A Wild 48 Hours

RGIII Injury

After a quick 14-0 start by the Redskins, things went downhill once RGIII tweaked his already tender knee in the first half. Many fans felt like Coach Shanahan should have put Kirk Cousins into the game in order to pull out the victory, however, RGIII demanded that he stay in the game and Shanny did not disagree. As we all know, this turned out disastrously with RGIII tearing his LCL- and possibly his ACL- when he could not get to a low snap and crumpled to FedEx field’s embarrassingly terrible conditions.

While I believe that Shanny needed to take Robert out of the game regardless of what the player was telling him, I have never played football and do not know what it is like to feel the need to give everything you have in order to win a playoff game. Robert knew the risk he was taking with his body and felt that it was well worth it. Hopefully the surgery that takes place tomorrow (Jan. 9th) will confirm the hope that the ACL injury shown on his MRI is from the original injury when he was at Baylor and he will be healthy and at full speed for the start of next season. However, if things do not work out that way, it appears as though the selection of Kirk Cousins in last year’s draft will certainly be a great one. 

Emergence of Bradley Beal

I was one of the many fans who, once hearing of the Bradley Beal & Chris Thornton for James Harden deal, laughed out loud about the shear ineptitude of the Wizards franchise. If Ted Leonsis isn’t willing to fire GM Ernie Grunfeld for his inability to draft players or do anything well other than make trades only after his original plan falls apart, or spend the money necessary to put a playoff-caliber team on the court, then why should I be asked to support the team? After what I saw last night and the past few games from Beal, however, I have begun to change my tune. The rookie from University of Florida has dropped 20+ points in three of his last five games and has started to shoot the ball with confidence. For one of the youngest players in this league, it is great to see him finally start to come into his own. Hopefully he will build on the past few games and start to play as more of a leader and go-to-scorer for this young Wizards squad.

Resigning of Adam LaRoche

According to a person with knowledge of the deal, which LaRoche has signed after passing a physical Tuesday (Jan 8th), he will earn at least $24 million over two years. He will make $10 million in 2013 and $12 million in 2014. The contract includes a mutual option for a third year worth $15 million. If the option is not picked up, however, LaRoche will receive a $2 million buyout. This is a great deal for the Nats because it locks up their Gold Glove first baseman for two years, ensuring that the lefty will remain a constant threat in the middle of the Nats lineup for a few more seasons. In addition, the option for a third year allows for Ryan Zimmerman to move to first base while Anthony Rendon takes over at third base (unless the Nats end up trading Danny Espinosa, in which case Rendon could play second base). Now that the LaRoche signing is complete, GM Mike Rizzo must trade away Michael Morse, a player who no longer has a place in the lineup after the offseason addition of Denard Span. Hopefully the Nats will receive a pitching prospect (a starter) and an established reliever (desperately needed) in return for the slugger. While LaRoche may not be able to repeat last season's offensive production, his elite first base defense will keep him a vital piece as the Nats look to defend their NL East title in 2013.

2012 Wizards: A Running Diary

What's been up loyal readers (the 8 of you who seem interested in my poorly constructed sentences and limited vocabulary)? How have you been? How did that thing you had to do last time turn out? It went well/ poorly you say? Congratulations!/ You kinda deserved it... Seriously, welcome back. Please don't leave.

The Wizards lost to the Milwaukee Bucks and Indiana Pacers since we've talked last and are now 0-5 which, if not for the utterly indescribable terribleness that is the Detroit Pistons, would make the Wizards the front runners for worst team in the NBA

The Wizards began last season 0-8 before finally getting that first elusive victory. But this is very much not last years team- in ways I have discussed previously, and in ways that should be obvious to everyone with a set of eyes and a passing interest in basketball. This years team is hard to figure out. The sum of the parts (solid) is not equal to the output (zero wins), though there is reason to believe that the Wizards are close to getting that first win. First, I don't think it's possible for a team to go winless over the course of a season- even though the 2011-2012 Charlotte Bobcats certainly tempted fate. And second, the Wizards haven't actually been playing all that bad.

So what if we are winless. We have played four games against pretty legitimate playoff contenders (Boston, Indiana, Milwaukee) and one game against a much better than we though Cleveland team. We are never going to win the NBA Championship with this group of players, but it is not out of the realm of possibility that we finish 9th or 10th in the Eastern Conference. Top to bottom the Eastern Conference really isn't that good this season. The Heat are the definite favorites to win the title again this year, but if you put me in a dark alley with the Celtics or the Hawks? I just don't think that I am that afraid of them.

We don't match up well with teams that feature explosive combo guards (i.e. Cleveland, Milwaukee) because our starting Point Guard right now, A.J. Price, is small and a defensive black hole. Bradley Beal is more athletic than Price but his best defense is going to be his ability to score more points than his match-up on a consistent basis. John Wall is a good defender, and when he comes back our defense is likely to improve, but the status and nature of his injury is worrisome. Balky knees does not a good basketball player make.

The biggest problem for the Wizards thus far has been their offense. Per Hoopdata the Wizards have the least efficient offense (points scored per 100 possessions) in the NBA this season with 91.3. For reference, the Bobcats efficiency last season? 92.3. Their defense last season was historically bad, but you can't win games if you don't score points, right? With a healthy John Wall this number is likely to improve, and with our defense ranking better than league average there is reason to think our fortunes could change in the coming months.

Or they could change tonight. Tonight (11/13) the Wizards play the Charlotte Bobcats in a game for the ages. The stadium will NOT be filled to full capacity; the only electricity in the building will be coming from the generators housed somewhere underneath the stadium; Michael Jordan's body will be there but his mind will be anywhere else (hopefully he is plotting to destroy Space Jam 2). There might be one hundred people on the planet who watch this game to be entertained, the rest likely due to some work commitment.

The Wizards are going to win this game. They are better than the Bobcats. They play better defense, and while they might not score as well they sure as hell pass and take care of the ball better than the Bobcats. Plus, the Bobcats start Brendan Haywood who we dumped years ago. Advantage Wizards.

The Bobcats are a good match up, on paper, for the Wizards. Kemba Walker, their starting Point Guard is small, an inefficient shooter, and nowhere near explosive enough to cause concern. He scores points like Nick Young or Jordan Crawford score points- if he shoots the ball enough some of them are bound to go in. Jeffrey Taylor, a rookie Shooting Guard has not played enough to get an accurate reed of his abilities (Gerald Henderson is likely to miss some time with a foot injury) but his size at 6-7 could pose match up problems for the 6-3 Beal. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is the X-factor in this game. The Wizards have no one to guard him and if he continues his hot shooting (47% on the season) he will cause the Wizards a great amount of pain. The Wizards big men (Seraphin, Okafor, Booker) are better then Brendan Haywood (!), The Artist Formerly Known as B.J. Mullins (Byron Mullins now), Bismack Biyombo, and Tyrus Thomas. As a whole, the Bobcats aren't that athletic, and don't have the kind of perimeter shooting to cause the Wizards problems.

We are going to win because the Wizards have to be better than the Bobcats. Michael Jordan cannot construct good teams, he can only play for them. We need to beat the Bobcats otherwise my faith in this Wizards team will be severely tested- if not shot. I know that the Wizards are bad, I'm not irrational, but they can't be Bobcat bad, right?

Can we just fast-forward to the June draft?

Lessons Learned: WIzards/ Celtics 11/7

Grab your $3,500 dollar Nike's and lets go back in time.

7:22 3rd Quarter: Rajon Rondo makes a bad pass, Emeka Okafor snags it and whips it to Trevor Ariza. Fast Break.

7:20: Ariza has the ball and is rocketing towards the basket with Bradley Beal, with only Kevin Garnett standing in the way.

D'oh!

7:18: Beal receives the pass and goes up for a contested layup over Garnett who hockey-checks the airborne Beal. Beal with one hand, while floating through the air in slow motion it seems, throws the ball off glass and into the basket. The whistle blows.

AND 1 for Bradley Beal.

The Wizards lead by 4 points.

Plays like this happen more than once during a basketball game so, realistically, nothing should have been remarkable about this play other than the fact that, in KG's mind, this clearly should not have been called a foul (he likes to complain about all the calls made against him).

Except it was remarkable. Why? This free throw attempted by Beal was the first for the Wizards on the night, and it came with 7 minutes left in the 3rd Quarter.

Is that bad?

Well, like my dad always says, it aint good. And it kind of encapsulates what the Wizards are missing in a conveniently short block of text: they have no playmakers. Bradley Beal does not really penetrate as much as he takes jump shots. A.J. Price is a league average player, if that, and while he may be good for a made three pointer or two he also forces countless jumpers, many of which kill possessions before they get a chance to start. (I initially wrote a paragraph bashing A.J. Price but ultimately felt like it was too much... maybe in another post?). The Wizards have Jordan Crawford, but he is harder to figure out Florida's election results, which, you know, is pretty difficult.

A.J. Price? Not impressed

Both Price and Crawford think they are playmakers but statistics and common sense beg to differ. The Wizards are so devoid of a playmaker that Martell Webster decided to break down the Celtics defense himself last night with 40 seconds left in the game, ultimately turning the ball over. I actually like Webster's game, but things that don't involve shooting are not really a part of it. Trevor Ariza, from what he has shown at this point in the season- and really since he stopped playing with Kobe- is not a starting Small Forward. He really hasn't been relevant since he left the Lakers after the 2009 season, as evidenced by the fact that his Wikipedia picture is him with the Lakers, and needs to have his minutes reduced. He plays good defense, sometimes. He also can't play offense. Cent for cent he might be the most overrated player in the NBA, and yet he starts for the 2012-2013 Washington Wizards.

"But," you say, "Martell Webster and Chris Singleton aren't starting Small Forwards either!" loud and obnoxiously and probably during some point in the last paragraph. No, they're definitely not. But that is just the nature of the Wizards this season. None of them is a great option, but- if I can channel my inner Tim McCarver- it's about finding the one who is the least bad. That's Webster. Singleton remains a viable option off the bench for his energy and defensive play, but he is never going to be a guy who plays more than 25 minutes a night. He might have a night like this one against Boston where he scores in double figures with a high shooting percentage with some rebounds, assists, steals and a dunk that makes Kevin Garnett look like a little boy, but not often.

Other than realizing that Trevor Ariza, in two words, isn't good, last night we saw that emergence of Kevin Seraphin. Last night marked the 18th straight game Seraphin scored in double figures, while also pulling down 9 boards. This was soured somewhat by his 6 turnovers and 5 personal fouls, which led to his Arizian plus/minus of -7. He is not a guy who is going to set the world on fire with his defense, but from him the Wizards are mostly looking for offense. He is on the court to score, and he can put it in the basket in a variety of ways. Obviously I am jumping the gun here, but he has the potential to be a more powerful Chris Bosh. He can post you up and score with either hand; he can make the midrange jumper; he can beat you with his quickness; and he can even piss you off until you just want to hit him- à la Kevin Garnett's Technical Foul last night. He doesn't need to light to world on fire on both ends of the floor, he just needs to continue to produce as he has and he becomes one of the five quality Wizards starters with John Wall (out indefinitely), Nenê (out indefinitely), Okafor (not so far), and Bradley Beal (maybe hopefully).

Speaking of Beal, his last matchup against this Celtics team (November 3rd) was a tough one. It was the kind of performance expected from a rookie against a veteran, physical, defensive minded team. Courtney Lee may never come close to the 55 points I scored with him in NCAA 2k7 versus Syracuse, but he plays the caliber defense that made the Celtics want to bring him in to guard Dwyane Wade. Last night Beal played well, part of which is no doubt due to Jason Terry guarding him all night (and actually having to play defense), but most of can be traced back to Beal himself. He was more confident last night than he has been with the Wizards, taking 15 shots, second to Seraphin with 19. He shot a rather pedestrian 40% overall but the fact that he is taking shots and acting like he is one of the Wizards best options, which he became the second he was drafted, is a good sign. He is going to have some hard times this season, probably until John Wall comes back and alleviates the production load for everyone, but the Wizards are going to keep him down in the deep end of the pool until he can learn how to swim.

The Wizards played well enough to win last night for about 3 1/2 Quarters. Then the Celtics turned up the defense pressure, and we came to realize just how much we miss John Wall- as if we didn't know already. The Wizards turned the ball over, they committed some bad fouls, and the Celtics escaped in Overtime. The Wizards played the Eastern Conference's likely No. 2 seed hard twice, coming close to winning both games, which is definitely a positive. But we saw just how flawed our guys are on both ends of the court, and how far away they are from relevancy.

This is the NBA: if you can't compete you might as well tank. And after this 0-3 start we clearly are not contenders. Assuming we stay at the same level, or even improve slightly, we are well on our way to a lottery pick. If we get the right piece we become a playoff team, if we get the wrong piece we fall into a circle of fan hell inhabited only by the Bobcats- where lottery picks go to die. So for now while we wait for our team to improve we can take solace in that we are not, in fact, the Bobcats.