Redskins to the Playoffs!!!!!!! (The "D" is silent)

Somewhere on a cold night at the end of December, Jessica Simpson is laughing. Somewhere Jessica Simpson just finished watching the Cowboys play the Redskins- in a game that determined the NFC East champion- and enjoyed herself. Jessica Simpson is not a Redskins fan (probably) but I think we can be fairly sure that she roots against Tony Romo. If we believe what the tabloids say (and why would we) Romo told Simpson they were never, ever getting back together the day before her 29th birthday.

That was three years ago, but Romo's bad Karma carried over into Landover, MD on the eve of the eve of the New Year. The witchcraft of America's former sweetheart, Simpson, crippled Romo last night as he threw three interceptions. Alfred Morris, the Redskins single-season rushing record-holder, scored thrice and the Redskins won 28-18. D.C., as many a twitter with excitement pointed out, D.C. now stands for Division Champs.

Full disclosure: I haven't seen Django Unchained yet. I want to, like, really badly. I enjoy Quentin Tarantino films and I LOVE Rick Ross:

I saw The Hobbit instead, which is not exactly a terrible movie, just one I had little to not desire to watch. It was no Abe Lincoln: Vampire Hunter (I'm still waiting for my money back), but it wasn't even remotely The Two Towers good. One of my New Years resolutions is to make better movie choices.

As I am writing this I am listening to Django's quasi-theme song, "100 Black Coffins," and it's pumping me up for two reasons: (1) I decided to shell out the $15 necessary to watch Django in theaters later today(!) and (2) the Redskins made the playoffs for the first time five years.

I had planned on writing a game recap, full of armchair analysis and dry, jargon-y language, but then I listened to the Rick Ross song for the 188th time (still fantastic) and took my talents in another direction.

This Rick Ross song is a power anthem. You could triple the length of your run if you blasted this into your ear drums on repeat; you could play this at a house party and start a riot; or you could pay someone lots of money to follow you around to blast this song as your own personal theme music. Either of these would be fine.

I have chosen a different use for the song, however. "100 Black Coffins" will forever remind me of last nights game, just as I have forever associated Avici's "Levels" with fraternity parties. And because that is the case I decided it would be apropos to relive this game through Rick Ross's lyrics.

Great idea or greatest idea?

(Lyrics courtesy of RapGenius):

"I need a hundred black coffins for a hundred bad men
a hundred black graves so I can lay they a-- in
I need a hundred black preachers, with a black sermon to tell
From a hundred black Bibles, while we send them all to Hell"
-This was Alfred Morris' mantra last night while he rushed for 200 yards and scored three touchdowns. He was player of the game and even made a late push for Rookie of the Year consideration. It was because of him, and not RG3, that the Redskins are moving on and the Cowboys are going home. One-by-one he dug the graves that the members of the Cowboys organization will lay in come Monday afternoon (hopefully).

There's Jerry Jones, the most hands-on owner in sports. After Jones commissioned the new Cowboy's Stadium, Stuart Scott quoted a source as saying that the new stadium was "Jerry Jones' personal middle finger to the recession." His ego barely fits in the Dallas metro-area, let alone Cowboys Stadium, and his steadfast refusal to hire a GM (and instead assemble a roster himself) has resulted in ONE playoff win since 1995. The Cowboys will never win again as long as he owns the team. Just as the Rebels destroyed the Death Star at the end of Star Wars, so to must the Cowboys free themselves from the shackles of the Jerry Jones Federation.

There's Sgt. Nicholas Brody Head Coach Jason Garrett. Most of his problems undoubtably come from issues with Jones, but he takes on much of the criticism. Dallas has talent on it's roster, and it is the role of the Head Coach to maximize it and churn out the wins. An 8-8 season in Dallas doesn't cut it especially when they consider themselves contenders every year. He likely will survive to 2013, but a bad start to next season could find him a few spots behind me on the unemployment line.

Then there's Tony Romo. He is 1-6 in "win or go home" games over the course of his career. He threw three picks last night (admittedly because of Jessica Simpson's witch-like ability to force turnovers) and has cemented his reputation as the NFL's least "clutch" player. Statistically he is in the discussion for greatest Cowboy quarterback or all-time, but then you remember he has only won one career playoff game. The rookie quarterback who wins in next weeks Redskins-Seahawks game will tie Romo's record. Congratulations in advance.

The Cowboys under Jones has never been afraid to shake up their roster or make drastic, sometimes rash decisions with personnel. Like the Yankees and Lakers, the Cowboys are always supposed to win and when they don't heads roll. Or, as Jerry Jones might say, there's "a hundred black coffins where I can lay your a-- in."

"Killers coming for you life, all you wanna do is shine?
I broke off the chains only the realest remain
I see your praying to Jesus, but will that help ease the pain?
-RG3. He runs a lot and takes a beating. Last night DeMarcus Ware was coming for RG3's life, but he never touched the guy. Those read option plays the Redskins run from the pistol nullified any impact the linebacker would have on the game. All RG3 wanna do is shine, okay?

Last week Mike Shannahan tightened the grip on his quarterback- he rushed only twice- and ran a more standard pro-style of offense. Yesterday, however, RG3 was more active in the run game and broke off some long runs. More significant than the yards he picked up, in the big picture, was the threat of him running. Like I said before, that read option offense-when done correctly- is tough for a defense to stop. Do RG3 or Morris have the ball? Is it even a run? The defense is left to make split second decisions on who to mark and if they are wrong, like the Cowboys last night, the Redskins can make them pay (274 yards rushing).

Even better for 'Skins fans is how much healthier RG3 looked this week compared to last. He was probably 75% on that hurt knee and was able to get to the outside on some of his rushing attempts last night. He wasn't to keen on taking contact, which is going to be better for his health and safety in the long-term, but he still remained effective. If he continues to heal at this same rate he may be close to 100% by Sunday. The Seahawks have one of the League's top defenses so the Redskins need as healthy an RG3 as they can get.

"Is you a cat or a mouse? Keep them rats out the house"
-This is the part of the post where I shout-out DeAngelo Hall. He played well last night for a guy who only learned to tackle earlier this season. He kept Dez Bryant, who had been ON FIRE in previous weeks, out of the endzone for the first time since Week 9.

"Our revenge is the sweetest, b---- cause I'm coming"
-This is the NFL's best rivalry game that doesn't involve a Manning or a Brady (I don't know any other Brady's but I like the way this sentence sounds). The Cowboys lead the all-time series versus the Redskins 62-42-2 and are 17-9 since 2001. The momentum in this series is poised to shift in the Redskins favor in the coming years as it appears the Romo-led Cowboys are on their last legs while the RG3 'Skins are the League's next big thing. Knowing this feels so good.

I just listened to the song again. I can't tell if I am more excited for the Seahawks or the movie. I'll let you know.

Happy New Years, kids! See you in 2013.

For Your Consideration: Jan Vesely, Candidate for Bust

Jan Vesely is a professional basketball player for the Washington Wizards. That may be obvious, but I say that because there is a chance you haven't seen him play this year. In a season where the highs are few and far between and the lows are omnipresent- the latest being a 30 point loss at the hands of the Miami Heat- Jan Vesely represents everything that is wrong with the Wizards. From the management side to the basketball side, Jan Vesely is a walking embodiment of the Wizards futility.

After Vesely was drafted, ESPN's Fran Fraschilla described him in the following way: "He's a 6-11, energy guy...you don't have to run any plays for him. He is going to score in transition, he is going to score off of offensive rebounds and lobs. He is a freak athlete, and I do believe he is going to win a dunk contest." That's it. He didn't talk about his ability as a basketball player- though he did joke about his taste in women- or anything about his international career. He can dunk. Awesome. Is that why the Wizards drafted him? Because he can dunk?

Jan Vesely was born in Ostrava, Czech Republic, the third largest city in the country and a pretty intense sports town. He grew up with sports in his DNA: his father played professional basketball and his mother played professional volleyball. Little Jan, presumedly, was playing on his Fisher Price basketball hoop while other kids were collecting Beanie Babies. Ostrava is nicknamed the "steel heart of the republic," and, despite efforts to clean up its coal industry, it remains one of the most polluted cities in the European Union.

So far in the 2012 season Jan Vesely has committed more personal fouls than has points scored. He is athletic but, let's face it, he does more bad than good. He can't find playing time on the worst team in the NBA, and that doesn't say much about him as a player.

"Bust" is a complex word. I'm not really sure if anyone is qualified enough to precisely define exactly what makes a professional athlete a "bust," but that doesn't stop the multitudes from assigning this label to anyone who "underperforms." But what exactly is underperforming?  Sam Bowie was not a "bust," though compared to those selected after him in his draft class he was nowhere near as good. He wasn't as good as Michael Jordan, Charles Barkley, or John Stockton (all picked after him), but he contributed in the NBA. He averaged 10.9 points and 7.5 rebounds during his 10 year career, hardly "bust" numbers.

In order to categorize "busts," however, one must first define exactly what the word means. A "bust," to me, is someone who comes into the league with hype and is expected to contribute at, at least, a league average level. Does that mean it is any first-round pick? I don't think so. There are 60 players selected in any given Draft, and to say that 30 of those players should eventually become league average is foolish. Is Jimmy Butler going to become league average? Probably not. Then again, no one really expects him to. I think one must trim the number of players eligible for "bust" status. In fact, if one looks at the numbers, first-round picks have about the same odds of becoming league average independent of draft position.

Based on win shares, those selected with lottery picks from 2000-2009 (picks No. 1 through No. 13) became league average (sustaining a .10 win share rate per 48 minutes) players 24% of the time. Using the same metric, picks 14-30 have a league average win share rate 25% of the time. This means that the bottom half of first-round picks have become league average just as often as lottery picks.

Yes, there are players like LeBron James, John Wall, Kyrie Irving, and Anthony Davis, players who are (seemingly) obvious locks to contribute in the NBA. Those players, and other top five draft selections, have a high rate of success. Of the 50 players selected in the top five from 2000-2009 there have been only 5 bona fide busts: Marcus Fizer, Jay Williams, Nikoloz Tskitishvili, Adam Morrison, and Greg Oden (Hasheem Thabeet to me is on the fence). That is a 10% failure rate, or, more accurately, a 90% success rate in selecting players so early in the draft.

Then there is the argument to be made that International players make for poor draft selections. Players who come from other countries and leagues (so not including players like Tim Duncan, Hasheem Thabeet, Ronny Turiaf, Luol Deng or Samuel Dalembert, who all played college basketball in the United States) are harder for NBA scouts and executives to evaluate. Those leagues have talent that pales in comparison to that of the NBA, which forces scouts to grade these players against inferior competition. The speed of the international game is different too. The shot clock is longer, reducing scoring, and until recently the three point line was three feet shorter. The court is a different shape, especially with respect to the lane. See for yourself:

The trapezoidal construction of the lane in international play forces post players further away from the basket. Whereas NBA players who have "posted up" need only to rotate their feet to be in position for a layup, international players need to dribble and rely on short jumpers. It is clearly a different game, and it is more difficult to determine how skill sets will translate to the NBA.

Over the course of his young career, Jan Vesely averages 4.1 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 2.64 fouls per game. Because he is a role player, however, these numbers are somewhat expected. The problem is Jan Vesely should not be a role player. He was the No. 6 pick in the NBA Draft; common sense tells us that he should be productive. He hasn't. His career Player Efficiency Rating of 10.5 is significantly lower than the league average of 15, and his win shares per 48 minutes (where .10 is league average) scrapes the bottom of the barrel at .063.

He is limited offensively (this is his shooting chart for 2011-2012), and is not strong, physical, or aggressive enough to grab as many rebounds as his 6-11 frame suggests he should. From what Jan Vesely has shown fans, and the rest of the NBA, it is a wonder as to why the Wizards selected him with the 6th pick.

At the time, no one thought that the 2011 Draft was especially deep. Kyrie Irving and Derrick Williams were the only "sure things." Irving has been good, if not great, while Williams has remained hit or miss for the Minnesota Timberwolves. The rest of the top five went: Enes Kanter, Tristan Thompson, and Jonas Valanciunas. Not exactly a murderers row of prospects. The only thing that the Wizards really did not need coming into the Draft was a Point Guard, and therefore any selection netting the Wizards with some talent would have been welcome. Early speculations had the Wizards taking Kawhi Leonard; a high-motor player who would have done wonders to change the Confederacy of Dunces (Nick Young, JaVale McGee, Andray Blatche) the Wizards were running with.

We grabbed Jan Vesely. NBADraft.net, a website that offers scouting analysis and draft prediction, ranked Vesely the 6th best player in the 2011 class. Vesely, it says, is tall, athletic, a high energy guy, and can shoot threes. None of which are really helping him as a NBA player right now.

At 6-11, Jan Vesely is a tall Small Forward. It is also the position that scouts and fans assumed he would play in the NBA, but that has not been the case. The problem is that the Wizards have a glut of Small Forwards: Trevor Ariza, Martell Webster, Chris Singleton, Cartier Martin, and Jan Vesely all play the position. Because of his height, the only conceivable lineup where Vesely would play Small Forward is one with Emeka Okafor or Nenê, Kevin Seraphin, Vesely, and two guards. This lineup, however, has not so much logged a minute for the 2012-2013 Washington Wizards. The two lineups that Vesely has played most in, per Basketball Reference, are Ariza/Jordan Crawford/Okafor/A.J. Price, and Crawford/Janero Pargo/Seraphin/Webster. Neither allows him to utilize his height over smaller Small Forwards, instead he and his wiry frame are left to matchup with similarly sized or even larger Power Forwards.

As for his athleticism and energy, it's hard for those to make much of a difference when (A) he almost exclusively plays in the post area, and (B) the Wizards have only three wins. Vesely is a pick and roll Point Guard's dream, but the Wizards offense is hardly organized enough to use him in that capacity. As far as I can tell the Wizards run the same offense as guys who play pick-up games at Rucker Park. They run around, try to get open, and then shoot. Jordan Crawford just runs around and shoots, he doesn't care about being open. Instead of spreading out the floor with Vesely as an option on the wing, he is left motionless in the lane and required to create his own offense. Talk about setting yourself up to fail. As for his supposed high energy? The Wizards haven't seen a lot of it. I don't know...if I was getting garbage minutes in a 30 point blowout by the Miami Heat, I would have trouble diving for balls too.

The worst part about Vesely's game, however, and the one thing that needs to change is his shooting. NBADraft.net compares him to Mike Dunleavy Jr. and Andrei Kirilenko, both of whom are tall Small Forwards and shoot the three point shot well. These comparisons confuse me. Vesely has not shown himself to be a particularly adept shooter at any point in these past two seasons. Nor did he prove it in Europe. He shot 27% from three in three seasons worth of games in the EuroLeague, and 28% in four seasons in the Adriatic League. He is not a three point shooter, in fact, in his NBA career he has taken one three point shot. One. If he could shoot you would think he would do it, right? But his shooting issues go well beyond the three point line. He can't shoot from anywhere. In 2011-2012 he took 61 jump shots and made 6: a 10% shooting percentage. Of the 117 field goals he did make, 63 of them were dunks. Dunks are high percentage shots, undoubtably, but outside 3ft from the basket he shot only 15%- which is cause for concern. His offense is limited, and when one compares 2012 to 2011 Vesely does not appear to have taken any steps forward in terms of development.

The biggest issue with Jan Vesely is his speed. He is not fast or quick enough to play on the wing- which is why the Wizards have him in the post- and on defense this results in an inordinate number of personal fouls. As of December 16th he has 37 personal fouls and 31 points scored, a ratio, if it continues to hold for the rest of the season, would place him in miserable company. Because of his size, lack of speed or strength, he is a player without a position. He can jump and dunk the basketball at an elite level, but basketball is a game that requires significantly more skill than that to succeed. Until he develops a jump shot- any kind of shot really- or puts on enough muscle to bang in the post, he will never be a factor in the NBA.

Is Jan Vesely a "bust?" Not yet. It is too soon to pass that kind of judgement on a second year player who is adjusting to the NBA while also adjusting to American life. But if he remains "the-worst-player-on-the-worst-team" caliber, you have my permission to label him a "bust." It only seems fair.

What Exactly Is An LCL?

There was only one other time in my life that I felt the way I did after watching Robert Griffin III absorb that hit by Haloti Ngata: August 21st 2010. That was the day Stephen Strasburg heard something in his elbow pop and took himself out of the game. He needed Tommy John Surgery.

When I saw Griffin's leg whip the way it did last Sunday I feared the worst. I've never seen a hit like that cause a body part move like that. It was as scary as it was disgusting. The PG-rated thought that went through my head was: "Oh no, I hope that's not his ACL."

It wasn't. *Exhale*

Griffin had torn his ACL his sophomore year at Baylor (and actually didn't come out right away), and another injury of that caliber would have been devastating. Not only would it have knocked Griffin out for 7-9 months, and all but killed the Redskins chance of the Playoffs, but it would have radically altered the course of Griffin's career.

Griffin is an extremely talented passer, no doubt, but much of his value to the Redskins comes on account of his legs. The pistol formation, the formation from which most our offense is run, works because of its versatility. The Redskins run a series of option plays: triple options, speed options, and read options. Take away Griffin's legs and his burst, and suddenly that offense is not possible. There is a reason that Tom Brady and Peyton Manning don't run this offense; it takes a certain kind of personnel to make it work. A second ACL surgery for Griffin likely would have impacted his running ability, if not hamper it altogether. If he can't run, he is not going to be as effective.

However this wasn't an ACL, it was an LCL.

Griffin was diagnosed with a "mild" or Grade 1 sprain of the LCL (lateral collateral ligament), one of the most treatable and least disabling knee injuries.

     
The LCL is a fibrous band of tissue that connects the femur (thigh bone) to the fibula. This mild sprain means that the ligament was stretched too far, possibly tearing some tiny fibers, but not something critical to the stability of the knee.

Which is a good thing. No, or minimal, structural damage to the knee means that through rest and frequent ice and elevation the knee will heal. Question is: when?

Brett Favre had a similar strain to his LCL in 2002, and played the next weekend. Griffin's status is not so clear. The timetable for this kind of strain is anywhere from 1-6 weeks. He could end up playing Sunday against the Browns, but his knee may not be entirely healthy, putting him at further risk of injury. "Mild" strains such as this are often accompanied with bone bruises on the inside part of the knee. In an article for the Washington Post on Tuesday, Neal ElAttrache, an orthopedic surgeon at Kerlan-Jobe Orthopaedic Clinic in Los Angeles, said of the potential impact of such a bone bruise: "it may also cause some discomfort that would prevent the knee from functioning immediately. In my experience, those injuries can take several weeks to heal."

Griffin is questionable for Sunday's matchup against the Cleveland Browns, though he seems to have practiced with the team Wednesday afternoon. The Redskins are in a precarious position: to play Griffin and risk his health (spurning long term investment for short term gain) or to sit him and risk falling out of the Playoff race entirely?

The Redskins need to sit Griffin. The franchise mortgaged an arm and a leg to get him from the St. Louis Rams, in the hopes that he would lead the team for the next two decades. Yes, the goal of drafting Griffin was to get into the Playoffs and contend for championships, but this was not supposed to be the year. RGIII did not go through the growing pains that fans and pundits expected, and the offense has sneakily been consistently good. The defense is another story altogether. Brian Orakpo and Adam Carriker were lost for the season long ago, and the secondary hasn't shown up for any game this season. Further injury to Griffin's knee would be disastrous for the Redskins, and they simply cannot risk it.

The Cleveland Browns are 5-8 and steadily improving, but in terms of talent level they leave much to be desired. If RGIII is not ready to start, he should not play. Player safety has been a paramount issue for the NFL in recent years, and if we are to believe that any of what they are saying actually matters the Redskins should not play Griffin until he is pain free. It's not worth the risk. Kirk Cousins can handle it.