Sunday, December 16, 2012

For Your Consideration: Jan Vesely, Candidate for Bust



Jan Vesely is a professional basketball player for the Washington Wizards. That may be obvious, but I say that because there is a chance you haven't seen him play this year. In a season where the highs are few and far between and the lows are omnipresent- the latest being a 30 point loss at the hands of the Miami Heat- Jan Vesely represents everything that is wrong with the Wizards. From the management side to the basketball side, Jan Vesely is a walking embodiment of the Wizards futility.

After Vesely was drafted, ESPN's Fran Fraschilla described him in the following way: "He's a 6-11, energy guy...you don't have to run any plays for him. He is going to score in transition, he is going to score off of offensive rebounds and lobs. He is a freak athlete, and I do believe he is going to win a dunk contest." That's it. He didn't talk about his ability as a basketball player- though he did joke about his taste in women- or anything about his international career. He can dunk. Awesome. Is that why the Wizards drafted him? Because he can dunk?

Jan Vesely was born in Ostrava, Czech Republic, the third largest city in the country and a pretty intense sports town. He grew up with sports in his DNA: his father played professional basketball and his mother played professional volleyball. Little Jan, presumedly, was playing on his Fisher Price basketball hoop while other kids were collecting Beanie Babies. Ostrava is nicknamed the "steel heart of the republic," and, despite efforts to clean up its coal industry, it remains one of the most polluted cities in the European Union.

So far in the 2012 season Jan Vesely has committed more personal fouls than has points scored. He is athletic but, let's face it, he does more bad than good. He can't find playing time on the worst team in the NBA, and that doesn't say much about him as a player.

"Bust" is a complex word. I'm not really sure if anyone is qualified enough to precisely define exactly what makes a professional athlete a "bust," but that doesn't stop the multitudes from assigning this label to anyone who "underperforms." But what exactly is underperforming?  Sam Bowie was not a "bust," though compared to those selected after him in his draft class he was nowhere near as good. He wasn't as good as Michael Jordan, Charles Barkley, or John Stockton (all picked after him), but he contributed in the NBA. He averaged 10.9 points and 7.5 rebounds during his 10 year career, hardly "bust" numbers.

In order to categorize "busts," however, one must first define exactly what the word means. A "bust," to me, is someone who comes into the league with hype and is expected to contribute at, at least, a league average level. Does that mean it is any first-round pick? I don't think so. There are 60 players selected in any given Draft, and to say that 30 of those players should eventually become league average is foolish. Is Jimmy Butler going to become league average? Probably not. Then again, no one really expects him to. I think one must trim the number of players eligible for "bust" status. In fact, if one looks at the numbers, first-round picks have about the same odds of becoming league average independent of draft position.

Based on win shares, those selected with lottery picks from 2000-2009 (picks No. 1 through No. 13) became league average (sustaining a .10 win share rate per 48 minutes) players 24% of the time. Using the same metric, picks 14-30 have a league average win share rate 25% of the time. This means that the bottom half of first-round picks have become league average just as often as lottery picks.

Yes, there are players like LeBron James, John Wall, Kyrie Irving, and Anthony Davis, players who are (seemingly) obvious locks to contribute in the NBA. Those players, and other top five draft selections, have a high rate of success. Of the 50 players selected in the top five from 2000-2009 there have been only 5 bona fide busts: Marcus Fizer, Jay Williams, Nikoloz Tskitishvili, Adam Morrison, and Greg Oden (Hasheem Thabeet to me is on the fence). That is a 10% failure rate, or, more accurately, a 90% success rate in selecting players so early in the draft.

Then there is the argument to be made that International players make for poor draft selections. Players who come from other countries and leagues (so not including players like Tim Duncan, Hasheem Thabeet, Ronny Turiaf, Luol Deng or Samuel Dalembert, who all played college basketball in the United States) are harder for NBA scouts and executives to evaluate. Those leagues have talent that pales in comparison to that of the NBA, which forces scouts to grade these players against inferior competition. The speed of the international game is different too. The shot clock is longer, reducing scoring, and until recently the three point line was three feet shorter. The court is a different shape, especially with respect to the lane. See for yourself:


The trapezoidal construction of the lane in international play forces post players further away from the basket. Whereas NBA players who have "posted up" need only to rotate their feet to be in position for a layup, international players need to dribble and rely on short jumpers. It is clearly a different game, and it is more difficult to determine how skill sets will translate to the NBA.

Over the course of his young career, Jan Vesely averages 4.1 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 2.64 fouls per game. Because he is a role player, however, these numbers are somewhat expected. The problem is Jan Vesely should not be a role player. He was the No. 6 pick in the NBA Draft; common sense tells us that he should be productive. He hasn't. His career Player Efficiency Rating of 10.5 is significantly lower than the league average of 15, and his win shares per 48 minutes (where .10 is league average) scrapes the bottom of the barrel at .063.

He is limited offensively (this is his shooting chart for 2011-2012), and is not strong, physical, or aggressive enough to grab as many rebounds as his 6-11 frame suggests he should. From what Jan Vesely has shown fans, and the rest of the NBA, it is a wonder as to why the Wizards selected him with the 6th pick.

At the time, no one thought that the 2011 Draft was especially deep. Kyrie Irving and Derrick Williams were the only "sure things." Irving has been good, if not great, while Williams has remained hit or miss for the Minnesota Timberwolves. The rest of the top five went: Enes Kanter, Tristan Thompson, and Jonas Valanciunas. Not exactly a murderers row of prospects. The only thing that the Wizards really did not need coming into the Draft was a Point Guard, and therefore any selection netting the Wizards with some talent would have been welcome. Early speculations had the Wizards taking Kawhi Leonard; a high-motor player who would have done wonders to change the Confederacy of Dunces (Nick Young, JaVale McGee, Andray Blatche) the Wizards were running with.

We grabbed Jan Vesely. NBADraft.net, a website that offers scouting analysis and draft prediction, ranked Vesely the 6th best player in the 2011 class. Vesely, it says, is tall, athletic, a high energy guy, and can shoot threes. None of which are really helping him as a NBA player right now.

At 6-11, Jan Vesely is a tall Small Forward. It is also the position that scouts and fans assumed he would play in the NBA, but that has not been the case. The problem is that the Wizards have a glut of Small Forwards: Trevor Ariza, Martell Webster, Chris Singleton, Cartier Martin, and Jan Vesely all play the position. Because of his height, the only conceivable lineup where Vesely would play Small Forward is one with Emeka Okafor or Nenê, Kevin Seraphin, Vesely, and two guards. This lineup, however, has not so much logged a minute for the 2012-2013 Washington Wizards. The two lineups that Vesely has played most in, per Basketball Reference, are Ariza/Jordan Crawford/Okafor/A.J. Price, and Crawford/Janero Pargo/Seraphin/Webster. Neither allows him to utilize his height over smaller Small Forwards, instead he and his wiry frame are left to matchup with similarly sized or even larger Power Forwards.

As for his athleticism and energy, it's hard for those to make much of a difference when (A) he almost exclusively plays in the post area, and (B) the Wizards have only three wins. Vesely is a pick and roll Point Guard's dream, but the Wizards offense is hardly organized enough to use him in that capacity. As far as I can tell the Wizards run the same offense as guys who play pick-up games at Rucker Park. They run around, try to get open, and then shoot. Jordan Crawford just runs around and shoots, he doesn't care about being open. Instead of spreading out the floor with Vesely as an option on the wing, he is left motionless in the lane and required to create his own offense. Talk about setting yourself up to fail. As for his supposed high energy? The Wizards haven't seen a lot of it. I don't know...if I was getting garbage minutes in a 30 point blowout by the Miami Heat, I would have trouble diving for balls too.

The worst part about Vesely's game, however, and the one thing that needs to change is his shooting. NBADraft.net compares him to Mike Dunleavy Jr. and Andrei Kirilenko, both of whom are tall Small Forwards and shoot the three point shot well. These comparisons confuse me. Vesely has not shown himself to be a particularly adept shooter at any point in these past two seasons. Nor did he prove it in Europe. He shot 27% from three in three seasons worth of games in the EuroLeague, and 28% in four seasons in the Adriatic League. He is not a three point shooter, in fact, in his NBA career he has taken one three point shot. One. If he could shoot you would think he would do it, right? But his shooting issues go well beyond the three point line. He can't shoot from anywhere. In 2011-2012 he took 61 jump shots and made 6: a 10% shooting percentage. Of the 117 field goals he did make, 63 of them were dunks. Dunks are high percentage shots, undoubtably, but outside 3ft from the basket he shot only 15%- which is cause for concern. His offense is limited, and when one compares 2012 to 2011 Vesely does not appear to have taken any steps forward in terms of development.

The biggest issue with Jan Vesely is his speed. He is not fast or quick enough to play on the wing- which is why the Wizards have him in the post- and on defense this results in an inordinate number of personal fouls. As of December 16th he has 37 personal fouls and 31 points scored, a ratio, if it continues to hold for the rest of the season, would place him in miserable company. Because of his size, lack of speed or strength, he is a player without a position. He can jump and dunk the basketball at an elite level, but basketball is a game that requires significantly more skill than that to succeed. Until he develops a jump shot- any kind of shot really- or puts on enough muscle to bang in the post, he will never be a factor in the NBA.

Is Jan Vesely a "bust?" Not yet. It is too soon to pass that kind of judgement on a second year player who is adjusting to the NBA while also adjusting to American life. But if he remains "the-worst-player-on-the-worst-team" caliber, you have my permission to label him a "bust." It only seems fair.

2 comments:

  1. Face it, he's a bust. He has shown absolutely no potential for getting better.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I think it's still pretty early. Certainly seems we are headed that way though.

    ReplyDelete