Why We Don’t Play “What If” in D.C.

First an aside: sorry I have been gone so long, loyal readers, I have spent the better part of the last three weeks I have been locked in a dark Pakistani room while Jason Clarke assaulted my body, mind, and spirit, trying to get me to talk. Unless he wanted me to analyze some obscure “classic” work of literature (I’m pretty confident I know everything about “Pride and Prejudice” at this point in my life- one of the many marketable skills of an English major) or give my opinion on the RGIII injury, I don’t think I had anything to offer him.

Plus, no way he’s getting me to break. I can photosynthesize my own energy like a plant.

What I want to talk about today is not Zero Dark Thirty, nor is it any other Oscar-worthy films that I had high hopes for but ultimately disliked (Django Unchained), I want to talk about Bleacher Report.

I like Bleacher Report not just usually, but most of the time. I find that they have good writers and interesting articles. So naturally while making my rounds of the Internet (it goes: e-mail, Grantland, Yahoo!, BR, ESPN, CNN) I came across an interesting little article (read it here) grading the Redskins draft in hindsight. Grading a draft in retrospect is a fun little exercise, especially when you can make fun of Eagles fans. But one year later? Seems a little too soon. The author does call it a “way-too-early review” of the 2012 Draft (an understatement considering the ink on the 2012 season has barely dried), but my issue goes further than simply grading Alfred Morris an “A+” draft pick.

The author suggests in the article an alternate reality. One in which the Redskins do not take RGIII, keep the draft picks they traded in order to land the No. 2 pick, and instead use the No. 6 selection.

The ‘Skins then select Morris Claiborne with the 6^th pick and select Russell Wilson with the 3^rd Round pick (would have been 69^th, we traded down to 71^st). (The Redskins selected Josh LeRibeus with the 71^st.)

Here is my issue with this: it’s fine to say “Alfred Morris as a 6^th Round pick? Wow what a great draft selection.” But when you start saying things like “Alfred Morris was a 6^th Round pick? Why didn’t everyone take him?” things become muddled, and your opinions as a sports fan slip further away from reality.

When you start playing that what if game, well, that’s when things get dangerous. What if the Redskins hadn’t traded for the No. 2 pick, selected Morris Claiborne, and then selected Russell Wilson?

First of all, if we’re being honest with ourselves, the Redskins wouldn't have done that. We were always down for RGIII. And now that we know that we can begin.

Morris Claiborne was going to be a Cowboy. If you paid ANY amount of attention to Draft coverage last year you knew that the Cowboys needed secondary help, badly. However, they weren't going to get it with that 14^th pick. The best secondary players: Claiborne, Mark Barron, and Stephon Gilmore, were locked in as Top-10 guys. EVERYONE knew the Cowboys were moving up to get one of the three, we just didn’t know where. If the Redskins keep that No. 6 pick the Top-5 changes, but rather unpredictably.

I’d propose a what if game myself, just to prove my point, but it strikes me as hypocritical. So I won’t.

In 2011 Dallas’s defense ranked league average or worse in every major statistical category. Their pass defense was horrendous, the Rob Ryan led unit hemorrhaged yards through the air. After they ditched Terrence Newman in the off-season they were in need of a Cornerback. Jerry Jones decided they were getting Morris Claiborne, and when Jerry Johnson wants something he gets it. Thank goodness for capitalism.

The Redskins needed- and still need- help in the secondary so Mark Barron wouldn't have been an outrageous selection for them at No. 6. They also desperately needed a Quarterback, and though unlikely that RGIII would have fallen to them, there were no other Quarterbacks worthy of a Top-10 pick. The author of the article suggests that the Redskins could have taken Russell Wilson at No. 6? Are you kidding me?

Russell Wilson was not a prospect. He was a draftable player who many thought was mature beyond his years, but not the bona fide stud he played like at times in 2012. At the NFL Draft Combine Wilson was given a grade of 68.5 out of 100, a number categorizing him as a “Draftable Player.”

The categorization defines him as: “A prospect with the ability to make a team as a backup/role player.”

Mike Mayock was high on Wilson, shouting at us through dangerously intelligible lisp , “I can’t tell you how much I like this kid…Not only can he be a competent back up and change-of-pace quarterback, but I think someday he can be a starting-quality player.” 

Basically the scouts hedged their bets. He could become a starter, but also might not. Gee, thanks. Pretty sure everyone fits this category, though. Should I take him instead of RGIII?

Short answer? No.

We know the pedigree by now. Heisman, 4.4 speed, smart, amiable, marketable (he's the only reason I eat Subway). He was graded as a 95, an impact player with the “ability/intangibles to become a Pro Bowl player.” 95 is the cut off point between “Immediate Starter” and “Future Hall of Famer,” and also the second best grade doled out in 2012 (behind Andrew Luck's 97).

Transport yourself to April 2012 for a moment. Had you suggested Russell Wilson was a better draft pick than RGIII not only would you have been given a pink slip, you would have jumped by Bogs and "the sisters." (Wait, my bad, that's from "Shawshank Redemption").

From our perspective today, January 27^th, it’s easy to write off the Redskins decision to select Robert Griffin III. His health is in flux and it is unclear when (or if) he will return to his pre-injury level of effectiveness. He is a Pro-Bowl caliber player when healthy, but even RGIII optimists are worried about his knee.

But let’s be clear about one thing: RGIII at his best is better than Russell Wilson at his best. Wilson plays for a better team and has a Top-5 defense to protect his leads; Robert Griffin III’s defense (at full strength) is slightly better than league average. Isolate these players individually, however, and you would be remiss to pick Wilson.

Wilson’s best qualities, the ones everyone raves about, are his speed and his intangibles (leadership, make-up, etc). RGIII has those same qualities and they are better. His speed is superior to Wilson’s, and his leadership is close to Ray Lewis Level in terms of effectiveness. He put the city of D.C. on his back like Atlas and gave Football starved fans in the District something to nix the hangover from Baseball season.

I acknowledge its only been a year, but when you think D.C. Football you think RGIII; when you think Seattle Football I’m not sure you think Russell Wilson. D.C. fans are crazy about RGIII in ways that border on unhealthy. I haven’t done it, but if you polled residents of our nation’s capital I'm confident he would win in an election against Obama. He has become a mythic cult figure in the city, appealing to every citizen regardless of demographic. Bryce Harper is a polarizing figure, so is (to a rapidly declining extent) Alex Ovechkin. Neither is as big as Robert Griffin. EVERYONE loves the guy.

For years Redskins fans have been caught between the Scylla and Charybdis of Quarterbacks: Rex Grossman and John Beck. Enter: Robert Griffin III. He brought us to the playoffs, and he infected us with his charm. He freed us from watching horrible Football. He, almost single-handedly, rejuvenated Football in D.C.

Is Russell Wilson is a nice player? Sure. Do Redskins fans wish that they selected him instead of shelling out the draft picks it took to get Griffin? No. Please don’t ask us again.

We have a lot of pride in the District; we also get defensive when people who know nothing about our teams interject their opinions. Today, I’m taking Robert Griffin. Tomorrow? I’m taking Robert Griffin. I’m already pissed that the Capitals stink, don’t make me go Wayne Brady.

A Wild 48 Hours

RGIII Injury

After a quick 14-0 start by the Redskins, things went downhill once RGIII tweaked his already tender knee in the first half. Many fans felt like Coach Shanahan should have put Kirk Cousins into the game in order to pull out the victory, however, RGIII demanded that he stay in the game and Shanny did not disagree. As we all know, this turned out disastrously with RGIII tearing his LCL- and possibly his ACL- when he could not get to a low snap and crumpled to FedEx field’s embarrassingly terrible conditions.

While I believe that Shanny needed to take Robert out of the game regardless of what the player was telling him, I have never played football and do not know what it is like to feel the need to give everything you have in order to win a playoff game. Robert knew the risk he was taking with his body and felt that it was well worth it. Hopefully the surgery that takes place tomorrow (Jan. 9th) will confirm the hope that the ACL injury shown on his MRI is from the original injury when he was at Baylor and he will be healthy and at full speed for the start of next season. However, if things do not work out that way, it appears as though the selection of Kirk Cousins in last year’s draft will certainly be a great one. 

Emergence of Bradley Beal

I was one of the many fans who, once hearing of the Bradley Beal & Chris Thornton for James Harden deal, laughed out loud about the shear ineptitude of the Wizards franchise. If Ted Leonsis isn’t willing to fire GM Ernie Grunfeld for his inability to draft players or do anything well other than make trades only after his original plan falls apart, or spend the money necessary to put a playoff-caliber team on the court, then why should I be asked to support the team? After what I saw last night and the past few games from Beal, however, I have begun to change my tune. The rookie from University of Florida has dropped 20+ points in three of his last five games and has started to shoot the ball with confidence. For one of the youngest players in this league, it is great to see him finally start to come into his own. Hopefully he will build on the past few games and start to play as more of a leader and go-to-scorer for this young Wizards squad.

Resigning of Adam LaRoche

According to a person with knowledge of the deal, which LaRoche has signed after passing a physical Tuesday (Jan 8th), he will earn at least $24 million over two years. He will make $10 million in 2013 and $12 million in 2014. The contract includes a mutual option for a third year worth $15 million. If the option is not picked up, however, LaRoche will receive a $2 million buyout. This is a great deal for the Nats because it locks up their Gold Glove first baseman for two years, ensuring that the lefty will remain a constant threat in the middle of the Nats lineup for a few more seasons. In addition, the option for a third year allows for Ryan Zimmerman to move to first base while Anthony Rendon takes over at third base (unless the Nats end up trading Danny Espinosa, in which case Rendon could play second base). Now that the LaRoche signing is complete, GM Mike Rizzo must trade away Michael Morse, a player who no longer has a place in the lineup after the offseason addition of Denard Span. Hopefully the Nats will receive a pitching prospect (a starter) and an established reliever (desperately needed) in return for the slugger. While LaRoche may not be able to repeat last season's offensive production, his elite first base defense will keep him a vital piece as the Nats look to defend their NL East title in 2013.

J.P. "F---ing" Howell

Friday night the Los Angeles Dodgers agreed to terms with J.P. Howell on a one year deal worth $2.85 million plus performance bonuses. Howell, 29, had a 3.04 ERA in 50 1/3 innings in 2012 as a member of the Tampa Bay Rays. Why the Nationals were interested in Howell-and where most of his value lies- is his ability to get left handed hitters out. In 2012 left-handed hitters batted only .200 against him.

Unfortunately for the Nationals they had keyed into Howell as a prime addition to their bullpen, specifically to match-up with left-handed hitters in late game situations. With Howell off the free agent market the left-handed pitching options remaining aren't tremendous. Howell was arguably the best lefty to begin with, and now with him gone the Nationals are going to have to look in other directions to find the help they need.

It's true that having a lefty who can come out of the bullpen to match up with left-handed hitters is not a necessity for MLB teams. Right-handed hitters face right-handed pitchers all the time and little to no deal is made out of these match-ups. Conventional baseball wisdom suggests that, when a pitcher and a hitter pitch or bat with the same hand, the pitcher typically has the advantage. This holds true for lefties because they are less common in MLB lineups than righties. Do the statistics actually back up such "conventional wisdom?"Not especially. It also seems counterintuitive that a Major League team would go out of its way to create a lefty-lefty situation when that lefty pitcher is not the best option that the team has in its bullpen. Would I not want my best pitcher pitching in the highest leverage situations? Of course not. I don't care what side of the plate the hitter digs his cleats in to, because conceivably my best pitcher should be able to get him out.

That's why the Nationals non-signing of J.P. Howell is not that big of an issue. Certainly not as large as talking heads would have one believe. Lefties add to the strength of a bullpen in the sense that they are less than 33% of total pitchers and aren't seen as frequently.

But to think that somehow lefty relievers have a huge advantage over righty relievers is foolish. Over the course of his career, Tyler Clippard has held left-handed hitters to a .186 average and fellow bullpen-mate Ryan Mattheus has fared similarly well, keeping lefties in check with a .214 average. The Nationals also re-signed Zach Duke, but with Tom Gorzelanny gone Duke will likely find himself exclusively in Middle or Long Relief.

The Nationals don't need a lefty in the bullpen as badly as they need quality arms. Righty, lefty, that crazy dude who pitches with both, it doesn't matter. Right now the Nationals have four quality arms coming out of their bullpen (Clippard, Drew Storen, Mattheus, and Craig Stammen). I'm not crazy about Zach Duke and his 4.52 career ERA and .305 Batting Average Against, nor do I think Henry Rodriguez will make a splash for the Nationals again.

Problem is that the relief pitching market is not at all enticing. There are (potential) Nationals retreads like Jon Rauch, Matt Capps, and Chien-Ming Wang; there are potential high-risk high- reward types in Francisco Rodriguez, Jose Valverde, and Kyle Farnsworth, but these guys aren't actually worthwhile. The market for players is set up in such a way that relievers are paid a premium that they actually aren't worth. Remember Heath Bell? Yeah. Bullpens are, whether you agree with the system or not, anchored by a closer and feature several complimentary pieces. The MLB season is long enough that pitchers in the bullpen are used frequently and can become fatigued. This necessitates a deeper bullpen that can drag a team through the doldrums of June, July, and August. Nationals pitchers threw 1468 1/3 innings in 2012, good for third in the league. It stands to reason that the Nationals would like a deep bullpen to take the stress off their starting rotation, three of whom (Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Dan Haren) have had some kind of significant injury within the past three seasons.

The question then becomes: how do the Nationals bolster their bullpen? How indeed?

The best option for the Nationals at this point would be to resign Adam LaRoche (who will eventually cave to the Nationals 2 year offer) and then trade Michael Morse for bullpen help. Initially I thought that Morse would attract a decent prospect, but the Nationals need for bullpen is now more pressing.

The two teams that have shown the most interest in Morse have been the Seattle Mariners and Toronto Blue Jays, but would also be a good fit on a hand-full of other teams as well (looking at you Baltimore, don't think I can't see you there). The Mariners don't exactly have baseball's best bullpen, nor are they dripping with quality arms they can dispose of- Danny Hultzen obviously, but Morse isn't fetching my fellow UVA brother. The Blue Jays are an intriguing partner in this because they do have a surplus in arms. Guys like Brad Lincoln, Brett Cecil, and Aaron Loup (a lefty!!!) are reasonably attainable for Morse and would significantly upgrade the Nats bullpen. In terms of the Orioles, a team I have- with no justification other than gut feel- added to the list of Morse suitors are intriguing as well. They can offer the Nationals guys like Zach Britton or Wei-Yin Chen- or several other lefty pitchers- and have a need for Morse now that their starting First Baseman, Mark Reynolds, departed to Cleveland.

So, while Nationals fans may have been cursing the name of J.P. Howell after he took his talents to Chavez Ravine, it's not all that serious. It's like drinking too much on New Years Eve. You are going to hate it the next day but eventually you'll be okay. Just know that when the Nationals play the Dodgers at home in July I'll be the guy with the offensive J.P. Howell sign. I'm not weird, just determined.