Monday, December 31, 2012

Redskins to the Playoffs!!!!!!! (The "D" is silent)


Somewhere on a cold night at the end of December, Jessica Simpson is laughing. Somewhere Jessica Simpson just finished watching the Cowboys play the Redskins- in a game that determined the NFC East champion- and enjoyed herself. Jessica Simpson is not a Redskins fan (probably) but I think we can be fairly sure that she roots against Tony Romo. If we believe what the tabloids say (and why would we) Romo told Simpson they were never, ever getting back together the day before her 29th birthday.

That was three years ago, but Romo's bad Karma carried over into Landover, MD on the eve of the eve of the New Year. The witchcraft of America's former sweetheart, Simpson, crippled Romo last night as he threw three interceptions. Alfred Morris, the Redskins single-season rushing record-holder, scored thrice and the Redskins won 28-18. D.C., as many a twitter with excitement pointed out, D.C. now stands for Division Champs.

Full disclosure: I haven't seen Django Unchained yet. I want to, like, really badly. I enjoy Quentin Tarantino films and I LOVE Rick Ross:


I saw The Hobbit instead, which is not exactly a terrible movie, just one I had little to not desire to watch. It was no Abe Lincoln: Vampire Hunter (I'm still waiting for my money back), but it wasn't even remotely The Two Towers good. One of my New Years resolutions is to make better movie choices.

As I am writing this I am listening to Django's quasi-theme song, "100 Black Coffins," and it's pumping me up for two reasons: (1) I decided to shell out the $15 necessary to watch Django in theaters later today(!) and (2) the Redskins made the playoffs for the first time five years.

I had planned on writing a game recap, full of armchair analysis and dry, jargon-y language, but then I listened to the Rick Ross song for the 188th time (still fantastic) and took my talents in another direction.

This Rick Ross song is a power anthem. You could triple the length of your run if you blasted this into your ear drums on repeat; you could play this at a house party and start a riot; or you could pay someone lots of money to follow you around to blast this song as your own personal theme music. Either of these would be fine.

I have chosen a different use for the song, however. "100 Black Coffins" will forever remind me of last nights game, just as I have forever associated Avici's "Levels" with fraternity parties. And because that is the case I decided it would be apropos to relive this game through Rick Ross's lyrics.

Great idea or greatest idea?

(Lyrics courtesy of RapGenius):

"I need a hundred black coffins for a hundred bad men
a hundred black graves so I can lay they a-- in
I need a hundred black preachers, with a black sermon to tell
From a hundred black Bibles, while we send them all to Hell"
-This was Alfred Morris' mantra last night while he rushed for 200 yards and scored three touchdowns. He was player of the game and even made a late push for Rookie of the Year consideration. It was because of him, and not RG3, that the Redskins are moving on and the Cowboys are going home. One-by-one he dug the graves that the members of the Cowboys organization will lay in come Monday afternoon (hopefully).

There's Jerry Jones, the most hands-on owner in sports. After Jones commissioned the new Cowboy's Stadium, Stuart Scott quoted a source as saying that the new stadium was "Jerry Jones' personal middle finger to the recession." His ego barely fits in the Dallas metro-area, let alone Cowboys Stadium, and his steadfast refusal to hire a GM (and instead assemble a roster himself) has resulted in ONE playoff win since 1995. The Cowboys will never win again as long as he owns the team. Just as the Rebels destroyed the Death Star at the end of Star Wars, so to must the Cowboys free themselves from the shackles of the Jerry Jones Federation.

There's Sgt. Nicholas Brody Head Coach Jason Garrett. Most of his problems undoubtably come from issues with Jones, but he takes on much of the criticism. Dallas has talent on it's roster, and it is the role of the Head Coach to maximize it and churn out the wins. An 8-8 season in Dallas doesn't cut it especially when they consider themselves contenders every year. He likely will survive to 2013, but a bad start to next season could find him a few spots behind me on the unemployment line.

Then there's Tony Romo. He is 1-6 in "win or go home" games over the course of his career. He threw three picks last night (admittedly because of Jessica Simpson's witch-like ability to force turnovers) and has cemented his reputation as the NFL's least "clutch" player. Statistically he is in the discussion for greatest Cowboy quarterback or all-time, but then you remember he has only won one career playoff game. The rookie quarterback who wins in next weeks Redskins-Seahawks game will tie Romo's record. Congratulations in advance.

The Cowboys under Jones has never been afraid to shake up their roster or make drastic, sometimes rash decisions with personnel. Like the Yankees and Lakers, the Cowboys are always supposed to win and when they don't heads roll. Or, as Jerry Jones might say, there's "a hundred black coffins where I can lay your a-- in."

"Killers coming for you life, all you wanna do is shine?
I broke off the chains only the realest remain
I see your praying to Jesus, but will that help ease the pain?
-RG3. He runs a lot and takes a beating. Last night DeMarcus Ware was coming for RG3's life, but he never touched the guy. Those read option plays the Redskins run from the pistol nullified any impact the linebacker would have on the game. All RG3 wanna do is shine, okay?

Last week Mike Shannahan tightened the grip on his quarterback- he rushed only twice- and ran a more standard pro-style of offense. Yesterday, however, RG3 was more active in the run game and broke off some long runs. More significant than the yards he picked up, in the big picture, was the threat of him running. Like I said before, that read option offense-when done correctly- is tough for a defense to stop. Do RG3 or Morris have the ball? Is it even a run? The defense is left to make split second decisions on who to mark and if they are wrong, like the Cowboys last night, the Redskins can make them pay (274 yards rushing).

Even better for 'Skins fans is how much healthier RG3 looked this week compared to last. He was probably 75% on that hurt knee and was able to get to the outside on some of his rushing attempts last night. He wasn't to keen on taking contact, which is going to be better for his health and safety in the long-term, but he still remained effective. If he continues to heal at this same rate he may be close to 100% by Sunday. The Seahawks have one of the League's top defenses so the Redskins need as healthy an RG3 as they can get.

"Is you a cat or a mouse? Keep them rats out the house"
-This is the part of the post where I shout-out DeAngelo Hall. He played well last night for a guy who only learned to tackle earlier this season. He kept Dez Bryant, who had been ON FIRE in previous weeks, out of the endzone for the first time since Week 9.

"Our revenge is the sweetest, b---- cause I'm coming"
-This is the NFL's best rivalry game that doesn't involve a Manning or a Brady (I don't know any other Brady's but I like the way this sentence sounds). The Cowboys lead the all-time series versus the Redskins 62-42-2 and are 17-9 since 2001. The momentum in this series is poised to shift in the Redskins favor in the coming years as it appears the Romo-led Cowboys are on their last legs while the RG3 'Skins are the League's next big thing. Knowing this feels so good.

I just listened to the song again. I can't tell if I am more excited for the Seahawks or the movie. I'll let you know.

Happy New Years, kids! See you in 2013.

Sunday, December 16, 2012

For Your Consideration: Jan Vesely, Candidate for Bust



Jan Vesely is a professional basketball player for the Washington Wizards. That may be obvious, but I say that because there is a chance you haven't seen him play this year. In a season where the highs are few and far between and the lows are omnipresent- the latest being a 30 point loss at the hands of the Miami Heat- Jan Vesely represents everything that is wrong with the Wizards. From the management side to the basketball side, Jan Vesely is a walking embodiment of the Wizards futility.

After Vesely was drafted, ESPN's Fran Fraschilla described him in the following way: "He's a 6-11, energy guy...you don't have to run any plays for him. He is going to score in transition, he is going to score off of offensive rebounds and lobs. He is a freak athlete, and I do believe he is going to win a dunk contest." That's it. He didn't talk about his ability as a basketball player- though he did joke about his taste in women- or anything about his international career. He can dunk. Awesome. Is that why the Wizards drafted him? Because he can dunk?

Jan Vesely was born in Ostrava, Czech Republic, the third largest city in the country and a pretty intense sports town. He grew up with sports in his DNA: his father played professional basketball and his mother played professional volleyball. Little Jan, presumedly, was playing on his Fisher Price basketball hoop while other kids were collecting Beanie Babies. Ostrava is nicknamed the "steel heart of the republic," and, despite efforts to clean up its coal industry, it remains one of the most polluted cities in the European Union.

So far in the 2012 season Jan Vesely has committed more personal fouls than has points scored. He is athletic but, let's face it, he does more bad than good. He can't find playing time on the worst team in the NBA, and that doesn't say much about him as a player.

"Bust" is a complex word. I'm not really sure if anyone is qualified enough to precisely define exactly what makes a professional athlete a "bust," but that doesn't stop the multitudes from assigning this label to anyone who "underperforms." But what exactly is underperforming?  Sam Bowie was not a "bust," though compared to those selected after him in his draft class he was nowhere near as good. He wasn't as good as Michael Jordan, Charles Barkley, or John Stockton (all picked after him), but he contributed in the NBA. He averaged 10.9 points and 7.5 rebounds during his 10 year career, hardly "bust" numbers.

In order to categorize "busts," however, one must first define exactly what the word means. A "bust," to me, is someone who comes into the league with hype and is expected to contribute at, at least, a league average level. Does that mean it is any first-round pick? I don't think so. There are 60 players selected in any given Draft, and to say that 30 of those players should eventually become league average is foolish. Is Jimmy Butler going to become league average? Probably not. Then again, no one really expects him to. I think one must trim the number of players eligible for "bust" status. In fact, if one looks at the numbers, first-round picks have about the same odds of becoming league average independent of draft position.

Based on win shares, those selected with lottery picks from 2000-2009 (picks No. 1 through No. 13) became league average (sustaining a .10 win share rate per 48 minutes) players 24% of the time. Using the same metric, picks 14-30 have a league average win share rate 25% of the time. This means that the bottom half of first-round picks have become league average just as often as lottery picks.

Yes, there are players like LeBron James, John Wall, Kyrie Irving, and Anthony Davis, players who are (seemingly) obvious locks to contribute in the NBA. Those players, and other top five draft selections, have a high rate of success. Of the 50 players selected in the top five from 2000-2009 there have been only 5 bona fide busts: Marcus Fizer, Jay Williams, Nikoloz Tskitishvili, Adam Morrison, and Greg Oden (Hasheem Thabeet to me is on the fence). That is a 10% failure rate, or, more accurately, a 90% success rate in selecting players so early in the draft.

Then there is the argument to be made that International players make for poor draft selections. Players who come from other countries and leagues (so not including players like Tim Duncan, Hasheem Thabeet, Ronny Turiaf, Luol Deng or Samuel Dalembert, who all played college basketball in the United States) are harder for NBA scouts and executives to evaluate. Those leagues have talent that pales in comparison to that of the NBA, which forces scouts to grade these players against inferior competition. The speed of the international game is different too. The shot clock is longer, reducing scoring, and until recently the three point line was three feet shorter. The court is a different shape, especially with respect to the lane. See for yourself:


The trapezoidal construction of the lane in international play forces post players further away from the basket. Whereas NBA players who have "posted up" need only to rotate their feet to be in position for a layup, international players need to dribble and rely on short jumpers. It is clearly a different game, and it is more difficult to determine how skill sets will translate to the NBA.

Over the course of his young career, Jan Vesely averages 4.1 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 2.64 fouls per game. Because he is a role player, however, these numbers are somewhat expected. The problem is Jan Vesely should not be a role player. He was the No. 6 pick in the NBA Draft; common sense tells us that he should be productive. He hasn't. His career Player Efficiency Rating of 10.5 is significantly lower than the league average of 15, and his win shares per 48 minutes (where .10 is league average) scrapes the bottom of the barrel at .063.

He is limited offensively (this is his shooting chart for 2011-2012), and is not strong, physical, or aggressive enough to grab as many rebounds as his 6-11 frame suggests he should. From what Jan Vesely has shown fans, and the rest of the NBA, it is a wonder as to why the Wizards selected him with the 6th pick.

At the time, no one thought that the 2011 Draft was especially deep. Kyrie Irving and Derrick Williams were the only "sure things." Irving has been good, if not great, while Williams has remained hit or miss for the Minnesota Timberwolves. The rest of the top five went: Enes Kanter, Tristan Thompson, and Jonas Valanciunas. Not exactly a murderers row of prospects. The only thing that the Wizards really did not need coming into the Draft was a Point Guard, and therefore any selection netting the Wizards with some talent would have been welcome. Early speculations had the Wizards taking Kawhi Leonard; a high-motor player who would have done wonders to change the Confederacy of Dunces (Nick Young, JaVale McGee, Andray Blatche) the Wizards were running with.

We grabbed Jan Vesely. NBADraft.net, a website that offers scouting analysis and draft prediction, ranked Vesely the 6th best player in the 2011 class. Vesely, it says, is tall, athletic, a high energy guy, and can shoot threes. None of which are really helping him as a NBA player right now.

At 6-11, Jan Vesely is a tall Small Forward. It is also the position that scouts and fans assumed he would play in the NBA, but that has not been the case. The problem is that the Wizards have a glut of Small Forwards: Trevor Ariza, Martell Webster, Chris Singleton, Cartier Martin, and Jan Vesely all play the position. Because of his height, the only conceivable lineup where Vesely would play Small Forward is one with Emeka Okafor or Nenê, Kevin Seraphin, Vesely, and two guards. This lineup, however, has not so much logged a minute for the 2012-2013 Washington Wizards. The two lineups that Vesely has played most in, per Basketball Reference, are Ariza/Jordan Crawford/Okafor/A.J. Price, and Crawford/Janero Pargo/Seraphin/Webster. Neither allows him to utilize his height over smaller Small Forwards, instead he and his wiry frame are left to matchup with similarly sized or even larger Power Forwards.

As for his athleticism and energy, it's hard for those to make much of a difference when (A) he almost exclusively plays in the post area, and (B) the Wizards have only three wins. Vesely is a pick and roll Point Guard's dream, but the Wizards offense is hardly organized enough to use him in that capacity. As far as I can tell the Wizards run the same offense as guys who play pick-up games at Rucker Park. They run around, try to get open, and then shoot. Jordan Crawford just runs around and shoots, he doesn't care about being open. Instead of spreading out the floor with Vesely as an option on the wing, he is left motionless in the lane and required to create his own offense. Talk about setting yourself up to fail. As for his supposed high energy? The Wizards haven't seen a lot of it. I don't know...if I was getting garbage minutes in a 30 point blowout by the Miami Heat, I would have trouble diving for balls too.

The worst part about Vesely's game, however, and the one thing that needs to change is his shooting. NBADraft.net compares him to Mike Dunleavy Jr. and Andrei Kirilenko, both of whom are tall Small Forwards and shoot the three point shot well. These comparisons confuse me. Vesely has not shown himself to be a particularly adept shooter at any point in these past two seasons. Nor did he prove it in Europe. He shot 27% from three in three seasons worth of games in the EuroLeague, and 28% in four seasons in the Adriatic League. He is not a three point shooter, in fact, in his NBA career he has taken one three point shot. One. If he could shoot you would think he would do it, right? But his shooting issues go well beyond the three point line. He can't shoot from anywhere. In 2011-2012 he took 61 jump shots and made 6: a 10% shooting percentage. Of the 117 field goals he did make, 63 of them were dunks. Dunks are high percentage shots, undoubtably, but outside 3ft from the basket he shot only 15%- which is cause for concern. His offense is limited, and when one compares 2012 to 2011 Vesely does not appear to have taken any steps forward in terms of development.

The biggest issue with Jan Vesely is his speed. He is not fast or quick enough to play on the wing- which is why the Wizards have him in the post- and on defense this results in an inordinate number of personal fouls. As of December 16th he has 37 personal fouls and 31 points scored, a ratio, if it continues to hold for the rest of the season, would place him in miserable company. Because of his size, lack of speed or strength, he is a player without a position. He can jump and dunk the basketball at an elite level, but basketball is a game that requires significantly more skill than that to succeed. Until he develops a jump shot- any kind of shot really- or puts on enough muscle to bang in the post, he will never be a factor in the NBA.

Is Jan Vesely a "bust?" Not yet. It is too soon to pass that kind of judgement on a second year player who is adjusting to the NBA while also adjusting to American life. But if he remains "the-worst-player-on-the-worst-team" caliber, you have my permission to label him a "bust." It only seems fair.

Wednesday, December 12, 2012

What Exactly Is An LCL?


There was only one other time in my life that I felt the way I did after watching Robert Griffin III absorb that hit by Haloti Ngata: August 21st 2010. That was the day Stephen Strasburg heard something in his elbow pop and took himself out of the game. He needed Tommy John Surgery.

When I saw Griffin's leg whip the way it did last Sunday I feared the worst. I've never seen a hit like that cause a body part move like that. It was as scary as it was disgusting. The PG-rated thought that went through my head was: "Oh no, I hope that's not his ACL."

It wasn't. *Exhale*

Griffin had torn his ACL his sophomore year at Baylor (and actually didn't come out right away), and another injury of that caliber would have been devastating. Not only would it have knocked Griffin out for 7-9 months, and all but killed the Redskins chance of the Playoffs, but it would have radically altered the course of Griffin's career.

Griffin is an extremely talented passer, no doubt, but much of his value to the Redskins comes on account of his legs. The pistol formation, the formation from which most our offense is run, works because of its versatility. The Redskins run a series of option plays: triple options, speed options, and read options. Take away Griffin's legs and his burst, and suddenly that offense is not possible. There is a reason that Tom Brady and Peyton Manning don't run this offense; it takes a certain kind of personnel to make it work. A second ACL surgery for Griffin likely would have impacted his running ability, if not hamper it altogether. If he can't run, he is not going to be as effective.

However this wasn't an ACL, it was an LCL.

Griffin was diagnosed with a "mild" or Grade 1 sprain of the LCL (lateral collateral ligament), one of the most treatable and least disabling knee injuries.

     
The LCL is a fibrous band of tissue that connects the femur (thigh bone) to the fibula. This mild sprain means that the ligament was stretched too far, possibly tearing some tiny fibers, but not something critical to the stability of the knee.

Which is a good thing. No, or minimal, structural damage to the knee means that through rest and frequent ice and elevation the knee will heal. Question is: when?

Brett Favre had a similar strain to his LCL in 2002, and played the next weekend. Griffin's status is not so clear. The timetable for this kind of strain is anywhere from 1-6 weeks. He could end up playing Sunday against the Browns, but his knee may not be entirely healthy, putting him at further risk of injury. "Mild" strains such as this are often accompanied with bone bruises on the inside part of the knee. In an article for the Washington Post on Tuesday, Neal ElAttrache, an orthopedic surgeon at Kerlan-Jobe Orthopaedic Clinic in Los Angeles, said of the potential impact of such a bone bruise: "it may also cause some discomfort that would prevent the knee from functioning immediately. In my experience, those injuries can take several weeks to heal."

Griffin is questionable for Sunday's matchup against the Cleveland Browns, though he seems to have practiced with the team Wednesday afternoon. The Redskins are in a precarious position: to play Griffin and risk his health (spurning long term investment for short term gain) or to sit him and risk falling out of the Playoff race entirely?

The Redskins need to sit Griffin. The franchise mortgaged an arm and a leg to get him from the St. Louis Rams, in the hopes that he would lead the team for the next two decades. Yes, the goal of drafting Griffin was to get into the Playoffs and contend for championships, but this was not supposed to be the year. RGIII did not go through the growing pains that fans and pundits expected, and the offense has sneakily been consistently good. The defense is another story altogether. Brian Orakpo and Adam Carriker were lost for the season long ago, and the secondary hasn't shown up for any game this season. Further injury to Griffin's knee would be disastrous for the Redskins, and they simply cannot risk it.

The Cleveland Browns are 5-8 and steadily improving, but in terms of talent level they leave much to be desired. If RGIII is not ready to start, he should not play. Player safety has been a paramount issue for the NFL in recent years, and if we are to believe that any of what they are saying actually matters the Redskins should not play Griffin until he is pain free. It's not worth the risk. Kirk Cousins can handle it.



Sunday, December 9, 2012

A 4th Grader's Letter to Gary Bettman


I know that I haven't said a lot about hockey- mainly because there is no NHL this season, but also because only Playoff hockey is interesting anyway.

Imagine my surprise when my (totally real) little brother, a 4th Grader, wrote a letter to Gary Bettman for a class project. I thought it was thoughtful and pretty funny coming from him so I wanted to post it here as a monument to the worthlessness of the NHL, and why it is consistently the worst sports league in the United States (you're on notice MLS).

I took the liberty to spell all the words correctly, otherwise I have left as initially conceived. Here it is:


Dear Mr. Bettman,

My name is (Name Redacted) and I am a 4th Grader at (Name Redacted), and I live in Washington D.C. My dad is a huge Washington Capitals fan. I am a huge Washington Capitals fan too.

I liked hockey for the first time two years ago when the Capitals went to the playoffs but then lost. I went to all of the games. I remember that everyone was really mad, but I didn’t know why. My dad said that the Capitals were supposed to win, but then didn’t. So everyone got really mad.

Then last year the Capitals were supposed to be good too. But then they lost in the playoffs again. My dad and the other people weren’t as mad. I was mad. I wanted them to win but they didn’t.

This year, Mr. Bettman, there is no hockey. My dad told me that you were the commissioner and that I should write a letter to you to tell you how much I think this stinks. I really like hockey and everyone else does too. I wish you would let them play this year.

My dad said there was something wrong with the collective bargaining agreement (horribly misspelled in the original), and that you didn’t want to pay the players money. Do you not have enough money already? Back when there was hockey me and my dad went to a lot of games and we bought hot dogs and soda at the games too. I think we gave you a lot of our money. I can tell my dad to pay you more if that will help? He buys a lot of things no one uses anyway.

My dad said the players and the owners of the teams have been arguing over money and neither wants the other to have any. Why don’t the owners and players just share the money? My mom gets mad at me when I don’t share my things with my little brother. It gets really annoying but I do it because I don’t like it when she gets mad. Do people get mad at you?

My dad said that hockey missed a season a couple of years ago and everyone was really mad. Aren’t you afraid that the players won’t want to play with you anymore? You aren’t going to let the players play another time. My dad thinks they are all going to play in Europe or Canada and the hockey league here is going to go away. He says that no one is going to want to play for you because you are unfair.

Since you are in charge of hockey don’t you like it? Don’t you want to see the players play it? I think this lockout is unfair. The players can’t play and the fans can’t watch. Hockey is my favorite sport and I am going to be very sad if there is no hockey this year. I hate watching basketball and the Wizards stink.

Sincerely,

(Name Redacted) 

Saturday, December 8, 2012

Redskins-Ravens Preview


It's hard to watch the 2012 version of the Washington Redskins and not think about 2007. That team started out 5-3 before dropping four straight and falling to 5-7. Then something unexpected happened; they won their final four games of the season and snuck into the playoffs as a No. 6 seed before ultimately losing to Seattle in the Wild Card Round.

It's unfair to compare the two because the context of each season is so different. Sean Taylor was killed during the 2007 season and the team, with inspired but heavy hearts, won four of their next five games. The 2007 team also started Todd "Career Backup" Collins during the stretch run of the season after starter Jason Campbell dislocated his left kneecap in Week 14 against the Chicago Bears. In comparison, the 2012 Redskins have the most exciting player in the league, RGIII, as well as one of the worst defenses in the NFL in terms of yards allowed- essentially an inversion from the 2007 squad. That being said, they have won three straight games- against teams in the division no less- and now sit at 6-6. As of now they are on the outside of the NFC playoff picture looking in, but they are still very much alive. They are one game out of both the NFC Easy East lead and the last Wild Card spot with four games remaining. This weekend it's home against Baltimore, then at Cleveland, at Philadelphia, and finally home against Dallas. All of these games are winnable, which is good because the Redskins can no longer afford to lose.

I know that RGIII doesn't deserve all the credit for our recent winning streak (obviously the defense has been playing much better recently), but it feels so natural and easy to credit him for the Redskins recent successes. And I certainly don't think it's out of the realm of possibility to say that he is one of the biggest reasons the Redskins find themselves as close to the Playoffs as they are. He is changing the football culture in D.C., and that's really not even debatable.

I started to watch football- Redskins football- sometime around the end of the 1990's. Thinking back as far as I can my first football memory came at the end of the 1997 season when the immortal Gustave Ferotte did, well, watch for yourself:


My point is that I can't really remember a more polarizing figure or moment during my time as a Redskins fan (though Clinton Portis's first run as a Redskin is close) anywhere near to what RGIII is doing in his first season wearing the Burgundy and Gold. He may not be the reason that the Redskins have six wins and are a fringe contender, but he sure as hell is the reason that people care.

If the Redskins have any chance at finding their way to the Playoffs for the first time since that 2007 team, they are going to need to win this weekend against the Baltimore Ravens, then still maybe even need to win out. Thing is, the Redskins match up pretty well against the Ravens, and the odds of them winning this weekend are good (and I'm not even being biased).

The Redskins play what some would call an old school brand of football: they run the ball on offense (5th in attempts per game) and they stop the run on defense (4th in yards against). The issue is that they don't defend the pass, like, at all. This trend is echoed in the Redskins six losses this season-with the exception of Week 2 against the Rams- which have all come at the hand of a Pro Bowl caliber Quarterback. Sure, the Redskins beat Drew Brees in Week 1, but he still threw for 339 yards and three TD's so it's not like the defense was exactly smothering.

You know what the Ravens do? Well, no actually, they don't really run the ball with Ray Rice (23rd in rushing attempts), who only has 872 yards on the season. So if that was your guess tu as tort. I was going to say that they throw the ball 35.8 times per game (14th), instead of pounding the rock with their best offensive player, Ray Rice. It's weird, the Ravens would rather throw the ball around the field with a barely average Joe "Waka" Flacco "Flame," while Ray Rice "Hey Diddle Diddle's" himself without the ball. Their offense, however, only ranks 19th in the NFL with 343 yards per game; a yardage total that ranks behind such powerhouses as Philadelphia, Oakland, Buffalo and Carolina. The Ravens prefer to throw the ball, not run it, however, they are not particularly effective in doing so.

Flacco's QBR, 50.8 (an average QB's would be 50) is certainly not elite, and neither is his decision making: if you remember, he checked down on a 4th and 29 against the San Diego Chargers (you remember "Hey Diddle Diddle...), a play that would have vilified Flacco had it not been successful. His statistics in road games aren't impressive other: he completes only 55% of his passes; has thrown 4 TD's to 4 INT's, and has a Brady-Quinn-Like Quarterback rating of 70.2 that pales in comparison to his 100.7 at home. It don't think its "wacko" to say that Flacco (no? Okay, I'll stop) is a completely different player away from M&T Bank Stadium.

That's okay, you say, because the Ravens have that Purple-People-Eating defense that chews up offenses and spits them out like over chewed bubblegum. But wait, I say, because that's actually not true. This season Baltimore ranks 25th in total defense, allowing 372 total yards per game, a number that would make my senior year of high school's 0-10 football team blush. Ray Lewis isn't playing in this game with his torn triceps; and Terrell Suggs has a torn biceps and his status is questionable for Sunday- though if he does play it's not going to be at 100%. With these two guys both missing extended time this season the Ravens defensive ranks 23rd against the run and 30th against the pass, making them- in terms of the purple badass-ness scale- more like Tinky Winky than Donatello.

The Ravens have also struggled over the last three weeks, while the Redskins haven't lost.

Okay, fine. The Ravens are 2-1 over this period (and a win is a win is a win), but they played well in exactly zero of these games. Week 11 they beat a Byron Leftwich led Pittsburgh Steelers squad, still searching for its Roethlisberger-less identity; Week 12 they needed a highly unlikely (I can't stress how unlikely this play was... It was very unlikely) Ray Rice first down just to put the game into overtime; then, of course, last week they lost to Charlie Batch(!!!!!!!!!) and the Steelers at home. They easily could have gone winless during this stretch and fallen out of the Playoff picture. Instead, they are 9-4 and probably shoo-ins for a birth (though it's not a sure thing by any means).

Both teams are fighting for their Playoff lives, which is what makes this game so exciting (and why ESPN can't go 15 minutes without talking about it). For the Redskins this is a short week- they just beat the New York Giants on Monday Night Football- and fatigue may play a factor for them in this game. It's December, everyone is tired. But like Eminem says, "sometimes you feel tired, feel weak, and when you feel weak, you feel like you wanna just give up. But you gotta search within you, you gotta find that inner strength and just pull that shit out of you and get that motivation to not give up and not be a quitter, no matter how bad you wanna just fall flat on your face and collapse." *

This game is going to be nasty. This game is going to be angry. This game is going to be exciting. And I have the Redskins winning: 20-14.

Hail.

*Listening to this song makes me want to Gus Ferotte my head into a wall.

Tuesday, December 4, 2012

The Chief Keef Watch: The Signing of Dan Haren



There’s an episode of “How I Met Your Mother” where Robin’s old boyfriend from Canada (played by the immortal James Van Der Beek) visits her for the first time since she was 16. Back then he was good looking and bound for success. When he visits Robin in New York, however, he is anything but. He has a beer gut and is balding slightly, but Robin is still very interested in him and falls back in love with him despite his unattractive exterior. It’s been a while since I’ve seen that particular episode (or the show itself), but it’s actually the first thing that popped into my head after I heard that the Nationals signed Dan Haren.   

Dan Haren is the balding James Van Der Beek and the Nationals are the desperate Robin jumping back into bed with him (the metaphor is perfect, you just have to trust it). Well, according to Ken Rosenthal, and (honestly) everyone with a smart phone and a working knowledge at the Winter Meetings.

And I hate it.

Dan Haren is a three time All-Star selection (‘07, ‘08, ’09), has 199 wins, a career 3.66 ERA, and a 7.2 SO/9 average. Pretty solid numbers. He has been a serviceable (if overrated) No. 2 or No. 3 starter over the course of his career, and if he pitches to that pedigree he will be a smart investment for the Nationals. The problem is that he is no longer that pitcher.

If we take his WARP (wins above replacement player) totals from his last five seasons we notice a pretty explicit pattern. They are declining. In his second All-Star season (2008) he posted a 5.2 WARP- a great statistical season; then the wheels slowly started to come off. He posted 4.7, 3.7, 3.0, and 0.8 his last four seasons, essentially transforming from an All-Star to a borderline starting pitcher.

Surely there must be a reason for this?

Indeed. He is 32 years old and has been hit with a relatively strong case of old-man syndrome (See: Rodriguez, Alex). In the first six years in the league (’04-’10) he was placed on the Disabled List or listed as Day-to-Day four times. He was a workhorse too, throwing (or approaching) 220 innings per season. Recently, however, he has become less reliable than my father’s old 1995 Ford Explorer (and that was a piece of junk). He had five trips to the DL or listed as day-to-day in the past two seasons alone; most notably for a chronic stiffness in his lower back that has plagued him both years.

Injuries can be the result of freak happenings, like taking a line drive off the hand or arm (or getting back spasms from a sneeze). Haren on the other hand, has been plagued with more serious injuries (granted I’m not a doctor, but I know it’s not easy to throw a ball 100 times every five days with back problems), which leads me to believe that his recent lack of production is not an aberration. There is something wrong with him physically, and who is to say that it is fixed? 

His fastball velocity over the course of his career had been rather consistent (90.5-91.5 mph) until last year when he lost a "little" pop. Last year his average velocity was 88.5 mph- slower than or equal to the three best pitchers on my high school baseball team- by far the lowest of his career. Pitchers can overcome a lack of velocity, so this dip in velocity is not necessarily a bad thing. In his three All-Star seasons Haren struck out, on average, 8.5 hitters per 9. In those three seasons the average velocity of his fastball was greater than 90.5 mph. Last year, with a two mph drop on his fastball he needed to adjust and become a different pitcher in order to have any reasonable chance at success. He didn’t.

His line drive percentage last season (the percentage of balls put in play that are line drives) spiked a full percentage point from his career average. His pitches were being hit harder than ever before and unlike years previous, they were leaving the yard. His ground ball percentage decreased by three full points, while his fly ball percentage (two points) and homerun to fly ball ratio (three points) spiked significantly. 94% of the pitches he threw were variations on a fastball (four-seam, two-seam, cutter and splitter), and with his dip in velocity- and complete disregard for his change up (0%) and curveball (6%)- his pitches were of a similar velocity and movement (read: hittable).

The best thing about this signing for the Nationals is the length of the contract: one year. Haren is essentially an experiment. His pedigree is that of an above average Major League pitcher, and if he can channel any of the skill that he exhibited in Arizona, the Nationals will have found a very competent No. 4 starter. Dan Haren is going to be better than most of the opposing pitchers he faces as the de-facto No. 4 starter- assuming that his back has improved (and that, as Buster Onley reported, his hip is a non issue). But if for any reason this marriage doesn’t work out the Nationals can wipe their hands with him rather easily and move on to the next big thing. I hear David Price is available.

What this Haren signing does, primarily, is confuse Nationals fans as to what the offseason strategy is. It was thought that the Nationals were shopping Michael Morse for pitching; and while this still may be the case, it diminishes the odds that they will swing a Danny Espinosa-Morse trade for James Shields of the Tampa Bay Rays (something that I like, but may not be popular with Nats Nation).

Dan Haren is a question mark for the 2013 Washington Nationals. Is the Dan Haren from 2012 going to show his face at Nats Park in April, or will the vintage, better version reemerge and dominate the National League? Mike Rizzo definitely knows more than me when it comes to the players he invests millions of dollars in, but this is one particular instance where I hope he’s right.

Time will tell.

Saturday, December 1, 2012

Breaking Down the Denard Span Trade



If you don’t know, now you know. Denard Span of the Minnesota Twins has been traded to the Nationals for pitching prospect Alex Meyer.

What does this mean for the Nationals in 2012? 

Excellent news.

First, what we gave up. Alex Meyer, a 6-9 220 RHP, was the No. 4 prospect in the Washington Nationals farm system. Last year he gave an indication of his future prowess: over two levels Meyer won 10 games, posted a 2.86 ERA, struck out 139 hitters, and opposing batters hit a measly .211 against him.

Meyer is scouts dream, and the kind of prospect that GM’s drool over. For one, he is 6-9. Clark Kellogg would probably call him “gracile,” or some other lengthy SAT word that probably doesn't exist. In the eyes of scouts and others who evaluate talent, height is a critical characteristic for a pitcher. The thinking is that they are more durable than a similarly talented pitcher who is 6-1 or shorter. Does that actually hold true? Not really. Durability and velocity generated is often independent of height (for every Randy Johnson, there is a Pedro Martinez), and if we look at the height of the average Hall of Fame pitcher we find that it is only 6-1. So while height does matter in some things (like if you want to date pretty girls) it's not the be all end all of a pitching career. 

Tall pitchers actually face challenges that their shorter brethren don’t. It’s actually harder for them to repeat their delivery on a consistent basis (with all those moving parts and whatnot), which can result in a lack of control and having to trade velocity for accuracy.

Meyer’s fastball tops around 98 MPH, and scouts grade his high 80's slider as something that can eventually become an above average pitch. But right now he is raw. He is a two-pitch pitcher who throws a slowly improving change up, however, he doesn’t figure to crack a Major League rotation anytime before 2014 at the earliest. Denard Span is going to make an impact in April.  

I’ve never personally witnessed Meyer pitch, but scouts and other people who deal with advanced metrics suggest that his ceiling is somewhere as a No. 2 or No. 3 pitcher, with a very good chance he ends up as a back of the bullpen guy. Obviously, a lot has to go right for him to get level. With Span we already know he is a starting caliber Center Fielder.

But even if Meyer reaches his ceiling, and truthfully it’s two early to tell, the Nationals just made an excellent trade.

The Nationals plan this offseason was three-fold: get a Center Fielder, get a Pitcher, and figure out what to do with Laroche. Trading for Denard Span checks Outfielder off of Mike Rizzo’s Christmas List and actually saves the Nationals a pretty significant sum of money. B.J. Upton just signed a 5 year/ $75 Million dollar contract with the Braves (starting at 12.45M in 2013 and climbing by 1M a year until 2017), a deal the Nationals would have likely offered him as well. Michael Bourn, the other top tier Free Agent Center Fielder on the market, is going to likely end up being even more expensive than that. The Nationals control Span’s rights for 3 years and owe him 4.75M in ’13, 6.5M in ’14, and have a 9M team option for ’15. That's peanuts for the talent he brings.

Denard Span has been a more valuable player over the course of his career than both B.J. Upton and Michael Bourn. His average WAR per season is 3.3, while B.J. Upton’s 1.7 and Michael Bourn’s 2.7 leave one wondering how they fetched such expensive pay days.

Span, a career .284/.357/.389 hitter, will fit in very nicely with the Nationals. Not only does he get on base and avoid striking out, he is actually one of the game’s better defensive outfielders. With him in the fold for 2013 the Nationals are set to move Bryce Harper to Left Field- minimizing his body from the demands of Center Field- and move Morse…somewhere.

Like I’ve said before, this offseason for the Nationals will come down to Adam Laroche. He wants three years. Rizzo is only willing to give him two. Mike Rizzo’s reluctance to give Laroche tells us something about his future plan. In two years Anthony Rendon, the Nationals Super-Top-Prospect, will be ready to contribute full time (though, probably sooner). Ryan Zimmerman’s shoulder may not hold up much longer at Third Base and he could be flipped across the diamond and experience a very different view of Nationals Park.

The Nationals could chose to let Laroche walk, and move Morse to First Base full time and take all the money they saved and throw it at a Pitcher. Greinke isn’t a realistic option, given his asking price and a slew of other variables, but guys like Kyle Loshe and Ryan Dempster are.

Morse only has one year left on his contract before he will hit the market, which makes his trade value as high as it’s ever going to be (unless he comes out like gangbusters in 2013). The Nationals could trade him for a Dempster level pitcher (or prospects), sign Laroche to a two-year deal with a team option for a third, and then sit tight for the rest of the offseason. Right now we don't know. We are all waiting on Laroche, hopefully he makes his decision soon.

But for now let’s praise Rizzo that we didn’t sign B.J. Upton. Bossman Junior? More like Bossman Junior Varsity. (#5MoreYears)


Let Bonds and Clemens into the Hall of Fame

Yeah, I know that this is not going to be a popular position to take. Hang in there for a second.

When the members of the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) receive their Hall of Fame voting ballots in the mail they are accompanied with a rather ambiguous set of instructions:

"Voting shall be based upon the player's record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played."

That's it. So the baseball writers have to interpret a great deal when deciding who to admit to the Hall of Fame- baseball's most exclusive club. And by my count there are more than a few players who are exceptions to each of these categories.

You want to talk about player's record and playing ability? How about Tony Perez? I don't think he should be a Hall of Famer. He was good, clearly, but by no means great. You can make the argument that Ozzie Smith is overrated and may not be so deserving of his spot in Cooperstown. He played a frighteningly good Shortstop (as his 13 Gold Gloves can attest to) but he couldn't really hit (.262/.337/.328). Sure, he was a popular and well liked guy and made a good deal of All-Star games; I just think one could make the case against his inclusion. Smith is very similar to Omar Vizquel (.272/.336/.352, 11 Gold Gloves), but Vizquel realistically doesn't have a great shot at getting in.

How about integrity, sportsmanship, or character? Did you see Field of Dreams? Ty Cobb was an asshole and a racist (though the latter has become a point of contention), and though it is clear that he had some kind of character, it was not the good kind.* Still, by any statistical measure Ty Cobb is one of the greatest baseball players of all time and he undoubtably deserves to be in the Hall of Fame, character issues acknowledged. Gaylord Perry threw a spitball- a pitch the MLB had outlawed in 1920- for the entirety of his career (integrity? maybe not), but he is in the Hall of Fame. Where do we draw the line? And what kind of line do we draw?

The BBWAA faces a monumental challenge in the coming weeks to determine how to vote for the names on the Hall of Fame ballot this year. Guys like Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Sammy Sosa, and Mike Piazza are first time guys (though I'm pretty sure Clemens isn't retired and will probably try to worm his way back on to the Astros if he can), and guys like Jeff Bagwell, Rafael Palmeiro and Mark McGwire are the notable names returning. Each of these players brings baggage and known, or assumed, connections to performance enhancing drugs (PEDs), and guessing how the BBWAA writers will vote (or not) is going to be relatively difficult to determine. There are many strong opinions either way.

Here is my thinking, and you can agree or disagree, it really doesn't matter. I'm not criticizing any BBWAA voters on their rationale, nor do I think baseball needs to institute the Willy Mays Hall of Fame. I am simply stating my opinion as, I think, a knowledgeable fan of the game of baseball. I am trying to be objective as possible and not hold grudges against players I may dislike (Clemens) or loathe (Bonds). That's my goal. I'm pretty sure that I can do it.

If I had a Hall of Fame ballot (and it's really a shame that I don't) I would place a check next to five names: Bonds, Bagwell, Clemens, Palmeiro, and Mike Piazza. (Sorry, Kenny Lofton).

I'll tackle these guys in a minute, first I want to address the absence of Sosa and McGwire on my ballot. I don't want you, loyal reader, to think I am a hypocrite for including some steroid guys and excluding others. Sosa has the best case of the two because he was a more complete player during his time in the league than was McGwire. For one, Sosa stole 234 bases, won an MVP (over Big Mac in 1998), and was actually a better pure hitter than Mac (.273/.344/.534 to .263/.394/.588). McGwire walked more (not as inflated by intentional walks as you might think- only 150 career) and struck out significantly less, but was essentially a one tool player for the entirety of his career.

The reason that neither Sosa nor McGwire makes the cut is because they cannot hold a candle to other Hall of Famers at their positions. And by this I mean that they are not even in the same stratosphere as guys we consider all-time greats. Take Sosa, for example: to get in the Hall it is obviously not a requirement to be one of the best (whatever position) of all-time but I think you would be hard pressed to put him in the top 20 or 30. That is to say, I don't think you can consider Sosa great. He was very good at his position but as far as Right Fielder's go the standard is remarkably high: Babe Ruth, Hank Aaron, Stan Musial, Frank Robinson, Roberto Clemente, etc. In terms of active players I would probably take Ichiro and the future careers of Giancarlo Stanton and Jason Heyward too. I'm not keeping him out because he took steroids and his performance at the 2005 Congressional hearings (though we are supposed to believe he can't speak English when we have proof in this god-awful commercial?), I'm keeping him out because 600 career home runs really aren't that impressive anymore. (10 of the top 25 all-time home run leaders have played in the last 10 years) 1876 is generally thought to be the beginning of Major League Baseball, as it was the year that the first official game between two -newly formed- National League teams was played. By 2001 (my calculator app tells me that's 125 years) only three players (Ruth, Mays, Aaron) had reached the 600 home run milestone. There have been five additions since 2002 (Bonds, Sosa, Ken Griffey Jr., Rodriguez, Jim Thome) and a few more potentially on the way (Albert Pujols, Adam Dunn, Miguel Cabrera, Stanton?). Suddenly home runs are no longer this be all end all of a baseball statistic, as much as they have become relatively common place in today's game. In 1974, the year Hank Aaron broke Ruth's home run record, there were a total of 2,649 home runs hit; in comparison, in 1998, when Sosa and McGwire both broke the single season record for home runs, there was 5,064 hit- or nearly double from 1974. This 1998 total is not even a by product of PEDs either, as 4934 were hit in 2012 (when the PED problem is supposedly solved). As athletes benefit from different training and nutrition strategies the game is likely to get bigger, stronger, and faster. And home runs are just going to be a by product of this.

These same arguments hold true for McGwire as well. He played a position where offense is not at a premium- thus inflating our perceptions of what a great First Baseman looks like- and was exceptional only in his ability to walk and hit home runs. It's funny, Adam Dunn does both of those things at an elite level-maybe even better than Mac- are you putting him in the Hall? It would make for an interesting discussion at least, but I would say no.

Now, for the guys I'm voting for:

The two easiest guys to argue for are Piazza and Bagwell. Piazza is the greatest hitting catcher of all time, period. A career .308/.377/.545 line with 427 home runs and 1335 RBI is elite as it gets from the Catcher position, and he is unquestionably deserving of a a spot in Cooperstown. He has never been cited for PED use, though some people cite his "bacne" as evidence of PED use, and deserves the benefit of the doubt. Just because Piazza played during a dirty period doesn't make him dirty. This is America, lest we forget.

Bagwell is a similar case. Bags hit .297/.408/.540 with 449 home runs and 1529 RBI while fielding a rather unspectacular First Base. What is unusual about Bagwell, and sets him apart from others at his position, are the nine seasons he scored more than 100 runs (1517 career) and the two seasons he was a member of the 30-30 club (home runs and steals). He has an MVP and a World Series ring, and was never even so much as suspected of using PEDs. He, like Piazza, is the classic example of a guilty until proven innocent guy just for having playing during the so-called "Steroid Era," but his résumé stands up just as well to anyone in the history of the sport.

Palmeiro, Clemens, and Bonds are all going to be lumped under the same central logic, so let me start by making a statement for each:

In the same Congressional hearing where Sosa misremembered how to speak English, Palmeiro, while wagging his finger and channeling his inner Dikembe Mutombo, spoke words he likely wishes had never left his lips: "I have never used steroids. Period." What happened? Five months later he got caught using steroids. Oops. Not only was it disappointing that one of my favorite players ever was a PED user, it fundamentally changed the way history is going to remember him. Bonds? We'll remember those 7 MVP's and home runs hit into McCovey Cove. Clemens? Those 7 Cy Young's, that 20 strike out game (that time he almost killed Mike Piazza- the 2:25 mark). Palmeiro? He's got that damn finger wag. It's a shame. His career stats: a .288/.371.515 line, 569 home runs, 1835 RBI, and 3020 hits make him only the 4th member of the 3000/500 club, joining Eddie Murray, Willie Mays, and Hank Aaron. Whatever metrics you want to use to determine Hall of Fame players, Rafael Palmeiro is going to be there. Sure, he was never the dominant guy in any one season (and he only made 4 All-Star teams) but he was nothing if not consistent. He had nine consecutive seasons of 35+ home runs and 100+ RBI, and 10 total for his career. The guy could hit and, unlike Sosa, his peak lasted longer than three seasons.

The deal with Clemens is that no one actually has any concrete evidence linking him to PEDs. Did he use them? I don't know. Maybe only a handful of people on the planet know the true answer to that question. It's widely assumed that he did, but the league didn't start testing for PEDs until the end of the 2003 season when Clemens was 40 years old. He won the Cy Young with the Astros in 2004, and in 2005 posted his lowest career ERA ever (1.87) while throwing a pretty substantial 211.1 innings. Presumedly, if he was juicing during this period he would have been caught. He never tested positive. But forget about this for a minute and just tune into the stats: 354 wins (9th all-time), 4672 strikeouts (3rd), a career 3.12 ERA, 8.55 or 8.6 K/9 (depending on your source- 7th or 8th). He won 7 Cy Young's (1st) and the MVP in 1986 when he was only 23. He is one of the five greatest pitchers ever, though (for reasons having to do with the "Dead Ball Era") I would personally rank him first.

Next comes Bonds. He admitted to taking PEDs, though he claims that he never took them knowingly. He is the all-time leader in home runs (762), and walks (2558), collected 2935 hits, stole 514 bases- inventing and remaining the sole member of the 400-400 and 500-500 clubs- while hitting .298/.444/.607. He is probably one of the three best hitters ever, somewhere behind Ruth and in front of Mays, while also being the most feared (688 intentional walks, more than the #2, Aaron, and #3, Pujols, put together). He also has won 7 MVP trophies, including four straight from 2001-2004, and could have easily won another in 2000 if not for his good friend and teammate Jeff Kent. His résumé is ridiculous. His numbers, just like Palmeiro and Clemens, are there.

But it's not about the numbers, and that's the point. Bonds, Clemens, and Palmeiro are going to lose Hall of Fame votes not because their statistics aren't good enough, it's because they disrespected the game; the sacred game.

But it's not sacred. Not really. It's the quintessential American sport and our "National Pastime," but the sport has a checkered history with cheating and poor gamesmanship. The spitball was banned from Major League Baseball in 1920 after Ray Chapman was stuck in the head with one and died. Gaylord Perry, Don Drysdale, and Don Sutton all threw spitballs and other doctored pitches (in the 1960's and 1970's!), and they are all in the Hall of Fame.

The 1951 New York Giants? You know, the one's that won the pennant? They were 13 1/2 games out of First Place with 53 games to play, won 16 straight, and forced a three game playoff series against the Brooklyn Dodgers for the National League Pennant that ended with a Bobby Thompson walk off home run. Well, they were so bad before the winning streak that Giants manager, Leo Durocher, set up an elaborate system to relay pitches to his hitters. He stole signs to gain a competitive advantage. The same thing happened with the White Sox in the 1980's and, most recently, the Blue Jays.

You've heard of the "Black Sox." "Shoeless" Joe Jackson and others who threw games in the 1919 World Series and got banned for life are one of the most infamous instances of baseball's sacredness losing to want of cash. The though goes that the 1914 Athletics also (though evidence is lacking) threw the World Series to the Braves for cash.

Pete Rose and former Phillies owner William D. Cox both bet on baseball (and their own teams) and were banned for life.

Albert Belle and Sammy Sosa both used corked bats- a no-no.**

Kenny Rogers used a "foreign" substance on his hand in the 2006 World Series.

If you want to tell me that this game is sacred go ahead, just know that there is about 100 years of evidence to prove you wrong. I love baseball, and it saddens me to think about this, but cheating in baseball is just as American as apple pie and Chevrolet.

If you want to fix the PED problem in baseball, it's simple: One Strike and You're Out. If you get caught using a banned substance, you get banned from playing baseball. Right now it's a Three Strike and You're Out policy; a policy that says the MLB is okay with players taking PEDs. With the One Strike and You're Out we give the players a chance to appeal the positive test (this is still America. We didn't go anywhere after the last Piazza paragraph) before you ban them from the sport. That would clean up the game. There are many ways to improve how you play baseball- taking PEDs doesn't have to be one of them. Until the MLB makes a more definitive and aggressive stance against those who use PEDs the drugs won't go away. Six Major League players tested positive last year, the third most since the test began. The players aren't scared. The financial successes of playing professional baseball still outweigh the risks of getting caught, and that is what needs to be changed. If the MLB doesn't want its players taking PEDs they can stop it. If the MLB doesn't want them in the Hall, take their names off the ballot. If they don't do that what they are essentially telling everyone is that it is okay to vote for them. And if that is the case, I will.

Baseball is supposedly exiting the "Steroid Era" right now and entering into a new era in the game's history. And while that is true, it is important to look back on the importance and long-term impacts the "Steroid Era" has and will have on the game. Jose Canseco, love him or hate him, is essentially the "Steroid Era" guy. He understood steroids before anyone else and taught many of his teammates how to use those drugs. He is also a nark and a whistleblower, and someone I would never want to be associated with. But as far as information goes, he has been a very reliable source for all things steroids. He told us about A-Rod, McGwire, Juan Gonzalez, Ivan Rodriguez Rafael Palmeiro, and Miguel Tejada; much of what we know about the "Steroid Era" comes from him. He estimated that 85% of players in the MLB were using PEDs. A number that would seem so utterly impossible if it probably wasn't true. Canseco knows. The question is: what does it mean that 85% of the MLB was taking PEDs?

It means that those were the times: players had illegal pills on display in their lockers (Mark McGwire), they stuck needles and injected steroids into their buttocks', and rubbed illicit cream on their bodies. And nearly everyone was doing it. This was how baseball was played in the 1980's, 1990's, and early 2000's. This was the "Steroid Era." We can compare it to another era of baseball history; the early 20th Century "Dead Ball Era," where offense was almost non-existent. The baseballs themselves during this period were often softer and harder to hit, and the ball parks were massive (the West Side Grounds of the Chicago Cubs was 560 feet to the centerfield fence, and the Huntington Avenue Grounds of the Boston Red Sox was 635 feet to the same spot). It was nearly impossible to score runs, therefore we see that pitching statistics during this period are inflated as a result. Do Hall of Famers Walter Johnson, Cy Young, Christy Mathewson, Grover Alexander and Mordecai Brown have asterisks on their career statistics for pitching in an era that heavily favored pitchers? No. That's just the era they played in. Just like Bonds, Clemens, and Palmeiro and the "Steroid Era."

If baseball's Hall of Fame attempts to preserve history, honor greatness, and connect generations, as it's masthead suggests, Bonds, Clemens, and Palmeiro certainly deserve election. Baseball has faced dark times before, and it has always endured. It has never been afraid of it's own history- it embraces it. For 25-30 years baseball players have been taking PEDs to improve their performance and to transform themselves into the best possible players they can be; to ignore this history would be a travesty. 30-40 years from now young fans have the right to know what baseball was like in 2012, as well as its best players. It was Bonds. It was Clemens. It was Palmeiro. Yes, they broke the rules (the first time baseball players had ever broken the rules, clearly), and yes maybe we can call into question their integrity (again, clearly the first time we've ever done that), but they were the best players of their time. Let them into the Hall.

If you want to put an asterisk next to their name because they did things differently, fine. Let's never change the game. Keep the home run record with Babe Ruth because a 162 game season is outrageous. Lower the mound because that's the way it was when Cy Young pitched, fine. Our game used to be so segregated that Hall of Famers refused to set foot on the same field as African-Americans- now many of the game's best players (and all-time greats) are black. Players didn't always wear helmets; there wasn't an amateur draft until the 60's (teams used to bid on college athletes); and Free Agency didn't exist until the 70's. The context of the game changes, and we need to constantly redefine what "great" means in these different contexts. If Walter Johnson can be considered the best pitcher in the history of baseball even though he played with a ball that hitters struggled to hit into the outfield, why can't Barry Bonds be baseball's greatest hitter?

If you don't like what they did, kick them out of baseball. Otherwise they are legitimate. Let them in.


*My favorite "Ty Cobb is an asshole story" comes from 1910. That year the Chalmers Automobile Company was going to give the American League Batting Champion a brand new car. Wages were low at this point, so this was a big deal. Cobb sits out the last two games of the season to keep his .385 average higher than second place Nap Lajoie. The last day of the season Lajoie's Indians played the St. Louis Browns who "allowed" Lajoie to collect 8 hits. (They played their Third Baseman in the Outfield and Lajoie had a few "infield" singles, etc.)  For all his best efforts to keep Cobb from winning, Browns manager Jack O'Connor failed miserably. Lajoie lost to Cobb by 9 ten-thousandth's of a percentage point, and the President of the American League banned O'Connor from baseball. 

**Albert Belle's situation is equal parts sad and hilarious. How this hasn't been made into a mocumentary is beyond me. Someone needs to get on this.