The 2012-2013 Washington Wizards > 2009-2010 New Jersey Nets?

Randy Wittman is sad

I watched the end of the Wizards play the Hawks last night. Whether or not we should have won this game isn’t debatable. We should have, but not because of a Martell Webster buzzer beater after time expired. We should have one that game because we played better than the Hawks for most of the night.

Nenê was back yesterday for the first time this season. It would have been easy to write the narrative where a crappy Wizards team starts to win after getting its, arguably, second best player back. And I'm sure that everyone from the Washington Post or Times was putting together a story just like that. But then Kyle Korver hit a three point shot from what memory tells me was half court (though it was probably 3ft behind the line) and put the Wizards to bed.

To say that Nenê’s foul on Devin Harris with 3.7 seconds left in the fourth was what caused the Wizards to lose this game is unfair. To completely ignore it, however, also cannot be done. The Wizards were in a position to win this game until they fouled the Hawks twice in the last five seconds of the game and essentially handed the Hawks a shot at overtime. It’s this undisciplined play that Wizards fans have become accustomed to seeing thus far in 2012, and what accounts for the Wizards league rankings of 22^nd in turnovers and 26^th in fouls per game (22.7).

To say that the Wizards are unbelievably difficult to watch and support on a nightly basis is an understatement. But that is the nature of fandom. You take the sweet with the bitter and the good with the bad. The 2012-2013 Wizards are bad. They are 0-10 right now, and have become just the 13^th team in NBA history to begin a season with 10 straight losses. The New Jersey Nets currently hold the record for the longest losing streak to begin a season with 18 straight, which begs the question for Wizards fans: Can we break this record? (Do we want this record?)

It is (probably) not a record that the Wizards want to be associated with. But then again, as I’ve said before, in the NBA you either compete or you tank. (#ShabazzSweepstakes) The Wizards are well on their way to tanking and, as a Wizards fan, it feels right. The Wizards have a few pieces, though they still need a few things, and the only way they are going to get them is through the draft. (Or Free Agency but who really wants to come play for the Wizards?)

But for now all we have to occupy ourselves with is the passionate pursuit of imperfection. Can the Wizards break the Nets streak of 18 games in a row? Let’s look:

11/24 vs Charlotte: Can we win this game? Absolutely. We lost to them earlier in the season and they have nearly matched their 2011-2012 win total, but their team is definitely not more skilled than the Wizards and this game will be relatively close. Do I think we should win this game? Yes. Will we? Ehh…probably not.

11/26 vs San Antonio: One of my friends likes to say that he is offended how much A.J. Price plays for an NBA team. I am not quite that offended, though if you think he can do anything against Tony Parker you are wrong. The Spurs have one of the best offenses in the league, the best coach in the league, and a scarily deep bench. The Wizards have none of these things. Blow-out-city.

11/28 vs Portland: They really aren’t that good. Last night they played all 13 guys who suited up, which tells me that Terry Stotts (the head coach) has no idea how to utilize his team. The Wizards have similar problems. Here is a Randy Wittman quote after the Wizards lost to the Pacers on 11/19: “I don’t know who to start, who to play, who not to play…” I may not be involved in professional basketball on a personal level but even I can tell you that those words don't sound good. (#ShabazzSweepstakes) The Blazers match-up really well against the Wizards, and though they may not have an identity yet, the Wizards aren't going to do much in Portland. Sorry.

11/30 at New York: The Knicks are actually good this season but they have one of the NBA’s shortest benches (Rasheed Wallace plays 15+ minutes a night!). The talent level  on these two teams are not as far apart as it may seem- forget about Carmelo- so I think that this game is likely to be more competitive than people think. If Carmelo plays an inefficient game (not likely) the Wizards can win, otherwise the Knicks just score too much for the Wizards basement dwelling offense to keep up.

12/4 vs Miami: Maybe if Lebron gets the flu. I hear it’s going around.

12/7 at Atlanta: We just lost a heartbreaker to these fools. If we don’t get our first win from Charlotte this is definitely going to be win numero uno. Or the Wizards could collapse down the stretch and lose again. Really the 2012-2013 Wizards are confusing. They are good for most of the game and fade down the stretch, or they start slow and work their way back only to blow it at the end. The 2012 Wizards are like Meek Mill’s newest CD. You go in thinking that it might be okay because you heard that song “Amen” and it was pretty good. But then you hear the rest of the album and decide you should have bought Kendrick Lamar’s CD instead. Stupid is as stupid does I guess.

12/8 vs Golden State: If Golden State was in the Eastern Conference they would be a Playoff team. They aren’t. What they are is young. They shoot threes; they grab some rebounds, and they have a pretty terrible defense. The Wizards defend the three point shot like able bodied NBA players should (top 5 in three point percentage against), which bodes well for their chances here. The Warriors also don’t have a dynamic Point Guard, something that gives the Wizards problems. If you don’t think that they are going to beat the Bobcats or the Hawks, this is going to be the Wizards first win. It’s too good of a match-up for the Wizards not to win this game. But I feel like I’ve said this before…

12/11 at New Orleans: The Hornets are pretty terrible. If Anthony Davis comes back from his ankle injury in time for this game then the Wizards chances of winning are diminished, but not significantly so. Subtracting Davis, the only Hornet who would start for another team is Ryan Anderson, and that team probably wouldn’t be very good. I think the Wizards win this game, but at some points I wonder if the Wizards are really bad enough to lose all of these games. Then I crack open the Sam Adams and I don't care as much. 

12/12 at Houston: The NBA’s 4^th leading scorer (for now), and 4^th leading rebounder receive paychecks from the Rockets and yet they are 5-7. This team is big; they can shoot threes, and are wildly inconsistent. The Wizards are going to lose this game because no one on the Wizards can stop James Harden, but by no means will they be overmatched.  

My prediction for this stretch is 3-6. We are not going to break that Nets record this year, no sir. I still think that we are headed for that No. 1 pick in June, which is good because my Shabazz Muhammad UCLA jersey is already in the mail.

2012 Wizards: A Running Diary

What's been up loyal readers (the 8 of you who seem interested in my poorly constructed sentences and limited vocabulary)? How have you been? How did that thing you had to do last time turn out? It went well/ poorly you say? Congratulations!/ You kinda deserved it... Seriously, welcome back. Please don't leave.

The Wizards lost to the Milwaukee Bucks and Indiana Pacers since we've talked last and are now 0-5 which, if not for the utterly indescribable terribleness that is the Detroit Pistons, would make the Wizards the front runners for worst team in the NBA

The Wizards began last season 0-8 before finally getting that first elusive victory. But this is very much not last years team- in ways I have discussed previously, and in ways that should be obvious to everyone with a set of eyes and a passing interest in basketball. This years team is hard to figure out. The sum of the parts (solid) is not equal to the output (zero wins), though there is reason to believe that the Wizards are close to getting that first win. First, I don't think it's possible for a team to go winless over the course of a season- even though the 2011-2012 Charlotte Bobcats certainly tempted fate. And second, the Wizards haven't actually been playing all that bad.

So what if we are winless. We have played four games against pretty legitimate playoff contenders (Boston, Indiana, Milwaukee) and one game against a much better than we though Cleveland team. We are never going to win the NBA Championship with this group of players, but it is not out of the realm of possibility that we finish 9th or 10th in the Eastern Conference. Top to bottom the Eastern Conference really isn't that good this season. The Heat are the definite favorites to win the title again this year, but if you put me in a dark alley with the Celtics or the Hawks? I just don't think that I am that afraid of them.

We don't match up well with teams that feature explosive combo guards (i.e. Cleveland, Milwaukee) because our starting Point Guard right now, A.J. Price, is small and a defensive black hole. Bradley Beal is more athletic than Price but his best defense is going to be his ability to score more points than his match-up on a consistent basis. John Wall is a good defender, and when he comes back our defense is likely to improve, but the status and nature of his injury is worrisome. Balky knees does not a good basketball player make.

The biggest problem for the Wizards thus far has been their offense. Per Hoopdata the Wizards have the least efficient offense (points scored per 100 possessions) in the NBA this season with 91.3. For reference, the Bobcats efficiency last season? 92.3. Their defense last season was historically bad, but you can't win games if you don't score points, right? With a healthy John Wall this number is likely to improve, and with our defense ranking better than league average there is reason to think our fortunes could change in the coming months.

Or they could change tonight. Tonight (11/13) the Wizards play the Charlotte Bobcats in a game for the ages. The stadium will NOT be filled to full capacity; the only electricity in the building will be coming from the generators housed somewhere underneath the stadium; Michael Jordan's body will be there but his mind will be anywhere else (hopefully he is plotting to destroy Space Jam 2). There might be one hundred people on the planet who watch this game to be entertained, the rest likely due to some work commitment.

The Wizards are going to win this game. They are better than the Bobcats. They play better defense, and while they might not score as well they sure as hell pass and take care of the ball better than the Bobcats. Plus, the Bobcats start Brendan Haywood who we dumped years ago. Advantage Wizards.

The Bobcats are a good match up, on paper, for the Wizards. Kemba Walker, their starting Point Guard is small, an inefficient shooter, and nowhere near explosive enough to cause concern. He scores points like Nick Young or Jordan Crawford score points- if he shoots the ball enough some of them are bound to go in. Jeffrey Taylor, a rookie Shooting Guard has not played enough to get an accurate reed of his abilities (Gerald Henderson is likely to miss some time with a foot injury) but his size at 6-7 could pose match up problems for the 6-3 Beal. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is the X-factor in this game. The Wizards have no one to guard him and if he continues his hot shooting (47% on the season) he will cause the Wizards a great amount of pain. The Wizards big men (Seraphin, Okafor, Booker) are better then Brendan Haywood (!), The Artist Formerly Known as B.J. Mullins (Byron Mullins now), Bismack Biyombo, and Tyrus Thomas. As a whole, the Bobcats aren't that athletic, and don't have the kind of perimeter shooting to cause the Wizards problems.

We are going to win because the Wizards have to be better than the Bobcats. Michael Jordan cannot construct good teams, he can only play for them. We need to beat the Bobcats otherwise my faith in this Wizards team will be severely tested- if not shot. I know that the Wizards are bad, I'm not irrational, but they can't be Bobcat bad, right?

Can we just fast-forward to the June draft?

Lessons Learned: WIzards/ Celtics 11/7

Grab your $3,500 dollar Nike's and lets go back in time.

7:22 3rd Quarter: Rajon Rondo makes a bad pass, Emeka Okafor snags it and whips it to Trevor Ariza. Fast Break.

7:20: Ariza has the ball and is rocketing towards the basket with Bradley Beal, with only Kevin Garnett standing in the way.

D'oh!

7:18: Beal receives the pass and goes up for a contested layup over Garnett who hockey-checks the airborne Beal. Beal with one hand, while floating through the air in slow motion it seems, throws the ball off glass and into the basket. The whistle blows.

AND 1 for Bradley Beal.

The Wizards lead by 4 points.

Plays like this happen more than once during a basketball game so, realistically, nothing should have been remarkable about this play other than the fact that, in KG's mind, this clearly should not have been called a foul (he likes to complain about all the calls made against him).

Except it was remarkable. Why? This free throw attempted by Beal was the first for the Wizards on the night, and it came with 7 minutes left in the 3rd Quarter.

Is that bad?

Well, like my dad always says, it aint good. And it kind of encapsulates what the Wizards are missing in a conveniently short block of text: they have no playmakers. Bradley Beal does not really penetrate as much as he takes jump shots. A.J. Price is a league average player, if that, and while he may be good for a made three pointer or two he also forces countless jumpers, many of which kill possessions before they get a chance to start. (I initially wrote a paragraph bashing A.J. Price but ultimately felt like it was too much... maybe in another post?). The Wizards have Jordan Crawford, but he is harder to figure out Florida's election results, which, you know, is pretty difficult.

A.J. Price? Not impressed

Both Price and Crawford think they are playmakers but statistics and common sense beg to differ. The Wizards are so devoid of a playmaker that Martell Webster decided to break down the Celtics defense himself last night with 40 seconds left in the game, ultimately turning the ball over. I actually like Webster's game, but things that don't involve shooting are not really a part of it. Trevor Ariza, from what he has shown at this point in the season- and really since he stopped playing with Kobe- is not a starting Small Forward. He really hasn't been relevant since he left the Lakers after the 2009 season, as evidenced by the fact that his Wikipedia picture is him with the Lakers, and needs to have his minutes reduced. He plays good defense, sometimes. He also can't play offense. Cent for cent he might be the most overrated player in the NBA, and yet he starts for the 2012-2013 Washington Wizards.

"But," you say, "Martell Webster and Chris Singleton aren't starting Small Forwards either!" loud and obnoxiously and probably during some point in the last paragraph. No, they're definitely not. But that is just the nature of the Wizards this season. None of them is a great option, but- if I can channel my inner Tim McCarver- it's about finding the one who is the least bad. That's Webster. Singleton remains a viable option off the bench for his energy and defensive play, but he is never going to be a guy who plays more than 25 minutes a night. He might have a night like this one against Boston where he scores in double figures with a high shooting percentage with some rebounds, assists, steals and a dunk that makes Kevin Garnett look like a little boy, but not often.

Other than realizing that Trevor Ariza, in two words, isn't good, last night we saw that emergence of Kevin Seraphin. Last night marked the 18th straight game Seraphin scored in double figures, while also pulling down 9 boards. This was soured somewhat by his 6 turnovers and 5 personal fouls, which led to his Arizian plus/minus of -7. He is not a guy who is going to set the world on fire with his defense, but from him the Wizards are mostly looking for offense. He is on the court to score, and he can put it in the basket in a variety of ways. Obviously I am jumping the gun here, but he has the potential to be a more powerful Chris Bosh. He can post you up and score with either hand; he can make the midrange jumper; he can beat you with his quickness; and he can even piss you off until you just want to hit him- à la Kevin Garnett's Technical Foul last night. He doesn't need to light to world on fire on both ends of the floor, he just needs to continue to produce as he has and he becomes one of the five quality Wizards starters with John Wall (out indefinitely), Nenê (out indefinitely), Okafor (not so far), and Bradley Beal (maybe hopefully).

Speaking of Beal, his last matchup against this Celtics team (November 3rd) was a tough one. It was the kind of performance expected from a rookie against a veteran, physical, defensive minded team. Courtney Lee may never come close to the 55 points I scored with him in NCAA 2k7 versus Syracuse, but he plays the caliber defense that made the Celtics want to bring him in to guard Dwyane Wade. Last night Beal played well, part of which is no doubt due to Jason Terry guarding him all night (and actually having to play defense), but most of can be traced back to Beal himself. He was more confident last night than he has been with the Wizards, taking 15 shots, second to Seraphin with 19. He shot a rather pedestrian 40% overall but the fact that he is taking shots and acting like he is one of the Wizards best options, which he became the second he was drafted, is a good sign. He is going to have some hard times this season, probably until John Wall comes back and alleviates the production load for everyone, but the Wizards are going to keep him down in the deep end of the pool until he can learn how to swim.

The Wizards played well enough to win last night for about 3 1/2 Quarters. Then the Celtics turned up the defense pressure, and we came to realize just how much we miss John Wall- as if we didn't know already. The Wizards turned the ball over, they committed some bad fouls, and the Celtics escaped in Overtime. The Wizards played the Eastern Conference's likely No. 2 seed hard twice, coming close to winning both games, which is definitely a positive. But we saw just how flawed our guys are on both ends of the court, and how far away they are from relevancy.

This is the NBA: if you can't compete you might as well tank. And after this 0-3 start we clearly are not contenders. Assuming we stay at the same level, or even improve slightly, we are well on our way to a lottery pick. If we get the right piece we become a playoff team, if we get the wrong piece we fall into a circle of fan hell inhabited only by the Bobcats- where lottery picks go to die. So for now while we wait for our team to improve we can take solace in that we are not, in fact, the Bobcats.