It seems reasonable to ask this question given what happened last night at Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati, Ohio. It's early, and this loss means nothing in the grand scope of a 162 game season, but I find that over reactionary criticisms are best. Can the Nats really win the World Series?
The short answer: yes.
The longer answer (because I know you want to read on...it's been a while since I've posted):
The online baseball writer community has come to a consensus on the World Series, and they've decided that the Nationals will win it all. You can take my word for it or you can check here, or you can google World Series predictions and see that everyone and their mother with a blog likes the Nationals and the Tigers to meet in early October.
The bandwagon is crowded this season. Fret not, dear reader, I'm the pioneer driving that wagon and there are still good seats available.
When you talk Nats you talk balance. And besides the Nats' susceptibility to pinch-hit grand slams ("there was something in the air tonight," indeed) they are scary damn good. Gio Gonzalez might win the Cy Young award if Stephen Strasburg doesn't, and Jordan Zimmermann could be starting on Opening Day for a couple of contenders. I've talked at length about the acquisition of Dan Haren (I'm not crazy about it, his rather unfortunate debut notwithstanding). Giving up six runs- four home runs- in four innings doesn't exactly inspire confidence, especially when the guy is liable to roll over on the wrong side of the bed and land on the DL. The back of the bullpen is a strength, but with high pitch strikeout guys like Strasburg, Gonzalez, and Haren taking the ball 3/5th's of the time, the middle relievers are going to see quite a workout. No one wants to see that much of Zach Duke.
Statistics four games into the season are relatively irrelevant (unless your Chris Davis/ Mike Morse) so to point out the bottom of the lineup has been struggling is not something over which to raise cain. It is, however, something worth noting as the season develops. We threw a Adam Laroche $24 million in the hope that he could duplicate his career season in 2012, and he has treated Nats fans to a B.J. Upton level ofer. His .000 batting average is deceptive, though, he has been hitting the ball hard and it's only a matter of time before he starts finding grass instead of gloves.
For a lineup with Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman and Adam Laroche, it's surprising how important Ian Desmond and Danny Espinosa are to the Nats' success in 2013. They are both prolific strikeout machines who kill rallies with unabashed ferocity. Their like the anti-Red Bull. If they can contribute at or near their 2012 production levels the Nats are in for a fun season. If regression hits or their development stalls (or Desmond can't replicate a high .332 BABIP*) Nats fans are going to lose their patience with these strikeout kings and calls for super prospect Anthony Rendon will be heard from Pennsylvania Avenue to Freddy's from House of Cards.
The Nationals are good. Like, scary good. Their weaknesses are few and far between, and their balance is frightening. A lot of key players showed out last year, putting up some serious production. We know that Bryce, Zim, Laroche, Stras and Gio will get there numbers, it's a question of whether the unheralded guys can do the same. Can the bottom of the lineup consistently get on base enough for the top to drive them in? Can Dan Haren stay healthy and give them 150 innings of average pitching? Can Ross Detwiler replicate 2012? Can Zach Duke and Henry Rodriguez bridge the gap to the back of the bullpen without throwing away games?
On paper the Nats are almost certainly the best team in the National League but, unless you are playing something strange with baseball cards, the games aren't played on paper. I don't know that the Nats should win but they absolutely can. The National League is as strong as it has been in a while. And the Nats might just have the best team.
The cream usually rises to the top.
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*That's Batting Average on Balls in Play. You can read about it here. League average is usually .290 to .310
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