Thursday, November 8, 2012

Lessons Learned: WIzards/ Celtics 11/7

Grab your $3,500 dollar Nike's and lets go back in time.

7:22 3rd Quarter: Rajon Rondo makes a bad pass, Emeka Okafor snags it and whips it to Trevor Ariza. Fast Break.

7:20: Ariza has the ball and is rocketing towards the basket with Bradley Beal, with only Kevin Garnett standing in the way.

D'oh!
7:18: Beal receives the pass and goes up for a contested layup over Garnett who hockey-checks the airborne Beal. Beal with one hand, while floating through the air in slow motion it seems, throws the ball off glass and into the basket. The whistle blows.

AND 1 for Bradley Beal.

The Wizards lead by 4 points.

Plays like this happen more than once during a basketball game so, realistically, nothing should have been remarkable about this play other than the fact that, in KG's mind, this clearly should not have been called a foul (he likes to complain about all the calls made against him).

Except it was remarkable. Why? This free throw attempted by Beal was the first for the Wizards on the night, and it came with 7 minutes left in the 3rd Quarter.

Is that bad?

Well, like my dad always says, it aint good. And it kind of encapsulates what the Wizards are missing in a conveniently short block of text: they have no playmakers. Bradley Beal does not really penetrate as much as he takes jump shots. A.J. Price is a league average player, if that, and while he may be good for a made three pointer or two he also forces countless jumpers, many of which kill possessions before they get a chance to start. (I initially wrote a paragraph bashing A.J. Price but ultimately felt like it was too much... maybe in another post?). The Wizards have Jordan Crawford, but he is harder to figure out Florida's election results, which, you know, is pretty difficult.

A.J. Price? Not impressed
Both Price and Crawford think they are playmakers but statistics and common sense beg to differ. The Wizards are so devoid of a playmaker that Martell Webster decided to break down the Celtics defense himself last night with 40 seconds left in the game, ultimately turning the ball over. I actually like Webster's game, but things that don't involve shooting are not really a part of it. Trevor Ariza, from what he has shown at this point in the season- and really since he stopped playing with Kobe- is not a starting Small Forward. He really hasn't been relevant since he left the Lakers after the 2009 season, as evidenced by the fact that his Wikipedia picture is him with the Lakers, and needs to have his minutes reduced. He plays good defense, sometimes. He also can't play offense. Cent for cent he might be the most overrated player in the NBA, and yet he starts for the 2012-2013 Washington Wizards.

"But," you say, "Martell Webster and Chris Singleton aren't starting Small Forwards either!" loud and obnoxiously and probably during some point in the last paragraph. No, they're definitely not. But that is just the nature of the Wizards this season. None of them is a great option, but- if I can channel my inner Tim McCarver- it's about finding the one who is the least bad. That's Webster. Singleton remains a viable option off the bench for his energy and defensive play, but he is never going to be a guy who plays more than 25 minutes a night. He might have a night like this one against Boston where he scores in double figures with a high shooting percentage with some rebounds, assists, steals and a dunk that makes Kevin Garnett look like a little boy, but not often.

Other than realizing that Trevor Ariza, in two words, isn't good, last night we saw that emergence of Kevin Seraphin. Last night marked the 18th straight game Seraphin scored in double figures, while also pulling down 9 boards. This was soured somewhat by his 6 turnovers and 5 personal fouls, which led to his Arizian plus/minus of -7. He is not a guy who is going to set the world on fire with his defense, but from him the Wizards are mostly looking for offense. He is on the court to score, and he can put it in the basket in a variety of ways. Obviously I am jumping the gun here, but he has the potential to be a more powerful Chris Bosh. He can post you up and score with either hand; he can make the midrange jumper; he can beat you with his quickness; and he can even piss you off until you just want to hit him- à la Kevin Garnett's Technical Foul last night. He doesn't need to light to world on fire on both ends of the floor, he just needs to continue to produce as he has and he becomes one of the five quality Wizards starters with John Wall (out indefinitely), Nenê (out indefinitely), Okafor (not so far), and Bradley Beal (maybe hopefully).

Speaking of Beal, his last matchup against this Celtics team (November 3rd) was a tough one. It was the kind of performance expected from a rookie against a veteran, physical, defensive minded team. Courtney Lee may never come close to the 55 points I scored with him in NCAA 2k7 versus Syracuse, but he plays the caliber defense that made the Celtics want to bring him in to guard Dwyane Wade. Last night Beal played well, part of which is no doubt due to Jason Terry guarding him all night (and actually having to play defense), but most of can be traced back to Beal himself. He was more confident last night than he has been with the Wizards, taking 15 shots, second to Seraphin with 19. He shot a rather pedestrian 40% overall but the fact that he is taking shots and acting like he is one of the Wizards best options, which he became the second he was drafted, is a good sign. He is going to have some hard times this season, probably until John Wall comes back and alleviates the production load for everyone, but the Wizards are going to keep him down in the deep end of the pool until he can learn how to swim.

The Wizards played well enough to win last night for about 3 1/2 Quarters. Then the Celtics turned up the defense pressure, and we came to realize just how much we miss John Wall- as if we didn't know already. The Wizards turned the ball over, they committed some bad fouls, and the Celtics escaped in Overtime. The Wizards played the Eastern Conference's likely No. 2 seed hard twice, coming close to winning both games, which is definitely a positive. But we saw just how flawed our guys are on both ends of the court, and how far away they are from relevancy.

This is the NBA: if you can't compete you might as well tank. And after this 0-3 start we clearly are not contenders. Assuming we stay at the same level, or even improve slightly, we are well on our way to a lottery pick. If we get the right piece we become a playoff team, if we get the wrong piece we fall into a circle of fan hell inhabited only by the Bobcats- where lottery picks go to die. So for now while we wait for our team to improve we can take solace in that we are not, in fact, the Bobcats.





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