Wizards Win!!

I don't have time for an actual post about this occasion, as I am currently writing a senior thesis on baseballs 2013 Hall of Fame class, so don't mistake the brevity for lack of excitement. It seemed like the first win was never going to happen, but then the Portland Trailblazers stepped into the Phone Booth (the Verizon Center…keep up) and were the only thing cooler than cool. And now the Wizards are 1-12(!!!!). 

Things can only go up from here if you are the Wizards, so let’s hope for a few more wins more frequently. If I have to wait 13 more games for the next Wizards victory…something about Wayne Brady doing something? I can’t remember.

I’ll leave you with a quote from the most powerful writer in Hollywood today: “There’s no [win] like the first. –Nicholas Sparks.

Nicholas Sparks is never wrong.

The 2012-2013 Washington Wizards > 2009-2010 New Jersey Nets?

Randy Wittman is sad

I watched the end of the Wizards play the Hawks last night. Whether or not we should have won this game isn’t debatable. We should have, but not because of a Martell Webster buzzer beater after time expired. We should have one that game because we played better than the Hawks for most of the night.

Nenê was back yesterday for the first time this season. It would have been easy to write the narrative where a crappy Wizards team starts to win after getting its, arguably, second best player back. And I'm sure that everyone from the Washington Post or Times was putting together a story just like that. But then Kyle Korver hit a three point shot from what memory tells me was half court (though it was probably 3ft behind the line) and put the Wizards to bed.

To say that Nenê’s foul on Devin Harris with 3.7 seconds left in the fourth was what caused the Wizards to lose this game is unfair. To completely ignore it, however, also cannot be done. The Wizards were in a position to win this game until they fouled the Hawks twice in the last five seconds of the game and essentially handed the Hawks a shot at overtime. It’s this undisciplined play that Wizards fans have become accustomed to seeing thus far in 2012, and what accounts for the Wizards league rankings of 22^nd in turnovers and 26^th in fouls per game (22.7).

To say that the Wizards are unbelievably difficult to watch and support on a nightly basis is an understatement. But that is the nature of fandom. You take the sweet with the bitter and the good with the bad. The 2012-2013 Wizards are bad. They are 0-10 right now, and have become just the 13^th team in NBA history to begin a season with 10 straight losses. The New Jersey Nets currently hold the record for the longest losing streak to begin a season with 18 straight, which begs the question for Wizards fans: Can we break this record? (Do we want this record?)

It is (probably) not a record that the Wizards want to be associated with. But then again, as I’ve said before, in the NBA you either compete or you tank. (#ShabazzSweepstakes) The Wizards are well on their way to tanking and, as a Wizards fan, it feels right. The Wizards have a few pieces, though they still need a few things, and the only way they are going to get them is through the draft. (Or Free Agency but who really wants to come play for the Wizards?)

But for now all we have to occupy ourselves with is the passionate pursuit of imperfection. Can the Wizards break the Nets streak of 18 games in a row? Let’s look:

11/24 vs Charlotte: Can we win this game? Absolutely. We lost to them earlier in the season and they have nearly matched their 2011-2012 win total, but their team is definitely not more skilled than the Wizards and this game will be relatively close. Do I think we should win this game? Yes. Will we? Ehh…probably not.

11/26 vs San Antonio: One of my friends likes to say that he is offended how much A.J. Price plays for an NBA team. I am not quite that offended, though if you think he can do anything against Tony Parker you are wrong. The Spurs have one of the best offenses in the league, the best coach in the league, and a scarily deep bench. The Wizards have none of these things. Blow-out-city.

11/28 vs Portland: They really aren’t that good. Last night they played all 13 guys who suited up, which tells me that Terry Stotts (the head coach) has no idea how to utilize his team. The Wizards have similar problems. Here is a Randy Wittman quote after the Wizards lost to the Pacers on 11/19: “I don’t know who to start, who to play, who not to play…” I may not be involved in professional basketball on a personal level but even I can tell you that those words don't sound good. (#ShabazzSweepstakes) The Blazers match-up really well against the Wizards, and though they may not have an identity yet, the Wizards aren't going to do much in Portland. Sorry.

11/30 at New York: The Knicks are actually good this season but they have one of the NBA’s shortest benches (Rasheed Wallace plays 15+ minutes a night!). The talent level  on these two teams are not as far apart as it may seem- forget about Carmelo- so I think that this game is likely to be more competitive than people think. If Carmelo plays an inefficient game (not likely) the Wizards can win, otherwise the Knicks just score too much for the Wizards basement dwelling offense to keep up.

12/4 vs Miami: Maybe if Lebron gets the flu. I hear it’s going around.

12/7 at Atlanta: We just lost a heartbreaker to these fools. If we don’t get our first win from Charlotte this is definitely going to be win numero uno. Or the Wizards could collapse down the stretch and lose again. Really the 2012-2013 Wizards are confusing. They are good for most of the game and fade down the stretch, or they start slow and work their way back only to blow it at the end. The 2012 Wizards are like Meek Mill’s newest CD. You go in thinking that it might be okay because you heard that song “Amen” and it was pretty good. But then you hear the rest of the album and decide you should have bought Kendrick Lamar’s CD instead. Stupid is as stupid does I guess.

12/8 vs Golden State: If Golden State was in the Eastern Conference they would be a Playoff team. They aren’t. What they are is young. They shoot threes; they grab some rebounds, and they have a pretty terrible defense. The Wizards defend the three point shot like able bodied NBA players should (top 5 in three point percentage against), which bodes well for their chances here. The Warriors also don’t have a dynamic Point Guard, something that gives the Wizards problems. If you don’t think that they are going to beat the Bobcats or the Hawks, this is going to be the Wizards first win. It’s too good of a match-up for the Wizards not to win this game. But I feel like I’ve said this before…

12/11 at New Orleans: The Hornets are pretty terrible. If Anthony Davis comes back from his ankle injury in time for this game then the Wizards chances of winning are diminished, but not significantly so. Subtracting Davis, the only Hornet who would start for another team is Ryan Anderson, and that team probably wouldn’t be very good. I think the Wizards win this game, but at some points I wonder if the Wizards are really bad enough to lose all of these games. Then I crack open the Sam Adams and I don't care as much. 

12/12 at Houston: The NBA’s 4^th leading scorer (for now), and 4^th leading rebounder receive paychecks from the Rockets and yet they are 5-7. This team is big; they can shoot threes, and are wildly inconsistent. The Wizards are going to lose this game because no one on the Wizards can stop James Harden, but by no means will they be overmatched.  

My prediction for this stretch is 3-6. We are not going to break that Nets record this year, no sir. I still think that we are headed for that No. 1 pick in June, which is good because my Shabazz Muhammad UCLA jersey is already in the mail.

Redskins-Cowboys Preview

I thought about writing a Redskins-Eagles recap. It wouldn't have been in good taste so I decided to shelve it. The pen is mightier than the sword, you know? I was going to compare the Eagles Offensive Line to the Convicts' in "The Longest Yard" (You Tube doesn't have the clip, but it's the part near the end when Adam Sandler's teammates realize that he is throwing the game and refuse to block for him), but I felt like too many people were already going to criticize the Eagles and I didn't want to be one of those people. I want to take the high road. I feel kind of bad for them. The Eagles are that team- and there is one every season- whose players quit on its coach before ultimately quitting on each other. Bets going into the season would have picked the players on the Kansas City Chiefs to quit on Romeo Crennel, the Eagles players have stepped their game up (or down) to a whole new level. I think when your fans make a video like this, it really speaks to how much of a dissent there is against Andy Reid in Philadelphia.

So, yeah, the Redskins dominated a rookie Quarterback last week and won handedly. Whatever. The Redskins play the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday. That's really the only game that matters.

Dallas is 5-5 on the season, and in the midst of the NFC playoff race. A win for the Redskins would be sweet because not only would it hurt the Cowboys chances of making the Playoffs, it would significantly bolster the Redskins'. As it stands right now the 'Skins are two games out of the division lead and the New York Giants are reeling. They had lost two games in a row before a much needed bye week last week, and now they must deal with the (red hot) Green Bay Packers on Sunday Night Football. Tom Coughlin is 13-21 in November and Eli Manning has zero touchdown passes and four interceptions in his last three games so the Giants lead in the division may not be as strong as many think. If the Redskins win this game, and then next week against the Giants on Monday Night Football, it puts them in a very favorable position in the division. Will it happen? Well, they definitely need to beat the Cowboys first.

The Redskins just snapped their three game losing streak by taking the Eagles behind a woodshed and beating them to the tune of 31-6, while the Cowboys backed into a win against the Cleveland Browns in an overtime game that they almost certainly should have lost. So though one may consider the Cowboys "hot," they are only hot inasmuch as winning two in a row against Eagles and Browns makes one hot, which is to say that the Cowboys aren't very hot. The Cowboys record against Playoff teams this year is 1-5, with their only win coming in the first game of the season against the Giants. Otherwise they have beaten three of the five worst teams (Panthers, Eagles, Browns) and squeaked one out against a pre-Muscle Hamster Buccaneers. There is something to be said about beating the teams you are supposed to beat, but at some point in order to prove they are a Playoff team they will need to actually beat a Playoff team.

Playing Thursday games presents a series of challenges to NFL teams. For one, it's a short week and teams do not have a lot of time to prepare for each other. But if this is a disadvantage for one, it's also a disadvantage for the other. More significant are the impacts on player safety and injuries that these short weeks have on the players. They are fatigued, and when they are fatigued they play sloppy; when they play sloppy their technique suffers; when their technique suffers players get hurt. Thursday afternoon Thanksgiving games have been a tradition for many years now, and the players really enjoy them (Darren Woodson said as much this morning on Sportscenter), but Thursday night games every week... NFL games are brutal contests where our country's strongest and most athletic men literally clobber each other for money. Shortening the time in-between games makes injuries that much more likely and, to some extent, expected.

Injuries will always be a factor in NFL games, but on Thursdays these issues tend to compound and result in lack luster games that become battles of attrition. This short week will likely affect the Redskins more than the Cowboys because of pre-existing injury issues. Brandon Meriweather, who had missed the first nine games of the season with a left knee injury, hurt his right knee in the third quarter of the Eagles game. He is likely to play on Thursday but may not be 100%. London Fletcher is more of an issue with his ankle injury and is a game time decision (courtesy of the Washington Post). If these two don't play the Redskins have little chance of stopping the Cowboys offense. Or, I should say, have less of a chance.

The Cowboys rank 7th in the NFL in passing yards per game, while the Redskins give up the 4th most passing yards. If Meriweather doesn't play it could be a long day for the 'Skins secondary, especially if Dez Bryant shows up. Dez Bryant has been a beast for most of the season (57 rec, 735 yards, 4 TD's) but has steppe it up of late, averaging 89 yards over the past four contests and scoring 2 TD's. The Cowboys are going to throw the ball a ton this game, and if DeAngelo Hall plays the way he usually plays (poorly), combined with the rest of this weak secondary the Redskins simply aren't going to win.

The key to this game for either team is going to be turnovers. Tony Romo has thrown 13 interceptions on the season, the third worst in the NFL (only the Chiefs and Philip Rivers have thrown more), and the Cowboys as a team have a -9 turnover differential. The Redskins on the other hand have a differential of +10, one of the best in the NFL. This is due in large part to RG3 taking care of the ball uncharacteristically well for a rookie, having only thrown 3 interceptions on the season.

For the Redskins the game comes down to two things: first, can they pressure Tony Romo? If they can they will hurry his throws and force him into mistakes (remember, the only thing worse than a hurried Tony Romo is a Playoff Tony Romo). And second, Robert Griffin III needs to manage the game effectively. Last week against the Eagles RG3 posted a perfect Passer Rating of 153.8, just the second rookie ever to do so. He threw for 200 yards and 4 touchdowns, and added 84 yards on the ground. If he can come close to duplicating either of these statistics, the 'Skins can cut down and force a few turnovers, and the 'Skins can cut down on their penalty woes (13 for 80 yards), they stand a decent chance of beating the Cowboys and keeping their slim Playoff aspirations alive.

If I was being forced into picking a team I would pick the Cowboys. That being said, I feel pretty strongly about a Redskins upset. Feel free to put all your money on Red.

Hail.

The Case for Adam Laroche

Oscar Gamble once told people: "They don't think it be like it is, but it do." Then the Internet found out and now a google search of that phrase turns up more than 4 billion results in less than half a second. 

I am thinking about Oscar Gamble right now, but not for reasons that can be artistically woven into two thousand words about Adam Laroche. I think I am thinking about Gamble because I stole a pizza from a friend's (but not a friend I value enough not to not steal his pizza) refrigerator right before writing this. I left the kid $7 because I felt bad about stealing an entire Dominoes pizza at three in the morning, though I would much rather have that $7. I don't know whether to call that irony or karma, but either way I lost. 

It's a pepperoni, bacon, and Italian sausage pizza. The first bite tastes a lot like one would expect a cold pizza to taste at three in the morning on a Saturday night: fantastic. (editors note: This pizza was gross)

That has nothing to do with Adam Laroche.

This does:

Okay, so this was 11 days ago.

And this was 9 days ago.

Adam Laroche is a lot like Hansel from Zoolander: he's so hot right now. People want him. We now know that the Texas Rangers and Boston Red Sox have thrown their hats in the ring for Laroche, the best First Baseman in the Free Agent market.

There is a dearth of quality First Basemen in Major League Baseball right now. It's actually pretty ugly. Adam Laroche put up the 4th best WAR of any eligible First Baseman last season, which is incredible when you consider the number of people who didn't consider him a Top 10 First Baseman last year (I'm guilty of this), and probably still wouldn't even after his Gold Glove and Silver Slugger winning 2012 season.

The list of the incredulous includes one Red Sox official who Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports quotes as saying, "Like him, Don't love him." If you remember, Laroche played 6 games with the Red Sox in 2009 before he was traded for Casey Kotchman. It was pretty clear they didn't love him then either. 

For the Rangers, while by no means a foregone conclusion, the chances of Josh Hamilton playing for the Rangers next season are slim. His time in Texas did not end with a bang, nor did it end with a whimper, but with thousands of Rangers fans booing him to no end. (The video of which has apparently vanished from existence. Not unlike the 18 1/2 minutes of the Nixon Tapes. Coincidence?) If the Rangers do indeed cut ties with Hamilton it leaves the Rangers with a pretty big gap in Centerfield that no one on their current roster can fill. They do have some young guys who could play Centerfield (and probably aren't ready), but the Rangers would be better suited to go after Michael Bourn or B.J. Upton in Free Agency to try and recoup some of Hamilton's lost production. I don't think the Rangers go after Laroche, considering they already have three First Basemen on their roster (none of which any other team would want to trade for), when they are already going to overpay for an Outfielder and a Pitcher (I'm obviously assuming this, but after the way their season ended it's a good bet). They are not going to overpay for Laroche too because it just doesn't make sense, they don't need him that much.

Assuming that the Baltimore Orioles learn how to share, the Nationals are in line to make some serious TV money, presumedly tripling the paltry $29 million they made in 2012. But even without this TV money the Nationals aren't hurting financially. Which is important. Considering his age and history of being solid-but-not-this-good, Laroche is likely to command a 3 year deal somewhere in the ballpark of $13-15 million per. The class of Free Agent First Basemen this offseason begins and ends with Adam Laroche, so the Nationals either overpay slightly to bring him back, or they let him walk. There are four ways this situation plays out. In no particular order:

Plan A: Let Laroche walk and plug Michael Morse into First Base. This move severely down grades the Nationals infield defense, while at the same time keeping the offensive production relatively consistent. The Nats would then have to open the pocket book further to seduce a Michael Bourn or other top tier Outfielder to come to D.C. The problem with this is that Bourn (Agent: Scott Boras) knows that every team wants what he has to offer (speed, a totally overrated tool) and will command a long term contract north of $100 million. Quick aside: after this season Stephen Strasburg's contract expires and the Nationals are likely to extend him a contract in the $70/80/90 million range. Why not spend less on Laroche, not totally cripple the Infield defense, sign a better Pitcher (Kyle Loshe) instead of a cheaper one for financial reasons (Ryan Dempster), and then re-up with Strasburg at some point during the season?

Plan B: Let Laroche walk, move Tyler Moore to First Base and overpay for Zack Greinke to the tune of $100 million plus. This way the Nationals can keep Morse in Left Field- where he doesn't belong but where The Nationals are forced to play him- while still adding the Pitcher they need. The problem here is that while Tyler Moore played well in limited action last season, his production over the course of a 162 season is unknown. Trading offense for pitching worked for the 2009 San Francisco Giants (26th in the league in runs) who won the World Series, but as a whole teams that can't score runs don't win games. Of 2012 playoff teams only the Atlanta Braves and Cincinnati Reds fell outside the top 15 in runs scored. The Nationals offense last year was strong, but starting Moore would be a significant downgrade. His triple slash line last season, .263/ .327/ .513/ 156 At Bats, isn't terrible for a spot starter/ pinch hitter. Anyone who watched the Nationals will recognize that he was a solid contributer off the bench. Until he fell apart over the last month of the season, as he hit just .153 in September. Maybe the rigors of a 162 games season caught up to him and he fatigued? or maybe the league figured him out?The reasons for this lack of production are irrelevant, the Nationals make this move if they think that Moore is better than just a solid bench player, but (small sample size noted) 156 At Bats later it doesn't look like he is.

The Zack Greinke move, while interesting, also does not make a ton of sense. He was sporadic for much of last season, posting monthly ERA's of: 3.94, 3.06, 1.70, 5.46, 5.22, and 2.11. His crazy outlier of a 2009 season (2.16 ERA and Cy Young) heavily skews his already mediocre career ERA of 3.77. He is a good pitcher- he strikes out about 8 batters per 9 innings and walks slightly less than a third of them- but he gives up a relatively pedestrian 8.9 hits per 9 as well as oodles and oodles of runs. He has 44 career starts in which he has given up 5 or more runs, representing about 20% of his career starts. Oh he has spent most of his career pitching in the American League that's the reason he gives up so many runs? It's not really like the AL Central is a powerhouse, though it is certainly more potent than the anemic NL Central that ranked three offenses in the bottom 10 of the league in 2011. The same year Greinke posted a 3.83 ERA with the Milwaukee Brewers. Is he talented? Yes, absolutely. He plays professional baseball and I am eating disgusting pizza on a Saturday night. All I am saying is that the Nationals shouldn't pay Zack Greinke the opening weekend of a Tom Cruise movie when the best word to describe his pitching ability is "inconsistent." Doesn't this seem crazy? 

Plan C: Let Laroche walk and call up Anthony Rendon, our top Minor League prospect, to play Third Base and move Ryan Zimmerman to First. This way The Nationals keep Morse, and probably extend his contract at some point during the season (were about to get to this, be patient), while getting younger with one of the best prospects in all of baseball. While this may not be the most likely outcome of Laroche's leaving this offseason, it is, or at the very least should be, the Nationals plan for the future. As much fun as it has been watching Zimmerman's inability to throw the ball to First without a running start, it's pretty clear that his shoulder issues are severe (at this point anonymous people on the Nats message boards are comparing him to Rick Ankiel, so that's not good). Rendon, however, is not ready to contribute at the Major League level. Over four levels last year Rendon hit .233 with 6 home runs and 12 RBI. In AA, where he spent most of his season, he hit .162 in 68 At Bats. Obviously this is a small sample size and chances are just as good that he will perform to his pedigree in 2013, but it likely will happen in the Minors. See you in June July August September, Rendon. 

Plan D: Pay Laroche whatever he wants and then trade Michael Morse for a pitcher. Morse is in his contract year and the Nationals are currently paying him a little over $7 million on the 2 year $10.5 million dollar deal he signed after the 2010 season. 2011 and 2012 were productive seasons for "The Beast," injury issues aside, and his trade stock has never been higher, nor will it ever be again. One more productive season close to his 2010 production (.303/.360/.550, 31 home runs, 95 RBI) and he is going to be in line for a fine pay day by some lucky team. It's just not going to be the Nationals. He is an American League player forced to play defense in the National League, and has caused all kinds of pains for the Nationals with his sloth-like agility. He is going to turn 31 during the season- three years younger than Laroche- but has not shown the consistency in the MLB for the Nationals to go out of their way to resign him to the contract he will likely want (Laroche-like). His value on the open market far outweighs his value to the Nationals. Sure, he is quirky and Nationals fans will miss him, but it's not like they are going to be sitting on the couch eating a carton of ice cream and start to mist up when we remember that invisible bat grand slam or all those low-fives. They will probably just remember this.

It just makes too much sense for the Nationals to do this. They need a Pitcher and an Outfielder (either Laroche or Morse is going to be gone anyway) and Morse can get them the quality of arm, 3rd/4th/5th starter, that they want. Instead of overpaying for Kyle Loshe, the Nationals can take that money and get the Laroche deal done. Then they can go after Bourn, or whoever, and feel confident in their chances in 2013.

We will know more in the coming weeks. The winter meetings are starting soon and players from all over the league are going to be moved. Nationals fans can take solace in the fact that Mike Rizzo is one of the more competent General Managers in baseball (and in Chocolate City- I'm looking at you Bruce Allen) and will make the right decisions. For the Nationals it's trading Morse and resigning Laroche. For me it's putting this pizza away before I eat the whole thing. 

They don't think it be like it is, but it do. 

I think I get it now.

2012 Wizards: A Running Diary

What's been up loyal readers (the 8 of you who seem interested in my poorly constructed sentences and limited vocabulary)? How have you been? How did that thing you had to do last time turn out? It went well/ poorly you say? Congratulations!/ You kinda deserved it... Seriously, welcome back. Please don't leave.

The Wizards lost to the Milwaukee Bucks and Indiana Pacers since we've talked last and are now 0-5 which, if not for the utterly indescribable terribleness that is the Detroit Pistons, would make the Wizards the front runners for worst team in the NBA

The Wizards began last season 0-8 before finally getting that first elusive victory. But this is very much not last years team- in ways I have discussed previously, and in ways that should be obvious to everyone with a set of eyes and a passing interest in basketball. This years team is hard to figure out. The sum of the parts (solid) is not equal to the output (zero wins), though there is reason to believe that the Wizards are close to getting that first win. First, I don't think it's possible for a team to go winless over the course of a season- even though the 2011-2012 Charlotte Bobcats certainly tempted fate. And second, the Wizards haven't actually been playing all that bad.

So what if we are winless. We have played four games against pretty legitimate playoff contenders (Boston, Indiana, Milwaukee) and one game against a much better than we though Cleveland team. We are never going to win the NBA Championship with this group of players, but it is not out of the realm of possibility that we finish 9th or 10th in the Eastern Conference. Top to bottom the Eastern Conference really isn't that good this season. The Heat are the definite favorites to win the title again this year, but if you put me in a dark alley with the Celtics or the Hawks? I just don't think that I am that afraid of them.

We don't match up well with teams that feature explosive combo guards (i.e. Cleveland, Milwaukee) because our starting Point Guard right now, A.J. Price, is small and a defensive black hole. Bradley Beal is more athletic than Price but his best defense is going to be his ability to score more points than his match-up on a consistent basis. John Wall is a good defender, and when he comes back our defense is likely to improve, but the status and nature of his injury is worrisome. Balky knees does not a good basketball player make.

The biggest problem for the Wizards thus far has been their offense. Per Hoopdata the Wizards have the least efficient offense (points scored per 100 possessions) in the NBA this season with 91.3. For reference, the Bobcats efficiency last season? 92.3. Their defense last season was historically bad, but you can't win games if you don't score points, right? With a healthy John Wall this number is likely to improve, and with our defense ranking better than league average there is reason to think our fortunes could change in the coming months.

Or they could change tonight. Tonight (11/13) the Wizards play the Charlotte Bobcats in a game for the ages. The stadium will NOT be filled to full capacity; the only electricity in the building will be coming from the generators housed somewhere underneath the stadium; Michael Jordan's body will be there but his mind will be anywhere else (hopefully he is plotting to destroy Space Jam 2). There might be one hundred people on the planet who watch this game to be entertained, the rest likely due to some work commitment.

The Wizards are going to win this game. They are better than the Bobcats. They play better defense, and while they might not score as well they sure as hell pass and take care of the ball better than the Bobcats. Plus, the Bobcats start Brendan Haywood who we dumped years ago. Advantage Wizards.

The Bobcats are a good match up, on paper, for the Wizards. Kemba Walker, their starting Point Guard is small, an inefficient shooter, and nowhere near explosive enough to cause concern. He scores points like Nick Young or Jordan Crawford score points- if he shoots the ball enough some of them are bound to go in. Jeffrey Taylor, a rookie Shooting Guard has not played enough to get an accurate reed of his abilities (Gerald Henderson is likely to miss some time with a foot injury) but his size at 6-7 could pose match up problems for the 6-3 Beal. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is the X-factor in this game. The Wizards have no one to guard him and if he continues his hot shooting (47% on the season) he will cause the Wizards a great amount of pain. The Wizards big men (Seraphin, Okafor, Booker) are better then Brendan Haywood (!), The Artist Formerly Known as B.J. Mullins (Byron Mullins now), Bismack Biyombo, and Tyrus Thomas. As a whole, the Bobcats aren't that athletic, and don't have the kind of perimeter shooting to cause the Wizards problems.

We are going to win because the Wizards have to be better than the Bobcats. Michael Jordan cannot construct good teams, he can only play for them. We need to beat the Bobcats otherwise my faith in this Wizards team will be severely tested- if not shot. I know that the Wizards are bad, I'm not irrational, but they can't be Bobcat bad, right?

Can we just fast-forward to the June draft?

Bryce Harper: Rookie of the Year

They grow up so fast...

Congratulations to Bryce Harper for winning the 2012 Rookie of the Year Award.

He is the first player in Washington's professional baseball history to win the award (third if you count the Montreal days, which maybe you should?) since the its inception in 1947 (Jackie Robinson).

So, in celebration, enjoy Bryce Harper's 22 career home runs:

See. You. Later.

Hopefully we'll pop some more bubby for Davey Johnson's Manager of the Year Award tomorrow. If not, it's probably totally rational for Nats fans to sign a petition to secede from the MLB. Probably.

Gio Gonzalez, Cy Young?

Every Friday and Saturday morning I wake up too early, fire up the Xbox, and play NCAA Football until my eyes can’t take it anymore. This morning? To be honest, I’m a little hungover. I need to chill out and digest those three slices of pizza I ate last night so I search my Spotify playlist for something. 50 Cent’s Get Rich or Die Trying CD? Yep. It takes me about an hour to work through the CD to get to the song that I actually want to hear: “Wanksta.”

This is my favorite song, so I blast it (more like listen at an appropriate level because my head still hurts) while reading my round of online articles. Then 50 (can I call him that?) raps:

“Damn homie, in high school you was the man, homie /

What the f*&# happened to you?”

I consider the depth of these words while reading that, for the first time, the writers who determine these things posted the finalists for every relevant post-season award. I see that every writer on this particular site picked R.A. Dickey to win the National League Cy Young Award and my thoughts go back to 50 (I’m just going to call him that). Remember when R.A. Dickey was the man in June and essentially right up until the Mets fell apart? Then Sportscenter relegated all R.A. Dickey news to the end of the show, in the 15 seconds usually reserved to Canadian Football League results? Is he going to win the Cy Young? Can he win the Cy Young? Should he win the Cy Young? What about Gio Gonzalez?

 

Let’s play a little game:

Player A: 19-9, 2.78 ERA, 217 Innings, 170 SO, WAR 5.8

Player B: 14-9, 2.53 ERA, 227.2 Innings, 229 SO, WAR 6.3

Player C: 20-6, 2.73 ERA, 233.2 Innings, 230 SO, WAR 5.4

Player D: 21-8, 2.89 ERA, 199.1 Innings, 207 SO, WAR 4.5

Who wins the eye test? Player B right? He was tied for 4th in the league with 6 "tough losses" (a real statistic that I actually did not just make up) which, had his defense/ bullpen not been terrible, shows that he could have had a few more wins. Your taking him. I decided. Congrats, we picked Clayton Kershaw who, according to people who know things, has little to no shot at winning this thing. It is essentially a two dog race between Player C (Dickey) and Player D (Gonzalez).

Looking at these numbers you would probably pick Dickey right? But let us consider the importance of pitching for a winning team. The Mets finished 74- 88, good for 4^th place in the National League East. The Nats finished 98-64, the best record in baseball. Over the course of the season the Nationals pitching staff allowed 594 runs, good for the third fewest in baseball. On September 7^th the Nationals shut down Stephen Strasburg- an event that should of killed the Nationals down the stretch, but didn’t.

On September 7^th the Nationals were 6.5 games ahead of the Braves in the race for the division. No one in D.C. was exactly buying playoff tickets at this point though. At this same point the A’s trailed the Rangers by 4.5 games and in 2011 the Red Sox and Braves each led their Wild Card races by 7 and 6.5 games respectively. What I’m saying is that there was still a lot of baseball left to be played. The Nationals had not locked up the East- not by a long shot.

They booted Strasburg from the rotation. Edwin Jackson started to pitch like Edwin Jackson, posting a 7.92 ERA in September while allowing hitters to hit .317 against him. Jordan Zimmermann, the teams’ most consistent pitcher for much of the season, lost it. In 34.2 September innings his ERA was 4.41. The Nationals pitching staff was falling apart: we were forced into throwing Chien Ming Wang (The Human Batting Practice), and John Lannan just to get through the week. But just when things were looking all kinds of bad Gio Gonzalez stepped in and put the team on his back. Greg Jennings style.

He was 4-1 in September, with a 1.74 ERA, a .171 batting average against and gave up only 6 earned runs. Without him- and the offense actually scoring runs- the Nationals limp into the playoffs, possibly as a Wild Card team.

The Nationals were not a Wild Card team, they were the No. 1 seed in the National League. Résumés for Cy Young's and MVP’s will always be bolstered by playing on a winning team, and rightly so. With notable exceptions (Zach Greinke in 2009, Felix Hernandez in 2010) these major postseason awards are handed out to players who make the playoffs. It’s the biggest knock against Mike Trout’s MVP candidacy this year, and one of the larger factors that will keep him from winning it. Miguel Cabrera also won the Triple Crown… so that probably doesn't help Trout. Gio was very much the ace of the Nationals staff, pitched out of his mind when his team actually needed him to produce and led them to the playoffs. I certainly don’t think that candidates for the Cy Young and MVP should lose votes because they don’t make the playoffs, but those who do lead their teams to the postseason deserve a little more credit.

There are cases when one candidate puts up numbers that are so far superior to others that it would be a travesty if they didn’t win- again those Greinke and Hernandez seasons are the best examples of this- but this is not one of those years. R.A. Dickey had a great statistical season, but not anything that separates him from Gio Gonzalez by any statistical measure. Dickey had more strikeouts, and had a lower ERA, sure; Gio had more wins and opponents hit .20 points worse against him. There's a point to every counter point. The only thing that separates them is that Gio was the ace of the best team in baseball and made the playoffs and, if you want to go there, R.A. Dickey was a better story. (And a fantastic read).

While it is not totally Dickey’s fault that his team made the playoffs, it is Gio’s fault that the Nationals did though. Give the man some props- or a Cy Young?

"Wanksta" faded out to the grittier "Many Men." And I bumped it. Obviously. It's my favorite song.

Lessons Learned: WIzards/ Celtics 11/7

Grab your $3,500 dollar Nike's and lets go back in time.

7:22 3rd Quarter: Rajon Rondo makes a bad pass, Emeka Okafor snags it and whips it to Trevor Ariza. Fast Break.

7:20: Ariza has the ball and is rocketing towards the basket with Bradley Beal, with only Kevin Garnett standing in the way.

D'oh!

7:18: Beal receives the pass and goes up for a contested layup over Garnett who hockey-checks the airborne Beal. Beal with one hand, while floating through the air in slow motion it seems, throws the ball off glass and into the basket. The whistle blows.

AND 1 for Bradley Beal.

The Wizards lead by 4 points.

Plays like this happen more than once during a basketball game so, realistically, nothing should have been remarkable about this play other than the fact that, in KG's mind, this clearly should not have been called a foul (he likes to complain about all the calls made against him).

Except it was remarkable. Why? This free throw attempted by Beal was the first for the Wizards on the night, and it came with 7 minutes left in the 3rd Quarter.

Is that bad?

Well, like my dad always says, it aint good. And it kind of encapsulates what the Wizards are missing in a conveniently short block of text: they have no playmakers. Bradley Beal does not really penetrate as much as he takes jump shots. A.J. Price is a league average player, if that, and while he may be good for a made three pointer or two he also forces countless jumpers, many of which kill possessions before they get a chance to start. (I initially wrote a paragraph bashing A.J. Price but ultimately felt like it was too much... maybe in another post?). The Wizards have Jordan Crawford, but he is harder to figure out Florida's election results, which, you know, is pretty difficult.

A.J. Price? Not impressed

Both Price and Crawford think they are playmakers but statistics and common sense beg to differ. The Wizards are so devoid of a playmaker that Martell Webster decided to break down the Celtics defense himself last night with 40 seconds left in the game, ultimately turning the ball over. I actually like Webster's game, but things that don't involve shooting are not really a part of it. Trevor Ariza, from what he has shown at this point in the season- and really since he stopped playing with Kobe- is not a starting Small Forward. He really hasn't been relevant since he left the Lakers after the 2009 season, as evidenced by the fact that his Wikipedia picture is him with the Lakers, and needs to have his minutes reduced. He plays good defense, sometimes. He also can't play offense. Cent for cent he might be the most overrated player in the NBA, and yet he starts for the 2012-2013 Washington Wizards.

"But," you say, "Martell Webster and Chris Singleton aren't starting Small Forwards either!" loud and obnoxiously and probably during some point in the last paragraph. No, they're definitely not. But that is just the nature of the Wizards this season. None of them is a great option, but- if I can channel my inner Tim McCarver- it's about finding the one who is the least bad. That's Webster. Singleton remains a viable option off the bench for his energy and defensive play, but he is never going to be a guy who plays more than 25 minutes a night. He might have a night like this one against Boston where he scores in double figures with a high shooting percentage with some rebounds, assists, steals and a dunk that makes Kevin Garnett look like a little boy, but not often.

Other than realizing that Trevor Ariza, in two words, isn't good, last night we saw that emergence of Kevin Seraphin. Last night marked the 18th straight game Seraphin scored in double figures, while also pulling down 9 boards. This was soured somewhat by his 6 turnovers and 5 personal fouls, which led to his Arizian plus/minus of -7. He is not a guy who is going to set the world on fire with his defense, but from him the Wizards are mostly looking for offense. He is on the court to score, and he can put it in the basket in a variety of ways. Obviously I am jumping the gun here, but he has the potential to be a more powerful Chris Bosh. He can post you up and score with either hand; he can make the midrange jumper; he can beat you with his quickness; and he can even piss you off until you just want to hit him- à la Kevin Garnett's Technical Foul last night. He doesn't need to light to world on fire on both ends of the floor, he just needs to continue to produce as he has and he becomes one of the five quality Wizards starters with John Wall (out indefinitely), Nenê (out indefinitely), Okafor (not so far), and Bradley Beal (maybe hopefully).

Speaking of Beal, his last matchup against this Celtics team (November 3rd) was a tough one. It was the kind of performance expected from a rookie against a veteran, physical, defensive minded team. Courtney Lee may never come close to the 55 points I scored with him in NCAA 2k7 versus Syracuse, but he plays the caliber defense that made the Celtics want to bring him in to guard Dwyane Wade. Last night Beal played well, part of which is no doubt due to Jason Terry guarding him all night (and actually having to play defense), but most of can be traced back to Beal himself. He was more confident last night than he has been with the Wizards, taking 15 shots, second to Seraphin with 19. He shot a rather pedestrian 40% overall but the fact that he is taking shots and acting like he is one of the Wizards best options, which he became the second he was drafted, is a good sign. He is going to have some hard times this season, probably until John Wall comes back and alleviates the production load for everyone, but the Wizards are going to keep him down in the deep end of the pool until he can learn how to swim.

The Wizards played well enough to win last night for about 3 1/2 Quarters. Then the Celtics turned up the defense pressure, and we came to realize just how much we miss John Wall- as if we didn't know already. The Wizards turned the ball over, they committed some bad fouls, and the Celtics escaped in Overtime. The Wizards played the Eastern Conference's likely No. 2 seed hard twice, coming close to winning both games, which is definitely a positive. But we saw just how flawed our guys are on both ends of the court, and how far away they are from relevancy.

This is the NBA: if you can't compete you might as well tank. And after this 0-3 start we clearly are not contenders. Assuming we stay at the same level, or even improve slightly, we are well on our way to a lottery pick. If we get the right piece we become a playoff team, if we get the wrong piece we fall into a circle of fan hell inhabited only by the Bobcats- where lottery picks go to die. So for now while we wait for our team to improve we can take solace in that we are not, in fact, the Bobcats.

Washington Nationals Shopping List: Offseason 2013

Hey Nationals Fans, this is what is called the Offseason. You know it because the Redskins do it too. It's a period between when the last game is played in one year and the first game is played in the next year. Baseball does it too, you just haven't noticed because normally you haven't cared. You remember Game 5 and part of you gets sick every time you hear the name Daniel Descalso even if you can't quite remember who that is. But just like with Biggie there is "Life After Death" and it is the offseason. This offseason is going to be exciting because the Nationals are contenders and what they do will have significant impacts on the 2013 season. So, loyal reader, put down that carton of Ben & Jerry's that you have been hate eating every night since the middle of October and pay attention. Things are going to change, and you are going to care. It's going to be like when the Redskins drafted RGIII but like 30x less exciting.

In 2012 the Washington Nationals won the National League East and were the first Chocolate City baseball franchise to make the playoffs since 1933. They did this primarily through pitching, fielding, and timely hitting. Something that the San Francisco Giants perfected in October and, along with shrewd coaching, became the main factors that resulted in them holding up the Commissioners trophy through a confetti storm of biblical proportions.

The Nationals have three glaring question marks in terms of personnel decisions this offseason. Adam Laroche, Edwin Jackson, and Sean Burnett are all free agents this offseason and despite the contribution of each to the Nats playoff push it is conceivable that none will return in 2013.

Sean Burnett has been very effective in his four years with the Nationals as a tough lefty-lefty match-up and an unhittable 7th inning guy this past season. With the recent loss of Michael Gonzalez the Nats are well served to bring Burnett and his 2.38 ERA and 9.1 K's per 9 back to sure up the back end of the bullpen. One of the Nationals keys this offseason is to improve a bullpen that was a strength for much of the season- at least before Tyler Clippard went from "Clip and Save" to "Clipboard." Ryan Madson, formerly of the Reds, is a free agent after missing the entire 2012 season rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. If the Nats decided to replace Gonzalez with him he would add another powerful arm and strikeout pitcher (career 7.8 K's per 9) to one of the best bullpens in baseball. 

The case with Edwin Jackson is the easiest. He will not be returning to the Nats next season. As the teams 5th starter he posted solid numbers, throwing almost 190 innings to go along with 10 wins and a 4.03 ERA. But he was relatively ineffective down the stretch run of the season and had zero business coming into Game 5 of the Cardinals series when he was hit like a pinata in Game 3. He was a very serviceable 5th option for the Nats this season, which is a very nice way of saying that he won't be getting a long-term contract from anybody. The Edwin Jackson: Hired Gun story continues. I say he heads up to Toronto to get knocked around by the Yankees, Sox and O's. The Nationals are going to go after another back of the rotation starter this offseason, and the market has some pretty solid options.

The Adam Laroche question is a little more difficult. We offered him a $13.3 million dollar qualifying offer for one year, something he will likely reject (he has until November 9th) in favor of a long-term contract with the Nationals. Based on what he has said he wants to come back to the Nationals, and the Nationals want him back. He hit .271 with 33 home runs and 100 RBI to go along with a Gold Glove and  was, over the course of the season, undoubtably the Nationals best hitter and was a huge factor in 98 wins and a division crown.

He is going to want a 4 year contract at least, probably somewhere in the $40-60 million dollar price range. Resigning him would keep Bryce in Center, and Morse in Left - though he is clearly a DH forced to wear a glove because he plays in the National League. Might the Nats be better served to let Laroche go, move Morse to First where is limited range is not a serious concern (playing First Base is not that difficult to begin with), and go after an outfielder to play either Center or Left while Bryce plays the other?

For fun let's assume that the Nationals pass on signing Laroche and go after an outfielder and a 5th starter to replace Edwin Jackson. Who are some of the players that might make a difference to whether or not 1500 South Captiol Street sees more playoff baseball next year?

Outfielders first:

Josh Hamilton: 0% chance. There are only a few teams who are going to take a shot with him and it will not be the Nats. Too much baggage for Mike Rizzo to shell out a lengthy and expensive contract. The Nationals have quite a bit of money from the new TV contract but promise to be shrewd with this cash, not just burning this money for the thrill of it. Hamilton to the Brewers or Phillies. This contract is going to be big, and the team that gives it to him will be disappointed.

Michael Bourn: Somewhat likely if Laroche leaves (which is to say like 25% IF). He would get $80-100 million long-term and hit lead off. However, speed is overrated in baseball these days and since Bourn doesn't hit for power or drive in runs this is essentially a $100 million dollar contract for someone who can catch flyballs, cutoff balls in the gap, hit .272, and steal bases(?). Seems a little high for someone who isn't going to decide a lot of games unless he scores a run one someone else's hit. Kinda unlike our current leadoff hitter.

Nick Swisher: I don't this is a reality but it's pretty interesting to think about this kind of fit. He brings a fun-loving personality, has playoff experience, would not end up costing all that much, and is a powerful left handed bat that could easily offset the loss of Laroche. But, if you are going to bring in someone so similar to Laroche why not just keep Laroche? Yeah, sorry Swish. I hear there is a lot to do in Cleveland.

B.J. Upton: This seems likely, if not certain, if the Nats part with Laroche. I already have visions of me cursing at the TV while he strikes out 175 times and does the opposite of hustle. I'm already mad. This fantasy sucks. Hopefully the Phillies sign him.

Torii Hunter: A cheap but experienced seat warmer until Brian Goodwin can contribute? Maybe.

Shin Soo Choo/ Jacoby Ellsbury: Both would have to be traded, and likely for pitching. Ellsbury is a free agent after the 2013 season if the Nats want to make a run for him then. Choo isn't really even worth looking at for the price that the Indians would likely want.  

Pitchers:

Zach Grenkie: The Nationals have the money to do this, should they choose to. They won't. Again like Hamilton there are just too many character issues here. He pitched well after being traded to LAA last year, proving that he could still pitch in the American League. Scouts took notice so the AL is where he will likely stay. Expect a big contract from the Angels or the Rangers as they battle to dethrone the A's as champions of the West. 

Kyle Loshe: He turned 34 one month ago. His last two seasons have been statistical outliers from the rest of his relatively mediocre career where his 4.45 ERA dwarfs the 2.86 and 3.39 he put up in '12 and '11. He is a league average pitcher at best (go ahead and look for yourself) who, with Scott Boras as his agent, is going to ask to be paid like a ace or big-time No. 2. I'm not buying this sudden career transcendence as anything other than a byproduct of the Cardinals ability to take league average pitchers and make them good, and sometimes great. The Nationals should take this money that they don't spend on Loshe and bring in more concerts to Nationals Park. I mean I like The Wallflowers and all but let's bring in some bands that might actually make it worth my while to listen to live free music instead of just pulling up YouTube on my iPhone. No one wants to listen to Big & Rich, not even their parents.

Dan Haren: Clearly the Angels are trying to trade him. The National League is a good fit for him and his skill set (very hittable pitches) because the league lacks powerful offenses. That's the best reason I could think of to justify this move so... let's just move on.

Anibal Sanchez: This would be interesting. I think he stays with the Tigers; they have too much money and are not about to watch their pitching strength up and leave. He would be a good signing for the Nats, just pretty unlikely.

Ryan Dempster: Player A: 10-14 W-L, 4.80 ERA, .271 BAA, 1.448 WHIP, 9.4 H/9, WAR .9
                           Player B: 10-10 W-L, 4.08 ERA, .253 BAA, 1.325 WHIP, 8.9 H/9, WAR 1
                           Player C: 9-10 W-L, 4.41 ERA, .253 BAA, 1.450 WHIP, 8.9 H/9, WAR 1.3
                           Player D: 11-11 W-L, 4.61 ERA, .268 BAA, 1.451 WHIP, 9.4 H/9, WAR 1.3 

          

One of these is the career 162 (33 start) avg of Ryan Dempster. Does it really matter which one he is? (He's not B). He did pitch well last year with the Cubs before having all chances at getting a large contract this offseason destroyed in the plains of west Texas. He would be cheap, and given his successes last year the upside here is pretty good. Of these pitchers this is the strongest move that the Nationals can make.

Scott Baker: He missed 2012 with Tommy John and the Twins declined his 2013 option as a result. He would be available to pitch from day one and puts up numbers that are best described as E- Jaxian. This is sort of a last option kind of deal. Everyone else in the bar went home with someone else and you are just staring down someone you really don't want but will take anyway because some is better than none. Scott Baker is last call.

At this point all we can do is wait and see what Laroche wants, and then pray that we don't end up with B.J. Upton. No one should have to suffer like that. So yeah Nationals fans, this is it. Get ready to Wang Chung for the next 4 1/2 months. 

Redskins-Panthers Preview: Or The Case Against Cam Newton

I knew exactly how I was going to start this article. I was going to compare Cam Newton to someone other than RGIII. I was going to show Tebow's stats and how similar they were to Newton's. I was going to say that Newton is a lot like Homeland’s Carrie Mathison in that they are both extremely talented in their line of work but their craziness hinders much of this natural ability. Each even has their own way of coping with their fatal flaw: Carrie cries (like all the time), and Cam likes to self name verb with the best of them. It’s going to be a thing, you have to trust it.

Give 'em Hell, Mike

But nothing felt right. I wanted to avoid comparing him to RGIII because, well, everyone is already doing that. Obviously the comparisons are there: they are both high draft selections, they are both black, and they are both mobile quarterbacks, but really that is where the comparisons should end because they both play different styles of football.

Griffin is a leader, someone who says all the right things at his press conferences and keeps a very even demeanor. He is a dual-threat quarterback in every sense of the term, but a thrower first- even with the Vick-like ability to do this. He is taller than Vick, but is by no means physically imposing, necessitating an avoidance of hard hits. He has "plus" arm strength, but also has shown the ability to lead the league in completion percentage (that is, if his receivers learn to catch the ball). After eight games RGIII looks like the real deal, worthy of the draft picks the Redskins mortgaged to get him from the Rams. The problem is that after eight games last year we were saying the same things about Cam Newton. And now, to be blunt, we're not.

This is what we are saying: Cam Newton is a punk. He is built like Tim Tebow and can probably bench press one and a half Robert Griffin's, but he can't complete two passes in a row. He made the Pro Bowl last season but has played... poorly this season. If the Panthers continue to lose, especially in a similar fashion, his press conferences after games will become required viewing. And not because he gives a great interview. Newton is a freak athlete but his quarterbacking skills are about as raw as a plate of tuna tartare- but nowhere near as delicious. He has a strong arm, but ranks 28th among quarterbacks in completion percentage; he has only thrown 5 touchdown passes on the season- slightly better than Ryan Tannehill (4) and John Skelton (1)- while also throwing 8 picks. To say that he has not played at the elite level of a Pro Bowl quarterback is an understatement. Mike Vick is outplaying him, and Vick is about to lose his job.

To make matters worse for himself, Cam Newton sulks. And it has become so frequent that he is challenging the Internet to create a new meme to commemorate his boyish charm immaturity, and they have accepted. You see, the Internet is a magical place where like-minded Panthers fans can come together and voice their collective displeasure at their hometown team- or at least the 8 or 9 people who care about football and aren't just trying to remember the name of the Plumlee who goes to Duke (Mason is a senior, but Marshall is only a freshman. Four more years! Four more years!). Earlier this season the Internet decided that Robert Griffin was worthy of having a thing, but, unlike Newton, for positive reasons. See, look it's official.

It's funny because it's (probably) true

RGIII is a positive influence on his team; he plays hard, but smart; he actually acts as the leader of his offense instead of just being its best player, and he does and says all the right things. He understands that being a high draft pick does not entitle him to anything, in fact, it necessitates hard work. From what we have seen of Cam Newton, he doesn't appear to understand these things. This season he has played to the level of a below-average NFL quarterback and led his Panthers team to one win through seven games. His Panthers find ways to lose games (see: Bears, Chicago) and instead of accepting that HIS TEAM did not play well enough to win, he points fingers at teammates. It seems reasonable enough that we can point to the "Pay for Play" scandal that marred his season at Auburn and say that he is not mature enough to be a dependable leader in the NFL. But since no one actually knows what is going on in Cam Newton's head other than Cam Newton, all this speculation is, well, speculation. The facts are that Cam Newton has not improved his quarterback play from last year to this year. His legs seem to be working fine- he has 310 yards, 6.1 yards per carry- but he is nowhere near the pace of his somewhat unsustainable 14 rushing TD's last year and has fumbled thrice, one more than all of last year. His accuracy is down, and his 8 INT's put him in the bottom quarter of the league, but the statistic that tells the most about his struggles this season has been QBR. Sidebar: QBR, if you don't know it or understand it, is the greatest metric to measure quarterback performance other than wins (in my opinion). Out of 34 who qualify, Cam Newton ranks 30th in the league. In comparison last year, in his Pro Bowl season, his QBR ranked 17th. This is a metric that would suggest that Cam Newton is nothing better than a league average quarterback unless he can run for 700 yards and 14 TD's to compensate. In a league that has become increasingly pass heavy, that fact that Cam Newton struggles to remain average seems like a significant problem.

If all this Cam Newton trashing seems excessive, it's because it is. Suffice it to say that Robert Griffin III and Cam Newton are different players, something the country will come to realize Sunday afternoon.

On to the game. I am inclined to say that all the Redskins need to do is show up and the Panthers will find a way to lose this game themselves, but it feels as though more should probably be said. The Redskins have a porous defense this year, allowing the 5th most points, and the most passing yards touchdowns. We are going to have to start calling this unit "The Ozone Layer" they are so full of holes. But, like the ozone, it's not all bad. They are significantly better against the run where they rank 21st in rush yards allowed. On the other hand, the Panthers defense is middling. They rank near the middle of the league in every relevant defensive category, possibly foreshadowing a high scoring, offense driven game. Cam Newton is going to have to show up and beat the Redskins through the air for the Panthers to have a chance in this game, which means, for us Redskins fans, we like our chances.

For the Redskins its all about the defense. Can they finish a game? The team has been in position to win games but has fallen short on multiple occasions. That Giants game is still not something we speak about. The injury bug has hit this unit- Brian Orakpo, Adam Carriker- and they have certainly played to the level of their personnel, but if ever there was a game where they can take advantage of an opposing offense this is it. The Panthers are reeling and Cam Newton is struggling, but the team is more talented than their 1-6 record suggests. Look for them to be able to score some points. Ultimately though, RGIII is going to have a monster day. After playing the Steelers last week, the Panthers defense is going to look like a Big East team and the Redskins are going to fly around the field. Plus, its the Panthers. You know that Cam Newton's team is going to implode and he is going to point fingers at anybody but himself. And, most importantly, Newtoning is going to become a thing. You just have to trust it.

WASHINGTON (-3.5) over Carolina
Washington 31 Carolina 17