Lessons Learned: WIzards/ Celtics 11/7

Grab your $3,500 dollar Nike's and lets go back in time.

7:22 3rd Quarter: Rajon Rondo makes a bad pass, Emeka Okafor snags it and whips it to Trevor Ariza. Fast Break.

7:20: Ariza has the ball and is rocketing towards the basket with Bradley Beal, with only Kevin Garnett standing in the way.

D'oh!

7:18: Beal receives the pass and goes up for a contested layup over Garnett who hockey-checks the airborne Beal. Beal with one hand, while floating through the air in slow motion it seems, throws the ball off glass and into the basket. The whistle blows.

AND 1 for Bradley Beal.

The Wizards lead by 4 points.

Plays like this happen more than once during a basketball game so, realistically, nothing should have been remarkable about this play other than the fact that, in KG's mind, this clearly should not have been called a foul (he likes to complain about all the calls made against him).

Except it was remarkable. Why? This free throw attempted by Beal was the first for the Wizards on the night, and it came with 7 minutes left in the 3rd Quarter.

Is that bad?

Well, like my dad always says, it aint good. And it kind of encapsulates what the Wizards are missing in a conveniently short block of text: they have no playmakers. Bradley Beal does not really penetrate as much as he takes jump shots. A.J. Price is a league average player, if that, and while he may be good for a made three pointer or two he also forces countless jumpers, many of which kill possessions before they get a chance to start. (I initially wrote a paragraph bashing A.J. Price but ultimately felt like it was too much... maybe in another post?). The Wizards have Jordan Crawford, but he is harder to figure out Florida's election results, which, you know, is pretty difficult.

A.J. Price? Not impressed

Both Price and Crawford think they are playmakers but statistics and common sense beg to differ. The Wizards are so devoid of a playmaker that Martell Webster decided to break down the Celtics defense himself last night with 40 seconds left in the game, ultimately turning the ball over. I actually like Webster's game, but things that don't involve shooting are not really a part of it. Trevor Ariza, from what he has shown at this point in the season- and really since he stopped playing with Kobe- is not a starting Small Forward. He really hasn't been relevant since he left the Lakers after the 2009 season, as evidenced by the fact that his Wikipedia picture is him with the Lakers, and needs to have his minutes reduced. He plays good defense, sometimes. He also can't play offense. Cent for cent he might be the most overrated player in the NBA, and yet he starts for the 2012-2013 Washington Wizards.

"But," you say, "Martell Webster and Chris Singleton aren't starting Small Forwards either!" loud and obnoxiously and probably during some point in the last paragraph. No, they're definitely not. But that is just the nature of the Wizards this season. None of them is a great option, but- if I can channel my inner Tim McCarver- it's about finding the one who is the least bad. That's Webster. Singleton remains a viable option off the bench for his energy and defensive play, but he is never going to be a guy who plays more than 25 minutes a night. He might have a night like this one against Boston where he scores in double figures with a high shooting percentage with some rebounds, assists, steals and a dunk that makes Kevin Garnett look like a little boy, but not often.

Other than realizing that Trevor Ariza, in two words, isn't good, last night we saw that emergence of Kevin Seraphin. Last night marked the 18th straight game Seraphin scored in double figures, while also pulling down 9 boards. This was soured somewhat by his 6 turnovers and 5 personal fouls, which led to his Arizian plus/minus of -7. He is not a guy who is going to set the world on fire with his defense, but from him the Wizards are mostly looking for offense. He is on the court to score, and he can put it in the basket in a variety of ways. Obviously I am jumping the gun here, but he has the potential to be a more powerful Chris Bosh. He can post you up and score with either hand; he can make the midrange jumper; he can beat you with his quickness; and he can even piss you off until you just want to hit him- à la Kevin Garnett's Technical Foul last night. He doesn't need to light to world on fire on both ends of the floor, he just needs to continue to produce as he has and he becomes one of the five quality Wizards starters with John Wall (out indefinitely), Nenê (out indefinitely), Okafor (not so far), and Bradley Beal (maybe hopefully).

Speaking of Beal, his last matchup against this Celtics team (November 3rd) was a tough one. It was the kind of performance expected from a rookie against a veteran, physical, defensive minded team. Courtney Lee may never come close to the 55 points I scored with him in NCAA 2k7 versus Syracuse, but he plays the caliber defense that made the Celtics want to bring him in to guard Dwyane Wade. Last night Beal played well, part of which is no doubt due to Jason Terry guarding him all night (and actually having to play defense), but most of can be traced back to Beal himself. He was more confident last night than he has been with the Wizards, taking 15 shots, second to Seraphin with 19. He shot a rather pedestrian 40% overall but the fact that he is taking shots and acting like he is one of the Wizards best options, which he became the second he was drafted, is a good sign. He is going to have some hard times this season, probably until John Wall comes back and alleviates the production load for everyone, but the Wizards are going to keep him down in the deep end of the pool until he can learn how to swim.

The Wizards played well enough to win last night for about 3 1/2 Quarters. Then the Celtics turned up the defense pressure, and we came to realize just how much we miss John Wall- as if we didn't know already. The Wizards turned the ball over, they committed some bad fouls, and the Celtics escaped in Overtime. The Wizards played the Eastern Conference's likely No. 2 seed hard twice, coming close to winning both games, which is definitely a positive. But we saw just how flawed our guys are on both ends of the court, and how far away they are from relevancy.

This is the NBA: if you can't compete you might as well tank. And after this 0-3 start we clearly are not contenders. Assuming we stay at the same level, or even improve slightly, we are well on our way to a lottery pick. If we get the right piece we become a playoff team, if we get the wrong piece we fall into a circle of fan hell inhabited only by the Bobcats- where lottery picks go to die. So for now while we wait for our team to improve we can take solace in that we are not, in fact, the Bobcats.

Washington Nationals Shopping List: Offseason 2013

Hey Nationals Fans, this is what is called the Offseason. You know it because the Redskins do it too. It's a period between when the last game is played in one year and the first game is played in the next year. Baseball does it too, you just haven't noticed because normally you haven't cared. You remember Game 5 and part of you gets sick every time you hear the name Daniel Descalso even if you can't quite remember who that is. But just like with Biggie there is "Life After Death" and it is the offseason. This offseason is going to be exciting because the Nationals are contenders and what they do will have significant impacts on the 2013 season. So, loyal reader, put down that carton of Ben & Jerry's that you have been hate eating every night since the middle of October and pay attention. Things are going to change, and you are going to care. It's going to be like when the Redskins drafted RGIII but like 30x less exciting.

In 2012 the Washington Nationals won the National League East and were the first Chocolate City baseball franchise to make the playoffs since 1933. They did this primarily through pitching, fielding, and timely hitting. Something that the San Francisco Giants perfected in October and, along with shrewd coaching, became the main factors that resulted in them holding up the Commissioners trophy through a confetti storm of biblical proportions.

The Nationals have three glaring question marks in terms of personnel decisions this offseason. Adam Laroche, Edwin Jackson, and Sean Burnett are all free agents this offseason and despite the contribution of each to the Nats playoff push it is conceivable that none will return in 2013.

Sean Burnett has been very effective in his four years with the Nationals as a tough lefty-lefty match-up and an unhittable 7th inning guy this past season. With the recent loss of Michael Gonzalez the Nats are well served to bring Burnett and his 2.38 ERA and 9.1 K's per 9 back to sure up the back end of the bullpen. One of the Nationals keys this offseason is to improve a bullpen that was a strength for much of the season- at least before Tyler Clippard went from "Clip and Save" to "Clipboard." Ryan Madson, formerly of the Reds, is a free agent after missing the entire 2012 season rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. If the Nats decided to replace Gonzalez with him he would add another powerful arm and strikeout pitcher (career 7.8 K's per 9) to one of the best bullpens in baseball. 

The case with Edwin Jackson is the easiest. He will not be returning to the Nats next season. As the teams 5th starter he posted solid numbers, throwing almost 190 innings to go along with 10 wins and a 4.03 ERA. But he was relatively ineffective down the stretch run of the season and had zero business coming into Game 5 of the Cardinals series when he was hit like a pinata in Game 3. He was a very serviceable 5th option for the Nats this season, which is a very nice way of saying that he won't be getting a long-term contract from anybody. The Edwin Jackson: Hired Gun story continues. I say he heads up to Toronto to get knocked around by the Yankees, Sox and O's. The Nationals are going to go after another back of the rotation starter this offseason, and the market has some pretty solid options.

The Adam Laroche question is a little more difficult. We offered him a $13.3 million dollar qualifying offer for one year, something he will likely reject (he has until November 9th) in favor of a long-term contract with the Nationals. Based on what he has said he wants to come back to the Nationals, and the Nationals want him back. He hit .271 with 33 home runs and 100 RBI to go along with a Gold Glove and  was, over the course of the season, undoubtably the Nationals best hitter and was a huge factor in 98 wins and a division crown.

He is going to want a 4 year contract at least, probably somewhere in the $40-60 million dollar price range. Resigning him would keep Bryce in Center, and Morse in Left - though he is clearly a DH forced to wear a glove because he plays in the National League. Might the Nats be better served to let Laroche go, move Morse to First where is limited range is not a serious concern (playing First Base is not that difficult to begin with), and go after an outfielder to play either Center or Left while Bryce plays the other?

For fun let's assume that the Nationals pass on signing Laroche and go after an outfielder and a 5th starter to replace Edwin Jackson. Who are some of the players that might make a difference to whether or not 1500 South Captiol Street sees more playoff baseball next year?

Outfielders first:

Josh Hamilton: 0% chance. There are only a few teams who are going to take a shot with him and it will not be the Nats. Too much baggage for Mike Rizzo to shell out a lengthy and expensive contract. The Nationals have quite a bit of money from the new TV contract but promise to be shrewd with this cash, not just burning this money for the thrill of it. Hamilton to the Brewers or Phillies. This contract is going to be big, and the team that gives it to him will be disappointed.

Michael Bourn: Somewhat likely if Laroche leaves (which is to say like 25% IF). He would get $80-100 million long-term and hit lead off. However, speed is overrated in baseball these days and since Bourn doesn't hit for power or drive in runs this is essentially a $100 million dollar contract for someone who can catch flyballs, cutoff balls in the gap, hit .272, and steal bases(?). Seems a little high for someone who isn't going to decide a lot of games unless he scores a run one someone else's hit. Kinda unlike our current leadoff hitter.

Nick Swisher: I don't this is a reality but it's pretty interesting to think about this kind of fit. He brings a fun-loving personality, has playoff experience, would not end up costing all that much, and is a powerful left handed bat that could easily offset the loss of Laroche. But, if you are going to bring in someone so similar to Laroche why not just keep Laroche? Yeah, sorry Swish. I hear there is a lot to do in Cleveland.

B.J. Upton: This seems likely, if not certain, if the Nats part with Laroche. I already have visions of me cursing at the TV while he strikes out 175 times and does the opposite of hustle. I'm already mad. This fantasy sucks. Hopefully the Phillies sign him.

Torii Hunter: A cheap but experienced seat warmer until Brian Goodwin can contribute? Maybe.

Shin Soo Choo/ Jacoby Ellsbury: Both would have to be traded, and likely for pitching. Ellsbury is a free agent after the 2013 season if the Nats want to make a run for him then. Choo isn't really even worth looking at for the price that the Indians would likely want.  

Pitchers:

Zach Grenkie: The Nationals have the money to do this, should they choose to. They won't. Again like Hamilton there are just too many character issues here. He pitched well after being traded to LAA last year, proving that he could still pitch in the American League. Scouts took notice so the AL is where he will likely stay. Expect a big contract from the Angels or the Rangers as they battle to dethrone the A's as champions of the West. 

Kyle Loshe: He turned 34 one month ago. His last two seasons have been statistical outliers from the rest of his relatively mediocre career where his 4.45 ERA dwarfs the 2.86 and 3.39 he put up in '12 and '11. He is a league average pitcher at best (go ahead and look for yourself) who, with Scott Boras as his agent, is going to ask to be paid like a ace or big-time No. 2. I'm not buying this sudden career transcendence as anything other than a byproduct of the Cardinals ability to take league average pitchers and make them good, and sometimes great. The Nationals should take this money that they don't spend on Loshe and bring in more concerts to Nationals Park. I mean I like The Wallflowers and all but let's bring in some bands that might actually make it worth my while to listen to live free music instead of just pulling up YouTube on my iPhone. No one wants to listen to Big & Rich, not even their parents.

Dan Haren: Clearly the Angels are trying to trade him. The National League is a good fit for him and his skill set (very hittable pitches) because the league lacks powerful offenses. That's the best reason I could think of to justify this move so... let's just move on.

Anibal Sanchez: This would be interesting. I think he stays with the Tigers; they have too much money and are not about to watch their pitching strength up and leave. He would be a good signing for the Nats, just pretty unlikely.

Ryan Dempster: Player A: 10-14 W-L, 4.80 ERA, .271 BAA, 1.448 WHIP, 9.4 H/9, WAR .9
                           Player B: 10-10 W-L, 4.08 ERA, .253 BAA, 1.325 WHIP, 8.9 H/9, WAR 1
                           Player C: 9-10 W-L, 4.41 ERA, .253 BAA, 1.450 WHIP, 8.9 H/9, WAR 1.3
                           Player D: 11-11 W-L, 4.61 ERA, .268 BAA, 1.451 WHIP, 9.4 H/9, WAR 1.3 

          

One of these is the career 162 (33 start) avg of Ryan Dempster. Does it really matter which one he is? (He's not B). He did pitch well last year with the Cubs before having all chances at getting a large contract this offseason destroyed in the plains of west Texas. He would be cheap, and given his successes last year the upside here is pretty good. Of these pitchers this is the strongest move that the Nationals can make.

Scott Baker: He missed 2012 with Tommy John and the Twins declined his 2013 option as a result. He would be available to pitch from day one and puts up numbers that are best described as E- Jaxian. This is sort of a last option kind of deal. Everyone else in the bar went home with someone else and you are just staring down someone you really don't want but will take anyway because some is better than none. Scott Baker is last call.

At this point all we can do is wait and see what Laroche wants, and then pray that we don't end up with B.J. Upton. No one should have to suffer like that. So yeah Nationals fans, this is it. Get ready to Wang Chung for the next 4 1/2 months. 

Redskins-Panthers Preview: Or The Case Against Cam Newton

I knew exactly how I was going to start this article. I was going to compare Cam Newton to someone other than RGIII. I was going to show Tebow's stats and how similar they were to Newton's. I was going to say that Newton is a lot like Homeland’s Carrie Mathison in that they are both extremely talented in their line of work but their craziness hinders much of this natural ability. Each even has their own way of coping with their fatal flaw: Carrie cries (like all the time), and Cam likes to self name verb with the best of them. It’s going to be a thing, you have to trust it.

Give 'em Hell, Mike

But nothing felt right. I wanted to avoid comparing him to RGIII because, well, everyone is already doing that. Obviously the comparisons are there: they are both high draft selections, they are both black, and they are both mobile quarterbacks, but really that is where the comparisons should end because they both play different styles of football.

Griffin is a leader, someone who says all the right things at his press conferences and keeps a very even demeanor. He is a dual-threat quarterback in every sense of the term, but a thrower first- even with the Vick-like ability to do this. He is taller than Vick, but is by no means physically imposing, necessitating an avoidance of hard hits. He has "plus" arm strength, but also has shown the ability to lead the league in completion percentage (that is, if his receivers learn to catch the ball). After eight games RGIII looks like the real deal, worthy of the draft picks the Redskins mortgaged to get him from the Rams. The problem is that after eight games last year we were saying the same things about Cam Newton. And now, to be blunt, we're not.

This is what we are saying: Cam Newton is a punk. He is built like Tim Tebow and can probably bench press one and a half Robert Griffin's, but he can't complete two passes in a row. He made the Pro Bowl last season but has played... poorly this season. If the Panthers continue to lose, especially in a similar fashion, his press conferences after games will become required viewing. And not because he gives a great interview. Newton is a freak athlete but his quarterbacking skills are about as raw as a plate of tuna tartare- but nowhere near as delicious. He has a strong arm, but ranks 28th among quarterbacks in completion percentage; he has only thrown 5 touchdown passes on the season- slightly better than Ryan Tannehill (4) and John Skelton (1)- while also throwing 8 picks. To say that he has not played at the elite level of a Pro Bowl quarterback is an understatement. Mike Vick is outplaying him, and Vick is about to lose his job.

To make matters worse for himself, Cam Newton sulks. And it has become so frequent that he is challenging the Internet to create a new meme to commemorate his boyish charm immaturity, and they have accepted. You see, the Internet is a magical place where like-minded Panthers fans can come together and voice their collective displeasure at their hometown team- or at least the 8 or 9 people who care about football and aren't just trying to remember the name of the Plumlee who goes to Duke (Mason is a senior, but Marshall is only a freshman. Four more years! Four more years!). Earlier this season the Internet decided that Robert Griffin was worthy of having a thing, but, unlike Newton, for positive reasons. See, look it's official.

It's funny because it's (probably) true

RGIII is a positive influence on his team; he plays hard, but smart; he actually acts as the leader of his offense instead of just being its best player, and he does and says all the right things. He understands that being a high draft pick does not entitle him to anything, in fact, it necessitates hard work. From what we have seen of Cam Newton, he doesn't appear to understand these things. This season he has played to the level of a below-average NFL quarterback and led his Panthers team to one win through seven games. His Panthers find ways to lose games (see: Bears, Chicago) and instead of accepting that HIS TEAM did not play well enough to win, he points fingers at teammates. It seems reasonable enough that we can point to the "Pay for Play" scandal that marred his season at Auburn and say that he is not mature enough to be a dependable leader in the NFL. But since no one actually knows what is going on in Cam Newton's head other than Cam Newton, all this speculation is, well, speculation. The facts are that Cam Newton has not improved his quarterback play from last year to this year. His legs seem to be working fine- he has 310 yards, 6.1 yards per carry- but he is nowhere near the pace of his somewhat unsustainable 14 rushing TD's last year and has fumbled thrice, one more than all of last year. His accuracy is down, and his 8 INT's put him in the bottom quarter of the league, but the statistic that tells the most about his struggles this season has been QBR. Sidebar: QBR, if you don't know it or understand it, is the greatest metric to measure quarterback performance other than wins (in my opinion). Out of 34 who qualify, Cam Newton ranks 30th in the league. In comparison last year, in his Pro Bowl season, his QBR ranked 17th. This is a metric that would suggest that Cam Newton is nothing better than a league average quarterback unless he can run for 700 yards and 14 TD's to compensate. In a league that has become increasingly pass heavy, that fact that Cam Newton struggles to remain average seems like a significant problem.

If all this Cam Newton trashing seems excessive, it's because it is. Suffice it to say that Robert Griffin III and Cam Newton are different players, something the country will come to realize Sunday afternoon.

On to the game. I am inclined to say that all the Redskins need to do is show up and the Panthers will find a way to lose this game themselves, but it feels as though more should probably be said. The Redskins have a porous defense this year, allowing the 5th most points, and the most passing yards touchdowns. We are going to have to start calling this unit "The Ozone Layer" they are so full of holes. But, like the ozone, it's not all bad. They are significantly better against the run where they rank 21st in rush yards allowed. On the other hand, the Panthers defense is middling. They rank near the middle of the league in every relevant defensive category, possibly foreshadowing a high scoring, offense driven game. Cam Newton is going to have to show up and beat the Redskins through the air for the Panthers to have a chance in this game, which means, for us Redskins fans, we like our chances.

For the Redskins its all about the defense. Can they finish a game? The team has been in position to win games but has fallen short on multiple occasions. That Giants game is still not something we speak about. The injury bug has hit this unit- Brian Orakpo, Adam Carriker- and they have certainly played to the level of their personnel, but if ever there was a game where they can take advantage of an opposing offense this is it. The Panthers are reeling and Cam Newton is struggling, but the team is more talented than their 1-6 record suggests. Look for them to be able to score some points. Ultimately though, RGIII is going to have a monster day. After playing the Steelers last week, the Panthers defense is going to look like a Big East team and the Redskins are going to fly around the field. Plus, its the Panthers. You know that Cam Newton's team is going to implode and he is going to point fingers at anybody but himself. And, most importantly, Newtoning is going to become a thing. You just have to trust it.

WASHINGTON (-3.5) over Carolina
Washington 31 Carolina 17