Redskins-Cowboys Preview

I thought about writing a Redskins-Eagles recap. It wouldn't have been in good taste so I decided to shelve it. The pen is mightier than the sword, you know? I was going to compare the Eagles Offensive Line to the Convicts' in "The Longest Yard" (You Tube doesn't have the clip, but it's the part near the end when Adam Sandler's teammates realize that he is throwing the game and refuse to block for him), but I felt like too many people were already going to criticize the Eagles and I didn't want to be one of those people. I want to take the high road. I feel kind of bad for them. The Eagles are that team- and there is one every season- whose players quit on its coach before ultimately quitting on each other. Bets going into the season would have picked the players on the Kansas City Chiefs to quit on Romeo Crennel, the Eagles players have stepped their game up (or down) to a whole new level. I think when your fans make a video like this, it really speaks to how much of a dissent there is against Andy Reid in Philadelphia.

So, yeah, the Redskins dominated a rookie Quarterback last week and won handedly. Whatever. The Redskins play the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday. That's really the only game that matters.

Dallas is 5-5 on the season, and in the midst of the NFC playoff race. A win for the Redskins would be sweet because not only would it hurt the Cowboys chances of making the Playoffs, it would significantly bolster the Redskins'. As it stands right now the 'Skins are two games out of the division lead and the New York Giants are reeling. They had lost two games in a row before a much needed bye week last week, and now they must deal with the (red hot) Green Bay Packers on Sunday Night Football. Tom Coughlin is 13-21 in November and Eli Manning has zero touchdown passes and four interceptions in his last three games so the Giants lead in the division may not be as strong as many think. If the Redskins win this game, and then next week against the Giants on Monday Night Football, it puts them in a very favorable position in the division. Will it happen? Well, they definitely need to beat the Cowboys first.

The Redskins just snapped their three game losing streak by taking the Eagles behind a woodshed and beating them to the tune of 31-6, while the Cowboys backed into a win against the Cleveland Browns in an overtime game that they almost certainly should have lost. So though one may consider the Cowboys "hot," they are only hot inasmuch as winning two in a row against Eagles and Browns makes one hot, which is to say that the Cowboys aren't very hot. The Cowboys record against Playoff teams this year is 1-5, with their only win coming in the first game of the season against the Giants. Otherwise they have beaten three of the five worst teams (Panthers, Eagles, Browns) and squeaked one out against a pre-Muscle Hamster Buccaneers. There is something to be said about beating the teams you are supposed to beat, but at some point in order to prove they are a Playoff team they will need to actually beat a Playoff team.

Playing Thursday games presents a series of challenges to NFL teams. For one, it's a short week and teams do not have a lot of time to prepare for each other. But if this is a disadvantage for one, it's also a disadvantage for the other. More significant are the impacts on player safety and injuries that these short weeks have on the players. They are fatigued, and when they are fatigued they play sloppy; when they play sloppy their technique suffers; when their technique suffers players get hurt. Thursday afternoon Thanksgiving games have been a tradition for many years now, and the players really enjoy them (Darren Woodson said as much this morning on Sportscenter), but Thursday night games every week... NFL games are brutal contests where our country's strongest and most athletic men literally clobber each other for money. Shortening the time in-between games makes injuries that much more likely and, to some extent, expected.

Injuries will always be a factor in NFL games, but on Thursdays these issues tend to compound and result in lack luster games that become battles of attrition. This short week will likely affect the Redskins more than the Cowboys because of pre-existing injury issues. Brandon Meriweather, who had missed the first nine games of the season with a left knee injury, hurt his right knee in the third quarter of the Eagles game. He is likely to play on Thursday but may not be 100%. London Fletcher is more of an issue with his ankle injury and is a game time decision (courtesy of the Washington Post). If these two don't play the Redskins have little chance of stopping the Cowboys offense. Or, I should say, have less of a chance.

The Cowboys rank 7th in the NFL in passing yards per game, while the Redskins give up the 4th most passing yards. If Meriweather doesn't play it could be a long day for the 'Skins secondary, especially if Dez Bryant shows up. Dez Bryant has been a beast for most of the season (57 rec, 735 yards, 4 TD's) but has steppe it up of late, averaging 89 yards over the past four contests and scoring 2 TD's. The Cowboys are going to throw the ball a ton this game, and if DeAngelo Hall plays the way he usually plays (poorly), combined with the rest of this weak secondary the Redskins simply aren't going to win.

The key to this game for either team is going to be turnovers. Tony Romo has thrown 13 interceptions on the season, the third worst in the NFL (only the Chiefs and Philip Rivers have thrown more), and the Cowboys as a team have a -9 turnover differential. The Redskins on the other hand have a differential of +10, one of the best in the NFL. This is due in large part to RG3 taking care of the ball uncharacteristically well for a rookie, having only thrown 3 interceptions on the season.

For the Redskins the game comes down to two things: first, can they pressure Tony Romo? If they can they will hurry his throws and force him into mistakes (remember, the only thing worse than a hurried Tony Romo is a Playoff Tony Romo). And second, Robert Griffin III needs to manage the game effectively. Last week against the Eagles RG3 posted a perfect Passer Rating of 153.8, just the second rookie ever to do so. He threw for 200 yards and 4 touchdowns, and added 84 yards on the ground. If he can come close to duplicating either of these statistics, the 'Skins can cut down and force a few turnovers, and the 'Skins can cut down on their penalty woes (13 for 80 yards), they stand a decent chance of beating the Cowboys and keeping their slim Playoff aspirations alive.

If I was being forced into picking a team I would pick the Cowboys. That being said, I feel pretty strongly about a Redskins upset. Feel free to put all your money on Red.

Hail.

The Case for Adam Laroche

Oscar Gamble once told people: "They don't think it be like it is, but it do." Then the Internet found out and now a google search of that phrase turns up more than 4 billion results in less than half a second. 

I am thinking about Oscar Gamble right now, but not for reasons that can be artistically woven into two thousand words about Adam Laroche. I think I am thinking about Gamble because I stole a pizza from a friend's (but not a friend I value enough not to not steal his pizza) refrigerator right before writing this. I left the kid $7 because I felt bad about stealing an entire Dominoes pizza at three in the morning, though I would much rather have that $7. I don't know whether to call that irony or karma, but either way I lost. 

It's a pepperoni, bacon, and Italian sausage pizza. The first bite tastes a lot like one would expect a cold pizza to taste at three in the morning on a Saturday night: fantastic. (editors note: This pizza was gross)

That has nothing to do with Adam Laroche.

This does:

Okay, so this was 11 days ago.

And this was 9 days ago.

Adam Laroche is a lot like Hansel from Zoolander: he's so hot right now. People want him. We now know that the Texas Rangers and Boston Red Sox have thrown their hats in the ring for Laroche, the best First Baseman in the Free Agent market.

There is a dearth of quality First Basemen in Major League Baseball right now. It's actually pretty ugly. Adam Laroche put up the 4th best WAR of any eligible First Baseman last season, which is incredible when you consider the number of people who didn't consider him a Top 10 First Baseman last year (I'm guilty of this), and probably still wouldn't even after his Gold Glove and Silver Slugger winning 2012 season.

The list of the incredulous includes one Red Sox official who Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports quotes as saying, "Like him, Don't love him." If you remember, Laroche played 6 games with the Red Sox in 2009 before he was traded for Casey Kotchman. It was pretty clear they didn't love him then either. 

For the Rangers, while by no means a foregone conclusion, the chances of Josh Hamilton playing for the Rangers next season are slim. His time in Texas did not end with a bang, nor did it end with a whimper, but with thousands of Rangers fans booing him to no end. (The video of which has apparently vanished from existence. Not unlike the 18 1/2 minutes of the Nixon Tapes. Coincidence?) If the Rangers do indeed cut ties with Hamilton it leaves the Rangers with a pretty big gap in Centerfield that no one on their current roster can fill. They do have some young guys who could play Centerfield (and probably aren't ready), but the Rangers would be better suited to go after Michael Bourn or B.J. Upton in Free Agency to try and recoup some of Hamilton's lost production. I don't think the Rangers go after Laroche, considering they already have three First Basemen on their roster (none of which any other team would want to trade for), when they are already going to overpay for an Outfielder and a Pitcher (I'm obviously assuming this, but after the way their season ended it's a good bet). They are not going to overpay for Laroche too because it just doesn't make sense, they don't need him that much.

Assuming that the Baltimore Orioles learn how to share, the Nationals are in line to make some serious TV money, presumedly tripling the paltry $29 million they made in 2012. But even without this TV money the Nationals aren't hurting financially. Which is important. Considering his age and history of being solid-but-not-this-good, Laroche is likely to command a 3 year deal somewhere in the ballpark of $13-15 million per. The class of Free Agent First Basemen this offseason begins and ends with Adam Laroche, so the Nationals either overpay slightly to bring him back, or they let him walk. There are four ways this situation plays out. In no particular order:

Plan A: Let Laroche walk and plug Michael Morse into First Base. This move severely down grades the Nationals infield defense, while at the same time keeping the offensive production relatively consistent. The Nats would then have to open the pocket book further to seduce a Michael Bourn or other top tier Outfielder to come to D.C. The problem with this is that Bourn (Agent: Scott Boras) knows that every team wants what he has to offer (speed, a totally overrated tool) and will command a long term contract north of $100 million. Quick aside: after this season Stephen Strasburg's contract expires and the Nationals are likely to extend him a contract in the $70/80/90 million range. Why not spend less on Laroche, not totally cripple the Infield defense, sign a better Pitcher (Kyle Loshe) instead of a cheaper one for financial reasons (Ryan Dempster), and then re-up with Strasburg at some point during the season?

Plan B: Let Laroche walk, move Tyler Moore to First Base and overpay for Zack Greinke to the tune of $100 million plus. This way the Nationals can keep Morse in Left Field- where he doesn't belong but where The Nationals are forced to play him- while still adding the Pitcher they need. The problem here is that while Tyler Moore played well in limited action last season, his production over the course of a 162 season is unknown. Trading offense for pitching worked for the 2009 San Francisco Giants (26th in the league in runs) who won the World Series, but as a whole teams that can't score runs don't win games. Of 2012 playoff teams only the Atlanta Braves and Cincinnati Reds fell outside the top 15 in runs scored. The Nationals offense last year was strong, but starting Moore would be a significant downgrade. His triple slash line last season, .263/ .327/ .513/ 156 At Bats, isn't terrible for a spot starter/ pinch hitter. Anyone who watched the Nationals will recognize that he was a solid contributer off the bench. Until he fell apart over the last month of the season, as he hit just .153 in September. Maybe the rigors of a 162 games season caught up to him and he fatigued? or maybe the league figured him out?The reasons for this lack of production are irrelevant, the Nationals make this move if they think that Moore is better than just a solid bench player, but (small sample size noted) 156 At Bats later it doesn't look like he is.

The Zack Greinke move, while interesting, also does not make a ton of sense. He was sporadic for much of last season, posting monthly ERA's of: 3.94, 3.06, 1.70, 5.46, 5.22, and 2.11. His crazy outlier of a 2009 season (2.16 ERA and Cy Young) heavily skews his already mediocre career ERA of 3.77. He is a good pitcher- he strikes out about 8 batters per 9 innings and walks slightly less than a third of them- but he gives up a relatively pedestrian 8.9 hits per 9 as well as oodles and oodles of runs. He has 44 career starts in which he has given up 5 or more runs, representing about 20% of his career starts. Oh he has spent most of his career pitching in the American League that's the reason he gives up so many runs? It's not really like the AL Central is a powerhouse, though it is certainly more potent than the anemic NL Central that ranked three offenses in the bottom 10 of the league in 2011. The same year Greinke posted a 3.83 ERA with the Milwaukee Brewers. Is he talented? Yes, absolutely. He plays professional baseball and I am eating disgusting pizza on a Saturday night. All I am saying is that the Nationals shouldn't pay Zack Greinke the opening weekend of a Tom Cruise movie when the best word to describe his pitching ability is "inconsistent." Doesn't this seem crazy? 

Plan C: Let Laroche walk and call up Anthony Rendon, our top Minor League prospect, to play Third Base and move Ryan Zimmerman to First. This way The Nationals keep Morse, and probably extend his contract at some point during the season (were about to get to this, be patient), while getting younger with one of the best prospects in all of baseball. While this may not be the most likely outcome of Laroche's leaving this offseason, it is, or at the very least should be, the Nationals plan for the future. As much fun as it has been watching Zimmerman's inability to throw the ball to First without a running start, it's pretty clear that his shoulder issues are severe (at this point anonymous people on the Nats message boards are comparing him to Rick Ankiel, so that's not good). Rendon, however, is not ready to contribute at the Major League level. Over four levels last year Rendon hit .233 with 6 home runs and 12 RBI. In AA, where he spent most of his season, he hit .162 in 68 At Bats. Obviously this is a small sample size and chances are just as good that he will perform to his pedigree in 2013, but it likely will happen in the Minors. See you in June July August September, Rendon. 

Plan D: Pay Laroche whatever he wants and then trade Michael Morse for a pitcher. Morse is in his contract year and the Nationals are currently paying him a little over $7 million on the 2 year $10.5 million dollar deal he signed after the 2010 season. 2011 and 2012 were productive seasons for "The Beast," injury issues aside, and his trade stock has never been higher, nor will it ever be again. One more productive season close to his 2010 production (.303/.360/.550, 31 home runs, 95 RBI) and he is going to be in line for a fine pay day by some lucky team. It's just not going to be the Nationals. He is an American League player forced to play defense in the National League, and has caused all kinds of pains for the Nationals with his sloth-like agility. He is going to turn 31 during the season- three years younger than Laroche- but has not shown the consistency in the MLB for the Nationals to go out of their way to resign him to the contract he will likely want (Laroche-like). His value on the open market far outweighs his value to the Nationals. Sure, he is quirky and Nationals fans will miss him, but it's not like they are going to be sitting on the couch eating a carton of ice cream and start to mist up when we remember that invisible bat grand slam or all those low-fives. They will probably just remember this.

It just makes too much sense for the Nationals to do this. They need a Pitcher and an Outfielder (either Laroche or Morse is going to be gone anyway) and Morse can get them the quality of arm, 3rd/4th/5th starter, that they want. Instead of overpaying for Kyle Loshe, the Nationals can take that money and get the Laroche deal done. Then they can go after Bourn, or whoever, and feel confident in their chances in 2013.

We will know more in the coming weeks. The winter meetings are starting soon and players from all over the league are going to be moved. Nationals fans can take solace in the fact that Mike Rizzo is one of the more competent General Managers in baseball (and in Chocolate City- I'm looking at you Bruce Allen) and will make the right decisions. For the Nationals it's trading Morse and resigning Laroche. For me it's putting this pizza away before I eat the whole thing. 

They don't think it be like it is, but it do. 

I think I get it now.

2012 Wizards: A Running Diary

What's been up loyal readers (the 8 of you who seem interested in my poorly constructed sentences and limited vocabulary)? How have you been? How did that thing you had to do last time turn out? It went well/ poorly you say? Congratulations!/ You kinda deserved it... Seriously, welcome back. Please don't leave.

The Wizards lost to the Milwaukee Bucks and Indiana Pacers since we've talked last and are now 0-5 which, if not for the utterly indescribable terribleness that is the Detroit Pistons, would make the Wizards the front runners for worst team in the NBA

The Wizards began last season 0-8 before finally getting that first elusive victory. But this is very much not last years team- in ways I have discussed previously, and in ways that should be obvious to everyone with a set of eyes and a passing interest in basketball. This years team is hard to figure out. The sum of the parts (solid) is not equal to the output (zero wins), though there is reason to believe that the Wizards are close to getting that first win. First, I don't think it's possible for a team to go winless over the course of a season- even though the 2011-2012 Charlotte Bobcats certainly tempted fate. And second, the Wizards haven't actually been playing all that bad.

So what if we are winless. We have played four games against pretty legitimate playoff contenders (Boston, Indiana, Milwaukee) and one game against a much better than we though Cleveland team. We are never going to win the NBA Championship with this group of players, but it is not out of the realm of possibility that we finish 9th or 10th in the Eastern Conference. Top to bottom the Eastern Conference really isn't that good this season. The Heat are the definite favorites to win the title again this year, but if you put me in a dark alley with the Celtics or the Hawks? I just don't think that I am that afraid of them.

We don't match up well with teams that feature explosive combo guards (i.e. Cleveland, Milwaukee) because our starting Point Guard right now, A.J. Price, is small and a defensive black hole. Bradley Beal is more athletic than Price but his best defense is going to be his ability to score more points than his match-up on a consistent basis. John Wall is a good defender, and when he comes back our defense is likely to improve, but the status and nature of his injury is worrisome. Balky knees does not a good basketball player make.

The biggest problem for the Wizards thus far has been their offense. Per Hoopdata the Wizards have the least efficient offense (points scored per 100 possessions) in the NBA this season with 91.3. For reference, the Bobcats efficiency last season? 92.3. Their defense last season was historically bad, but you can't win games if you don't score points, right? With a healthy John Wall this number is likely to improve, and with our defense ranking better than league average there is reason to think our fortunes could change in the coming months.

Or they could change tonight. Tonight (11/13) the Wizards play the Charlotte Bobcats in a game for the ages. The stadium will NOT be filled to full capacity; the only electricity in the building will be coming from the generators housed somewhere underneath the stadium; Michael Jordan's body will be there but his mind will be anywhere else (hopefully he is plotting to destroy Space Jam 2). There might be one hundred people on the planet who watch this game to be entertained, the rest likely due to some work commitment.

The Wizards are going to win this game. They are better than the Bobcats. They play better defense, and while they might not score as well they sure as hell pass and take care of the ball better than the Bobcats. Plus, the Bobcats start Brendan Haywood who we dumped years ago. Advantage Wizards.

The Bobcats are a good match up, on paper, for the Wizards. Kemba Walker, their starting Point Guard is small, an inefficient shooter, and nowhere near explosive enough to cause concern. He scores points like Nick Young or Jordan Crawford score points- if he shoots the ball enough some of them are bound to go in. Jeffrey Taylor, a rookie Shooting Guard has not played enough to get an accurate reed of his abilities (Gerald Henderson is likely to miss some time with a foot injury) but his size at 6-7 could pose match up problems for the 6-3 Beal. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is the X-factor in this game. The Wizards have no one to guard him and if he continues his hot shooting (47% on the season) he will cause the Wizards a great amount of pain. The Wizards big men (Seraphin, Okafor, Booker) are better then Brendan Haywood (!), The Artist Formerly Known as B.J. Mullins (Byron Mullins now), Bismack Biyombo, and Tyrus Thomas. As a whole, the Bobcats aren't that athletic, and don't have the kind of perimeter shooting to cause the Wizards problems.

We are going to win because the Wizards have to be better than the Bobcats. Michael Jordan cannot construct good teams, he can only play for them. We need to beat the Bobcats otherwise my faith in this Wizards team will be severely tested- if not shot. I know that the Wizards are bad, I'm not irrational, but they can't be Bobcat bad, right?

Can we just fast-forward to the June draft?