The Chief Keef Watch: The Signing of Dan Haren

There’s an episode of “How I Met Your Mother” where Robin’s old boyfriend from Canada (played by the immortal James Van Der Beek) visits her for the first time since she was 16. Back then he was good looking and bound for success. When he visits Robin in New York, however, he is anything but. He has a beer gut and is balding slightly, but Robin is still very interested in him and falls back in love with him despite his unattractive exterior. It’s been a while since I’ve seen that particular episode (or the show itself), but it’s actually the first thing that popped into my head after I heard that the Nationals signed Dan Haren.   

Dan Haren is the balding James Van Der Beek and the Nationals are the desperate Robin jumping back into bed with him (the metaphor is perfect, you just have to trust it). Well, according to Ken Rosenthal, and (honestly) everyone with a smart phone and a working knowledge at the Winter Meetings.

And I hate it.

Dan Haren is a three time All-Star selection (‘07, ‘08, ’09), has 199 wins, a career 3.66 ERA, and a 7.2 SO/9 average. Pretty solid numbers. He has been a serviceable (if overrated) No. 2 or No. 3 starter over the course of his career, and if he pitches to that pedigree he will be a smart investment for the Nationals. The problem is that he is no longer that pitcher.

If we take his WARP (wins above replacement player) totals from his last five seasons we notice a pretty explicit pattern. They are declining. In his second All-Star season (2008) he posted a 5.2 WARP- a great statistical season; then the wheels slowly started to come off. He posted 4.7, 3.7, 3.0, and 0.8 his last four seasons, essentially transforming from an All-Star to a borderline starting pitcher.

Surely there must be a reason for this?

Indeed. He is 32 years old and has been hit with a relatively strong case of old-man syndrome (See: Rodriguez, Alex). In the first six years in the league (’04-’10) he was placed on the Disabled List or listed as Day-to-Day four times. He was a workhorse too, throwing (or approaching) 220 innings per season. Recently, however, he has become less reliable than my father’s old 1995 Ford Explorer (and that was a piece of junk). He had five trips to the DL or listed as day-to-day in the past two seasons alone; most notably for a chronic stiffness in his lower back that has plagued him both years.

Injuries can be the result of freak happenings, like taking a line drive off the hand or arm (or getting back spasms from a sneeze). Haren on the other hand, has been plagued with more serious injuries (granted I’m not a doctor, but I know it’s not easy to throw a ball 100 times every five days with back problems), which leads me to believe that his recent lack of production is not an aberration. There is something wrong with him physically, and who is to say that it is fixed? 

His fastball velocity over the course of his career had been rather consistent (90.5-91.5 mph) until last year when he lost a "little" pop. Last year his average velocity was 88.5 mph- slower than or equal to the three best pitchers on my high school baseball team- by far the lowest of his career. Pitchers can overcome a lack of velocity, so this dip in velocity is not necessarily a bad thing. In his three All-Star seasons Haren struck out, on average, 8.5 hitters per 9. In those three seasons the average velocity of his fastball was greater than 90.5 mph. Last year, with a two mph drop on his fastball he needed to adjust and become a different pitcher in order to have any reasonable chance at success. He didn’t.

His line drive percentage last season (the percentage of balls put in play that are line drives) spiked a full percentage point from his career average. His pitches were being hit harder than ever before and unlike years previous, they were leaving the yard. His ground ball percentage decreased by three full points, while his fly ball percentage (two points) and homerun to fly ball ratio (three points) spiked significantly. 94% of the pitches he threw were variations on a fastball (four-seam, two-seam, cutter and splitter), and with his dip in velocity- and complete disregard for his change up (0%) and curveball (6%)- his pitches were of a similar velocity and movement (read: hittable).

The best thing about this signing for the Nationals is the length of the contract: one year. Haren is essentially an experiment. His pedigree is that of an above average Major League pitcher, and if he can channel any of the skill that he exhibited in Arizona, the Nationals will have found a very competent No. 4 starter. Dan Haren is going to be better than most of the opposing pitchers he faces as the de-facto No. 4 starter- assuming that his back has improved (and that, as Buster Onley reported, his hip is a non issue). But if for any reason this marriage doesn’t work out the Nationals can wipe their hands with him rather easily and move on to the next big thing. I hear David Price is available.

What this Haren signing does, primarily, is confuse Nationals fans as to what the offseason strategy is. It was thought that the Nationals were shopping Michael Morse for pitching; and while this still may be the case, it diminishes the odds that they will swing a Danny Espinosa-Morse trade for James Shields of the Tampa Bay Rays (something that I like, but may not be popular with Nats Nation).

Dan Haren is a question mark for the 2013 Washington Nationals. Is the Dan Haren from 2012 going to show his face at Nats Park in April, or will the vintage, better version reemerge and dominate the National League? Mike Rizzo definitely knows more than me when it comes to the players he invests millions of dollars in, but this is one particular instance where I hope he’s right.

Time will tell.

Breaking Down the Denard Span Trade

If you don’t know, now you know. Denard Span of the Minnesota Twins has been traded to the Nationals for pitching prospect Alex Meyer.

What does this mean for the Nationals in 2012? 

Excellent news.

First, what we gave up. Alex Meyer, a 6-9 220 RHP, was the No. 4 prospect in the Washington Nationals farm system. Last year he gave an indication of his future prowess: over two levels Meyer won 10 games, posted a 2.86 ERA, struck out 139 hitters, and opposing batters hit a measly .211 against him.

Meyer is scouts dream, and the kind of prospect that GM’s drool over. For one, he is 6-9. Clark Kellogg would probably call him “gracile,” or some other lengthy SAT word that probably doesn't exist. In the eyes of scouts and others who evaluate talent, height is a critical characteristic for a pitcher. The thinking is that they are more durable than a similarly talented pitcher who is 6-1 or shorter. Does that actually hold true? Not really. Durability and velocity generated is often independent of height (for every Randy Johnson, there is a Pedro Martinez), and if we look at the height of the average Hall of Fame pitcher we find that it is only 6-1. So while height does matter in some things (like if you want to date pretty girls) it's not the be all end all of a pitching career. 

Tall pitchers actually face challenges that their shorter brethren don’t. It’s actually harder for them to repeat their delivery on a consistent basis (with all those moving parts and whatnot), which can result in a lack of control and having to trade velocity for accuracy.

Meyer’s fastball tops around 98 MPH, and scouts grade his high 80's slider as something that can eventually become an above average pitch. But right now he is raw. He is a two-pitch pitcher who throws a slowly improving change up, however, he doesn’t figure to crack a Major League rotation anytime before 2014 at the earliest. Denard Span is going to make an impact in April.  

I’ve never personally witnessed Meyer pitch, but scouts and other people who deal with advanced metrics suggest that his ceiling is somewhere as a No. 2 or No. 3 pitcher, with a very good chance he ends up as a back of the bullpen guy. Obviously, a lot has to go right for him to get level. With Span we already know he is a starting caliber Center Fielder.

But even if Meyer reaches his ceiling, and truthfully it’s two early to tell, the Nationals just made an excellent trade.

The Nationals plan this offseason was three-fold: get a Center Fielder, get a Pitcher, and figure out what to do with Laroche. Trading for Denard Span checks Outfielder off of Mike Rizzo’s Christmas List and actually saves the Nationals a pretty significant sum of money. B.J. Upton just signed a 5 year/ $75 Million dollar contract with the Braves (starting at 12.45M in 2013 and climbing by 1M a year until 2017), a deal the Nationals would have likely offered him as well. Michael Bourn, the other top tier Free Agent Center Fielder on the market, is going to likely end up being even more expensive than that. The Nationals control Span’s rights for 3 years and owe him 4.75M in ’13, 6.5M in ’14, and have a 9M team option for ’15. That's peanuts for the talent he brings.

Denard Span has been a more valuable player over the course of his career than both B.J. Upton and Michael Bourn. His average WAR per season is 3.3, while B.J. Upton’s 1.7 and Michael Bourn’s 2.7 leave one wondering how they fetched such expensive pay days.

Span, a career .284/.357/.389 hitter, will fit in very nicely with the Nationals. Not only does he get on base and avoid striking out, he is actually one of the game’s better defensive outfielders. With him in the fold for 2013 the Nationals are set to move Bryce Harper to Left Field- minimizing his body from the demands of Center Field- and move Morse…somewhere.

Like I’ve said before, this offseason for the Nationals will come down to Adam Laroche. He wants three years. Rizzo is only willing to give him two. Mike Rizzo’s reluctance to give Laroche tells us something about his future plan. In two years Anthony Rendon, the Nationals Super-Top-Prospect, will be ready to contribute full time (though, probably sooner). Ryan Zimmerman’s shoulder may not hold up much longer at Third Base and he could be flipped across the diamond and experience a very different view of Nationals Park.

The Nationals could chose to let Laroche walk, and move Morse to First Base full time and take all the money they saved and throw it at a Pitcher. Greinke isn’t a realistic option, given his asking price and a slew of other variables, but guys like Kyle Loshe and Ryan Dempster are.

Morse only has one year left on his contract before he will hit the market, which makes his trade value as high as it’s ever going to be (unless he comes out like gangbusters in 2013). The Nationals could trade him for a Dempster level pitcher (or prospects), sign Laroche to a two-year deal with a team option for a third, and then sit tight for the rest of the offseason. Right now we don't know. We are all waiting on Laroche, hopefully he makes his decision soon.

But for now let’s praise Rizzo that we didn’t sign B.J. Upton. Bossman Junior? More like Bossman Junior Varsity. (#5MoreYears)

The Case for Adam Laroche

Oscar Gamble once told people: "They don't think it be like it is, but it do." Then the Internet found out and now a google search of that phrase turns up more than 4 billion results in less than half a second. 

I am thinking about Oscar Gamble right now, but not for reasons that can be artistically woven into two thousand words about Adam Laroche. I think I am thinking about Gamble because I stole a pizza from a friend's (but not a friend I value enough not to not steal his pizza) refrigerator right before writing this. I left the kid $7 because I felt bad about stealing an entire Dominoes pizza at three in the morning, though I would much rather have that $7. I don't know whether to call that irony or karma, but either way I lost. 

It's a pepperoni, bacon, and Italian sausage pizza. The first bite tastes a lot like one would expect a cold pizza to taste at three in the morning on a Saturday night: fantastic. (editors note: This pizza was gross)

That has nothing to do with Adam Laroche.

This does:

Okay, so this was 11 days ago.

And this was 9 days ago.

Adam Laroche is a lot like Hansel from Zoolander: he's so hot right now. People want him. We now know that the Texas Rangers and Boston Red Sox have thrown their hats in the ring for Laroche, the best First Baseman in the Free Agent market.

There is a dearth of quality First Basemen in Major League Baseball right now. It's actually pretty ugly. Adam Laroche put up the 4th best WAR of any eligible First Baseman last season, which is incredible when you consider the number of people who didn't consider him a Top 10 First Baseman last year (I'm guilty of this), and probably still wouldn't even after his Gold Glove and Silver Slugger winning 2012 season.

The list of the incredulous includes one Red Sox official who Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports quotes as saying, "Like him, Don't love him." If you remember, Laroche played 6 games with the Red Sox in 2009 before he was traded for Casey Kotchman. It was pretty clear they didn't love him then either. 

For the Rangers, while by no means a foregone conclusion, the chances of Josh Hamilton playing for the Rangers next season are slim. His time in Texas did not end with a bang, nor did it end with a whimper, but with thousands of Rangers fans booing him to no end. (The video of which has apparently vanished from existence. Not unlike the 18 1/2 minutes of the Nixon Tapes. Coincidence?) If the Rangers do indeed cut ties with Hamilton it leaves the Rangers with a pretty big gap in Centerfield that no one on their current roster can fill. They do have some young guys who could play Centerfield (and probably aren't ready), but the Rangers would be better suited to go after Michael Bourn or B.J. Upton in Free Agency to try and recoup some of Hamilton's lost production. I don't think the Rangers go after Laroche, considering they already have three First Basemen on their roster (none of which any other team would want to trade for), when they are already going to overpay for an Outfielder and a Pitcher (I'm obviously assuming this, but after the way their season ended it's a good bet). They are not going to overpay for Laroche too because it just doesn't make sense, they don't need him that much.

Assuming that the Baltimore Orioles learn how to share, the Nationals are in line to make some serious TV money, presumedly tripling the paltry $29 million they made in 2012. But even without this TV money the Nationals aren't hurting financially. Which is important. Considering his age and history of being solid-but-not-this-good, Laroche is likely to command a 3 year deal somewhere in the ballpark of $13-15 million per. The class of Free Agent First Basemen this offseason begins and ends with Adam Laroche, so the Nationals either overpay slightly to bring him back, or they let him walk. There are four ways this situation plays out. In no particular order:

Plan A: Let Laroche walk and plug Michael Morse into First Base. This move severely down grades the Nationals infield defense, while at the same time keeping the offensive production relatively consistent. The Nats would then have to open the pocket book further to seduce a Michael Bourn or other top tier Outfielder to come to D.C. The problem with this is that Bourn (Agent: Scott Boras) knows that every team wants what he has to offer (speed, a totally overrated tool) and will command a long term contract north of $100 million. Quick aside: after this season Stephen Strasburg's contract expires and the Nationals are likely to extend him a contract in the $70/80/90 million range. Why not spend less on Laroche, not totally cripple the Infield defense, sign a better Pitcher (Kyle Loshe) instead of a cheaper one for financial reasons (Ryan Dempster), and then re-up with Strasburg at some point during the season?

Plan B: Let Laroche walk, move Tyler Moore to First Base and overpay for Zack Greinke to the tune of $100 million plus. This way the Nationals can keep Morse in Left Field- where he doesn't belong but where The Nationals are forced to play him- while still adding the Pitcher they need. The problem here is that while Tyler Moore played well in limited action last season, his production over the course of a 162 season is unknown. Trading offense for pitching worked for the 2009 San Francisco Giants (26th in the league in runs) who won the World Series, but as a whole teams that can't score runs don't win games. Of 2012 playoff teams only the Atlanta Braves and Cincinnati Reds fell outside the top 15 in runs scored. The Nationals offense last year was strong, but starting Moore would be a significant downgrade. His triple slash line last season, .263/ .327/ .513/ 156 At Bats, isn't terrible for a spot starter/ pinch hitter. Anyone who watched the Nationals will recognize that he was a solid contributer off the bench. Until he fell apart over the last month of the season, as he hit just .153 in September. Maybe the rigors of a 162 games season caught up to him and he fatigued? or maybe the league figured him out?The reasons for this lack of production are irrelevant, the Nationals make this move if they think that Moore is better than just a solid bench player, but (small sample size noted) 156 At Bats later it doesn't look like he is.

The Zack Greinke move, while interesting, also does not make a ton of sense. He was sporadic for much of last season, posting monthly ERA's of: 3.94, 3.06, 1.70, 5.46, 5.22, and 2.11. His crazy outlier of a 2009 season (2.16 ERA and Cy Young) heavily skews his already mediocre career ERA of 3.77. He is a good pitcher- he strikes out about 8 batters per 9 innings and walks slightly less than a third of them- but he gives up a relatively pedestrian 8.9 hits per 9 as well as oodles and oodles of runs. He has 44 career starts in which he has given up 5 or more runs, representing about 20% of his career starts. Oh he has spent most of his career pitching in the American League that's the reason he gives up so many runs? It's not really like the AL Central is a powerhouse, though it is certainly more potent than the anemic NL Central that ranked three offenses in the bottom 10 of the league in 2011. The same year Greinke posted a 3.83 ERA with the Milwaukee Brewers. Is he talented? Yes, absolutely. He plays professional baseball and I am eating disgusting pizza on a Saturday night. All I am saying is that the Nationals shouldn't pay Zack Greinke the opening weekend of a Tom Cruise movie when the best word to describe his pitching ability is "inconsistent." Doesn't this seem crazy? 

Plan C: Let Laroche walk and call up Anthony Rendon, our top Minor League prospect, to play Third Base and move Ryan Zimmerman to First. This way The Nationals keep Morse, and probably extend his contract at some point during the season (were about to get to this, be patient), while getting younger with one of the best prospects in all of baseball. While this may not be the most likely outcome of Laroche's leaving this offseason, it is, or at the very least should be, the Nationals plan for the future. As much fun as it has been watching Zimmerman's inability to throw the ball to First without a running start, it's pretty clear that his shoulder issues are severe (at this point anonymous people on the Nats message boards are comparing him to Rick Ankiel, so that's not good). Rendon, however, is not ready to contribute at the Major League level. Over four levels last year Rendon hit .233 with 6 home runs and 12 RBI. In AA, where he spent most of his season, he hit .162 in 68 At Bats. Obviously this is a small sample size and chances are just as good that he will perform to his pedigree in 2013, but it likely will happen in the Minors. See you in June July August September, Rendon. 

Plan D: Pay Laroche whatever he wants and then trade Michael Morse for a pitcher. Morse is in his contract year and the Nationals are currently paying him a little over $7 million on the 2 year $10.5 million dollar deal he signed after the 2010 season. 2011 and 2012 were productive seasons for "The Beast," injury issues aside, and his trade stock has never been higher, nor will it ever be again. One more productive season close to his 2010 production (.303/.360/.550, 31 home runs, 95 RBI) and he is going to be in line for a fine pay day by some lucky team. It's just not going to be the Nationals. He is an American League player forced to play defense in the National League, and has caused all kinds of pains for the Nationals with his sloth-like agility. He is going to turn 31 during the season- three years younger than Laroche- but has not shown the consistency in the MLB for the Nationals to go out of their way to resign him to the contract he will likely want (Laroche-like). His value on the open market far outweighs his value to the Nationals. Sure, he is quirky and Nationals fans will miss him, but it's not like they are going to be sitting on the couch eating a carton of ice cream and start to mist up when we remember that invisible bat grand slam or all those low-fives. They will probably just remember this.

It just makes too much sense for the Nationals to do this. They need a Pitcher and an Outfielder (either Laroche or Morse is going to be gone anyway) and Morse can get them the quality of arm, 3rd/4th/5th starter, that they want. Instead of overpaying for Kyle Loshe, the Nationals can take that money and get the Laroche deal done. Then they can go after Bourn, or whoever, and feel confident in their chances in 2013.

We will know more in the coming weeks. The winter meetings are starting soon and players from all over the league are going to be moved. Nationals fans can take solace in the fact that Mike Rizzo is one of the more competent General Managers in baseball (and in Chocolate City- I'm looking at you Bruce Allen) and will make the right decisions. For the Nationals it's trading Morse and resigning Laroche. For me it's putting this pizza away before I eat the whole thing. 

They don't think it be like it is, but it do. 

I think I get it now.