Top 5 Reasons Why I am Excited for the 2012-2013 Washington Wizards

Get well soon,  John!

Hi. Thanks for visiting. Since you clicked on this I can assume that you enjoy basketball and even may enjoy Washington Wizards' basketball. This enjoyment of basketball is good too because it will make the slow and painful descent of the NFL easier to swallow.

But the chances are that you don't enjoy Washington Wizards basketball. You might be a FAN of the Wizards but since The New Year Hangover of 2010, when the Shots Weren't Heard Around The World, being a Wizards fan has been difficult. The team deemed this incident "unacceptable," an understatement if there ever was one and have since attempted to scrub away all the blood shed in recent years. The Wizards traded two of the original big three, Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison, for six players no longer employed by the team. They tried to tank, and succeeded, ending with the 5th-best-odds of obtaining the Number 1 pick and ultimately winning the Draft Lottery. Wizards fans everywhere cheered when John Wall was picked. Then, it seemed, things started to fall into place: we picked up Kirk Hinrich and a pick (Kevin Seraphin) from the Bulls; we dumped Gilbert Arenas for Rashard Lewis (more on this later); dumped Hinrich for Jordan Crawford, and a pick (Chris Singleton) from the Hawks; and unveiled pretty awesome new jerseys.

That was two years ago. Then came last year. The John Wall and JaVale McGee Show that never happened. The team still had more clowns this side of a Bryce Harper post-game interview, and they needed to go. Exit: Flip Saunders, JaVale McGee, Ronny Turiaf, Nick Young, Rashard Lewis, and Andray Blatche. Enter:  Randy Wittman, Nenê, Emeka Okafor, Trevor Ariza, Bradley Beal, A.J. Price, Jannero Pargo, and Martell Webster.

This year we have some talent. We have some of the pieces. We have John Wall and Bradley Beal in the backcourt, a tandem of top picks more Washingtonians are down to get behind than Obama/Biden or Romney/Ryan. We have veteran role players poised to eat up big minutes and contribute both offensively and defensively. But we are missing a piece, and until we get that piece we will remain bad to mediocre. But, on to the positives.

Without further ado here is the Top 5:


Honorable Mention: Eva Kodouskova
This is Jan Vesely's girlfriend. The internet almost broke after he was drafted two years ago. She was left off from the original Top 5 list but after further thought I realized how much more excited I am to see her sitting on the sidelines, dissecting Jan's game play- she is the center for a Czech professional women's basketball team (VS Praha if you actually care)- than any of the other 5 reasons I picked. But because this post is about basketball, and not my personal taste for Eastern Bloc women, I felt the need to relegate her to Honorable Mention status. Glad I got that one off my chest.

5. No Rashard Lewis, No Andray Blatche

MJ no longer walking through that door

I hear you smiling. Being between a rock and a hard place as the Wizards have been for the past years has sucked much of the fun out of watching this team. This year both of these guys are out of town; Blatche to Brooklyn and Lewis to Miami, giving Wizards fans two big reasons to celebrate. Andray Blatche left the Wizards with a career line of 9.9PPG, 5.4RPG, while shooting 45% from the field, which doesn't paint him as a terrible player. And to be honest his 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 campaigns showed us some of Blatche's potential, as he posted career highs in every relevant category other than games played and blocks. Then the lockout happened and he no longer treated his body as if it belonged to a professional athlete. He became unusable, dogging it nearly every single night and giving less effort than Ben Affleck acting career from 1997-2008. Getting benched for "lack of conditioning," usually results in a non-amicable separation, and that's essentially what happened. He got kicked out of the Wizards bar- he didn't have to go home but he certainly couldn't stay in Washington. If you are a professional athlete you should at least invest in a Bow-Flex. Or a stationary bike, those take very little effort.

The Rashard Lewis problem was simple. The Wizards traded for him and his untradable contract to unload Arenas and his untradable contract, and that whole gun thing. But then Lewis stunk up the gym.  An almost 39% career three point shooter in his 12 seasons prior to joining the Wizards, Lewis shot 34% and 24% (before a knee injury ended his season in February) in the two seasons he spent in Chocolate City- both bottom 5 career percentages. Lewis, always a guy who could fill it up and stroke threes became a black hole and a defensive liability, but was still under contract on his backloaded six-year $118 million dollar contract. You can debate the acquisitions of Okafor and Ariza, especially considering the size and lengths of their contracts (together they are owed 43 million over the next two years) but their defensive pedigrees make them especially interesting considering the Wizards defensive inefficiencies in previous years.

4. Randy Wittman
The Washington Post calls Wittman a "hard-nosed taskmaster who isn't afraid to hurt players' feelings to get the desired results." This is no longer the Gilbert Arenas Era Wizards, this isn't even the Cinnamon Challenge Wizards, this is a Wizards team built on hard work, defensive intensity, rebounding, and hustle. All clichés, but all true enough. This is a team destined to go through some growing pains, sure, but Wittman has said all the right things and all the goofballs are gone so there is reason to hope he can stick around for a few years. Hopefully he will be popular enough that if he offered 10 free burrito's he could give away more than one.

3. John Wall
This one felt like a cop out because John Wall is obviously the most important player for the 2012-2013 Wizards. Maybe I could have picked someone more under the radar. But then it was obvious that he should be included because he is the face of the franchise that is frantically rebuilding to appease him. He is entering his third year in the NBA after being selected with the No. 1 overall pick, so expectations at this point in his career are sky high for Mr. Wall. Assuming the stress injury in his knee heals on schedule and he can return to the lineup before December he gives the Wizards a special kind of talent. His averages in PPG, RPG, APG and TO's last year were nearly identical to his rookie season, but what has Wizards fans excited, or depressed, depending on your personality, is his shooting numbers. He shot 42.3% from the field last year, which is really not that good for a player of his supposed caliber. But it is markedly better than his 40.9% as a rookie. He has always been an effective finisher around the basket, and if he can improve his midrange shooting he gives this team the offense it desperately needs. His three point shooting is another matter entirely. He does not take that many threes, but when he does he misses them. He is Dos Equis Least Effective Three Point Shooter, but for the Wizards to have any chance at relevancy this season he has become a competent shooter. The Wizards are starting to put some pieces around him, if John Wall is destined to take the leap and become a Top-25 player in the NBA, this is the year. But remember, before any of this in order to ball like Wall you gotta do the dance.

2. Big Men
The names "JaVale McGee," "Andray Blatche," and "Rashard Lewis" give Wizards fans PTSD. Or, if they don't they should. Flashbacks of missed three pointers, missed ally-oops, ill-advised ally-oops, terrible shot selection, cinnamon challenges, YouTube videos filled with lowlights, and being too out of shape to play in games, dance in my head like visions of sugarplums. This years team has Okafor, and his career double-double. There's Trevor Ariza who matches his defensive intensity with strong three point shooting and a strong ability to finish. Trevor Booker, the 6-8 banger who shoots 54% from the field, who crashes the defensive glass like an all-star, and is built like a brick house, promises to give the Wizards quality minutes off the bench (or starter until Nenê comes back). Speaking of Nenê, if he can stay healthy- plantar fasciitis is known to linger- will give the Wizards a veteran inside force who can grab rebounds and who has a much better offensive game than Booker. Jan Vesely was one of the single most improved Wizards over the course of last season and there is reason to believe that he can continue to get better and cash in on his considerable potential. He shoots a high percentage, 54%, can grab a few rebounds and plays high energy defense. If he can curb some of the dumber fouls he makes and can stay on the court for longer periods of time he has the potential to mature into a key piece moving forward and top five scoring option.

Among the Wizards big men the one who I am most excited for is Kevin Seraphin. He is 22 and is entering his third season in the NBA after being taken in the first round. He played for France in the Olympics over the summer, and though they didn't medal or really come close to doing so, his excelling on a team with NBA guys like Tony Parker, Boris Diaw, and Nicholas Batum should bode well for his confidence coming in to the season. Seraphin played in 57 games last year and put up 7.9PPG, 4.9RPG, and 1.3BPG, all statistics he more or less doubled from his rookie season. When you look at the 21 games he started on the season, however, the numbers become more impressive: 14.3PPG, 7.3RPG, and 1.8BPG. With Nenê out for the foreseeable future, Seraphin seems likely to poach his minutes and cash in on his impressive potential.

1. Bradley Beal

The future is bright. 

This one was obvious as soon as John Wall clocked in at 3. Bradley Beal was the third pick in the NBA Draft- a draft they tell is one of the deepest in memory- and, with the Wizards' lack of depth at the guard spots, will be expected to contribute right away. This is a guy whose shooting ability has been compared to Ray Allen on many an occasion, who, at 6-3 pulled down 6.7 rebounds a game in college, and who doesn't need to dominate the ball to put up numbers (shout out Nick Young!). He and Wall create a back court so promising, so young, that it's almost hard not to be excited about this potential duo. All they need is a nickname. He will likely struggle at the beginning of the season, with Wall's early injury forcing him to contribute heavily from the start, but his make up, mental toughness, and obvious talent will help him overcome these early obstacles on route to a highly successful freshman campaign. Plus, he is one of the hungriest players in the league according to twitter. So there's that.

Are the Washington Wizards going to contend for the playoffs this year? In all likelihood, probably not. There are certain scenarios, however, where the Wizards can be successful. The sooner Nenê comes back the better. He gives them scoring, rebounding, and a dominating low post presence. If John Wall comes back on schedule and plays up to the level everyone thinks he can reach, if Bradley Beal develops quickly, and if Kevin Seraphin can make the leap from bench player to bona fide starter the Wizards can be good. They can't be great. Their ceiling lies somewhere around the 7th or 8th seed in the relatively underwhelming Eastern Conference probably. Early projections have the Raptors possibly sneaking into the playoffs so, really, anything is possible. Just ask Kevin Garnett.

Tonight is game one of 82. It's a long season. We may not be good, at times we may not be exciting, but, as compared to years past you will be able to enjoy Washington Wizards basketball this year. And isn't that what really matters?

Yeah you're right. There's always next year. Prediction: 32-50, well out of the playoffs.

What are Stephen Strasburg’s Chances at Winning the Cy Young?

I love late August. It’s early enough that the standings, statistics and award races can radically change by seasons end, but it’s also late enough to justify spending time dissecting these things. This August is a little different for Washington Nationals’ fans because, since 2005, we are actually competing for a spot in the playoffs. And with this success come the spoils.

Several Nationals players are currently in consideration for postseason awards, none more notably than our ace, and frequent SportsCenter topic, Stephen Strasburg.

Today (8/15) is Stras-mas- or the one day out of the week where Strasburg pitches. Everyone in D.C. celebrates, all in different ways. We all know about Stephen Strasburg. The hype. The innings limit. The electric stuff and impressive statistics. What we don’t know is if he will win the Cy Young Award this season.

He has the statistics: 13-5, 2.90ERA, 166K’s, and the Nationals have the best record in baseball. In any other year wins this race easily. This year, however, it’s debatable.

Strasburg has thrown 133.1 innings this year (as of 8/14) and if the length of his starts this season have been any indication (they have), Stras has about 5, or maybe more, starts before he reaches the 160 inning plateau and the Nationals shut him down. But I’m not as interested in the ethics or health effects behind the decision to shut him down, that’s for someone with a M.D. to discuss, I am more interested in whether or not Strasburg can win the Cy Young without pitching down the stretch run or in the playoffs.

If he does win he wouldn’t be the first person to win the Cy Young and not play in the playoffs, but that’s usually because the teams don’t qualify. The Washington Nationals are going to make the playoffs with or without Strasburg, there’s enough on this team to win every time out. There chances of winning the World Series without Strasburg? I don’t think they are great. But because he has put up elite statistics on the team with the best record in baseball, and has become our bona fide ace, it makes Strasburg the logical favorite to win the Cy Young.

But, for a player in his unique position, this award would come not so much as a shock, as it would a justification for the Nationals regular season. The Cy Young and MVP Awards are given out to the players who have the statistical regular season worthy of such accomplishments. My fear this year is that Stephen Strasburg is overlooked for the award because, in all likelihood, he will not figure into the Washington Nationals post-season exploits. The award is voted on prior to the start of the post season but it’s hard to imagine a world where Strasburg’s absence won’t have a negative effect on voters’ feelings toward him.

Strasburg this season ranks in the top 10 in Wins (T5), ERA (7), WHIP (8), K’s (1), K/9 (2), and WAR (T8).  By any statistical measure he must be considered one of the top 5 pitchers this season, and in terms of impact to his team he might be among the select few (see Verlander, Justin). The Nationals this season have been driven by the success of their pitching staff. It’s not that the offense has been bad, its just that they have been nearly as good as their record might suggest. The Nationals are 14^th in baseball in runs scored, behind such power houses as Milwaukee, Minnesota and Colorado. A .258 AVG/ .320 OBP/ .415 SLG are all 12^th or worse, indicating that the Nationals’ offense has not been playoff caliber, though they have picked it up of late. What this means is that for the Nationals to be competitive, let alone the league leaders, their pitching staff must be dynamic. And it has. Jordan Zimmerman, Gio Gonzalez, and Strasburg all have legitimate claims to the Cy Young, and Edwin Jackson and Ross Detwiler are arguably the best 4-5 combo in baseball. The staff is first in ERA and Batting Average Against, third in Strikeouts, first in quality starts, and second in earned runs. By any statistical measure the Nationals have the best pitching staff in all of baseball.

Does this mean the ace of the best pitching staff will win the Cy Young? It’s hard to say in a year with this many qualified candidates. Reigning Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw is a front runner, as are Johnny Cueto, R.A. Dickey, Cole Hamels, Jordan Zimmerman/ Gio Gonzalez, Ryan Vogelsong/ Madison Bumgarner/ Matt Cain. Hamels and Dickey are not likely to win, as their teams will finish well out of the playoff race, and that San Francisco triumvirate is probably going to split votes. Jordan Zimmerman is easily the most overlooked pitcher on this list, but statistically he deserves to be considered as a front-runner. But he will most definitely be overlooked. Gonzalez’ peripherals are not as good as some of the others on this list, but if a Nat other than Strasburg is going to get votes it’s him. Kershaw and Cueto have the best shot at the award of anyone on this list, and the race between that duo and Strasburg will likely last until the last weeks of the season.

When it comes down to it Stephen Strasburg deserves, at least, to be heavily considered for the Cy Young. He might not win, but it should not be because he is not playing in the post-season. If he has the stats, which he will, and if the Nats are still dominating, which they will, there is no reason he can’t win. The Nationals are cautious with their young arms, and while the playoffs are not guaranteed for anyone, if they can keep this arm healthy they have a great chance to run the National League East for years to come.

But until they Nationals shut him down, Stephen Strasburg runs out there every fifth day and gives his playoff team a chance to win. And we continue to celebrate Stras-mas.  

Those are Some Clown Stats, Bro.

Bryce Harper lights the world on fire. Always. Living near D.C. we have access to the Washington Nationals on TV just about every night (sometimes they bump the coverage in favor of the Orioles. A team less interesting than a Keeping up with the Kardashians episode). And with this access we are privy to all things Bryce Harper. And by that I mean all things Bryce Harper.

I love the commenting duo of Bob Carpenter and F.P. Santgelo. I do. But the amount of coverage/love/fantasizing they give to Bryce Harper makes me forget certain things. He is not hitting well of late, in fact one might go as far as to say that he is cold. But you would not really know it watching the telecast. Bryce Harper could go all Michael Barrett (1:41) and the guys would spin it to make him look like Batman.

As of this writing the Nationals are 71-44, good for the best record in baseball. Bryce Harper, the team’s #2 in the batting order for most of the season is sitting at .249/.328/.406 with a 0.9 OWAR, making him only slightly more valuable to the Nationals than, say, Roger Bernadina (at 0.8). Now this doesn’t take into consideration the things Bryce can do in the outfield and on the bases, where his 13 steals and general hustle do make him a valuable asset to the top of the Nationals order. His 59 runs scored puts him third on the team.

It seems with this kid, as with all 19-year-old ‘phenoms,’ there are two schools of thought to which people subscribe, and both are outrageously outspoken. Either you love the kid, or you hate him. You can’t be indifferent to Bryce Harper. You just can’t, and especially not in Washington. But it seems like recently more and more people are starting to jump off the Harper bandwagon, and for reasons that hold merit.

The 2012 Major League Baseball All-Star Game was held July 10^th. Bryce Harper was called up April 28^th, meaning he played in 63 games in that period of time. His triple slash stats: .282/.354/.472. With 8 homeruns and 25 RBI’s he probably was not the most deserving member of the All-Star festivities, but Bryan LaHair made the team so what the hell, right? As a 19-year-old with obscene expectations put on him it’s hard to say that he disappointed. If it wasn’t for Mike Trout it could have been said that Bryce lit the world on fire.

But then came the slump. A .174/.270/.257 line in the 29 games he has played in since, with 16 runs, 2 homeruns, 7RBI’s and only 19 hits. He is routinely the 7^th best hitter in a lineup that features a pitcher and a catcher whose career profile stinks of “defensive replacement” (the jury is still out on Kurt Suzuki). The fact that the Nationals are one of the hottest teams in baseball is a testament to the depth of the lineup; now with a healthy Jason Werth, a competent Roger Bernadina and (hopefully) a slightly above average Suzuki.

So the biggest non-Strasburg related question the Nationals must face in the coming weeks is, what to do with Mr. Harper. He has been terrible. The offense has been clicking. At what point does it no longer make sense for the Nationals to forfeit 3-4 outs a game, especially taking into account the pennant race and the importance of winning the division and therefore not playing in the one game wild card matchup sans Strasburg.

Conventional wisdom says that Harper will not be benched. His continued development is too important for the future of the Nationals for him to remain on the team and ride the bench. If he is going to be on the big club, he needs to play. He needs to learn and understand the things that it will take for him to succeed, whether it’s extra video sessions, more time on the tee, or even mental exercises that keep him on a more even keel, he needs to figure it out.

In my opinion Bryce Harper is exhausted. His body and mind have worn out through the course of the season to the point where he will no longer have the same amount of success he did earlier in the season. The same argument is generally made when rookies come up, succeed, and then eventually fall into mediocrity. They say that the pitchers have figured them out and that now the whole league knows their tendencies and how to get them out (see Francoeur, Jeff). I don’t think that is the case with Harper. His problem stems from over analyzing himself and his failures. Bryce Harper’s approach to his at bats is poor, or at least it has been. He puts bad swings on off-speed pitches in hitters counts, he chases pitches out of the strike zone, he doesn’t protect the plate with 2 strikes enough or he goes out of his way to do that. However, to be honest, all hitters in the MLB do these things too. The good ones don’t dwell on their failures. Bryce Harper dwells. Watch a Nationals game. A Harper at bat in the first inning is markedly different than a 0-3 Harper hitting in the eighth. He presses. He expects himself to get a hit every time he walks up to the plate, but it he doesn’t he considers it a colossal failure. Until he can alleviate some of that pressure he puts on himself, and come to terms with the fact that his average will not hover around .500 he is going to struggle. But that is okay for now, because he needs to.

So the question is, what is Bryce Harper? Is he the low average 30-40 homerun guy we thought would put up A-Rod numbers? Or is he more of the .275/100R/20HR/20SB guy he looked like heading into the All-Star break? Time will tell. Comparing him to any historical figures at this point, while certainly justifiable in my opinion, doesn’t do much good. Raise your hand if you think Mike Trout is Mickey Mantle. But, for comparisons sake, lets look at Ken Griffey Jr. as a 19-year-old wunderkind: .264/16HR/61RBI/61R/16SB/.329OBP/.420SLG. Now Bryce (YTD): .249/10HR/32RBI/59R/13SB/.328OBP/.406SLG. I’m not saying he is going to become Ken Griffey Jr., but what’s to say he won’t?

 You want to jump off the bandwagon? Fine. It was getting a little crowded in here anyway.