Problem is that if you and I both can see this, NBA coaches can definitely see this. And that's essentially what happened in the Philadelphia game on January 30th. John pushed the ball like he does and, instead of weaving through players jogging back on defense, he was met with pressure. John Wall apparently doesn't deal well with pressure.

At Philadelphia he shot 3-12 for 9 points, chipping in 6 assists and 5 turnovers. Most of Wall's value lies with his explosiveness and ability to attack the rim and get high-percentage looks. Thus far in 2013, Wall shoots 63% at the rim and 31% from everywhere else- both on a career high pace.

The team only scored 84 points in the loss at Philly, their second lowest point total since John Wall's return. If defenses are going to adapt to Wall's transition inklings, the Wizards are going to need to adapt themselves. Eat or be eaten as it were.

Published in a January 31st Washington Post article, Martell Webster harps on the importance of adaptation. "That's the way this league is. It's all about adjustments...Teams are going to get a whiff of your game plan and they're going to try to do everything they can to deter you." Now that teams know that the Wizards like to run teams will game-plan to stop it. And while the Wizards by no means should give up this aggressive style of play (they're young in attacking positions), they do need to make a better effort in diversifying their scoring ability.

Even with the return of John Wall, the Wizards still offer opponents the worst offense in the NBA. They are dead last in points-per-game (91.3) and field goal percentage (42.2%), and are in the bottom 10 in 3pt%, free-throw%, and turnovers. Not generally considered the ingredients of winning basketball. Indiana's offense has been equally anemic but they give up the second fewest points.

If it can be said that they have one, the Wizards saving grace might just be their defense. They allow 96.1 points-per-game, tied for 8th best in the league. Amazingly, it seems, the Wizards are able to keep games close and give themselves the opportunity to win late. Trevor Ariza and Emeka Okafor lead the way on defense, limiting opposing wings and attackers. John Wall is a plus defender who is be and athletic enough to bully around point guards, while everyone else does nothing. Jan Vesely plays "Hack-a-Shaq" with his defensive match-ups, and Jordan Crawford looks like he is guarding Manti Te'o's girlfriend on most possessions (and by that I mean he guards nobody).

The Wizards are closer to mediocrity than people think. Since Wall's return the Wiz are 6-5. Are they going to make the playoffs? Not likely. But with all their pieces healthy it is not inconceivable that they post a winning- or close to it- record in the second half of the season. The issue, as always, has been the offense.

The Wizards half court offense is a disaster. They are like Lindsay Lohan Level when it comes to discipline. Jordan Crawford is a black hole (once you give him the ball you aren't seeing it again that possession) and their bigs, minus the seldom used Trevor Booker and Jan Vesely, are slow. Okafor, especially recently, has shown signs of competence, averaging 13.4 points and 14.6 rebounds in his last five games. But, as a whole, this unit does not offer much offense. (I'm big on Kevin Seraphin, but he is a defensive liability and therefore doesn't play the minutes his offense would justify).

Anyway, for the Wizards to remain competitive they must improve their half court sets. Transition offense is a key component for many contending teams (i.e. the Thunder), but a large percentage of a teams' offense comes from set plays. The Wizards have a capable creator in John Wall (how capable is a topic for another day) and shooters in Bradley Beal and Webster who can spread the floor. They may not have talent enough to score in the 90's consistently- SHABAZZ 2014- but if John Wall is they player many think he is half court sets wouldn't look this difficult. Part of this disconnect in the half court must be blamed on coach Randy Whittman, a career winner only 32% of the time, who struggles to coach basketball players. If the Wizards could just play more disciplined, and maybe find some more reliable scorers, this offense could improve.

Then again, is second-to-last really that much better than last?