There’s an episode of “How I Met Your Mother” where Robin’s
old boyfriend from Canada (played by the immortal James Van Der Beek) visits her
for the first time since she was 16. Back then he was good looking and bound
for success. When he visits Robin in New York, however, he is anything but. He
has a beer gut and is balding slightly, but Robin is still very interested in
him and falls back in love with him despite his unattractive exterior. It’s
been a while since I’ve seen that particular episode (or the show itself), but
it’s actually the first thing that popped into my head after I heard that the
Nationals signed Dan Haren.
Dan Haren is the balding James Van Der Beek and the
Nationals are the desperate Robin jumping back into bed with him (the metaphor is perfect, you just have to trust it). Well, according
to Ken Rosenthal, and (honestly) everyone with a smart phone and a working knowledge at the Winter
Meetings.
And I hate it.
Dan Haren is a three time All-Star selection (‘07, ‘08,
’09), has 199 wins, a career 3.66 ERA, and a 7.2 SO/9 average. Pretty solid
numbers. He has been a serviceable (if overrated) No. 2 or No. 3 starter over the
course of his career, and if he pitches to that pedigree he will be a
smart investment for the Nationals. The problem is that he is no longer that
pitcher.
If we take his WARP (wins above replacement player) totals
from his last five seasons we notice a pretty explicit pattern. They are declining. In his second All-Star season (2008) he posted a 5.2 WARP-
a great statistical season; then the wheels slowly started to come off. He posted
4.7, 3.7, 3.0, and 0.8 his last four seasons, essentially transforming from an
All-Star to a borderline starting pitcher.
Surely there must be a reason for this?
Indeed. He is 32 years old and has been hit with a
relatively strong case of old-man syndrome (See: Rodriguez, Alex). In the first six years in the league
(’04-’10) he was placed on the Disabled List or listed as Day-to-Day four times.
He was a workhorse too, throwing (or approaching) 220 innings per season. Recently,
however, he has become less reliable than my father’s old 1995 Ford Explorer (and that was a piece of junk). He had five trips to the DL or listed as day-to-day in the past two seasons alone;
most notably for a chronic stiffness in his lower back that has plagued him
both years.
Injuries can be the result of freak happenings, like taking
a line drive off the hand or arm (or getting back spasms from a sneeze). Haren on the other hand, has been plagued with more serious
injuries (granted I’m not a doctor, but I know it’s not easy to throw a ball
100 times every five days with back problems), which leads me to believe that
his recent lack of production is not an aberration. There is something wrong with him physically, and who is to say that it is fixed?
His fastball velocity over the course of his career had been
rather consistent (90.5-91.5 mph) until last year when he lost a "little" pop. Last
year his average velocity was 88.5 mph- slower than or equal to the three best pitchers on my high school baseball team- by far the lowest of his career.
Pitchers can overcome a lack of velocity, so this dip in velocity is not necessarily a bad thing.
In his three All-Star seasons Haren struck out, on average, 8.5 hitters per 9.
In those three seasons the average velocity of his fastball was greater than 90.5 mph. Last year, with a
two mph drop on his fastball he needed to adjust and become a different pitcher in order to
have any reasonable chance at success. He didn’t.
His line drive percentage last season (the percentage of balls put in play
that are line drives) spiked a full percentage point from his career average.
His pitches were being hit harder than ever before and unlike years previous,
they were leaving the yard. His ground ball percentage decreased by three full
points, while his fly ball percentage (two points) and homerun to fly ball
ratio (three points) spiked significantly. 94% of the pitches he threw were
variations on a fastball (four-seam, two-seam, cutter and splitter), and with his dip in velocity- and complete disregard for his change up (0%) and curveball (6%)- his pitches were of a similar velocity and movement (read:
hittable).
The best thing about this signing for the Nationals is the
length of the contract: one year. Haren is essentially an experiment. His
pedigree is that of an above average Major League pitcher, and if he can
channel any of the skill that he exhibited in Arizona, the Nationals will have
found a very competent No. 4 starter. Dan Haren is going to be better than most of the opposing pitchers he faces as the de-facto No. 4 starter- assuming that his
back has improved (and that, as Buster Onley reported, his hip is a non issue).
But if for any reason this marriage doesn’t work out the Nationals can wipe
their hands with him rather easily and move on to the next big thing. I hear David Price is available.
What this Haren signing does, primarily, is confuse
Nationals fans as to what the offseason strategy is. It was
thought that the Nationals were shopping Michael Morse for pitching; and while
this still may be the case, it diminishes the odds that they will swing a Danny
Espinosa-Morse trade for James Shields of the Tampa Bay Rays (something that I
like, but may not be popular with Nats Nation).
Dan Haren is a question mark for the 2013 Washington
Nationals. Is the Dan Haren from 2012 going to show his face at Nats Park in
April, or will the vintage, better version reemerge and dominate the National
League? Mike Rizzo definitely knows more than me when it comes to the players
he invests millions of dollars in, but this is one particular instance where I
hope he’s right.
Time will tell.
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