2012 Wizards: A Running Diary

What's been up loyal readers (the 8 of you who seem interested in my poorly constructed sentences and limited vocabulary)? How have you been? How did that thing you had to do last time turn out? It went well/ poorly you say? Congratulations!/ You kinda deserved it... Seriously, welcome back. Please don't leave.

The Wizards lost to the Milwaukee Bucks and Indiana Pacers since we've talked last and are now 0-5 which, if not for the utterly indescribable terribleness that is the Detroit Pistons, would make the Wizards the front runners for worst team in the NBA

The Wizards began last season 0-8 before finally getting that first elusive victory. But this is very much not last years team- in ways I have discussed previously, and in ways that should be obvious to everyone with a set of eyes and a passing interest in basketball. This years team is hard to figure out. The sum of the parts (solid) is not equal to the output (zero wins), though there is reason to believe that the Wizards are close to getting that first win. First, I don't think it's possible for a team to go winless over the course of a season- even though the 2011-2012 Charlotte Bobcats certainly tempted fate. And second, the Wizards haven't actually been playing all that bad.

So what if we are winless. We have played four games against pretty legitimate playoff contenders (Boston, Indiana, Milwaukee) and one game against a much better than we though Cleveland team. We are never going to win the NBA Championship with this group of players, but it is not out of the realm of possibility that we finish 9th or 10th in the Eastern Conference. Top to bottom the Eastern Conference really isn't that good this season. The Heat are the definite favorites to win the title again this year, but if you put me in a dark alley with the Celtics or the Hawks? I just don't think that I am that afraid of them.

We don't match up well with teams that feature explosive combo guards (i.e. Cleveland, Milwaukee) because our starting Point Guard right now, A.J. Price, is small and a defensive black hole. Bradley Beal is more athletic than Price but his best defense is going to be his ability to score more points than his match-up on a consistent basis. John Wall is a good defender, and when he comes back our defense is likely to improve, but the status and nature of his injury is worrisome. Balky knees does not a good basketball player make.

The biggest problem for the Wizards thus far has been their offense. Per Hoopdata the Wizards have the least efficient offense (points scored per 100 possessions) in the NBA this season with 91.3. For reference, the Bobcats efficiency last season? 92.3. Their defense last season was historically bad, but you can't win games if you don't score points, right? With a healthy John Wall this number is likely to improve, and with our defense ranking better than league average there is reason to think our fortunes could change in the coming months.

Or they could change tonight. Tonight (11/13) the Wizards play the Charlotte Bobcats in a game for the ages. The stadium will NOT be filled to full capacity; the only electricity in the building will be coming from the generators housed somewhere underneath the stadium; Michael Jordan's body will be there but his mind will be anywhere else (hopefully he is plotting to destroy Space Jam 2). There might be one hundred people on the planet who watch this game to be entertained, the rest likely due to some work commitment.

The Wizards are going to win this game. They are better than the Bobcats. They play better defense, and while they might not score as well they sure as hell pass and take care of the ball better than the Bobcats. Plus, the Bobcats start Brendan Haywood who we dumped years ago. Advantage Wizards.

The Bobcats are a good match up, on paper, for the Wizards. Kemba Walker, their starting Point Guard is small, an inefficient shooter, and nowhere near explosive enough to cause concern. He scores points like Nick Young or Jordan Crawford score points- if he shoots the ball enough some of them are bound to go in. Jeffrey Taylor, a rookie Shooting Guard has not played enough to get an accurate reed of his abilities (Gerald Henderson is likely to miss some time with a foot injury) but his size at 6-7 could pose match up problems for the 6-3 Beal. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is the X-factor in this game. The Wizards have no one to guard him and if he continues his hot shooting (47% on the season) he will cause the Wizards a great amount of pain. The Wizards big men (Seraphin, Okafor, Booker) are better then Brendan Haywood (!), The Artist Formerly Known as B.J. Mullins (Byron Mullins now), Bismack Biyombo, and Tyrus Thomas. As a whole, the Bobcats aren't that athletic, and don't have the kind of perimeter shooting to cause the Wizards problems.

We are going to win because the Wizards have to be better than the Bobcats. Michael Jordan cannot construct good teams, he can only play for them. We need to beat the Bobcats otherwise my faith in this Wizards team will be severely tested- if not shot. I know that the Wizards are bad, I'm not irrational, but they can't be Bobcat bad, right?

Can we just fast-forward to the June draft?

Bryce Harper: Rookie of the Year

They grow up so fast...

Congratulations to Bryce Harper for winning the 2012 Rookie of the Year Award.

He is the first player in Washington's professional baseball history to win the award (third if you count the Montreal days, which maybe you should?) since the its inception in 1947 (Jackie Robinson).

So, in celebration, enjoy Bryce Harper's 22 career home runs:

See. You. Later.

Hopefully we'll pop some more bubby for Davey Johnson's Manager of the Year Award tomorrow. If not, it's probably totally rational for Nats fans to sign a petition to secede from the MLB. Probably.

Gio Gonzalez, Cy Young?

Every Friday and Saturday morning I wake up too early, fire up the Xbox, and play NCAA Football until my eyes can’t take it anymore. This morning? To be honest, I’m a little hungover. I need to chill out and digest those three slices of pizza I ate last night so I search my Spotify playlist for something. 50 Cent’s Get Rich or Die Trying CD? Yep. It takes me about an hour to work through the CD to get to the song that I actually want to hear: “Wanksta.”

This is my favorite song, so I blast it (more like listen at an appropriate level because my head still hurts) while reading my round of online articles. Then 50 (can I call him that?) raps:

“Damn homie, in high school you was the man, homie /

What the f*&# happened to you?”

I consider the depth of these words while reading that, for the first time, the writers who determine these things posted the finalists for every relevant post-season award. I see that every writer on this particular site picked R.A. Dickey to win the National League Cy Young Award and my thoughts go back to 50 (I’m just going to call him that). Remember when R.A. Dickey was the man in June and essentially right up until the Mets fell apart? Then Sportscenter relegated all R.A. Dickey news to the end of the show, in the 15 seconds usually reserved to Canadian Football League results? Is he going to win the Cy Young? Can he win the Cy Young? Should he win the Cy Young? What about Gio Gonzalez?

 

Let’s play a little game:

Player A: 19-9, 2.78 ERA, 217 Innings, 170 SO, WAR 5.8

Player B: 14-9, 2.53 ERA, 227.2 Innings, 229 SO, WAR 6.3

Player C: 20-6, 2.73 ERA, 233.2 Innings, 230 SO, WAR 5.4

Player D: 21-8, 2.89 ERA, 199.1 Innings, 207 SO, WAR 4.5

Who wins the eye test? Player B right? He was tied for 4th in the league with 6 "tough losses" (a real statistic that I actually did not just make up) which, had his defense/ bullpen not been terrible, shows that he could have had a few more wins. Your taking him. I decided. Congrats, we picked Clayton Kershaw who, according to people who know things, has little to no shot at winning this thing. It is essentially a two dog race between Player C (Dickey) and Player D (Gonzalez).

Looking at these numbers you would probably pick Dickey right? But let us consider the importance of pitching for a winning team. The Mets finished 74- 88, good for 4^th place in the National League East. The Nats finished 98-64, the best record in baseball. Over the course of the season the Nationals pitching staff allowed 594 runs, good for the third fewest in baseball. On September 7^th the Nationals shut down Stephen Strasburg- an event that should of killed the Nationals down the stretch, but didn’t.

On September 7^th the Nationals were 6.5 games ahead of the Braves in the race for the division. No one in D.C. was exactly buying playoff tickets at this point though. At this same point the A’s trailed the Rangers by 4.5 games and in 2011 the Red Sox and Braves each led their Wild Card races by 7 and 6.5 games respectively. What I’m saying is that there was still a lot of baseball left to be played. The Nationals had not locked up the East- not by a long shot.

They booted Strasburg from the rotation. Edwin Jackson started to pitch like Edwin Jackson, posting a 7.92 ERA in September while allowing hitters to hit .317 against him. Jordan Zimmermann, the teams’ most consistent pitcher for much of the season, lost it. In 34.2 September innings his ERA was 4.41. The Nationals pitching staff was falling apart: we were forced into throwing Chien Ming Wang (The Human Batting Practice), and John Lannan just to get through the week. But just when things were looking all kinds of bad Gio Gonzalez stepped in and put the team on his back. Greg Jennings style.

He was 4-1 in September, with a 1.74 ERA, a .171 batting average against and gave up only 6 earned runs. Without him- and the offense actually scoring runs- the Nationals limp into the playoffs, possibly as a Wild Card team.

The Nationals were not a Wild Card team, they were the No. 1 seed in the National League. Résumés for Cy Young's and MVP’s will always be bolstered by playing on a winning team, and rightly so. With notable exceptions (Zach Greinke in 2009, Felix Hernandez in 2010) these major postseason awards are handed out to players who make the playoffs. It’s the biggest knock against Mike Trout’s MVP candidacy this year, and one of the larger factors that will keep him from winning it. Miguel Cabrera also won the Triple Crown… so that probably doesn't help Trout. Gio was very much the ace of the Nationals staff, pitched out of his mind when his team actually needed him to produce and led them to the playoffs. I certainly don’t think that candidates for the Cy Young and MVP should lose votes because they don’t make the playoffs, but those who do lead their teams to the postseason deserve a little more credit.

There are cases when one candidate puts up numbers that are so far superior to others that it would be a travesty if they didn’t win- again those Greinke and Hernandez seasons are the best examples of this- but this is not one of those years. R.A. Dickey had a great statistical season, but not anything that separates him from Gio Gonzalez by any statistical measure. Dickey had more strikeouts, and had a lower ERA, sure; Gio had more wins and opponents hit .20 points worse against him. There's a point to every counter point. The only thing that separates them is that Gio was the ace of the best team in baseball and made the playoffs and, if you want to go there, R.A. Dickey was a better story. (And a fantastic read).

While it is not totally Dickey’s fault that his team made the playoffs, it is Gio’s fault that the Nationals did though. Give the man some props- or a Cy Young?

"Wanksta" faded out to the grittier "Many Men." And I bumped it. Obviously. It's my favorite song.