Breaking Down the Denard Span Trade

If you don’t know, now you know. Denard Span of the Minnesota Twins has been traded to the Nationals for pitching prospect Alex Meyer.

What does this mean for the Nationals in 2012? 

Excellent news.

First, what we gave up. Alex Meyer, a 6-9 220 RHP, was the No. 4 prospect in the Washington Nationals farm system. Last year he gave an indication of his future prowess: over two levels Meyer won 10 games, posted a 2.86 ERA, struck out 139 hitters, and opposing batters hit a measly .211 against him.

Meyer is scouts dream, and the kind of prospect that GM’s drool over. For one, he is 6-9. Clark Kellogg would probably call him “gracile,” or some other lengthy SAT word that probably doesn't exist. In the eyes of scouts and others who evaluate talent, height is a critical characteristic for a pitcher. The thinking is that they are more durable than a similarly talented pitcher who is 6-1 or shorter. Does that actually hold true? Not really. Durability and velocity generated is often independent of height (for every Randy Johnson, there is a Pedro Martinez), and if we look at the height of the average Hall of Fame pitcher we find that it is only 6-1. So while height does matter in some things (like if you want to date pretty girls) it's not the be all end all of a pitching career. 

Tall pitchers actually face challenges that their shorter brethren don’t. It’s actually harder for them to repeat their delivery on a consistent basis (with all those moving parts and whatnot), which can result in a lack of control and having to trade velocity for accuracy.

Meyer’s fastball tops around 98 MPH, and scouts grade his high 80's slider as something that can eventually become an above average pitch. But right now he is raw. He is a two-pitch pitcher who throws a slowly improving change up, however, he doesn’t figure to crack a Major League rotation anytime before 2014 at the earliest. Denard Span is going to make an impact in April.  

I’ve never personally witnessed Meyer pitch, but scouts and other people who deal with advanced metrics suggest that his ceiling is somewhere as a No. 2 or No. 3 pitcher, with a very good chance he ends up as a back of the bullpen guy. Obviously, a lot has to go right for him to get level. With Span we already know he is a starting caliber Center Fielder.

But even if Meyer reaches his ceiling, and truthfully it’s two early to tell, the Nationals just made an excellent trade.

The Nationals plan this offseason was three-fold: get a Center Fielder, get a Pitcher, and figure out what to do with Laroche. Trading for Denard Span checks Outfielder off of Mike Rizzo’s Christmas List and actually saves the Nationals a pretty significant sum of money. B.J. Upton just signed a 5 year/ $75 Million dollar contract with the Braves (starting at 12.45M in 2013 and climbing by 1M a year until 2017), a deal the Nationals would have likely offered him as well. Michael Bourn, the other top tier Free Agent Center Fielder on the market, is going to likely end up being even more expensive than that. The Nationals control Span’s rights for 3 years and owe him 4.75M in ’13, 6.5M in ’14, and have a 9M team option for ’15. That's peanuts for the talent he brings.

Denard Span has been a more valuable player over the course of his career than both B.J. Upton and Michael Bourn. His average WAR per season is 3.3, while B.J. Upton’s 1.7 and Michael Bourn’s 2.7 leave one wondering how they fetched such expensive pay days.

Span, a career .284/.357/.389 hitter, will fit in very nicely with the Nationals. Not only does he get on base and avoid striking out, he is actually one of the game’s better defensive outfielders. With him in the fold for 2013 the Nationals are set to move Bryce Harper to Left Field- minimizing his body from the demands of Center Field- and move Morse…somewhere.

Like I’ve said before, this offseason for the Nationals will come down to Adam Laroche. He wants three years. Rizzo is only willing to give him two. Mike Rizzo’s reluctance to give Laroche tells us something about his future plan. In two years Anthony Rendon, the Nationals Super-Top-Prospect, will be ready to contribute full time (though, probably sooner). Ryan Zimmerman’s shoulder may not hold up much longer at Third Base and he could be flipped across the diamond and experience a very different view of Nationals Park.

The Nationals could chose to let Laroche walk, and move Morse to First Base full time and take all the money they saved and throw it at a Pitcher. Greinke isn’t a realistic option, given his asking price and a slew of other variables, but guys like Kyle Loshe and Ryan Dempster are.

Morse only has one year left on his contract before he will hit the market, which makes his trade value as high as it’s ever going to be (unless he comes out like gangbusters in 2013). The Nationals could trade him for a Dempster level pitcher (or prospects), sign Laroche to a two-year deal with a team option for a third, and then sit tight for the rest of the offseason. Right now we don't know. We are all waiting on Laroche, hopefully he makes his decision soon.

But for now let’s praise Rizzo that we didn’t sign B.J. Upton. Bossman Junior? More like Bossman Junior Varsity. (#5MoreYears)