State of the Wizards

I can't remember the last time I wrote about the Washington Wizards. That fact is probably more of a reflection upon the success of the Redskins (and how much fun they were to talk about), rather than the  sad state of the basketball franchise in our nation's capital.

Things were "good" for a few moments in recent weeks. John Wall- our lord and savior- has returned from his mysterious knee injury. The Wizards won four of his first six games, until, in typical Wizards fashion, they failed to adapt to, you know, other teams adapting to them.

John Wall likes to push the tempo offensively. Player X grabs the defensive rebound, slings the ball to Wall who takes off like a rocket towards the opposing rim. Wall is one of the NBA's fastest players from one end of the court to the other, and when the opposing defense doesn't get back to slow Wall its a relatively easy two points for Washington.

Problem is that if you and I both can see this, NBA coaches can definitely see this. And that's essentially what happened in the Philadelphia game on January 30th. John pushed the ball like he does and, instead of weaving through players jogging back on defense, he was met with pressure. John Wall apparently doesn't deal well with pressure.

At Philadelphia he shot 3-12 for 9 points, chipping in 6 assists and 5 turnovers. Most of Wall's value lies with his explosiveness and ability to attack the rim and get high-percentage looks. Thus far in 2013, Wall shoots 63% at the rim and 31% from everywhere else- both on a career high pace.

The team only scored 84 points in the loss at Philly, their second lowest point total since John Wall's return. If defenses are going to adapt to Wall's transition inklings, the Wizards are going to need to adapt themselves. Eat or be eaten as it were.

Published in a January 31st Washington Post article, Martell Webster harps on the importance of adaptation. "That's the way this league is. It's all about adjustments...Teams are going to get a whiff of your game plan and they're going to try to do everything they can to deter you." Now that teams know that the Wizards like to run teams will game-plan to stop it. And while the Wizards by no means should give up this aggressive style of play (they're young in attacking positions), they do need to make a better effort in diversifying their scoring ability.

Even with the return of John Wall, the Wizards still offer opponents the worst offense in the NBA. They are dead last in points-per-game (91.3) and field goal percentage (42.2%), and are in the bottom 10 in 3pt%, free-throw%, and turnovers. Not generally considered the ingredients of winning basketball. Indiana's offense has been equally anemic but they give up the second fewest points.

If it can be said that they have one, the Wizards saving grace might just be their defense. They allow 96.1 points-per-game, tied for 8th best in the league. Amazingly, it seems, the Wizards are able to keep games close and give themselves the opportunity to win late. Trevor Ariza and Emeka Okafor lead the way on defense, limiting opposing wings and attackers. John Wall is a plus defender who is be and athletic enough to bully around point guards, while everyone else does nothing. Jan Vesely plays "Hack-a-Shaq" with his defensive match-ups, and Jordan Crawford looks like he is guarding Manti Te'o's girlfriend on most possessions (and by that I mean he guards nobody).

The Wizards are closer to mediocrity than people think. Since Wall's return the Wiz are 6-5. Are they going to make the playoffs? Not likely. But with all their pieces healthy it is not inconceivable that they post a winning- or close to it- record in the second half of the season. The issue, as always, has been the offense.

The Wizards half court offense is a disaster. They are like Lindsay Lohan Level when it comes to discipline. Jordan Crawford is a black hole (once you give him the ball you aren't seeing it again that possession) and their bigs, minus the seldom used Trevor Booker and Jan Vesely, are slow. Okafor, especially recently, has shown signs of competence, averaging 13.4 points and 14.6 rebounds in his last five games. But, as a whole, this unit does not offer much offense. (I'm big on Kevin Seraphin, but he is a defensive liability and therefore doesn't play the minutes his offense would justify).

Anyway, for the Wizards to remain competitive they must improve their half court sets. Transition offense is a key component for many contending teams (i.e. the Thunder), but a large percentage of a teams' offense comes from set plays. The Wizards have a capable creator in John Wall (how capable is a topic for another day) and shooters in Bradley Beal and Webster who can spread the floor. They may not have talent enough to score in the 90's consistently- SHABAZZ 2014- but if John Wall is they player many think he is half court sets wouldn't look this difficult. Part of this disconnect in the half court must be blamed on coach Randy Whittman, a career winner only 32% of the time, who struggles to coach basketball players. If the Wizards could just play more disciplined, and maybe find some more reliable scorers, this offense could improve.

Then again, is second-to-last really that much better than last?

The 2012-2013 Washington Wizards > 2009-2010 New Jersey Nets?

Randy Wittman is sad

I watched the end of the Wizards play the Hawks last night. Whether or not we should have won this game isn’t debatable. We should have, but not because of a Martell Webster buzzer beater after time expired. We should have one that game because we played better than the Hawks for most of the night.

Nenê was back yesterday for the first time this season. It would have been easy to write the narrative where a crappy Wizards team starts to win after getting its, arguably, second best player back. And I'm sure that everyone from the Washington Post or Times was putting together a story just like that. But then Kyle Korver hit a three point shot from what memory tells me was half court (though it was probably 3ft behind the line) and put the Wizards to bed.

To say that Nenê’s foul on Devin Harris with 3.7 seconds left in the fourth was what caused the Wizards to lose this game is unfair. To completely ignore it, however, also cannot be done. The Wizards were in a position to win this game until they fouled the Hawks twice in the last five seconds of the game and essentially handed the Hawks a shot at overtime. It’s this undisciplined play that Wizards fans have become accustomed to seeing thus far in 2012, and what accounts for the Wizards league rankings of 22^nd in turnovers and 26^th in fouls per game (22.7).

To say that the Wizards are unbelievably difficult to watch and support on a nightly basis is an understatement. But that is the nature of fandom. You take the sweet with the bitter and the good with the bad. The 2012-2013 Wizards are bad. They are 0-10 right now, and have become just the 13^th team in NBA history to begin a season with 10 straight losses. The New Jersey Nets currently hold the record for the longest losing streak to begin a season with 18 straight, which begs the question for Wizards fans: Can we break this record? (Do we want this record?)

It is (probably) not a record that the Wizards want to be associated with. But then again, as I’ve said before, in the NBA you either compete or you tank. (#ShabazzSweepstakes) The Wizards are well on their way to tanking and, as a Wizards fan, it feels right. The Wizards have a few pieces, though they still need a few things, and the only way they are going to get them is through the draft. (Or Free Agency but who really wants to come play for the Wizards?)

But for now all we have to occupy ourselves with is the passionate pursuit of imperfection. Can the Wizards break the Nets streak of 18 games in a row? Let’s look:

11/24 vs Charlotte: Can we win this game? Absolutely. We lost to them earlier in the season and they have nearly matched their 2011-2012 win total, but their team is definitely not more skilled than the Wizards and this game will be relatively close. Do I think we should win this game? Yes. Will we? Ehh…probably not.

11/26 vs San Antonio: One of my friends likes to say that he is offended how much A.J. Price plays for an NBA team. I am not quite that offended, though if you think he can do anything against Tony Parker you are wrong. The Spurs have one of the best offenses in the league, the best coach in the league, and a scarily deep bench. The Wizards have none of these things. Blow-out-city.

11/28 vs Portland: They really aren’t that good. Last night they played all 13 guys who suited up, which tells me that Terry Stotts (the head coach) has no idea how to utilize his team. The Wizards have similar problems. Here is a Randy Wittman quote after the Wizards lost to the Pacers on 11/19: “I don’t know who to start, who to play, who not to play…” I may not be involved in professional basketball on a personal level but even I can tell you that those words don't sound good. (#ShabazzSweepstakes) The Blazers match-up really well against the Wizards, and though they may not have an identity yet, the Wizards aren't going to do much in Portland. Sorry.

11/30 at New York: The Knicks are actually good this season but they have one of the NBA’s shortest benches (Rasheed Wallace plays 15+ minutes a night!). The talent level  on these two teams are not as far apart as it may seem- forget about Carmelo- so I think that this game is likely to be more competitive than people think. If Carmelo plays an inefficient game (not likely) the Wizards can win, otherwise the Knicks just score too much for the Wizards basement dwelling offense to keep up.

12/4 vs Miami: Maybe if Lebron gets the flu. I hear it’s going around.

12/7 at Atlanta: We just lost a heartbreaker to these fools. If we don’t get our first win from Charlotte this is definitely going to be win numero uno. Or the Wizards could collapse down the stretch and lose again. Really the 2012-2013 Wizards are confusing. They are good for most of the game and fade down the stretch, or they start slow and work their way back only to blow it at the end. The 2012 Wizards are like Meek Mill’s newest CD. You go in thinking that it might be okay because you heard that song “Amen” and it was pretty good. But then you hear the rest of the album and decide you should have bought Kendrick Lamar’s CD instead. Stupid is as stupid does I guess.

12/8 vs Golden State: If Golden State was in the Eastern Conference they would be a Playoff team. They aren’t. What they are is young. They shoot threes; they grab some rebounds, and they have a pretty terrible defense. The Wizards defend the three point shot like able bodied NBA players should (top 5 in three point percentage against), which bodes well for their chances here. The Warriors also don’t have a dynamic Point Guard, something that gives the Wizards problems. If you don’t think that they are going to beat the Bobcats or the Hawks, this is going to be the Wizards first win. It’s too good of a match-up for the Wizards not to win this game. But I feel like I’ve said this before…

12/11 at New Orleans: The Hornets are pretty terrible. If Anthony Davis comes back from his ankle injury in time for this game then the Wizards chances of winning are diminished, but not significantly so. Subtracting Davis, the only Hornet who would start for another team is Ryan Anderson, and that team probably wouldn’t be very good. I think the Wizards win this game, but at some points I wonder if the Wizards are really bad enough to lose all of these games. Then I crack open the Sam Adams and I don't care as much. 

12/12 at Houston: The NBA’s 4^th leading scorer (for now), and 4^th leading rebounder receive paychecks from the Rockets and yet they are 5-7. This team is big; they can shoot threes, and are wildly inconsistent. The Wizards are going to lose this game because no one on the Wizards can stop James Harden, but by no means will they be overmatched.  

My prediction for this stretch is 3-6. We are not going to break that Nets record this year, no sir. I still think that we are headed for that No. 1 pick in June, which is good because my Shabazz Muhammad UCLA jersey is already in the mail.