There is a light at the end of the tunnel for the Washington Wizards. It's either an escape from the tunnel of losing, or it's an oncoming freight train. The Wizards' draft pick this summer (June 27th) will go a long way to determining which one that ends up becoming.
As of this publication, the Wizards are 29-51 and playing poorly. Which is perfect if you are a Wizards fan and want to see them with a slightly better chance at potentially having a higher draft pick depending on whether or not ping pong balls are selected in the order in which they are anticipated. Or maybe David Stern will throw us a bone and let us pick in the Top-5. The Wizards have more losses than the Minnesota Timberwolves right now, but they both have 29 wins and are therefore in a battle for a chance at the 8th pick.
This is important because the players entering the NBA this season either are not that great, or will be projects and future D-League All Stars (I mean with all due respect. I wish I was a D-League All Star right now). The Wizards have some pieces in place for their future, and the right draft pick this summer would go a long way to the Wizards' chances at making the playoffs.
Plus the Wizards are in the Eastern Conference, where winning records for playoff teams are optional.
It will be interesting to see what the Wizards will do with the pick, given the needs of the team. Martell Webster is a free agent and the Power Forwards as a group have been underwhelming. Then, of course, there is the fascination with 7-footers that leads GM's to bonehead draft selections (and developing late-in-life alcoholism).
Assuming the Wizards get the 8th pick (a perfectly safe bet, he said sarcastically), there are a few players who will be available then that the Wizards will want to scoop. My goal here is to identify these players, determine how likely it is that the Wizards will take them, and critique their selection. There are six players I feel as though the Wizards will consider taking, and, in alphabetical order by last name, here they are:
ALEX LEN:
-This is a pick I detest with the full force of my being. Ok, he went to the University of Maryland so he'll be a "hometown"kid from Ukraine, and he'll bring his 7-1 sized body into the NBA where he can bang with the Beasts in the East (Note: unless you count Roy Hibbert, all the Beasts are in the West). Scouts, God bless them, rave about his potential. When I hear the word potential, however, I think "not good right now." At the 8th pick it would be a decent risk to take, but the last time the Wizards took a Eastern European project the result was Jan Vesely. So.
The Pro's for taking Len? He's athletic and he's big. The Con's? He's weak and rebounds poorly for a Center. He played collegiately in the ACC, an historically strong basketball conference. During his time in College Park there was no one near his size in the conference. If he is a Top-10 pick in a small (short) conference how does he only put up 12/8 and fail to make an All-ACC team? Obviously college success does not predict NBA success, and vice versa, but rebounding generally translates between the leagues. If you can rebound in college you can rebound in the NBA. You can't? You won't.
His defense is probably his best attribute. He is quick and long, and if anything he will be a plus defender in the NBA. The Wizards were a sneakily effective defensive team, ranking 7th in the NBA in scoring defense, and the addition of Len would only help. Emeka Okafor's contract ends after next season, and Trevor Ariza has a one year player option. Without those two the defense suffers. Len would be a welcome addition on that side of the ball, and if his offense develops at all he could become a critical contributor for a playoff team.
SHABAZZ MUHAMMAD:
-I love this pick. I love Shabazz Muhammad. I love lefty's. I love the fact that he is a volume shooter. I love his aggressiveness. I love how cool he is. I love his swagger. I love that his father falsified his birth certificate. Wait.
Shabazz will never be the best player on his NBA team, but he will be a contributor, and will contribute as soon as he steps on the court. He is strong, aggressive and has a monster wingspan (if you are playing the Jay Bilas Drinking Game you better start drinking). He is an offensive minded player, concentrated more with scoring than with just about anything. This style could make sense for the Wizards who were one of the worst (and most) offensive teams in the league. Don't expect much else from Shabazz, though, because he's not about those other things. I'm mean, why pass when you can score? And while we're at it, who really enjoys playing defense? You know what the best defense is? Scoring more points than your match up. It's all about the individual battles. Basketball ain't no team sport.
He relies heavily on his aggressiveness, something that he has used to dominate in high school and, to a lesser extent, in college. In the NBA everyone is aggressive, and the people who will D up on him will be able to body him in ways that he hasn't had to deal with much in the past two years. This style of play may well translate to the NBA, though, as Draft Express writes in their analysis of Shabazz:
"Muhammad's style of play is highly unconventional, as he rarely scores in isolation or pick and roll settings in the half-court, seeing just 6% of his offense in these situations. Instead, he gets most of his points leaking out in transition, moving off the ball, as a spot-up shooter, posting up relentlessly, crashing the offensive glass, and coming off short curls in the mid-range area where he's only forced to put the ball on the floor once or twice to get all the way to the basket. He gets to the free throw line nearly seven times per-40, which is a testament to his aggressiveness and scoring instincts more than anything, as well as his ability to overpower opposing players."
He is an interesting prospect. No. 1 coming out of high school to a relatively disappointing, if not entertaining, season at UCLA, Shabazz has been on the radar of draft scouts for some time now and has played with his game under an intense microscope. Is it possible that we, as armchair critics, as looking too hard to find flaws in a game good enough to go Top-10? Or are we justified in thinking that he was/will be overrated as a professional? Hard to say, but if you best comprobable NBA player is Nick Young...that's not reassuring.
KELLY OLYNYK:
-Right? This pick would probably not be a popular one. He's a 7-footer who is a legit low-post presence and one of the best college players from the 2012 season (his averages of 17.8 and 7.3 put him in the middle of the Player of the Year conversation). His biggest weakness, and the thing that will kill him in the NBA, is a lack of athleticism. He is the kind of old-school Center that no longer exists in the NBA today, and the kind of player the Wizards don't need.
With John Wall as the future of the franchise (supposedly), the Wizards need to collect complementary pieces around him that can benefit his up tempo game. A stationary big man does not. He is a good player who looks like his ability around the rim and to grab rebounds will translate to the NBA positively, his inability to hang on defense with the newest generation of Center/ Power Forward "hybrids" will remain a detriment.
I see his future home as more of a roll player on a contending team. Feed him the ball a few times per game and he can give you 6-10 points. The Wizards can, but they don't much play in the half court (and with John Wall's speed you can excuse them for pushing the ball in transition as much as they do) and so Olynyk makes little sense in Washington.
VICTOR OLADIPO:
-Ok fine. The chances Oladipo falls to Washington at 8 or 9 is slim. But this is my column, I do what I want.
When all is said and done and written about the 2013 NBA Draft, I believe Oladipo will be considered by all to have been the best player involved. He has rocketed up draft boards over the course of this past college season, thanks to a significant improvement on the offensive side of the ball. He has always been known as an explosive athlete; he 360 dunked in a game this season against Illinios:
GLENN ROBINSON III:
-You want a taller Oladpio? Maybe less defense but with more offense? You've come to the right place. Welcome, my loyal reader, to Glenn Robinson III. Quick caveat first: he has not declared and is supposedly on the fence about sticking around in Ann Arbor and playing for Michigan, or going to the NBA and playing for fat paychecks. Assuming that he does declare, however, GR3 (actually that feels forced...we'll just call him "Trey") will be an intriguing prospect for every team with a lottery pick.
His college numbers are impressive when you consider he was the 3rd or 4th option for most of the season. 11 PPG, 5.4 RPG, and .572 FG% are big time when Tim Hardaway Jr. and Trey Burke are doing most of the work anyway. Our "Trey" (Baby Big Dog) is athletic and explosive, and his shooting ability does not fall too far from the tree. He is 6-6, which would make him an undersized Small Forward, but he is quick enough to play Shooting Guard and long enough to play SF. He is not a defensive stopper like Oladipo, though he isn't a pariah like Shabazz either. Somewhere comfortably between.
His game is NBA ready, if not a little raw, and he would make a tremendous impact for the Wizards from day one. He can shoot, dunk, and is unselfish for someone who at best will play third fiddle in D.C. He is raw, but he would fit in well to the up tempo Wizards. He would stretch the floor and thrive in transition, creating a wildly entertaining Wizard squad. I'd consider getting in on the ground floor on some season tickets. Another year of college would help him no doubt, but you could say that about just about every person in our country. Seriously...look how bad we are in Math and Science!!!
CODY ZELLER:
-The consensus No. 1 pick before the season was played. Then the season was played and he was no longer the consensus No. 1 pick. Liberally apply the "that's why we play the games" cliche here. He didn't seem to improve much between his freshman and sophomore seasons at Indiana, posting nearly identical numbers. Who knows why. It could be an indication of his lack of work ethic (not likely) or that his skills have plateaued. The Big 10 (or the "B1G" if you will) was the best college basketball conference in 2012, no other answer will be accepted. Zeller, by virtue of playing in this conference, went up against the best players in the country on a nightly basis. Because he was Indiana's most visible player-if not best-he routinely received his opponent's best shot. The games were hard. He had to grind every game just to stay afloat.
The NBA is harder than the B1G I'm quite certain. He's going to need to improve if he wants to hang with the dogs that run for paychecks. He is athletic, there is no doubt about that, but athleticism goes only so far with 7-footers. He is the perfect body for the new NBA with its speed and its tempo, but questions about his transition to the NBA persist. He's frail, and I'm fairly confident that he gets taunted with chants of "do you even lift, bro?" every time he is spotted on Indiana's campus. Also, in a reverse Bilas, his wingspan is significantly shorter than his height (7ft compared with 6-8). That will likely affect his rebounding ability as every big man in the NBA has freakishly long arms. So that's a disadvantage.
He's a good fit to the Wizards system, able to run and dunk in transition. His offensive game needs significant work, but as a piece to the Wizards puzzle he is definitely an improvement over Jan Vesely.
And really isn't that the point?
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