Who Should the Washington Wizards Draft in 2013?

There is a light at the end of the tunnel for the Washington Wizards. It's either an escape from the tunnel of losing, or it's an oncoming freight train. The Wizards' draft pick this summer (June 27th) will go a long way to determining which one that ends up becoming.

As of this publication, the Wizards are 29-51 and playing poorly. Which is perfect if you are a Wizards fan and want to see them with a slightly better chance at potentially having a higher draft pick depending on whether or not ping pong balls are selected in the order in which they are anticipated. Or maybe David Stern will throw us a bone and let us pick in the Top-5. The Wizards have more losses than the Minnesota Timberwolves right now, but they both have 29 wins and are therefore in a battle for a chance at the 8th pick.

This is important because the players entering the NBA this season either are not that great, or will be projects and future D-League All Stars (I mean with all due respect. I wish I was a D-League All Star right now). The Wizards have some pieces in place for their future, and the right draft pick this summer would go a long way to the Wizards' chances at making the playoffs.

Plus the Wizards are in the Eastern Conference, where winning records for playoff teams are optional.

Is John Wall a Franchise Player?

Let me start by telling you something that you already know: losing sucks.

Ask any Bobcat fan (provided, of course, that you can find a Bobcat fan).

Losing, inevitably, breeds high draft picks. And those picks should, in theory, make teams better. For example the Wizards have selected with one of the Top 6 selections in each of the past three drafts. Odds--hell, even common sense--would suggest that they would hit on a franchise player in at least one of those drafts. The question is: have they? In those three drafts the Wizards have selected John Wall, Jan Vesely and Bradley Beal. In terms of threesomes they rank somewhere behind the new Star Wars trilogy, and slightly ahead of that Cuervo-fueled threesome you had Freshman year of college.

State of the Wizards

I can't remember the last time I wrote about the Washington Wizards. That fact is probably more of a reflection upon the success of the Redskins (and how much fun they were to talk about), rather than the  sad state of the basketball franchise in our nation's capital.

Things were "good" for a few moments in recent weeks. John Wall- our lord and savior- has returned from his mysterious knee injury. The Wizards won four of his first six games, until, in typical Wizards fashion, they failed to adapt to, you know, other teams adapting to them.

John Wall likes to push the tempo offensively. Player X grabs the defensive rebound, slings the ball to Wall who takes off like a rocket towards the opposing rim. Wall is one of the NBA's fastest players from one end of the court to the other, and when the opposing defense doesn't get back to slow Wall its a relatively easy two points for Washington.

Problem is that if you and I both can see this, NBA coaches can definitely see this. And that's essentially what happened in the Philadelphia game on January 30th. John pushed the ball like he does and, instead of weaving through players jogging back on defense, he was met with pressure. John Wall apparently doesn't deal well with pressure.

At Philadelphia he shot 3-12 for 9 points, chipping in 6 assists and 5 turnovers. Most of Wall's value lies with his explosiveness and ability to attack the rim and get high-percentage looks. Thus far in 2013, Wall shoots 63% at the rim and 31% from everywhere else- both on a career high pace.

The team only scored 84 points in the loss at Philly, their second lowest point total since John Wall's return. If defenses are going to adapt to Wall's transition inklings, the Wizards are going to need to adapt themselves. Eat or be eaten as it were.

Published in a January 31st Washington Post article, Martell Webster harps on the importance of adaptation. "That's the way this league is. It's all about adjustments...Teams are going to get a whiff of your game plan and they're going to try to do everything they can to deter you." Now that teams know that the Wizards like to run teams will game-plan to stop it. And while the Wizards by no means should give up this aggressive style of play (they're young in attacking positions), they do need to make a better effort in diversifying their scoring ability.

Even with the return of John Wall, the Wizards still offer opponents the worst offense in the NBA. They are dead last in points-per-game (91.3) and field goal percentage (42.2%), and are in the bottom 10 in 3pt%, free-throw%, and turnovers. Not generally considered the ingredients of winning basketball. Indiana's offense has been equally anemic but they give up the second fewest points.

If it can be said that they have one, the Wizards saving grace might just be their defense. They allow 96.1 points-per-game, tied for 8th best in the league. Amazingly, it seems, the Wizards are able to keep games close and give themselves the opportunity to win late. Trevor Ariza and Emeka Okafor lead the way on defense, limiting opposing wings and attackers. John Wall is a plus defender who is be and athletic enough to bully around point guards, while everyone else does nothing. Jan Vesely plays "Hack-a-Shaq" with his defensive match-ups, and Jordan Crawford looks like he is guarding Manti Te'o's girlfriend on most possessions (and by that I mean he guards nobody).

The Wizards are closer to mediocrity than people think. Since Wall's return the Wiz are 6-5. Are they going to make the playoffs? Not likely. But with all their pieces healthy it is not inconceivable that they post a winning- or close to it- record in the second half of the season. The issue, as always, has been the offense.

The Wizards half court offense is a disaster. They are like Lindsay Lohan Level when it comes to discipline. Jordan Crawford is a black hole (once you give him the ball you aren't seeing it again that possession) and their bigs, minus the seldom used Trevor Booker and Jan Vesely, are slow. Okafor, especially recently, has shown signs of competence, averaging 13.4 points and 14.6 rebounds in his last five games. But, as a whole, this unit does not offer much offense. (I'm big on Kevin Seraphin, but he is a defensive liability and therefore doesn't play the minutes his offense would justify).

Anyway, for the Wizards to remain competitive they must improve their half court sets. Transition offense is a key component for many contending teams (i.e. the Thunder), but a large percentage of a teams' offense comes from set plays. The Wizards have a capable creator in John Wall (how capable is a topic for another day) and shooters in Bradley Beal and Webster who can spread the floor. They may not have talent enough to score in the 90's consistently- SHABAZZ 2014- but if John Wall is they player many think he is half court sets wouldn't look this difficult. Part of this disconnect in the half court must be blamed on coach Randy Whittman, a career winner only 32% of the time, who struggles to coach basketball players. If the Wizards could just play more disciplined, and maybe find some more reliable scorers, this offense could improve.

Then again, is second-to-last really that much better than last?

For Your Consideration: Jan Vesely, Candidate for Bust

Jan Vesely is a professional basketball player for the Washington Wizards. That may be obvious, but I say that because there is a chance you haven't seen him play this year. In a season where the highs are few and far between and the lows are omnipresent- the latest being a 30 point loss at the hands of the Miami Heat- Jan Vesely represents everything that is wrong with the Wizards. From the management side to the basketball side, Jan Vesely is a walking embodiment of the Wizards futility.

After Vesely was drafted, ESPN's Fran Fraschilla described him in the following way: "He's a 6-11, energy guy...you don't have to run any plays for him. He is going to score in transition, he is going to score off of offensive rebounds and lobs. He is a freak athlete, and I do believe he is going to win a dunk contest." That's it. He didn't talk about his ability as a basketball player- though he did joke about his taste in women- or anything about his international career. He can dunk. Awesome. Is that why the Wizards drafted him? Because he can dunk?

Jan Vesely was born in Ostrava, Czech Republic, the third largest city in the country and a pretty intense sports town. He grew up with sports in his DNA: his father played professional basketball and his mother played professional volleyball. Little Jan, presumedly, was playing on his Fisher Price basketball hoop while other kids were collecting Beanie Babies. Ostrava is nicknamed the "steel heart of the republic," and, despite efforts to clean up its coal industry, it remains one of the most polluted cities in the European Union.

So far in the 2012 season Jan Vesely has committed more personal fouls than has points scored. He is athletic but, let's face it, he does more bad than good. He can't find playing time on the worst team in the NBA, and that doesn't say much about him as a player.

"Bust" is a complex word. I'm not really sure if anyone is qualified enough to precisely define exactly what makes a professional athlete a "bust," but that doesn't stop the multitudes from assigning this label to anyone who "underperforms." But what exactly is underperforming?  Sam Bowie was not a "bust," though compared to those selected after him in his draft class he was nowhere near as good. He wasn't as good as Michael Jordan, Charles Barkley, or John Stockton (all picked after him), but he contributed in the NBA. He averaged 10.9 points and 7.5 rebounds during his 10 year career, hardly "bust" numbers.

In order to categorize "busts," however, one must first define exactly what the word means. A "bust," to me, is someone who comes into the league with hype and is expected to contribute at, at least, a league average level. Does that mean it is any first-round pick? I don't think so. There are 60 players selected in any given Draft, and to say that 30 of those players should eventually become league average is foolish. Is Jimmy Butler going to become league average? Probably not. Then again, no one really expects him to. I think one must trim the number of players eligible for "bust" status. In fact, if one looks at the numbers, first-round picks have about the same odds of becoming league average independent of draft position.

Based on win shares, those selected with lottery picks from 2000-2009 (picks No. 1 through No. 13) became league average (sustaining a .10 win share rate per 48 minutes) players 24% of the time. Using the same metric, picks 14-30 have a league average win share rate 25% of the time. This means that the bottom half of first-round picks have become league average just as often as lottery picks.

Yes, there are players like LeBron James, John Wall, Kyrie Irving, and Anthony Davis, players who are (seemingly) obvious locks to contribute in the NBA. Those players, and other top five draft selections, have a high rate of success. Of the 50 players selected in the top five from 2000-2009 there have been only 5 bona fide busts: Marcus Fizer, Jay Williams, Nikoloz Tskitishvili, Adam Morrison, and Greg Oden (Hasheem Thabeet to me is on the fence). That is a 10% failure rate, or, more accurately, a 90% success rate in selecting players so early in the draft.

Then there is the argument to be made that International players make for poor draft selections. Players who come from other countries and leagues (so not including players like Tim Duncan, Hasheem Thabeet, Ronny Turiaf, Luol Deng or Samuel Dalembert, who all played college basketball in the United States) are harder for NBA scouts and executives to evaluate. Those leagues have talent that pales in comparison to that of the NBA, which forces scouts to grade these players against inferior competition. The speed of the international game is different too. The shot clock is longer, reducing scoring, and until recently the three point line was three feet shorter. The court is a different shape, especially with respect to the lane. See for yourself:

The trapezoidal construction of the lane in international play forces post players further away from the basket. Whereas NBA players who have "posted up" need only to rotate their feet to be in position for a layup, international players need to dribble and rely on short jumpers. It is clearly a different game, and it is more difficult to determine how skill sets will translate to the NBA.

Over the course of his young career, Jan Vesely averages 4.1 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 2.64 fouls per game. Because he is a role player, however, these numbers are somewhat expected. The problem is Jan Vesely should not be a role player. He was the No. 6 pick in the NBA Draft; common sense tells us that he should be productive. He hasn't. His career Player Efficiency Rating of 10.5 is significantly lower than the league average of 15, and his win shares per 48 minutes (where .10 is league average) scrapes the bottom of the barrel at .063.

He is limited offensively (this is his shooting chart for 2011-2012), and is not strong, physical, or aggressive enough to grab as many rebounds as his 6-11 frame suggests he should. From what Jan Vesely has shown fans, and the rest of the NBA, it is a wonder as to why the Wizards selected him with the 6th pick.

At the time, no one thought that the 2011 Draft was especially deep. Kyrie Irving and Derrick Williams were the only "sure things." Irving has been good, if not great, while Williams has remained hit or miss for the Minnesota Timberwolves. The rest of the top five went: Enes Kanter, Tristan Thompson, and Jonas Valanciunas. Not exactly a murderers row of prospects. The only thing that the Wizards really did not need coming into the Draft was a Point Guard, and therefore any selection netting the Wizards with some talent would have been welcome. Early speculations had the Wizards taking Kawhi Leonard; a high-motor player who would have done wonders to change the Confederacy of Dunces (Nick Young, JaVale McGee, Andray Blatche) the Wizards were running with.

We grabbed Jan Vesely. NBADraft.net, a website that offers scouting analysis and draft prediction, ranked Vesely the 6th best player in the 2011 class. Vesely, it says, is tall, athletic, a high energy guy, and can shoot threes. None of which are really helping him as a NBA player right now.

At 6-11, Jan Vesely is a tall Small Forward. It is also the position that scouts and fans assumed he would play in the NBA, but that has not been the case. The problem is that the Wizards have a glut of Small Forwards: Trevor Ariza, Martell Webster, Chris Singleton, Cartier Martin, and Jan Vesely all play the position. Because of his height, the only conceivable lineup where Vesely would play Small Forward is one with Emeka Okafor or Nenê, Kevin Seraphin, Vesely, and two guards. This lineup, however, has not so much logged a minute for the 2012-2013 Washington Wizards. The two lineups that Vesely has played most in, per Basketball Reference, are Ariza/Jordan Crawford/Okafor/A.J. Price, and Crawford/Janero Pargo/Seraphin/Webster. Neither allows him to utilize his height over smaller Small Forwards, instead he and his wiry frame are left to matchup with similarly sized or even larger Power Forwards.

As for his athleticism and energy, it's hard for those to make much of a difference when (A) he almost exclusively plays in the post area, and (B) the Wizards have only three wins. Vesely is a pick and roll Point Guard's dream, but the Wizards offense is hardly organized enough to use him in that capacity. As far as I can tell the Wizards run the same offense as guys who play pick-up games at Rucker Park. They run around, try to get open, and then shoot. Jordan Crawford just runs around and shoots, he doesn't care about being open. Instead of spreading out the floor with Vesely as an option on the wing, he is left motionless in the lane and required to create his own offense. Talk about setting yourself up to fail. As for his supposed high energy? The Wizards haven't seen a lot of it. I don't know...if I was getting garbage minutes in a 30 point blowout by the Miami Heat, I would have trouble diving for balls too.

The worst part about Vesely's game, however, and the one thing that needs to change is his shooting. NBADraft.net compares him to Mike Dunleavy Jr. and Andrei Kirilenko, both of whom are tall Small Forwards and shoot the three point shot well. These comparisons confuse me. Vesely has not shown himself to be a particularly adept shooter at any point in these past two seasons. Nor did he prove it in Europe. He shot 27% from three in three seasons worth of games in the EuroLeague, and 28% in four seasons in the Adriatic League. He is not a three point shooter, in fact, in his NBA career he has taken one three point shot. One. If he could shoot you would think he would do it, right? But his shooting issues go well beyond the three point line. He can't shoot from anywhere. In 2011-2012 he took 61 jump shots and made 6: a 10% shooting percentage. Of the 117 field goals he did make, 63 of them were dunks. Dunks are high percentage shots, undoubtably, but outside 3ft from the basket he shot only 15%- which is cause for concern. His offense is limited, and when one compares 2012 to 2011 Vesely does not appear to have taken any steps forward in terms of development.

The biggest issue with Jan Vesely is his speed. He is not fast or quick enough to play on the wing- which is why the Wizards have him in the post- and on defense this results in an inordinate number of personal fouls. As of December 16th he has 37 personal fouls and 31 points scored, a ratio, if it continues to hold for the rest of the season, would place him in miserable company. Because of his size, lack of speed or strength, he is a player without a position. He can jump and dunk the basketball at an elite level, but basketball is a game that requires significantly more skill than that to succeed. Until he develops a jump shot- any kind of shot really- or puts on enough muscle to bang in the post, he will never be a factor in the NBA.

Is Jan Vesely a "bust?" Not yet. It is too soon to pass that kind of judgement on a second year player who is adjusting to the NBA while also adjusting to American life. But if he remains "the-worst-player-on-the-worst-team" caliber, you have my permission to label him a "bust." It only seems fair.

A 4th Grader's Letter to Gary Bettman

I know that I haven't said a lot about hockey- mainly because there is no NHL this season, but also because only Playoff hockey is interesting anyway.

Imagine my surprise when my (totally real) little brother, a 4th Grader, wrote a letter to Gary Bettman for a class project. I thought it was thoughtful and pretty funny coming from him so I wanted to post it here as a monument to the worthlessness of the NHL, and why it is consistently the worst sports league in the United States (you're on notice MLS).

I took the liberty to spell all the words correctly, otherwise I have left as initially conceived. Here it is:

Dear Mr. Bettman,

My name is (Name Redacted) and I am a 4^th Grader at (Name Redacted), and I live in Washington D.C. My dad is a huge Washington Capitals fan. I am a huge Washington Capitals fan too.

I liked hockey for the first time two years ago when the Capitals went to the playoffs but then lost. I went to all of the games. I remember that everyone was really mad, but I didn’t know why. My dad said that the Capitals were supposed to win, but then didn’t. So everyone got really mad.

Then last year the Capitals were supposed to be good too. But then they lost in the playoffs again. My dad and the other people weren’t as mad. I was mad. I wanted them to win but they didn’t.

This year, Mr. Bettman, there is no hockey. My dad told me that you were the commissioner and that I should write a letter to you to tell you how much I think this stinks. I really like hockey and everyone else does too. I wish you would let them play this year.

My dad said there was something wrong with the collective bargaining agreement (horribly misspelled in the original), and that you didn’t want to pay the players money. Do you not have enough money already? Back when there was hockey me and my dad went to a lot of games and we bought hot dogs and soda at the games too. I think we gave you a lot of our money. I can tell my dad to pay you more if that will help? He buys a lot of things no one uses anyway.

My dad said the players and the owners of the teams have been arguing over money and neither wants the other to have any. Why don’t the owners and players just share the money? My mom gets mad at me when I don’t share my things with my little brother. It gets really annoying but I do it because I don’t like it when she gets mad. Do people get mad at you?

My dad said that hockey missed a season a couple of years ago and everyone was really mad. Aren’t you afraid that the players won’t want to play with you anymore? You aren’t going to let the players play another time. My dad thinks they are all going to play in Europe or Canada and the hockey league here is going to go away. He says that no one is going to want to play for you because you are unfair.

Since you are in charge of hockey don’t you like it? Don’t you want to see the players play it? I think this lockout is unfair. The players can’t play and the fans can’t watch. Hockey is my favorite sport and I am going to be very sad if there is no hockey this year. I hate watching basketball and the Wizards stink.

Sincerely,

(Name Redacted) 

Wizards Win!!

I don't have time for an actual post about this occasion, as I am currently writing a senior thesis on baseballs 2013 Hall of Fame class, so don't mistake the brevity for lack of excitement. It seemed like the first win was never going to happen, but then the Portland Trailblazers stepped into the Phone Booth (the Verizon Center…keep up) and were the only thing cooler than cool. And now the Wizards are 1-12(!!!!). 

Things can only go up from here if you are the Wizards, so let’s hope for a few more wins more frequently. If I have to wait 13 more games for the next Wizards victory…something about Wayne Brady doing something? I can’t remember.

I’ll leave you with a quote from the most powerful writer in Hollywood today: “There’s no [win] like the first. –Nicholas Sparks.

Nicholas Sparks is never wrong.

The 2012-2013 Washington Wizards > 2009-2010 New Jersey Nets?

Randy Wittman is sad

I watched the end of the Wizards play the Hawks last night. Whether or not we should have won this game isn’t debatable. We should have, but not because of a Martell Webster buzzer beater after time expired. We should have one that game because we played better than the Hawks for most of the night.

Nenê was back yesterday for the first time this season. It would have been easy to write the narrative where a crappy Wizards team starts to win after getting its, arguably, second best player back. And I'm sure that everyone from the Washington Post or Times was putting together a story just like that. But then Kyle Korver hit a three point shot from what memory tells me was half court (though it was probably 3ft behind the line) and put the Wizards to bed.

To say that Nenê’s foul on Devin Harris with 3.7 seconds left in the fourth was what caused the Wizards to lose this game is unfair. To completely ignore it, however, also cannot be done. The Wizards were in a position to win this game until they fouled the Hawks twice in the last five seconds of the game and essentially handed the Hawks a shot at overtime. It’s this undisciplined play that Wizards fans have become accustomed to seeing thus far in 2012, and what accounts for the Wizards league rankings of 22^nd in turnovers and 26^th in fouls per game (22.7).

To say that the Wizards are unbelievably difficult to watch and support on a nightly basis is an understatement. But that is the nature of fandom. You take the sweet with the bitter and the good with the bad. The 2012-2013 Wizards are bad. They are 0-10 right now, and have become just the 13^th team in NBA history to begin a season with 10 straight losses. The New Jersey Nets currently hold the record for the longest losing streak to begin a season with 18 straight, which begs the question for Wizards fans: Can we break this record? (Do we want this record?)

It is (probably) not a record that the Wizards want to be associated with. But then again, as I’ve said before, in the NBA you either compete or you tank. (#ShabazzSweepstakes) The Wizards are well on their way to tanking and, as a Wizards fan, it feels right. The Wizards have a few pieces, though they still need a few things, and the only way they are going to get them is through the draft. (Or Free Agency but who really wants to come play for the Wizards?)

But for now all we have to occupy ourselves with is the passionate pursuit of imperfection. Can the Wizards break the Nets streak of 18 games in a row? Let’s look:

11/24 vs Charlotte: Can we win this game? Absolutely. We lost to them earlier in the season and they have nearly matched their 2011-2012 win total, but their team is definitely not more skilled than the Wizards and this game will be relatively close. Do I think we should win this game? Yes. Will we? Ehh…probably not.

11/26 vs San Antonio: One of my friends likes to say that he is offended how much A.J. Price plays for an NBA team. I am not quite that offended, though if you think he can do anything against Tony Parker you are wrong. The Spurs have one of the best offenses in the league, the best coach in the league, and a scarily deep bench. The Wizards have none of these things. Blow-out-city.

11/28 vs Portland: They really aren’t that good. Last night they played all 13 guys who suited up, which tells me that Terry Stotts (the head coach) has no idea how to utilize his team. The Wizards have similar problems. Here is a Randy Wittman quote after the Wizards lost to the Pacers on 11/19: “I don’t know who to start, who to play, who not to play…” I may not be involved in professional basketball on a personal level but even I can tell you that those words don't sound good. (#ShabazzSweepstakes) The Blazers match-up really well against the Wizards, and though they may not have an identity yet, the Wizards aren't going to do much in Portland. Sorry.

11/30 at New York: The Knicks are actually good this season but they have one of the NBA’s shortest benches (Rasheed Wallace plays 15+ minutes a night!). The talent level  on these two teams are not as far apart as it may seem- forget about Carmelo- so I think that this game is likely to be more competitive than people think. If Carmelo plays an inefficient game (not likely) the Wizards can win, otherwise the Knicks just score too much for the Wizards basement dwelling offense to keep up.

12/4 vs Miami: Maybe if Lebron gets the flu. I hear it’s going around.

12/7 at Atlanta: We just lost a heartbreaker to these fools. If we don’t get our first win from Charlotte this is definitely going to be win numero uno. Or the Wizards could collapse down the stretch and lose again. Really the 2012-2013 Wizards are confusing. They are good for most of the game and fade down the stretch, or they start slow and work their way back only to blow it at the end. The 2012 Wizards are like Meek Mill’s newest CD. You go in thinking that it might be okay because you heard that song “Amen” and it was pretty good. But then you hear the rest of the album and decide you should have bought Kendrick Lamar’s CD instead. Stupid is as stupid does I guess.

12/8 vs Golden State: If Golden State was in the Eastern Conference they would be a Playoff team. They aren’t. What they are is young. They shoot threes; they grab some rebounds, and they have a pretty terrible defense. The Wizards defend the three point shot like able bodied NBA players should (top 5 in three point percentage against), which bodes well for their chances here. The Warriors also don’t have a dynamic Point Guard, something that gives the Wizards problems. If you don’t think that they are going to beat the Bobcats or the Hawks, this is going to be the Wizards first win. It’s too good of a match-up for the Wizards not to win this game. But I feel like I’ve said this before…

12/11 at New Orleans: The Hornets are pretty terrible. If Anthony Davis comes back from his ankle injury in time for this game then the Wizards chances of winning are diminished, but not significantly so. Subtracting Davis, the only Hornet who would start for another team is Ryan Anderson, and that team probably wouldn’t be very good. I think the Wizards win this game, but at some points I wonder if the Wizards are really bad enough to lose all of these games. Then I crack open the Sam Adams and I don't care as much. 

12/12 at Houston: The NBA’s 4^th leading scorer (for now), and 4^th leading rebounder receive paychecks from the Rockets and yet they are 5-7. This team is big; they can shoot threes, and are wildly inconsistent. The Wizards are going to lose this game because no one on the Wizards can stop James Harden, but by no means will they be overmatched.  

My prediction for this stretch is 3-6. We are not going to break that Nets record this year, no sir. I still think that we are headed for that No. 1 pick in June, which is good because my Shabazz Muhammad UCLA jersey is already in the mail.

2012 Wizards: A Running Diary

What's been up loyal readers (the 8 of you who seem interested in my poorly constructed sentences and limited vocabulary)? How have you been? How did that thing you had to do last time turn out? It went well/ poorly you say? Congratulations!/ You kinda deserved it... Seriously, welcome back. Please don't leave.

The Wizards lost to the Milwaukee Bucks and Indiana Pacers since we've talked last and are now 0-5 which, if not for the utterly indescribable terribleness that is the Detroit Pistons, would make the Wizards the front runners for worst team in the NBA

The Wizards began last season 0-8 before finally getting that first elusive victory. But this is very much not last years team- in ways I have discussed previously, and in ways that should be obvious to everyone with a set of eyes and a passing interest in basketball. This years team is hard to figure out. The sum of the parts (solid) is not equal to the output (zero wins), though there is reason to believe that the Wizards are close to getting that first win. First, I don't think it's possible for a team to go winless over the course of a season- even though the 2011-2012 Charlotte Bobcats certainly tempted fate. And second, the Wizards haven't actually been playing all that bad.

So what if we are winless. We have played four games against pretty legitimate playoff contenders (Boston, Indiana, Milwaukee) and one game against a much better than we though Cleveland team. We are never going to win the NBA Championship with this group of players, but it is not out of the realm of possibility that we finish 9th or 10th in the Eastern Conference. Top to bottom the Eastern Conference really isn't that good this season. The Heat are the definite favorites to win the title again this year, but if you put me in a dark alley with the Celtics or the Hawks? I just don't think that I am that afraid of them.

We don't match up well with teams that feature explosive combo guards (i.e. Cleveland, Milwaukee) because our starting Point Guard right now, A.J. Price, is small and a defensive black hole. Bradley Beal is more athletic than Price but his best defense is going to be his ability to score more points than his match-up on a consistent basis. John Wall is a good defender, and when he comes back our defense is likely to improve, but the status and nature of his injury is worrisome. Balky knees does not a good basketball player make.

The biggest problem for the Wizards thus far has been their offense. Per Hoopdata the Wizards have the least efficient offense (points scored per 100 possessions) in the NBA this season with 91.3. For reference, the Bobcats efficiency last season? 92.3. Their defense last season was historically bad, but you can't win games if you don't score points, right? With a healthy John Wall this number is likely to improve, and with our defense ranking better than league average there is reason to think our fortunes could change in the coming months.

Or they could change tonight. Tonight (11/13) the Wizards play the Charlotte Bobcats in a game for the ages. The stadium will NOT be filled to full capacity; the only electricity in the building will be coming from the generators housed somewhere underneath the stadium; Michael Jordan's body will be there but his mind will be anywhere else (hopefully he is plotting to destroy Space Jam 2). There might be one hundred people on the planet who watch this game to be entertained, the rest likely due to some work commitment.

The Wizards are going to win this game. They are better than the Bobcats. They play better defense, and while they might not score as well they sure as hell pass and take care of the ball better than the Bobcats. Plus, the Bobcats start Brendan Haywood who we dumped years ago. Advantage Wizards.

The Bobcats are a good match up, on paper, for the Wizards. Kemba Walker, their starting Point Guard is small, an inefficient shooter, and nowhere near explosive enough to cause concern. He scores points like Nick Young or Jordan Crawford score points- if he shoots the ball enough some of them are bound to go in. Jeffrey Taylor, a rookie Shooting Guard has not played enough to get an accurate reed of his abilities (Gerald Henderson is likely to miss some time with a foot injury) but his size at 6-7 could pose match up problems for the 6-3 Beal. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is the X-factor in this game. The Wizards have no one to guard him and if he continues his hot shooting (47% on the season) he will cause the Wizards a great amount of pain. The Wizards big men (Seraphin, Okafor, Booker) are better then Brendan Haywood (!), The Artist Formerly Known as B.J. Mullins (Byron Mullins now), Bismack Biyombo, and Tyrus Thomas. As a whole, the Bobcats aren't that athletic, and don't have the kind of perimeter shooting to cause the Wizards problems.

We are going to win because the Wizards have to be better than the Bobcats. Michael Jordan cannot construct good teams, he can only play for them. We need to beat the Bobcats otherwise my faith in this Wizards team will be severely tested- if not shot. I know that the Wizards are bad, I'm not irrational, but they can't be Bobcat bad, right?

Can we just fast-forward to the June draft?

Lessons Learned: WIzards/ Celtics 11/7

Grab your $3,500 dollar Nike's and lets go back in time.

7:22 3rd Quarter: Rajon Rondo makes a bad pass, Emeka Okafor snags it and whips it to Trevor Ariza. Fast Break.

7:20: Ariza has the ball and is rocketing towards the basket with Bradley Beal, with only Kevin Garnett standing in the way.

D'oh!

7:18: Beal receives the pass and goes up for a contested layup over Garnett who hockey-checks the airborne Beal. Beal with one hand, while floating through the air in slow motion it seems, throws the ball off glass and into the basket. The whistle blows.

AND 1 for Bradley Beal.

The Wizards lead by 4 points.

Plays like this happen more than once during a basketball game so, realistically, nothing should have been remarkable about this play other than the fact that, in KG's mind, this clearly should not have been called a foul (he likes to complain about all the calls made against him).

Except it was remarkable. Why? This free throw attempted by Beal was the first for the Wizards on the night, and it came with 7 minutes left in the 3rd Quarter.

Is that bad?

Well, like my dad always says, it aint good. And it kind of encapsulates what the Wizards are missing in a conveniently short block of text: they have no playmakers. Bradley Beal does not really penetrate as much as he takes jump shots. A.J. Price is a league average player, if that, and while he may be good for a made three pointer or two he also forces countless jumpers, many of which kill possessions before they get a chance to start. (I initially wrote a paragraph bashing A.J. Price but ultimately felt like it was too much... maybe in another post?). The Wizards have Jordan Crawford, but he is harder to figure out Florida's election results, which, you know, is pretty difficult.

A.J. Price? Not impressed

Both Price and Crawford think they are playmakers but statistics and common sense beg to differ. The Wizards are so devoid of a playmaker that Martell Webster decided to break down the Celtics defense himself last night with 40 seconds left in the game, ultimately turning the ball over. I actually like Webster's game, but things that don't involve shooting are not really a part of it. Trevor Ariza, from what he has shown at this point in the season- and really since he stopped playing with Kobe- is not a starting Small Forward. He really hasn't been relevant since he left the Lakers after the 2009 season, as evidenced by the fact that his Wikipedia picture is him with the Lakers, and needs to have his minutes reduced. He plays good defense, sometimes. He also can't play offense. Cent for cent he might be the most overrated player in the NBA, and yet he starts for the 2012-2013 Washington Wizards.

"But," you say, "Martell Webster and Chris Singleton aren't starting Small Forwards either!" loud and obnoxiously and probably during some point in the last paragraph. No, they're definitely not. But that is just the nature of the Wizards this season. None of them is a great option, but- if I can channel my inner Tim McCarver- it's about finding the one who is the least bad. That's Webster. Singleton remains a viable option off the bench for his energy and defensive play, but he is never going to be a guy who plays more than 25 minutes a night. He might have a night like this one against Boston where he scores in double figures with a high shooting percentage with some rebounds, assists, steals and a dunk that makes Kevin Garnett look like a little boy, but not often.

Other than realizing that Trevor Ariza, in two words, isn't good, last night we saw that emergence of Kevin Seraphin. Last night marked the 18th straight game Seraphin scored in double figures, while also pulling down 9 boards. This was soured somewhat by his 6 turnovers and 5 personal fouls, which led to his Arizian plus/minus of -7. He is not a guy who is going to set the world on fire with his defense, but from him the Wizards are mostly looking for offense. He is on the court to score, and he can put it in the basket in a variety of ways. Obviously I am jumping the gun here, but he has the potential to be a more powerful Chris Bosh. He can post you up and score with either hand; he can make the midrange jumper; he can beat you with his quickness; and he can even piss you off until you just want to hit him- à la Kevin Garnett's Technical Foul last night. He doesn't need to light to world on fire on both ends of the floor, he just needs to continue to produce as he has and he becomes one of the five quality Wizards starters with John Wall (out indefinitely), Nenê (out indefinitely), Okafor (not so far), and Bradley Beal (maybe hopefully).

Speaking of Beal, his last matchup against this Celtics team (November 3rd) was a tough one. It was the kind of performance expected from a rookie against a veteran, physical, defensive minded team. Courtney Lee may never come close to the 55 points I scored with him in NCAA 2k7 versus Syracuse, but he plays the caliber defense that made the Celtics want to bring him in to guard Dwyane Wade. Last night Beal played well, part of which is no doubt due to Jason Terry guarding him all night (and actually having to play defense), but most of can be traced back to Beal himself. He was more confident last night than he has been with the Wizards, taking 15 shots, second to Seraphin with 19. He shot a rather pedestrian 40% overall but the fact that he is taking shots and acting like he is one of the Wizards best options, which he became the second he was drafted, is a good sign. He is going to have some hard times this season, probably until John Wall comes back and alleviates the production load for everyone, but the Wizards are going to keep him down in the deep end of the pool until he can learn how to swim.

The Wizards played well enough to win last night for about 3 1/2 Quarters. Then the Celtics turned up the defense pressure, and we came to realize just how much we miss John Wall- as if we didn't know already. The Wizards turned the ball over, they committed some bad fouls, and the Celtics escaped in Overtime. The Wizards played the Eastern Conference's likely No. 2 seed hard twice, coming close to winning both games, which is definitely a positive. But we saw just how flawed our guys are on both ends of the court, and how far away they are from relevancy.

This is the NBA: if you can't compete you might as well tank. And after this 0-3 start we clearly are not contenders. Assuming we stay at the same level, or even improve slightly, we are well on our way to a lottery pick. If we get the right piece we become a playoff team, if we get the wrong piece we fall into a circle of fan hell inhabited only by the Bobcats- where lottery picks go to die. So for now while we wait for our team to improve we can take solace in that we are not, in fact, the Bobcats.