Who is REALLY the Best Pitcher on the Nationals?

You don’t want to piss off the Small Sample Size God’s. They can be real sticks-in-the-mud if you’re not careful. They can see past All-Stars’ ERA hang around 5 while still letting them post career high in K's/9. At the same time, another All-Star quality pitcher can see his ERA sit at nearly 1.60, while posting a career low in K/9. (Obviously K/9 isn’t everything, but it’s an interesting metric to show how unhittable, or not, these guys are).

So pour out some of that liquor you have to drink to get through a Bob & F.P. broadcast for the sake of Gio Gonzalez’s poor start, and maybe take a swig or three to believe Jordan Zimmermann’s.

Buzzed? Good. You’re doing it right.

Over these one-and-a-half months we have learned quite a bit about the Washington Nationals. They are good; they just aren’t as perfect like we thought. Turns out Danny Espinosa is expendable, Anthony Rendon isn’t ready, Ryan Zimmerman isn’t healthy, but B.J. Upton is still terrible (#TeamSpan).

The top three pitchers on the Nationals staff (3.40 ERA, 4^th in the MLB as of May 13^th), Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmermann, have pitched anywhere from Cy Young level to “meh” so far in 2013, a major reason the squad is only 21-19 when everyone thought they should be 40-0 and on their way to 162-0. Seriously, Nationals’ starters: what gives?

Small sample size on the 2013 season recognized, I had a thought the other day during Jordan Zimmermann’s win against the Tigers May 8^th (and all my thoughts end up on this blog…you’re welcome). I wondered if Jordan Zimmermann was the best pitcher on the Nats staff.

Like better than Stras or Gio?

Yeah.

I wondered.

So I took a look at the numbers.

Stephen Strasburg:

Popular opinion, funded somewhat tangentially through common sense, suggests that Stephen Strasburg is the Nats best starter. He was their No. 1 pick not five years ago, and contributed mightily to the rebuilding efforts of a franchise that finished in last place two seasons in a row only four years ago.

We know about Strasburg. He throws hard. He racks up strikeouts like Tiger Woods racks up trophies. But this season something has been off.

He had Tommy John surgery not too long ago, so his arm should be strong and any doubts he may have had about his delivery and the toll it would take on his body should have evaporated after his remarkable 2012 season. Plus his average fastball velocity is still formidable, 95.6, a number that is down from 2010 when he broke in but consistent since his surgery (all statistics courtesy of FanGraphs).

Strasburg’s struggles this season, if I may be so brash as to call them that, seem to boil down to his inability to get outs when he needs them.

Let us consider for a moment Strasburg’s latest outing, May11th against the Chicago Cubs. Through 4 innings of work he had thrown 53 pitches, retired 11 in a row and struck out 7. He was cruising like Florida Georgia Line. Then, after two quick outs in the 5^th inning the wheels came off. Suddenly he couldn’t find the plate. When he did, opposing pitcher Edwin Jackson roped a two-run double off the centerfield fence. The Cubs ended up adding two more runs on what ended up becoming a four-run, 42 pitch disaster of an inning.

The peripheral statistics for Strasburg in 2013 are in line with his career averages. His ERA is good; his BAA (batting average against) is low. Yet, he is 1-5 in eight starts. What gives?

It’s the fastball. Pitchers, Strasburg being one of them, generally throw multiple variations of a fastball. There’s the four-seam fastball (hard and flat), the two-seam (breaks in to a right handed batter thrown by a right handed pitcher), the cut-fastball (breaks away from righty’s), the split-fingered fastball (breaks down), and the sinker (which “sinks,” not as extreme as the split-finger). Strasburg throws the four-seam and the two-seam. In 2013, however, he barely throws the two-seam. Only 9.3% of the time when compared to a career 13.1%. The result of this is two-fold. One, hitters looking for a fastball are likely to see one that is flat (Translation: hittable). On the flip side, however, his changeup has become a much more effective pitch. It keeps hitters off balance, forcing them to respect its movement and speed differential, which isn’t easy considering his fastball can top at 98-99.

But this season the changeup hasn’t been any more effective than it has been in the past, while the fastball has seen a sharp decline in value. In 2013 Strasburg’s changeup has generated about 3.2 runs above average, right in line with his career average, while his fastball has declined to -2.8 (in 2012 it was 4.6). Potentially more alarming is the reduced effectiveness of his curveball. Last season it generated an other-worldly 9 runs above average while the 2013 number is only 0.9. The 0.9 is more closely aligned with his 2010 figure (2.6—granted in 12 starts) so it is difficult to determine whether his curveball is actually a dominant pitch that he has mastered, or if 2012 was an anomaly.

Along with the decreasing effectiveness of his pitches (yikes), Strasburg has had issues pitching with runners on base. His strand rate of 66.7% is low for him, indicating his struggles getting outs when he needs them. Normally I would be confident that this percentage would revert back to his career norm if not for his low strike out totals. His 9.30 K/9 is well off his 2010 and 2012 numbers. And the fact that his pitches are not as effective as they have been in the past does not predict future strikeout supremacy. If the best way to prevent the other team from scoring is to prevent the other team from putting bat on ball, Strasburg's declining strikeout rate affords offenses more scoring opportunities. 

The real issue for Strasburg has been a lack of run support: 15 runs in eight starts. Less than two runs per game. That’s like Tin Lincecum circa 2011 bad.

If I’m the Nationals, however, I’m getting a little anxious over Strasburg. With each passing start my fingers are moving closer and closer to the panic button. I'm less and less certain that Strasburg's struggles are the result of small sample-sizing and have more to do with a tangible decline in effectiveness. 

He pitches tonight (May 19th) against the San Diego Padres. Hopefully he shows us something.

Gio Gonzalez:

Gio was closer to the Cy Young last season than was Strasburg or Zimmermann, and he was undoubtedly the Nats most important pitcher. He won 21 games in (nearly) 200 innings pitched while both striking out more hitters and walking fewer batters in the process. It was a magical season. His struggles this season force one to consider if 2012 was indeed an anomaly. Like Kirk Lazarus tells us (skip to 4:14), it’s possible that Gio Gonzalez is all out of the Chris Angel Mindfreak, David Blaine trapdoorhorseshit that was jumping off in 2012. Just a thought.

The K’s are still there for Gio this season. Nearly a career high of 9.40/9. Problem is, the walks are there too: 4.20/9. Hitters, in fact, are only seeing pitches inside the strike zone from Gio 39.6% of the time. If that seems low, that’s because it is.

Like Strasburg, some of Gio’s stats are phenomenal. His .198 BAA and 1.20 WHIP don’t seem to mesh with a pitcher who is 3-2 with a 4.20 ERA. What we see when we look closer at the numbers is both alarming and lucky. Gio’s FIP (fielding independent pitching) is 3.75, right about his career average and what would qualify as league “above average.” His 2.82 last season? An outlier. He is also serving up taters like a short order cook at a truck stop. Which, while delicious, is bad pitching. He is giving up one HR per nine innings, while his HR/Fly Ball(FB) percentage sits at 12.8%. And he hasn’t been disproportionately unlucky either. His batting average on balls in play, which sits at .284 career, is only .243. Just wait until he hits the hard times. Someone call Ludacris!

If that weren’t bad enough, Gio’s bread and butter pitch, that curveball has seen better days. He is throwing it less frequently, 19.8% to 26.1% career. It’s also been worth -1.4 runs.

The question with Gio, then, is whether he is actually the pitcher we saw in 2012, or if his Cy Young quality campaign is unsustainable over the next five, six, seven years? As the sun starts to come out in D.C. (and I can’t wait, I need sun like Amanda Bynes needs attention) maybe the Florida born Gio will start to heat up. Right now despite his strong showing against the Cubs in his last start, I'm not convinced Gio is as dominant of a pitcher as we saw in 2012. But he's not as bad as we've seen here in 2013. He's a strong #2, not an ace. By the end of the year his stats will reflect that.

Jordan Zimmermann:

I imagine as you read this long post (trust me, it took much longer to write) you got the sense that I was going to gush over J-Zimm. And if you didn’t, let me make it clear that "gushing" is not my intention here. If anyone in the MLB is the beneficiary of the Small Sample Size Gods, it’s Jordan Zimmermann.

He had a good season in 2012: one certainly can’t argue against 12 wins and a 2.94 ERA. But this season his numbers are unsustainable. (Which annoys me because I own him on my fantasy team...I wonder if Roy Halladay is available?).

Right now he sports a 5.98K/9, a career low, a .230 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), another career low, and a 1.69 ERA. Why is his hot start unsustainable? He’s not missing any bats and is leaving a ton of guys on base. His 83.3% strand rate is incredible. And while his 79.3% rate from last year suggests that he certainly capable of stranding runners on base and from crossing home plate, the percentage of balls that are put in play is large enough to think that eventually more will find holes in the defense.

Batters make contact with 91% of J-Zimm’s offerings inside the strike zone: pitches that more hittable than pitches outside of the zone. This is problematic for three reasons: First, his first pitch strike rate is only 58.2%, significantly off his career average. This means that hitters are swinging during good hitting counts. That means better pitches to hit. Second, his swinging strike percent is only 7.3%. Hitters are taking swings, and they aren’t missing. Obviously, there is something to the fact that he is getting soft contact, but eventually big league hitters are going to square these balls up.  Third, and touched on earlier, his BABIP is .230. Career it’s .288 (in 2012: .288). Those balls in play are going to find grass. It’s only a matter of time.

It’s possible that J-Zimm, in his third “full” major league season, has learned how to pitch. He may have turned a corner in his professional development, living up to his potential as a former first round selection and becoming one of the best pitchers in baseball. There’s also a good chance that an inordinate amount of luck, and a wink by the Small Sample Size Gods leave him a pitcher moonlighting as a Cy Young favorite.

The Small Sample Size Gods strike again. Look for Gio to turn it around (even if it doesn't mean Cy Young) and for Zimmermann to stall out. Pray for the old Strasburg to return. We’ll need him if we want to finish the rest of the season undefeated.

Who Should the Washington Wizards Draft in 2013?

There is a light at the end of the tunnel for the Washington Wizards. It's either an escape from the tunnel of losing, or it's an oncoming freight train. The Wizards' draft pick this summer (June 27th) will go a long way to determining which one that ends up becoming.

As of this publication, the Wizards are 29-51 and playing poorly. Which is perfect if you are a Wizards fan and want to see them with a slightly better chance at potentially having a higher draft pick depending on whether or not ping pong balls are selected in the order in which they are anticipated. Or maybe David Stern will throw us a bone and let us pick in the Top-5. The Wizards have more losses than the Minnesota Timberwolves right now, but they both have 29 wins and are therefore in a battle for a chance at the 8th pick.

This is important because the players entering the NBA this season either are not that great, or will be projects and future D-League All Stars (I mean with all due respect. I wish I was a D-League All Star right now). The Wizards have some pieces in place for their future, and the right draft pick this summer would go a long way to the Wizards' chances at making the playoffs.

Plus the Wizards are in the Eastern Conference, where winning records for playoff teams are optional.

Can the Washington Nationals Win the World Series?

It seems reasonable to ask this question given what happened last night at Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati, Ohio. It's early, and this loss means nothing in the grand scope of a 162 game season, but I find that over reactionary criticisms are best. Can the Nats really win the World Series?

The short answer: yes.

The longer answer (because I know you want to read on...it's been a while since I've posted):

Is John Wall a Franchise Player?

Let me start by telling you something that you already know: losing sucks.

Ask any Bobcat fan (provided, of course, that you can find a Bobcat fan).

Losing, inevitably, breeds high draft picks. And those picks should, in theory, make teams better. For example the Wizards have selected with one of the Top 6 selections in each of the past three drafts. Odds--hell, even common sense--would suggest that they would hit on a franchise player in at least one of those drafts. The question is: have they? In those three drafts the Wizards have selected John Wall, Jan Vesely and Bradley Beal. In terms of threesomes they rank somewhere behind the new Star Wars trilogy, and slightly ahead of that Cuervo-fueled threesome you had Freshman year of college.

NL East Preview

"Baseball, it is said, is only a game," wrote Pulitzer Prize-winning author and essayist George Will. "True. And the Grand Canyon is only a hole in Arizona. Not all holes, or games, are created equal."

And Baseball (like Brittney) is back, bitch. So get your popcorn ready.

Chances are if you clicked here then the only division you really care about is the National League East. And that's good; you have good taste. We didn't corrupt our league with the designated hitter, so this is where baseball fans flock to find a more perfect display of our National Pastime. The NL has won the last three World Series titles, and five of the last seven, so not longer is our league a joke. It's like what 50 Cent said about the American League, "Damn homie, back in the 90's you were the man, homie" (I think that's how it goes...)

Kind of like how Manchester City is the best team in the English Premier League, the East is the best division in the National League. And the only one that we care about here at the Bandwagon.

There has been quite a bit of movement this offseason in the NL East; teams got stronger, teams got worse, teams revolted against their owners. The question persists: what to make of all this? Well, since you clicked here (thanks, by the way) let me tell you.

Let me begin with 2012:

2012 Season Standings:

Washington Nationals: 98-64
Atlanta Braves:           94-68
Philadelphia Phillies:   81-81
New York Mets:         74-88
Miami Marlins:           69-93

Here's what happened. The Phillies and the Marlins "underachieved" and the Nationals "overachieved." The Marlins, it seems, just overpaid for players overvalued by the market (Heath Bell) and thus fell short on absurdly high expectations. The Phils were bitten by two bugs: injury and age. Their big bats were hurt for most of the season and their offense suffered for it; their pitching staff was pretty healthy, however, they weren't their usual selves. As for the Nats: they killed it. Everyone produced, everyone was effective. Will that keep into 2013? Read on, enjoy my predictions, and kneel before my statistical evidence.

FIRST PLACE: Washington Nationals
Projected Win-Loss Record? 100-62

Key Additions: Dan Haren, Denard Span, Rafael Soriano

Key Departures: Michael Morse, Sean Burnett, Edwin Jackson

The Word:

Did you really expect me to pick someone else here? As the self-appointed driver of the bandwagon (a title I only just realized I had) I would be remiss to pick anyone but the Nats here. Like Ukraine, they are too strong.

First, and probably most important, the pitching staff is fierce. Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, Ross Detweiler, and addition Dan Haren, form what is undoubtably the best 1-5 in all of Major League Baseball. The Nats led the NL in ERA in 2012 with a 3.33 clip, and that was with only 159.1 innings of Strasburg, and 189.2 of Edwin Jackson. Haren is an upgrade from Jackson talent wise, there is no doubt of that. His health remains the question here, as he struggled in 2012 from a variety of hip and back problems. If he can stay healthy he one of the best 5th starters in the league, and a nice upgrade for the best pitching staff in the National League.

A fact that may surprise you about the Washington Nationals lineup last season is that it ranked Top 5 in the National League in Runs, Hits, Home Runs, RBI, and AVG. That was with a green Bryce Harper still adjusting to the Majors, and with the Catcher position as an automatic out for most of the season. In the offseason the Nats added Denard Span (a guy I am high on) without losing any of their major contributors. The addition of Span likely shakes up the lineup slightly, forcing (probably) Jason Werth down to 6, but right into the heart of a now extremely balanced and dangerous Washington lineup.

There are two main question marks for the Nationals this season: can they cope with the loss of Michael Morse, and how will the bullpen fare? Morse, The Beast, had evolved into a good hitter in his four-years with the Nats, posting an under-the-radar .303/31HR/91RBI in 2011 before missing 60 games in 2012. Jason Werth, Bryce Harper, and a fully healthy Ryan Zimmerman will be able to pick up the missing power and RBI resulting from Morse's departure. With Morse gone, two of the Nationals biggest weaknesses will improve. He was a black hole in left field: combining limited range with a below average glove and arm to post a defensive WAR of -1.6 and -1.0 the last two seasons respectively. Moving Harper or Werth to Left Field is a huge plus for the Nationals. It's like replacing late night pizza with salad; like, yes, you are going to be healthier. Morse's other issue were his strike outs. The Nats struck out 1325 times in 2012, third worst in the league. Morse struck out 97 times in 102 games (while walking only 16 times), while Span, his defacto replacement K'ed only 62 times in 128 games. It's a decent upgrade, though not entirely dramatic, and will certainly help the Nats over the course of the season. As far as logic goes, you have a better chance of getting on base as a hitter if you actually hit the ball somewhere. Nearly everyone on the Nationals strikes out too often (led by Danny Espinosa's other-worldly 189), so a mitigation of any number of strike outs is a positive. It's a problem, and one worth monitoring over the course of the season.

I've touched on the bullpen before, curious as to how the Nats will cope without a late inning lefty pitcher. It's not a huge issue that the Nats don't have a stop-gap lefty because the statistics don't really suggest that Lefty-Lefty match-ups are any more effective than Rightly-Lefty match-ups. Plus, Tyler Clippard has been a Lefty killer, posting an .170 AVG against LHB in 2012. Now that he is no longer forced into the closer role he will become a more valuable option for Davy Johnson in late game situations. Zach Duke will be an interesting player to watch, as he seems poised to throw significant innings in the Tom Gorzelanny long reliever role. I worry about Zach Duke. I foresee frequent bases-loaded-induced cussing spasms by me, and an inordinate number of Zach Duke highlights called "Duke Escapes Jam." Neither are preferable.

SECOND PLACE: Atlanta Braves
Projected Win-Loss Record? 90-72

Key Additions: B.J. Upton, Justin Upton, Chris Johnson

Key Departures: Michael Bourn, Martin Prado, Chipper Jones

The Word:

Yes, that's correct, the Nationals are going to run away with this division like Chris Brown in "Takers" (it's a horrible movie, as evidenced by this clip). To me, the Braves are going to have a bigger issue holding off the Phillies than actually catching the Nationals. Let's talk about why:

On paper the Braves offense is sexy. Justin and B.J. Upton??? Can wonder twin powers activate even if they're not twins??? In reality the difference between what they lost in the offseason and what they gained is basically non-existent. You can read it up there with the key departures, but losing Bourn, Prado, and Jones is a huge blow to an offense that was barely National League average last season.

Vince Lombardi once said that "the dictionary is the only place where success comes before work;" you're little league coach told you that "practice makes perfect." B.J. Upton has likely never heard either of these sentiments, or, if he has, he didn't find them particularly important. If ever anyone has gotten less out of their God-given talents it's B.J. Upton. Announcers salivate over him because "he doesn't run so much as he glides." I would counter with: "he doesn't hustle so much as he jogs." He's that kid in high school gym class that was too cool to do any of the exercises; and now that he actually gets paid to play a sport he is still too cool to do any thing. The disparity in talent between him and Chipper may not be significant, but their attitudes couldn't be any further apart. If you don't think he is going to lose the respect of his teammates at some point this season, you, my gracious reader, clearly don't know how a B.J. works how B.J. works.

I said the Nationals strike out frequently, right? Well, they are going to pale in comparison to the mighty 2013 Atlanta Braves. In 2012 the Braves struck out 1289 times, the fourth worst in the NL. In 2013 this number looks to jump significantly with the loss of Jones and Prado (a combined 120 K's in 2012) and the addition of the Upton Brothers (a combined 290 K's). Like I said before, it's hard to score when you don't put the ball in play. It's not going to matter how good the Braves bullpen is if they aren't protecting leads.

Speaking of the Braves pitching staff: it's not 2003, Tim Hudson is no longer an Ace...even if he does play one on TV. The starting 5 consists, in some order, of Hudson, Kris Medlen, Mike Minor, Paul Maholm, and Julio Teheran (probably actually in this order). Hudson has been a consistent piece of the Braves staff for years now, but he is turning 38 during the season, how much longer can he be effective as his skills continue to decline? Medlen and Minor are intriguing young arms (as is Brandon Beachy who will return at some point this season after Tommy John surgery) with question marks. Minor pitched well in the second half of 2012, posting a 5.97 ERA pre-All Star break and 2.16 post, so it will be interesting to see if he is the batting practice pitcher he was early on, or the stud into which he transformed. If we're talking studs the name Kris Medlen has to come up. In 138 innings in 2012, and coming off of Tommy John surgery, the 27 year old toasted opposing hitters, holding them to a meager .208 AVG against and owning a 1.57 ERA. Needless to say, Kris Medlen is not that good. Sorry Braves fans, Medlen is not the second coming of Sandy Koufax, his 2012 is just a statistical aberration. He may very well end up an above average pitcher in this league, but he certainly is not the greatest arm the sport has ever seen. Paul Maholm is the definition of average: he'll give you some good starts, he'll give you some bad ones...it's all about taking the good with the bad, the sour with the sweet. Teheran is an intriguing prospect who hasn't exactly set the world on fire with his minor and major league statistics. How he fares will significantly bolster the Braves campaign to win the division, even if he can only hold down the fort until Beachy returns.

Yes, the Braves are dangerous on paper. Yes, they are a sexy team to like. I find that they have too many question marks, and are too likely not to capitalize on their immense talent to actually contend for the division in 2013. I could see them winning 84 games and missing the playoffs just as easily as they could win 90+ and run away with the Wild Card again. The Braves have one of the best 1-6/7 players in the league, but in Baseball 8-25 are just as critical. They'll need a lot to break right for them. I don't see it happening.

THIRD PLACE: Philadelphia Phillies
Projected Win-Loss Record? 87-75

Key Additions: Ben Revere, Michael Young, John Lannan

Key Departures: Placido Polanco, Ty Wiggington, Juan Pierre

The Word:

The Phillies are an interesting case study. They have some of the best players in the National League, but they are also one of the five oldest teams in all of Baseball. Age and injuries hurt them in 2012, as Ryan Howard and Chase Utley missed significant time due to injuries, and Roy Halladay, though spent a few weeks on the DL, pitched like a homeless man's Barry Zito (i.e. not well), and not the Cy Young caliber pitcher we have grown accustomed to watching.

Old Baseball players are a lot like old actors. Baseball players age and decline in skill to the point that they play like caricatures of their former self; actors age and decline in attractiveness to the point that they actually look like caricatures. Baseball players take human growth hormone to stay relevant; actors inject themselves with botox to look young.

The 2013 Phillies are a team full of old-ass hollywood actors. When I would watch them several years ago, I can remember thinking "damn these guys are unstoppable...they could win the division forever..." It was like watching Robert De Niro and Al Pacino in Heat and thinking they were going always going to make good movies. In 2012 we realized this had to end. The Phillies are getting old and are no longer the dominant team they once were. De Niro and Pacino aren't the same actors either. You looked up and De Niro was in Little Fockers and New Year's Eve; Pacino wasn't doing that much better, collecting paychecks for films like The Son of No One and Jack and Jill. Suddenly your opinion of these actors changed completely; suddenly, the Phillies are old and can't find their old form.

The offense here is okay. Howard and Utley remain key components, whose strong production is necessary for the Phillies to make a playoff push. Just as important, however, are the role players. Delmon Young (the bain of every Tigers' fan's existence), Jimmy Rollins (at this point in his career), Michael Young, and Carlos Ruiz, need to produce for the Phil's for them to have a shot at the Wild Card.

The pitching seems poised to rebound from a tough 2012. Their "Three Aces" weren't at full strength last season but are certainly talented enough to keep this team in contention. Though the window for this team is shrinking, and rapidly, there is still enough in Philly to make a run at the playoffs. Division title? No. Wild Card? Why not.

FOURTH PLACE: New York Mets
Projected Win-Loss Record? 72-90

Key Additions: Shaun Marcum, Travis d'Arnaud, John Buck

Key Departures: R.A. Dickey, Mike Pelfrey, Scott Hairston

The Word:

I have a classmate who is a die-hard Mets fan. I know this because he actually wears his Mets jersey's in public- other Mets fans are too ashamed to do this. I was talking to him about the season the other day, and what kind of chances he felt the Mets had this season. He told me that "if we can find a way to make it into third place the season will be a success."

Mets fans. They're not really sure what is going on. They need things like this to tell them how to feel. "Do not expect to win a World Series," the article says. "The Mets will probably not."

The Mets are really no where close to competing in this division. Shaun Marcum, Matt Harvey, Dillon Gee, and Jon Niese are an intriguing No's. 1-4 of a pitching staff, though not exactly frightening. Johan Santana is healthy as of this writing, but at some point this season he is going to get hurt. It's just a fact. The more he is able to pitch in 2013 the better the Mets will be, but even with his help the Mets just aren't close to winning more games than they lose.

There are maybe 3 or 4 offenses worse than the Mets in all of Baseball (maybe...). David Wright, Adam Dunn 2.0   Ike Davis, and Travis d'Arnaud are the only three hitters who could find starting positions elsewhere, but that's the optimist in me talking.

Good news for the Mets is that they are one of the youngest teams in Major League Baseball, which bodes well for their future success- assuming, of course, that the young players they do have can contribute in the show. Bad news for the Mets, however, is that they are going to lose a whole 'lotta games before they win a whole 'lotta games.

No one cares about the playoffs anyway, right Mets fans?

FIFTH PLACE: Miami Marlins
Projected Win-Loss Record? 56-106

Key Additions: Placido Polanco, Juan Pierre, Jon Rauch

Key Departures: Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Heath Bell, Fans of the Miami Marlins

The Word:

Not since 1977 have we seen one man blow up a core quite like Jeffrey Loria, the Owner of the Marlins (and that was Luke Skywalker in Star Wars). His incompetence is mind-boggling. He wrote a letter to Miami Marlins fans, the half-dozen who still remain, in a recent issue of the Miami Herald. The quotes are literally priceless. He writes: "The controversial trade we made with the Toronto Blue Jays was approved by Commissioner Bud Selig and has been almost universally celebrated by baseball experts outside of Miami for its value." Almost being the operative word. It was almost universally celebrated, but instead it wasn't. Marlins fans were insulted (like 5 people signed up for season tickets this season as a result), and talking heads were confused. If you say "Jeffrey Loria" to any informed baseball fan he will immediately cuss him out and wonder when he is running for President (alas, Loria is probably too old to make a run in 2016).

Behind Houston, the Marlins are the second youngest team in Baseball. That's a good thing for the future. Also good for the future is that according to MLBNetwork the Marlins have 6 of the Top 100 prospects (tied for the highest number). Jeffrey Loria likely knows that prospects always always work out, so even though dedicated baseball fans would struggle to name six Marlins, they are going to contend VERY SOON.

Yes Marlins fans (and Miami residents), Mr. Loria did raise your taxes to help pay for his monstrosity of a stadium-going so far as to add the aesthetically pleasing aquarium and this thing- so you may not exactly have "disposable income," but you are going to want to get season tickets. And soon before they run out. Who doesn't want to watch the Marlins loose 100+ games?

On a more serious note we, as baseball fans, are watching the wasted years of one of baseball's best young hitters. Giancarlo Stanton has been left for dead by Marlins ownership, thrashing around in pain like a fish out of water. As a baseball fan, I will be rooting for a Stanton trade for two reasons: he deserves better than the despicable Jeffrey Loria (who actually told Jose Reyes to buy a house right before trading him to Toronto). And two, because the Marlins then could lose more than 120 games this season, breaking the modern day record for futility. It's the Michael Jordan school of ownership; if you are going to suck why not be historically awful?

The ball is in your court, Mr. Loria.

Oh, and if you want to read his letter.

Life After RG3

Whether consciously or not, you were a fan of the 2012-2013 Washington Redskins. You probably jumped on the bandwagon like every other person with two eyes and a heart. Well, let me be the first to congratulate you on a choice well made. You could have been a Indianapolis Colts fan, riding the tide of emotion to the Playoffs. You could have been You could have been a New Orleans Saints fan, upset with Roger Goodell over the Bounty Scandal, but happy the lights in the Superdome "mysteriously" went out during the Super Bowl. You could have even been a Dallas Cowboys fan, stuck wondering when Jerry Jones will let someone with "General Manager skills," you know, be General Manager. (But seriously, if you are a Cowboys fan get out. I don't want you to read my column. Your click doesn't mean that much to me anyway).

Chances are good, however, that you were a Redskins fan.

You watched game highlights on Monday's long enough to make it past the Tim Tebow- Mark Sanchez soap opera, and onto the Redskins highlights. You came to see if Robert Griffin III played well, you stayed because he did. Your mouth hung open while you watched him run, stupefied at how fast he really was. You had more than one conversation about a RG3-Usain Bolt race, perhaps knowing that RG3 could never win, but setting aside money just in case the event was broadcast on pay-per-view. You watched the Redskins win six straight games and capture the NFC East Division title; you maybe also noticed that RG3 was far away from 100% during the season's final games. 

You identified RG3 as the most exciting player in the NFL- with apologies to Adrian Peterson in Minnesota- and you loved to watch him play football. Your identity became linked with the Redskins. You were more than just the fan of your team this year, you were a football fan, and RG3 was the best football player you could have watched. You watched the Redskins make the playoffs, and you saw how well RG3 was progressing with his LCL injury. You told all your buddies that the Redskins were going to beat the Seattle Seahawks in the Wild Card Game. You watched the game with interest, ready for that moment/play/event you were never going to forget.

And then it happened.

You probably even remember where you were.   

I was at UVa Men's Basketball game against UNC in Charlottesville when every living Washington Redskins fan collectively swore out loud. The 3000 or so people who had arrived early to the game exhaled one heart broken expletive. I've been dumped by several girls in my life, but this injury felt, like, a million times worse.

Forget about the rest of the game, forget about the rest of the season, Redskins fans were thinking about forgetting the next few seasons, too. 

According to reports doctors expect a "full recovery" from Griffin and set his time table from surgery to around 6-8 months.

According to RG3 he expects to play football in 2013-2014. Telling Twitter: "Thank you for your prayers and support. I love God, my family, my team, the fans, & I love this game. See you guys next season."

I, however, am not so certain. This is Griffin's second ACL tear in his right knee, and for a player who predicates much of his success on his running ability, this is sure to hamper his mobility. Even if he does come back in time for Training Camp and the Pre-Season, it's likely that he is not the same player he was before the surgery. Let's say he can do the same things physically- a statement most conservatives would view as a stretch- his style of play will have to change.

No longer can he afford to take unnecessary hits, nor can he allow 320 pound monsters to hit him with such force. The days of the designed run for RG3 are likely over. It is likely that he will retain the threat of mobility, but that pistol offense that the Redskins run? It's going to change. It has to. 

Is his running ability really worth risking his body to more injury? No. Especially not with the success of stationary, or even slightly mobile quarterbacks. RG3 is an accomplished drop-back quarterback in his own right. He threw five interceptions, fewest in the NFL, and ranked both third and fourth respectively in QB Rating and Completion Percentage. These numbers are as much a testament to his ability as a passer as they are to the system in which he played. That pistol triple option killed defenses last season (watch this) and accounted much for the success of the Redskins running attack. It also directly affected the passing game as well, as the threat of the run froze defenses, allowing receivers to find open spaces against stationary defenders.

It's possible that ACL reconstruction technology has improved recently, and that is how we can justify the success of Adrian Peterson and Jamal Charles. It is also possible that every body is different and what one experiences may not be the same for others. Adrian Peterson has fans thinking that he is the example of the new normal in ACL surgeries, when he could simply just be an outlier. There are more examples of Running Backs breaking down after ACL tears than doing what Peterson did. Quarterback is a much less demanding position, but infinitely more important to an offense. RG3 may come back to be the same player he was in 2012. He likely won't.

Without him the Redskins are an average team at best. Kirk Cousins played well enough in a small sample size in 2012, but too small to pass adequate judgement on his future as an NFL Quarterback. The defense is a rather unspectacular unit, above average against the run, but one of the worst against the pass. Help may not be on the horizon either, as the Redskins were forced to trade their First Round pick in the upcoming 2013 Draft to the St. Louis Rams for the rights to Griffin.

If Griffin is able to play in 2013-2014 I am cautious about the Redskins chances. If he can't play? Well, the Redskins chances teeter near bottom of the barrel. You may have to find a new favorite team in 2013.

Please watch your step as you exit the bandwagon.



Erik Payne lives in McLean, Virginia and was born months after the Redskins last Superbowl victory. Coincidence? Hopefully not. He has written for the Cavalier Daily and other websites.

State of the Wizards

I can't remember the last time I wrote about the Washington Wizards. That fact is probably more of a reflection upon the success of the Redskins (and how much fun they were to talk about), rather than the  sad state of the basketball franchise in our nation's capital.

Things were "good" for a few moments in recent weeks. John Wall- our lord and savior- has returned from his mysterious knee injury. The Wizards won four of his first six games, until, in typical Wizards fashion, they failed to adapt to, you know, other teams adapting to them.

John Wall likes to push the tempo offensively. Player X grabs the defensive rebound, slings the ball to Wall who takes off like a rocket towards the opposing rim. Wall is one of the NBA's fastest players from one end of the court to the other, and when the opposing defense doesn't get back to slow Wall its a relatively easy two points for Washington.

Problem is that if you and I both can see this, NBA coaches can definitely see this. And that's essentially what happened in the Philadelphia game on January 30th. John pushed the ball like he does and, instead of weaving through players jogging back on defense, he was met with pressure. John Wall apparently doesn't deal well with pressure.

At Philadelphia he shot 3-12 for 9 points, chipping in 6 assists and 5 turnovers. Most of Wall's value lies with his explosiveness and ability to attack the rim and get high-percentage looks. Thus far in 2013, Wall shoots 63% at the rim and 31% from everywhere else- both on a career high pace.

The team only scored 84 points in the loss at Philly, their second lowest point total since John Wall's return. If defenses are going to adapt to Wall's transition inklings, the Wizards are going to need to adapt themselves. Eat or be eaten as it were.

Published in a January 31st Washington Post article, Martell Webster harps on the importance of adaptation. "That's the way this league is. It's all about adjustments...Teams are going to get a whiff of your game plan and they're going to try to do everything they can to deter you." Now that teams know that the Wizards like to run teams will game-plan to stop it. And while the Wizards by no means should give up this aggressive style of play (they're young in attacking positions), they do need to make a better effort in diversifying their scoring ability.

Even with the return of John Wall, the Wizards still offer opponents the worst offense in the NBA. They are dead last in points-per-game (91.3) and field goal percentage (42.2%), and are in the bottom 10 in 3pt%, free-throw%, and turnovers. Not generally considered the ingredients of winning basketball. Indiana's offense has been equally anemic but they give up the second fewest points.

If it can be said that they have one, the Wizards saving grace might just be their defense. They allow 96.1 points-per-game, tied for 8th best in the league. Amazingly, it seems, the Wizards are able to keep games close and give themselves the opportunity to win late. Trevor Ariza and Emeka Okafor lead the way on defense, limiting opposing wings and attackers. John Wall is a plus defender who is be and athletic enough to bully around point guards, while everyone else does nothing. Jan Vesely plays "Hack-a-Shaq" with his defensive match-ups, and Jordan Crawford looks like he is guarding Manti Te'o's girlfriend on most possessions (and by that I mean he guards nobody).

The Wizards are closer to mediocrity than people think. Since Wall's return the Wiz are 6-5. Are they going to make the playoffs? Not likely. But with all their pieces healthy it is not inconceivable that they post a winning- or close to it- record in the second half of the season. The issue, as always, has been the offense.

The Wizards half court offense is a disaster. They are like Lindsay Lohan Level when it comes to discipline. Jordan Crawford is a black hole (once you give him the ball you aren't seeing it again that possession) and their bigs, minus the seldom used Trevor Booker and Jan Vesely, are slow. Okafor, especially recently, has shown signs of competence, averaging 13.4 points and 14.6 rebounds in his last five games. But, as a whole, this unit does not offer much offense. (I'm big on Kevin Seraphin, but he is a defensive liability and therefore doesn't play the minutes his offense would justify).

Anyway, for the Wizards to remain competitive they must improve their half court sets. Transition offense is a key component for many contending teams (i.e. the Thunder), but a large percentage of a teams' offense comes from set plays. The Wizards have a capable creator in John Wall (how capable is a topic for another day) and shooters in Bradley Beal and Webster who can spread the floor. They may not have talent enough to score in the 90's consistently- SHABAZZ 2014- but if John Wall is they player many think he is half court sets wouldn't look this difficult. Part of this disconnect in the half court must be blamed on coach Randy Whittman, a career winner only 32% of the time, who struggles to coach basketball players. If the Wizards could just play more disciplined, and maybe find some more reliable scorers, this offense could improve.

Then again, is second-to-last really that much better than last?

Why We Don’t Play “What If” in D.C.

First an aside: sorry I have been gone so long, loyal readers, I have spent the better part of the last three weeks I have been locked in a dark Pakistani room while Jason Clarke assaulted my body, mind, and spirit, trying to get me to talk. Unless he wanted me to analyze some obscure “classic” work of literature (I’m pretty confident I know everything about “Pride and Prejudice” at this point in my life- one of the many marketable skills of an English major) or give my opinion on the RGIII injury, I don’t think I had anything to offer him.

Plus, no way he’s getting me to break. I can photosynthesize my own energy like a plant.

What I want to talk about today is not Zero Dark Thirty, nor is it any other Oscar-worthy films that I had high hopes for but ultimately disliked (Django Unchained), I want to talk about Bleacher Report.

I like Bleacher Report not just usually, but most of the time. I find that they have good writers and interesting articles. So naturally while making my rounds of the Internet (it goes: e-mail, Grantland, Yahoo!, BR, ESPN, CNN) I came across an interesting little article (read it here) grading the Redskins draft in hindsight. Grading a draft in retrospect is a fun little exercise, especially when you can make fun of Eagles fans. But one year later? Seems a little too soon. The author does call it a “way-too-early review” of the 2012 Draft (an understatement considering the ink on the 2012 season has barely dried), but my issue goes further than simply grading Alfred Morris an “A+” draft pick.

The author suggests in the article an alternate reality. One in which the Redskins do not take RGIII, keep the draft picks they traded in order to land the No. 2 pick, and instead use the No. 6 selection.

The ‘Skins then select Morris Claiborne with the 6^th pick and select Russell Wilson with the 3^rd Round pick (would have been 69^th, we traded down to 71^st). (The Redskins selected Josh LeRibeus with the 71^st.)

Here is my issue with this: it’s fine to say “Alfred Morris as a 6^th Round pick? Wow what a great draft selection.” But when you start saying things like “Alfred Morris was a 6^th Round pick? Why didn’t everyone take him?” things become muddled, and your opinions as a sports fan slip further away from reality.

When you start playing that what if game, well, that’s when things get dangerous. What if the Redskins hadn’t traded for the No. 2 pick, selected Morris Claiborne, and then selected Russell Wilson?

First of all, if we’re being honest with ourselves, the Redskins wouldn't have done that. We were always down for RGIII. And now that we know that we can begin.

Morris Claiborne was going to be a Cowboy. If you paid ANY amount of attention to Draft coverage last year you knew that the Cowboys needed secondary help, badly. However, they weren't going to get it with that 14^th pick. The best secondary players: Claiborne, Mark Barron, and Stephon Gilmore, were locked in as Top-10 guys. EVERYONE knew the Cowboys were moving up to get one of the three, we just didn’t know where. If the Redskins keep that No. 6 pick the Top-5 changes, but rather unpredictably.

I’d propose a what if game myself, just to prove my point, but it strikes me as hypocritical. So I won’t.

In 2011 Dallas’s defense ranked league average or worse in every major statistical category. Their pass defense was horrendous, the Rob Ryan led unit hemorrhaged yards through the air. After they ditched Terrence Newman in the off-season they were in need of a Cornerback. Jerry Jones decided they were getting Morris Claiborne, and when Jerry Johnson wants something he gets it. Thank goodness for capitalism.

The Redskins needed- and still need- help in the secondary so Mark Barron wouldn't have been an outrageous selection for them at No. 6. They also desperately needed a Quarterback, and though unlikely that RGIII would have fallen to them, there were no other Quarterbacks worthy of a Top-10 pick. The author of the article suggests that the Redskins could have taken Russell Wilson at No. 6? Are you kidding me?

Russell Wilson was not a prospect. He was a draftable player who many thought was mature beyond his years, but not the bona fide stud he played like at times in 2012. At the NFL Draft Combine Wilson was given a grade of 68.5 out of 100, a number categorizing him as a “Draftable Player.”

The categorization defines him as: “A prospect with the ability to make a team as a backup/role player.”

Mike Mayock was high on Wilson, shouting at us through dangerously intelligible lisp , “I can’t tell you how much I like this kid…Not only can he be a competent back up and change-of-pace quarterback, but I think someday he can be a starting-quality player.” 

Basically the scouts hedged their bets. He could become a starter, but also might not. Gee, thanks. Pretty sure everyone fits this category, though. Should I take him instead of RGIII?

Short answer? No.

We know the pedigree by now. Heisman, 4.4 speed, smart, amiable, marketable (he's the only reason I eat Subway). He was graded as a 95, an impact player with the “ability/intangibles to become a Pro Bowl player.” 95 is the cut off point between “Immediate Starter” and “Future Hall of Famer,” and also the second best grade doled out in 2012 (behind Andrew Luck's 97).

Transport yourself to April 2012 for a moment. Had you suggested Russell Wilson was a better draft pick than RGIII not only would you have been given a pink slip, you would have jumped by Bogs and "the sisters." (Wait, my bad, that's from "Shawshank Redemption").

From our perspective today, January 27^th, it’s easy to write off the Redskins decision to select Robert Griffin III. His health is in flux and it is unclear when (or if) he will return to his pre-injury level of effectiveness. He is a Pro-Bowl caliber player when healthy, but even RGIII optimists are worried about his knee.

But let’s be clear about one thing: RGIII at his best is better than Russell Wilson at his best. Wilson plays for a better team and has a Top-5 defense to protect his leads; Robert Griffin III’s defense (at full strength) is slightly better than league average. Isolate these players individually, however, and you would be remiss to pick Wilson.

Wilson’s best qualities, the ones everyone raves about, are his speed and his intangibles (leadership, make-up, etc). RGIII has those same qualities and they are better. His speed is superior to Wilson’s, and his leadership is close to Ray Lewis Level in terms of effectiveness. He put the city of D.C. on his back like Atlas and gave Football starved fans in the District something to nix the hangover from Baseball season.

I acknowledge its only been a year, but when you think D.C. Football you think RGIII; when you think Seattle Football I’m not sure you think Russell Wilson. D.C. fans are crazy about RGIII in ways that border on unhealthy. I haven’t done it, but if you polled residents of our nation’s capital I'm confident he would win in an election against Obama. He has become a mythic cult figure in the city, appealing to every citizen regardless of demographic. Bryce Harper is a polarizing figure, so is (to a rapidly declining extent) Alex Ovechkin. Neither is as big as Robert Griffin. EVERYONE loves the guy.

For years Redskins fans have been caught between the Scylla and Charybdis of Quarterbacks: Rex Grossman and John Beck. Enter: Robert Griffin III. He brought us to the playoffs, and he infected us with his charm. He freed us from watching horrible Football. He, almost single-handedly, rejuvenated Football in D.C.

Is Russell Wilson is a nice player? Sure. Do Redskins fans wish that they selected him instead of shelling out the draft picks it took to get Griffin? No. Please don’t ask us again.

We have a lot of pride in the District; we also get defensive when people who know nothing about our teams interject their opinions. Today, I’m taking Robert Griffin. Tomorrow? I’m taking Robert Griffin. I’m already pissed that the Capitals stink, don’t make me go Wayne Brady.

A Wild 48 Hours

RGIII Injury

After a quick 14-0 start by the Redskins, things went downhill once RGIII tweaked his already tender knee in the first half. Many fans felt like Coach Shanahan should have put Kirk Cousins into the game in order to pull out the victory, however, RGIII demanded that he stay in the game and Shanny did not disagree. As we all know, this turned out disastrously with RGIII tearing his LCL- and possibly his ACL- when he could not get to a low snap and crumpled to FedEx field’s embarrassingly terrible conditions.

While I believe that Shanny needed to take Robert out of the game regardless of what the player was telling him, I have never played football and do not know what it is like to feel the need to give everything you have in order to win a playoff game. Robert knew the risk he was taking with his body and felt that it was well worth it. Hopefully the surgery that takes place tomorrow (Jan. 9th) will confirm the hope that the ACL injury shown on his MRI is from the original injury when he was at Baylor and he will be healthy and at full speed for the start of next season. However, if things do not work out that way, it appears as though the selection of Kirk Cousins in last year’s draft will certainly be a great one. 

Emergence of Bradley Beal

I was one of the many fans who, once hearing of the Bradley Beal & Chris Thornton for James Harden deal, laughed out loud about the shear ineptitude of the Wizards franchise. If Ted Leonsis isn’t willing to fire GM Ernie Grunfeld for his inability to draft players or do anything well other than make trades only after his original plan falls apart, or spend the money necessary to put a playoff-caliber team on the court, then why should I be asked to support the team? After what I saw last night and the past few games from Beal, however, I have begun to change my tune. The rookie from University of Florida has dropped 20+ points in three of his last five games and has started to shoot the ball with confidence. For one of the youngest players in this league, it is great to see him finally start to come into his own. Hopefully he will build on the past few games and start to play as more of a leader and go-to-scorer for this young Wizards squad.

Resigning of Adam LaRoche

According to a person with knowledge of the deal, which LaRoche has signed after passing a physical Tuesday (Jan 8th), he will earn at least $24 million over two years. He will make $10 million in 2013 and $12 million in 2014. The contract includes a mutual option for a third year worth $15 million. If the option is not picked up, however, LaRoche will receive a $2 million buyout. This is a great deal for the Nats because it locks up their Gold Glove first baseman for two years, ensuring that the lefty will remain a constant threat in the middle of the Nats lineup for a few more seasons. In addition, the option for a third year allows for Ryan Zimmerman to move to first base while Anthony Rendon takes over at third base (unless the Nats end up trading Danny Espinosa, in which case Rendon could play second base). Now that the LaRoche signing is complete, GM Mike Rizzo must trade away Michael Morse, a player who no longer has a place in the lineup after the offseason addition of Denard Span. Hopefully the Nats will receive a pitching prospect (a starter) and an established reliever (desperately needed) in return for the slugger. While LaRoche may not be able to repeat last season's offensive production, his elite first base defense will keep him a vital piece as the Nats look to defend their NL East title in 2013.