Friday night the Los Angeles Dodgers agreed to terms with J.P. Howell on a one year deal worth $2.85 million plus performance bonuses. Howell, 29, had a 3.04 ERA in 50 1/3 innings in 2012 as a member of the Tampa Bay Rays. Why the Nationals were interested in Howell-and where most of his value lies- is his ability to get left handed hitters out. In 2012 left-handed hitters batted only .200 against him.
Unfortunately for the Nationals they had keyed into Howell as a prime addition to their bullpen, specifically to match-up with left-handed hitters in late game situations. With Howell off the free agent market the left-handed pitching options remaining aren't tremendous. Howell was arguably the best lefty to begin with, and now with him gone the Nationals are going to have to look in other directions to find the help they need.
It's true that having a lefty who can come out of the bullpen to match up with left-handed hitters is not a necessity for MLB teams. Right-handed hitters face right-handed pitchers all the time and little to no deal is made out of these match-ups. Conventional baseball wisdom suggests that, when a pitcher and a hitter pitch or bat with the same hand, the pitcher typically has the advantage. This holds true for lefties because they are less common in MLB lineups than righties. Do the statistics actually back up such "conventional wisdom?"Not especially. It also seems counterintuitive that a Major League team would go out of its way to create a lefty-lefty situation when that lefty pitcher is not the best option that the team has in its bullpen. Would I not want my best pitcher pitching in the highest leverage situations? Of course not. I don't care what side of the plate the hitter digs his cleats in to, because conceivably my best pitcher should be able to get him out.
That's why the Nationals non-signing of J.P. Howell is not that big of an issue. Certainly not as large as talking heads would have one believe. Lefties add to the strength of a bullpen in the sense that they are less than 33% of total pitchers and aren't seen as frequently.
But to think that somehow lefty relievers have a huge advantage over righty relievers is foolish. Over the course of his career, Tyler Clippard has held left-handed hitters to a .186 average and fellow bullpen-mate Ryan Mattheus has fared similarly well, keeping lefties in check with a .214 average. The Nationals also re-signed Zach Duke, but with Tom Gorzelanny gone Duke will likely find himself exclusively in Middle or Long Relief.
The Nationals don't need a lefty in the bullpen as badly as they need quality arms. Righty, lefty, that crazy dude who pitches with both, it doesn't matter. Right now the Nationals have four quality arms coming out of their bullpen (Clippard, Drew Storen, Mattheus, and Craig Stammen). I'm not crazy about Zach Duke and his 4.52 career ERA and .305 Batting Average Against, nor do I think Henry Rodriguez will make a splash for the Nationals again.
Problem is that the relief pitching market is not at all enticing. There are (potential) Nationals retreads like Jon Rauch, Matt Capps, and Chien-Ming Wang; there are potential high-risk high- reward types in Francisco Rodriguez, Jose Valverde, and Kyle Farnsworth, but these guys aren't actually worthwhile. The market for players is set up in such a way that relievers are paid a premium that they actually aren't worth. Remember Heath Bell? Yeah. Bullpens are, whether you agree with the system or not, anchored by a closer and feature several complimentary pieces. The MLB season is long enough that pitchers in the bullpen are used frequently and can become fatigued. This necessitates a deeper bullpen that can drag a team through the doldrums of June, July, and August. Nationals pitchers threw 1468 1/3 innings in 2012, good for third in the league. It stands to reason that the Nationals would like a deep bullpen to take the stress off their starting rotation, three of whom (Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Dan Haren) have had some kind of significant injury within the past three seasons.
The question then becomes: how do the Nationals bolster their bullpen? How indeed?
The best option for the Nationals at this point would be to resign Adam LaRoche (who will eventually cave to the Nationals 2 year offer) and then trade Michael Morse for bullpen help. Initially I thought that Morse would attract a decent prospect, but the Nationals need for bullpen is now more pressing.
The two teams that have shown the most interest in Morse have been the Seattle Mariners and Toronto Blue Jays, but would also be a good fit on a hand-full of other teams as well (looking at you Baltimore, don't think I can't see you there). The Mariners don't exactly have baseball's best bullpen, nor are they dripping with quality arms they can dispose of- Danny Hultzen obviously, but Morse isn't fetching my fellow UVA brother. The Blue Jays are an intriguing partner in this because they do have a surplus in arms. Guys like Brad Lincoln, Brett Cecil, and Aaron Loup (a lefty!!!) are reasonably attainable for Morse and would significantly upgrade the Nats bullpen. In terms of the Orioles, a team I have- with no justification other than gut feel- added to the list of Morse suitors are intriguing as well. They can offer the Nationals guys like Zach Britton or Wei-Yin Chen- or several other lefty pitchers- and have a need for Morse now that their starting First Baseman, Mark Reynolds, departed to Cleveland.
So, while Nationals fans may have been cursing the name of J.P. Howell after he took his talents to Chavez Ravine, it's not all that serious. It's like drinking too much on New Years Eve. You are going to hate it the next day but eventually you'll be okay. Just know that when the Nationals play the Dodgers at home in July I'll be the guy with the offensive J.P. Howell sign. I'm not weird, just determined.
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